Three Up, Three Down: Fast Start Preferred

[Seth Stohs]

While teams and players need to remember that a baseball season is a marathon and not a sprint, they also have to remember that player development is not linear and often takes years. 

Image courtesy of Jean Pfiefer (Go4twinkies on Instagram) - photos of Gabriel Gonzalez, Danny DeAndrade

The minor-league season is less than three weeks old. It is far too early to make any grand decisions about a player or prospect at this point. The prospects are just passing 50 plate appearances. If things go well, they are going to get 500-550 plate appearances.

So, to make more of 8-10% of a season’s at-bat is foolish.

So, why would I write this article? Well, first, because it’s all we have to write about at this point.

I think it’s fair to acknowledge that coming into the season there are players who would benefit from getting off to a fast start. Fans who follow prospects know it. National sites that follow prospects know it. If you gave a Player Development director some truth serum, they would acknowledge that there are players for which a fast start is more important than others even if the reality is that they will be patient with most of them.

Why might it be more important for some guys to get off to faster starts? I might argue that a player who is repeating a level needs to come out quickly. Injury might be a reason that a player would want to get off to a fast start, and it might be a primary reason for returning to the same level. It could simply before overall performance, or the organization may have asked a player to work on certain aspects of their game and development.

Below you will find the names of six Twins prospects who, for various reasons I felt needed to have a fast start. Three of them have been able to start well, and three of them who will want to remind themselves that it is a long season and the organization is not going to be giving up on them any time soon.

Three Up
Tanner Schobel (23) – 3B, Wichita Wind Surge
In 2022, Schobel had a huge junior season at Virginia Tech. He hit .362/.445/.689 (1.134) with 18 doubles and 19 homers. The Twins selected him with their second-round pick. He signed quickly and played 28 games in Fort Myers that season. He began the 2023 season in Cedar Rapids, but after posting an OPS of 859 in 77 games, he moved up to Double-A Wichita and ended the year with a .634 in 49 games. At this point, he found himself inside the Top 10 Twins prospects rankings.

As expected, he began the 2024 season in Wichita, and he never really got going. In 122 games, he his .211/.301/.339 (.639) with 20 doubles and 10 homers. So, it was no surprise at all that he returned to Double-A this season. He also fell out of Top 20 Twins prospect rankings. I don’t know if he ever lost any confidence, but a fast start for him in 2025 would be beneficial.   

In his first 11 games of the 2025 season, Schobel hit .310/.400/.500 (.900) with two doubles and two home runs. And yes, those numbers include his 1-for-7, 14-inning game on Tuesday night. Through 10 games, he was hitting .343/.442/.571 (1.013) which is a good reminder of how quickly statistics can change this early in the season.

And again, I stress that it is early and that these stats can change quickly as well. In his pro career, his walk rate is about 11% This season, it is at 16% Maybe more important, he struck out in nearly 24% of his plate appearances in 2024. So far this season, he is striking out just under 12% of the time. Previously, he struck out approximately 18-19% of the time.

Gabriel Gonzalez (21) – OF, Cedar Rapids Kernels
Just before spring training 2024, the Twins traded Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for RHPs Anthony Desclafani, Justin Topa, Darren Bowen, and outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez. Desclafani missed the entire season. Topa hurt his knee and only pitched in three games for the Twins, all on the final weekend of the season. Bowen pitched in Cedar Rapids and that’s where the Twins sent Gonzalez. Coming into the season, Gonzalez was ranked #79 prospect by MLB Pipeline.

In 2023, he hit .348 (.933) in 73 games in Low A and then moved up to High-A Everett where he hit .216 (.677) as a 19-year-old. We ended up ranking Gonzalez in the Top 10.

The Twins sent him to Cedar Rapids where he played in 76 games and hit .255/.327/.379 (.706) with 19 doubles and just four home runs. These are solid numbers, but the burly outfielder lack of home run power surprised a bit. But, he also missed a couple of months of the season with a back injury which certainly would have affected his swing.  He fell to #19 on the Twins Daily prospect rankings coming into this season.

