Will the Twins Ever Invest in Size at First Base?

[HerbieFan]

Better question might be whether they will invest in 1B AT ALL.

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, gman said:

Brandon Winokur is big enough to play 1st base. It'll be interesting to see if he play significant games at Witchita this year, of course he has to get through Cedar Rapids first.

I 2nd your idea! Big kid that is a great athlete!

[tony&rodney]

9 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

There is some foot work that needs to be taught but again shouldn't be that difficult to grasp the concept. 

I really want to agree with your statement but when we watch the Twins first basemen it might be that is difficult for some players.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, gman said:

Brandon Winokur is big enough to play 1st base. It'll be interesting to see if he play significant games at Witchita this year, of course he has to get through Cedar Rapids first.

Winokur is super athletic. He has a ton of skills to learn yet but if he can hit at the MLB level we should expect he settles at shortstop, centerfield, or third base. 

[IndianaTwin]

9 hours ago, ashbury said:

Base Inches Per Game At First is the analytics stat that finally wins over the average fan!

Good old BIPGAF.

I once tried to get my fantasy league to add (Home Runs + Balks + Errors)/K as a pitching category, just for the acronym, but they wouldn’t bite. 

[Jocko87]

9 hours ago, stringer bell said:

It’s really hard to measure the impact of having an extra couple inches in reach at first, but it has to make some difference. 

Umpiring last year I had a 13u team from Colorado with a 6'6 13 year old playing first base. Normally a kid this size is not comfortable with his feet but this kid was able to move. Couldn't really hit but was pretty natural at first base.

Had the team 3-4 times and of course started chatting with the coaches as his movement stood out. Turns out, he's already on the national basketball landscape and slated for Duke or something in a couple years. Talented athlete.

At this level, I worked out that he was worth more than a full stride over another appropriately sized 13 yo as a first baseman. It was stunning how my internal clock was completely worthless calling plays at first. I'd think a kid was going to be safe by two steps and this California condor would reach out to catch the ball. Out.

It was memorable in that it was odd. He was a mismatch for the level.

I have a hard time believing that at the pro level, a few inches of height is better than good technique. So many times I see a close call and a first baseman not fully stretched to make the catch.

I'd rather see more coaching to catch at the soonest point than worrying about height. It's a huge advantage to be tall, but you have to use it.

[Bodie]

20 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

This is part of what makes it matter so much less than it used to. Years ago, with less predictable surfaces, putting the ball on the ground was a major risk. Throws would have to err on the high side and a tall dude mattered a lot.

Now that the long hop is mainstream and a predictable hop is almost assured with manicured fields slightly different skills play. Correa and other infielders can throw it much harder with less risk and height isn't a limiting factor.

Anyone (nearly) can make the routine plays.  A litteral garbage can (sans lid of course) would collect most of Correa's throws.

Unfortunately not everyone else (anyone else?) makes life as easy as Correa. We have a 2B (projected, at least part-time) who would give the Jolly Green Giant fits even if he had a butterfly net! (Usable due to a certain IF's "sterling" arm strength, again this projected regular).

Good 1B display thier utility on the tough 1-2% of plays that separate them from the pack.  Mark Grace didn't make his name as.an elite defensive 1B taking routine throws from Ryne Sandberg, he made it coralling Shawon Dunston's "routine" throws.

[Riverbrian]

 Necessity is the mother of invention.

Freddie Freeman and Pete Alonso drafted and developed as a 1B only is fairly rare. When you look at the primary 1B around the league you see a bunch of players who moved to 1B due to necessity when considering the context of the current team. As Jose Altuve learns to play LF this year... it's important to note that players move around all the time due to necessity and 1B is busy spot to slide into. 

Let's look at the projected primary 1B around the league: 

1B exclusive throughout development:

Red Sox - Triston Cases

Royals - Vinnie Pasquantino

Astros - Christian Walker - Primarily 1B but he did spend 2016 playing OF exclusively in Norfolk. Chris Davis was manning 1B at the big league level. Orioles released him - D-Backs picked him up for free at age 27 after the Reds claimed him and released him. 

Angels - Nolan Schanuel

Yankees - Paul Goldschimdt

 

Converted from other positions: 

A's - Tyler Soderstrom - Drafted as a Catcher in 2020. Played 1B and C almost equal amounts in the minors. 

Orioles - Ryan Mountcastle - SS and 3B early minors - Hit the big leagues as an OF

White Sox - Andrew Vaughn - Primarily 1B in the minors - Played OF First 3 years in the majors due to the presence of Jose Abreu. White Sox won the AL Central with Vaughn as the primary LF so it worked out OK. Moved back to 1B after Abreu moved on. 

Guardians - Carlos Santana - Catcher for the first 4 years of his MLB career - Became the primary 1B in his 5th year at the age of 28. 

Tigers - Colt Keith - Broke in at 2B in the Major last year - Has never played 1B in his professional career. 

Mariners - Luke Raley - Played mostly OF - Although he has played some 1B almost every year in addition to OF in the minors and majors. 