No surprise that Gonzalez was sent back to Cedar Rapids to start the season. He is still about a year and a half younger than league average. In the first Kernels game, he batted eighth. However, he had a good first game and has since moved back to the middle of the lineup. In 11 games, he is hitting .326/.408/.512 (.920) with five doubles and a home run. In his minor-league career, he has typically struck out twice as much as he has walked. So far this season, he has five walks and four strikeouts. Now, he’s only got one home run, but he has really been hitting the ball hard, and he’s been showing power to the opposite field. 

Hopefully he can remain healthy and keep working on his offense. Frankly, that will allow him to keep working on his defense (which has a long ways to go!).

Dylan Questad (20) – RHP, Fort Myers Mighty Mussels 
Questad was the Twins fifth-round draft pick in 223 out of Waterford High School in Wisconsin. He had committed to the University of Arkansas, but the Twins were able to sign him. Like most Twins pitcher draft picks, he didn’t pitch in any games that summer. But there were reports that he was touching 95 with his fastball, and he had always been known for his ability to spin the ball.

While he never quite fit into the Twins Daily Top 20 prospects, he was just outside of it coming into the 2024 season. Questad began the season at Extended Spring Training and then pitched for the FCL Twins. And, frankly, if you just look at the numbers, it didn’t go as well as anyone would have wanted. In 12 games (9 starts), he went 2-4 with a 10.48 ERA. He had 39 strikeouts but also 29 walks in 28 1/3 innings. He also gave up 35 hits. That’s a 2.26 WHIP.

Certainly, a case could have been made to send him back to the FCL for another season. But that’s where it is important to remember that he was developing, growing, learning and working on thing during the FCL season, but then at “Instructs” and again at pitching camps. He went to Fort Myers very early. The work and the learning continued, and based on his start to this 2025 season, it has begun to pay off. 

In his season debut for the Mighty Mussels against the Tampa Tarpons (Yankees), he tossed five shutout innings. He gave up just one hit and one walk, and he had eight strikeouts. Definitely an encouraging start. He pitched on Tuesday night against Bradenton. The Twins had Christian MacLeod, Pierson Ohl and Brock Stewart throw the first six innings on rehab assignments. Questad came in to start the seventh inning of a 1-0 game. He proceeded to throw three scoreless, no-hit innings and was credited with the Save. He walked two and had four strikeouts.

Eight scoreless, one-hit innings with three walks and 12 strikeouts is pretty good on its own, but he looks the part on the mound. He throws a fastball between 91 and 95 (average 93.4). He has a sharp slider between 83 and 86 mph (average 84.0). He also has a slow curveball that sits 75 to 77 mph (average 75.9). He also throws some changeups in the low-80s, approximately 9 mph slower than the fastball. While I have watched probably six of his eight innings online, Statcast shows that he’s got a slider and a cutter. On average the cutter is 2 mph faster with less break.

A 20-year-old starting pitcher prospect who hits 95 with the fastball and has as many as five pitches with potential. That’s exciting. The Twins saw the progress, but regardless of where he began this season, a good start was important just for him to believe in himself and to experience actual success on the mound.

Three Down
Kala’i Rosario (22) – OF, Wichita Wind Surge
Rosario was the Twins fifth-round draft pick in the abbreviated 2020 MLB draft out of high school in Hawaii. Fellow 2020 prep pick Marco Raya was added to the Twins 40-man roster in November. While there was some speculation, Rosario was not added to the 40-man roster. There was concern that the slugger could be selected. In 2023, he had led the Midwest League in home runs and RBI and was named league MVP. He went to the Arizona Fall League and led the league in home runs.

He moved up to Double-A Wichita in 2024. In 67 games, he hit .235/.321/.405 (.726) with 19 doubles and eight home runs. The numbers were obviously down since he missed about half of the season due to a fractured elbow. He was able to return and did show some power. He went to the AFL again. Fortunately, for the Twins, Rosario went unselected in the Rule 5 draft and remains in the organization.

But due to the injury and lost time, it’s no surprise that he was sent back to Wichita to start this season. Even this year, he is over two years younger than the league average. 

Wichita played 14 innings on Tuesday night. Rosario went 2-for-6 to raise his slash line to .132/.171/.211 (.382) with one home run. A slow start is a slow start and in general there isn’t reason to be too worried about a rough nine or 10 games. However, in his 10 games, he has 41 plate appearances and already has 21 strikeouts (51%). His strikeout rate in Double-A last year was 30.4%, very similar to his K-Rate in previous seasons.

Obviously, it is pretty clear that Rosario will need to put the ball in play more consistently. He’s still so young. He’ll keep working, and patience will be very important.

Danny De Andrade (21) – IF, Cedar Rapids Kernels
Just over one year ago, De Andrade was the primary shortstop for the Kernels. He was about to turn 20. He was batting second or third in the team’s lineup. He hit a ground ball and hustled down the line in an attempt to beat the throw. When he got to the base, his ankle twisted and he was in pain. It was something he hadn’t experienced before. A few days later, he returned to the Kernels lineup but he had another ankle injury in mid-May which proved to be much more serious. In fact, he didn’t play again the rest of the season.

In his 29 games, he hit .243/.333/.359 (.693) with six doubles and two homers. Again, not bad numbers. He struck out just about 17% of the time. No real concerns.

Healthy again, De Andrade is back in Cedar Rapids. He just turned 21 years old a week ago. He is one of eight or nine other Top 30 Twins prospects on the current Kernels roster. While shortstop was his last year at this time, this year, Kaelen Culpepper, Brandon Winokur and Kyle DeBarge have played shortstop too. De Andrade has made three starts each at second base, third base and DH. He hasn’t yet played shortstop.     

On Tuesday night, he went 0-for-4 with two walks. Through 11 games, he is hitting .189/.302/.270 (.572) with three doubles. He has a good approach at the plate. He’s playing good defense. The organization knows what he can do, so he is in no danger. I’m just sure that after missing so much time last year, he would have loved to start out hot this spring. He has been a borderline Top 10 Twins prospect at times, and right now finds himself just outside of the Top 20, likely due to missing time.

Jose Rodriguez (19) – OF, Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Rodriguez entered the scene when he signed with the team in January of 2022. He spent that summer in the DSL. In 55 games, he hit .289/.361/.605 (.966) with 15 doubles and 13 home runs. He put himself into Top 20 Twins prospect rankings with that performance, specifically the home runs.

He came to the States in 2023 and played in the FCL. He was solid, very good when you compare him to most players that come to the States and play in the FCL for the first time. He hit .262 (.737) with 10 doubles and six homers. Good enough that he began the 2024 season with the full-season Mussels. In 43 games, he hit .178/.235/.319 (.554) with eight doubles and five home runs. And, as you can see, he missed a lot of time due to injury.

Still 19, of course he returned to the Florida State League, and certainly he would want to get off to a fast start. On Tuesday night, he played left field and went 0-for-3 with a walk and two strikeouts. In his 10 games, he is hitting .132/.175/.289 (.464) with a double, triple and homer. He is incredibly aggressive at the plate. His walk rate has dropped from 9.6% in the DSL in 2022 to 8.6% to 6.7%, and this season, it is currently 2.8% this season. In addition, his strikeout rate in the two Complex leagues was 24% and 20%. It has been over 36% in his time with the Mussels. 

Rodriguez is a big man who takes a big swing and has tremendous power potential. He actually is a solid athlete with decent speed considering how big he is. The Twins need to remain patient, and the same can be said for Rodriguez. Hopefully at some point soon the game will slow down a bit for him, the quality of plate appearance improves, and he starts getting better counts.

Disclaimer: Just another reminder that 10 games is far too small of a sample size to make too much out of it. Ten games from now, it’s possible that this could be a completely different list.

Let me know what you think. Feel free to ask questions.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

I don't think there is a legit 3b prospect in St. Paul....