Rays - Yandy Diaz - Primarily 3B - Played 3B, 2B and OF in the minors - Didn't become a primary until age 29. Did some light dabbling at 1B during age 26, 27 and 28 years. 

Rangers - Jake Burger - Played 3B - The Marlins were the first team to give him a 1B glove last year at age 28. 

Jays - Vlad Jr. - Played 3B exclusively in the minors and 1st year in the majors. 

That's just the American League - I can keep going and include the National League... but it will look the same.

Necessity is the mother of invention. If you want a big body 6-3 Goldschmidt type 1B playing for you. It would be best if you draft and develop a guy like that. Otherwise the hole will be filled as necessity dictates... height be damned. 

 

[DJL44]

21 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

That clear plan for the future SHOULD be Royce Lewis. Would LOVE to see the IF settle in on Lewis at 1B, Keaschall at 2B, Lee at 3B & Correa at SS for the next 2-4 years.  

Lee has less range than Lewis, runs slower and has a weaker arm. It might be Brooks Lee who ends up at 1B.

I still think the solution to having two starting-caliber 3B is to trade one of them for something else.

[LambchoP]

With infielders like Keaschal, Winokur and Eeles coming up, I think Royce Lewis will be our long term first baseman. He's one of the few guys that has the right bat to profile there. If Lee can hit enough, it would open up third base for him. That way Keaschal can cover second base with Correa at short. I think that sounds like a good infield for a lot of years. We will need a shortstop of the future to take over after Correa, but with how this organization likes to draft shortstops I'm sure we'll find one 

[bean5302]

Taller players will generally have a longer reach. How many times will a 1" greater reach prevent an error or result in an out? Once per year, maybe?

UZR/150 for all 28 players with 1,000+ innings at 1B in the past two years.
Highest = +3.7 (6'1" Michael Bush)
Lowest = -5.3 (6'0" Spencer Torkleson)

#2 - 6'4"
#3 - 6'0"
#4 - 6'0"

There is no merit in selecting "tall" players for 1B in terms of defensive value.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

 

I'm getting the feeling that in college you were probably a mediocre 1B on defense and therefore can easily proclaim that 1B being a defensive position is utterly ridiculous.  I wonder what MLB players would say about that.

LOL, my issue in college (Juco) wasn't defensive, it was hitting a fastball, probably a curve as well but I didn't see many of those. In reality I was given too many chances because I was a very good (Not great) defensive of first baseman, I pretty much could scoop anything and the other infielders loved throwing to me because they had the confidence I would help them out, but my bat hurt my team more than my fielding helped. By the end of my second year I had lost my job to a player that wasn't a good fielder but was much better hitter than me.

[Seth Stohs]

They invested $2.75 million on Aaron Sabato in 2020. 

I have to wonder about this though... 

A taller 1B is going to catch the throws and be able to stay on the base an extra 5-6 inches. Comes in handy once in a while. 

A "shorter" 1B  has a lower center of gravity. Would a shorter player be better at scooping balls in the dirt? Carlos Santana was so good at that last year. Comes in handy at least once a game, probably more. 

And, obviously there is some middle ground there, just depends on the individual. 

[stringer bell]

As far as scooping low throws, being a former catcher (like Santana, Morneau and Mauer) would seem to be of more benefit than height. Mauer played first a bit until the head injury forced him out from behind the plate, but I think he was very good when moved to first. At more than 6'4" he had the size and reach to steal a few outs, as well. 

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Lee has less range than Lewis, runs slower and has a weaker arm. It might be Brooks Lee who ends up at 1B.

I still think the solution to having two starting-caliber 3B is to trade one of them for something else.

And today we see once again the Lewis would most likely be best served playing a spot which requires the least amount of wear on a fragile body.  Why trade one of your two starting-caliber for something else when that something else might well be someone to fill a spot that you could move one of them to.  Actually I'm not totally against Lee being the guy who ends up at 1B but I think he presents more options in other positions that Lewis does.  The position I'm most interested in seeing Lewis occupy is "Activated from Injured List."

 

[dxpavelka]

On 3/15/2025 at 12:56 PM, old nurse said:

So where is the statistical analysis of size mattering for 1b play? It would take a fairly large sample size. 

You would think that if such a thing existed it'd be easy to find.....

[David HK]

On 3/16/2025 at 3:47 AM, gman said:

Brandon Winokur is big enough to play 1st base. It'll be interesting to see if he play significant games at Witchita this year, of course he has to get through Cedar Rapids first.

He's the first guy I thought of.  McCusker's got that Richie Sexon prototype size, too.

Or maybe Eeles..... 😅

[DJL44]

23 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

And today we see once again the Lewis would most likely be best served playing a spot which requires the least amount of wear on a fragile body.  

I don't think they want to make him a full-time DH.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I don't think they want to make him a full-time DH.

I don't think they do either.  Just not sure it's wise not to.  The difference between him and Buxton is that when Buxton does play defense he can do so at a world class level.  Lewis, not so much.