I'd still promote DeAndrade and free up SS in A ball....

I get both those suggestions are aggressive, but they need a backup SS in Minnesota and a healthy 3b also.... Though I think Lee is that 3b, in not certain he'll hit enough. 

[Mike Sixel]

Also, love, love, this kind of content.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Really like this stuff Seth.  I don't know that every ten days is enough time for you to update the list, but an occasional "stock up - stock down" article like this is terrific.  There are many prospects that are unknown by average fans (especially in the lowest levels) and having an idea of how they are doing over periodic intervals is really fascinating. 

With regard to the content itself, I sure hope you are right about Schobel and Gonzalez.  We could use those guys, whether in the majors or as trade capital. 

Random thought:  You could alternate between doing a hitters version and a pitchers version. 

[Blyleven2011]

Thanks Seth  , articles like this are welcomed ...

10 to 12 games is a small sample size  , in the next 10 to 12 games , these same players could turn the tables the opposite way ...

Just saying , it could happen  ...

Always want our prospects to do well and be promoted to the next level  ...

[bean5302]

I think there's always a grace period after a promotion. Sometimes it takes a little bit to get used to the new situation. What used to be EZ mode now requires more focus, and if the player has the talent, they'll show it.

The big 2 for the Twins are obviously Jenkins who is still on the IL (hopefully, he's starting to get closer to a return) and Emma who is just holding his head above water at AAA. I like the dropping K rate for Emma, but the power absolutely needs to show up sooner than later. He's now at 86 PA at AAA with only 1 HR between last year and this year. 

Each in their 3rd go 'round at their level Schobel (AA) and Gonzalez (A+) could do quite a bit to rebuild their stock this year. Schobel needs to make the most of his athleticism, but if he can keep the K rate low, he could be projectable despite the lighter power potential. Gonzalez is going to need to add power as a corner outfielder with a stout build. There's no way he hasn't added at least 40lbs to his 5'11" 165lb listed frame, and that's not going to be all muscle. If Gonzalez wants to play at 2-bills plus, he'll need to hit for power.

[PDX Twin]

Quote

In his season debut for the Mighty Mussels against the Tampa Tarpons 

I read this as "the Tarpa Tampons." Perhaps new glasses are in order...

[shimrod]

49 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

I read this as "the Tarpa Tampons." Perhaps new glasses are in order...

NOW how many fingers am I holding up?

[FlyingFinn]

Great article Seth!

Very excited about Questad's start to the season. Schobel would have to continue this all year and maybe last year was an isolated bad year. Rosario and Gonzalez, I'm just not excited about. Their bats are inconsistent (Gonzalez more than Rosario) and I don't think they are very good on D or have much speed. De Andrade - I love great gloves at SS who can hit at all. If he's not even playing SS now, I drop him from my top 10 last year to not even ranked now. He's the one I'm most disappointed in. Rodriguez is really young yet so give him time.

[twinstalker]

Thanks, Seth, it's a good and relevant article, if 10-12 games can ever be relevant.

I think one in each group is going to regress significantly (with qualifications),  Schobel should be at AAA in his development.  Losing a year like 2024 for him pretty much told us all we'll ever need to know, though the "why" is still missing.  I suspect there's an exit velocity problem (Statcast data is not available from A+ and AA), but the optimist might hope there was an injury. 

The numbers in 2024 were so bad in a hitters park that the first thought is must strike out a ton.  But his first full season, across A+ and AA, he struck out at a rate of 18.8%.  I would have guessed based on his 2024 slash line that the 2023 rate would have been about 25% or worse.  In 2024 during a really bad season for him, Schobel's K-rate increased to 23.8%.  That 5 points isn't all that common.  It's troubling.

As some may know but many don't or simply ignore, a strikeout rate in the neighborhood of 25% is a bad sign for someone who isn't an obvious power hitter.  The increase is surprising, and I haven't seen an increase like this where it isn't troublesome.  Foremost, the year before (2023) Schobel was a year younger playing at A+.  He should have matured over the next year to keep the rate constant.  Further, in 2023 he spent a good amount of time at AA and K'd at 19.3%, which seems very plausible from his 2023 A+ rate of 18.4%.  A move up in the same year, you'll strike out more.

It's possible the Twins tried to tinker with his swing.  To me that makes some sense because they really seem to not have a grasp on hitting development.  I don't either, but it's not my job.  Really, the only other things that make sense are poor exit velocities or unusually low BABIP in 2024.  In 2023 at A+ Schobel's BABIP was .319.  Unlike pitchers who all hover around .300 on average, it's not immediately clear what Schobel should be at, but we see his batting average from that was .288.  I would not assume that .319 is a representative BABIP for Schobel, so I also would not conclude that a .288 average is representative.

In 2024 Schobel's BABIP was all the way down to .265 at AA.  That 54 point drop will likely drop a normal hitter like Schobel down 30-40 points in batting average itself.  His strikeout rate increasing by .050 will drop it another 40 points, and it's no surprise that his .288 batting average at A+ in 2023 dropped to .211 at AA in 2024.

So the question is: was 2024 an anomaly or was 2023, or was it a little of both?  What I notice in all his season/levels is that the highest BABIP Schobel had other than that .319 in 2023 A+ was a .303 in 2022 low A.  Others were:  .250 (2022 FCL 16 PAs) and .277 (AA promotion in 2023).  It's hard to tell, but I'm not optimistic that Schobel hit into much bad luck compared to normal last year.

This year he's started with a .324 BABIP and 14.0% K-rate in his first 50 PAs.  I don't doubt he'll do better this year at AA, but his current .310/.400/.500 slash seems destined to go down at least somewhat.

Danny Andrade.  i won't get into the detail, but I've followed De Andrade closely since his signing.  I've projected him to be the shortstop that takes over for Correa.  He's been really young for his level prior to this season, and he's held his own with very good fielding, from what I understand.  He started last year as the only real shortstop prospect in the full-season system after Brooks Lee.  He was coming off a really good age 19 season at Fort Myers, where his .244/.354/.396 is underrated due to the park and league.  His ISO was better than Jason Kubel's there the year prior to his 1.120 OPS season at New Britain AA.  De Andrade was a year ahead of Kubel age-wise (adjusted for the FSL level change), and he's a legit shortstop. 

The issue with DDA is his K-rate of 21.7% in 2023, which is too high for a non-power guy hoping to make a run at the bigs.  Kubel's (10.2 % at low A) was much lower, but also it was a different time.  Plus there's the flood of shortstops and shortstop pretenders on his own team now, taking his development time and maybe tanking his confidence.  K. Culpepper, at least, should get promoted.  I personally don't think DeBarge is worthy of his draft status, but he'll get every opportunity.  Winokur will never be a shortstop, so I don't know why they're giving him run there.  If DDA is not at SS, I don't see a real path for him.  And to differ with Seth a bit, his K-rate is 20.0% at A+ (combined), and yeah, that's still a little reason for concern.  A minor league with little power K'ing at 20% is a bit of a concern, especially now that his age vs level isn't what it was at the beginning of last year.

This started as an argument against him being included in the "down," but I'm struggling right now with his overall situation.  I think it will get better as the Twins learn DeBarge isn't as good as they'd hoped.  DeBarge is 9 months older.  We'll see.  I don't think I'm wrong on DeBarge, but his early K rate of 14.3% keeps him in the SS photo.  Of course, I think college first round picks should be good enough to be playing AA in their first full season, and he struggled just to get through low A without a promotion to A+ last year.

 

[Guest]

Thank you for the picture caption explaining who we are seeing.👍

[DocBauer]

It's a good list, Seth, and I sure can't argue with it. But a list like this is interesting when you have a pair of 19yo ish kids on the same list like Questad and J Rodriguez but they are in different categories.

I thought Schobel's poor performance on his jump to AA was really disappointing. I've questioned the power jump his last year in college, but I didn't expect such a painful performance when he arrived at Wichita. I had soured on him somewhat. Really nice to see a good start to 2025 for him! 

 

Gonzalez was rated a little too high, IMO, when the Twins acquired him. Then he had a bad year, though injury does seem to have been a factor. The good start gives me optimism that the bat and power potential might yet play. And he is still really young. Despite decent speed and a strong arm, I'm still worried about his defense. It's INCREDIBLY unfair to watch a kid ONE TIME in a ST game with wind and a brilliant sky and make a determination...think it was against the Pirates...but he seemed to have a hard time tracking the ball. But again, totally unfair to form a negative opinion on a young kid immediately. 

Honestly, I was a bit surprised that Questad jumped to A ball instead of going back to the FCL. Other than good K numbers, he just wasn't very good in 2024. A return to the FCL made sense to me, and that's OK for a young HS pitcher still growing and adjusting. The improvement he's made in the offseason has been amazing considering his early results. 

I still have faith in Rosario. He's not fast, but he's not completely lead-footed either from what I hear, and he's reportedly got a good arm. His AFL performance after missing so much time was encouraging as his power dropped, but I believe his AVG and OB% was better. I had hoped that would be a springboard for a good 2025. So far...not so good. But i keep reflecting on his very good 2023 at A+ and think there's still something THERE despite the slow start so far this season. Again, it's still early.

I have a lot of faith in DeAndrade. He was only barely 20yo at A+ to begin 2024. And then he got hurt. Hurt bad enough that he never appeared in the AFL following the season. Unfortunately, it makes sense as young as he is, coming off missing so much time, that he began in CR again. The "problem" is having too many SS options at CR to play everyone as much at SS as you really want to. OBVIOUSLY you always move guys around to keep them playing and expose them to other future positions. But the key is him being healthy for 2025 and in the lineup regardless of having a fixed position.

J Rodriguez has been a bit of a disappointment so far. After he tore up the DSL, and had a solid 2023 I thought he might be ready to bloom in 2024. He didn't. And he's off to a rough start for this season. But again, one more time, it's such a SSS that he might get untracked over the next few weeks. Mercedes did that, more or less, last season and hopefully J-Rod will do the same.

GUILTY PLEASURE FOR A FAST START;

I was really hoping Eeles would have a fast start for 2025 and make the Twins regret not bringing him to ST. Then I found out he was have a cartilage procedure that we all hope is minor and he'll be back soon.

But I was ALSO hoping for a fast start for McCusker. IMO, when you scout and draft players, or when your scouts go out and find Independent League players with potential, to "fill in" MILB roster needs and find someone who has talent, you DON'T IGNORE THEM just because they might be a bit older. McCusker might not be a MLB player. He might not be a finished prospect at 27yo at AAA, and he might never be anything but a RH occasional player. But then again, MAYBE he's a powerful RH bat against LHP that doesn't suck against RHP. MAYBE he's a solid bench player if nothing else. But I keep thinking about past Twins like Lew Ford. What if you get a couple good seasons from someone? What about Kiersey not setting the world on fire so far, but playing good defense, running the bases, and MAYBE hitting well and being a solid ML player?

Average players don't make a great team. But "bench" players can sometimes be very good additions to a team. 

[Chad Freyer]

===`

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

very excited about Questad's start to the season.

I am too, and he is a player I knew nothing about previous to this article. Good stuff, Seth! As you wrote:

A 20-year-old starting pitcher prospect who hits 95 with the fastball and has as many as five pitches with potential. That’s exciting. 

Man, that is VERY exciting indeed. This much-hyped pitching pipeline is looking better and better. 

[Jasper]

Great article Seth, fun to hear about the young upcomers.

[Linus]

Questeds start is encouraging. The rest of the list doesn’t excite me much. Rosario and Gonzalez have a similar challenge - they have to hit at a very high level as they are challenged defensively.  Actually Gonzalez is essentially a DH as he is borderline unusable in the field. I guess we know how the Twins view DeAndrade as he is fourth in line for SS reps in A ball.