The Model for a 90-Win Twins Team This Year (Even with Injuries)

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Nick addresses the primary issues.  90 wins is possible IF:
1) The big 3 SP stay healthy enough to make 25 starts each.
2) The mixture of SWR, Paddack, Festa, and Matthews pitch close to SP4/SP5 quality.
3) Correa, Buxton, Lewis stay healthy enough to play 125 games each.
4) Larnach, Wallner, Castro, Jeffers, Miranda all have OPS+ over 100

There are a lot of IFs, but nothing that unattainable.  I think the Twins margin for error right now is extremely small.  If any of of the above mentioned items do not happen, the Twins chances for 80 wins (much less 90) drop exceedingly fast.

I've been working out a similar list to this and the article lately.  The most important thing about it is that not everything is required, just enough of each category to add up to consistently play well.

My version is grouped in 3's, maybe influenced by the big three, maybe not.

1-The big three stay healthy and productive.

2-Three rotation stalwarts for the entire season

3-Three bullpen stalwarts for the entire season

4-Three young hitters take a significant step forward

I've left names out on purpose.  Other than the big three, any can fill almost any spot.  It doesn't necessarily have to be the same guy the entire season.  Should one of the current top three starting pitchers goes down and SWR/Festa/Zebby steps in with minimal disruption, that counts.  One of the younger hitters could step into a big three role.  That would count for item 1 and 4. 

My totally made up metric tracks roughly with the number of wins.  If by some miracle they hit all 12, 120 wins (ok, maybe not).  But 8-9 of these categories checked off is an easy 90 wins.  If they only get 6-7, 80 wins is possible.  It's volatile, but there is significant upside.

Should one of these categories have zero items checked, it would completely alter the math but I'm willing to take that chance.

This is also a great recipe to take to the post season.  If all 12 items are hitting together, they can play at a 100+ win pace.

[DocBauer]

I like the starting staff and the pen a lot, based on current construction. But what's odd to me is that I can like what I see even knowing there's probably a couple of better arms, with more upside, that might not be on the opening day roster. (Festa and Varland for example).

I think the question comes down to the quality of the offense. Not saying they WILL, but Wallner and Lewis each have 30 HR potential. And while he almost certainly won't play enough games to do it, Buxton will probably be on a 30 HR pace and settle for around 18-20. Correa is a 20 HR type of hitter and great hitter overall. Jeffers stroked 20 bombs in 2024 while on a time share at catcher and occasional DH appearances. Even if the new and improved Larnach never hits 20 bombs, he's good for upper teens. Castro has 1 1/2 healthy seasons out of 2 with a .750 OPS as a fill in and table setter 10th man. 

The question then becomes what do they get out of 2B, 1B, and DH?  Or, in other words, can Lee take over 2B and produce anywhere as hoped? How well does Miranda produce if he gets a full season? Is there any chance that the France we signed is anything like the version he showed in 2021-22? Or maybe the version that was pretty good for the first couple of months in 2024?

The Twins offense ranked high in 2024 in regard to total run production. The problem was...as detailed well by @Muppet...the run scoring was inconsistent. That's why we have new hitting coaches this season. The potential to have a pretty good offense is actually there. I'm worried they missed an opportunity by not adding a good bat this offseason due to the budget constraints. Maybe the new owners allow for a mid season addition. Maybe Rodriguez and/or Keaschall come up to help deepen and spark thr offense at some point.

But with the pitching they have, it's not as if they have a lousy offense, or no growth potential. What they need...other than health...is an offense that doesn't run so hot and cold.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

The Twins were 13-58 last season when scoring less than 4 runs. That means they were 69-22 when they scored at least 4 runs. 

4 runs is NOT a huge number, obviously. 

 

 

Are you inferring, somebody should be trying to add a better than average bat to the line-up? …….,I hope so

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Are you inferring, somebody should be trying to add a better than average bat to the line-up? …….,I hope so

That or a few things...

1) Change the philosophy to bring in more contact. It sounds like that focus is there this spring. We'll see if it works.

2) Keep the main guys (Lewis/Correa/Buxton) in the lineup more than last year

3) Be ready to bring up Rodriguez/Keaschall when they are ready

4) Be aggressive before the July deadline.

 

But yes, agreed. The pitching is good, and the offense doesn't HAVE to be the 27 Yankees for them to win a bunch of games.

[ashbury]

This year, like many under the FalVine regime, I see a very wide range of possible outcomes.  By contrast, teams like the White Sox are a potential 100-loss team with zero chance of achieving 100 wins, while the Dodgers are a potential 100-win team with zero chance of suffering 100 losses.  With these Twins, I think either outcome could occur - if everything falls right into place with no key injuries to veterans and with some breakthroughs by the young core we've been waiting on they could match the 2019 win total and breeze into the post-season, while lengthy IL stints for each of the Usual Suspects and continued stall-outs or regressions of the young'uns could bring us back to Total System Failure times again.  Put me down for 78 wins, but I'm prepared to be way off by season's end.

[Cris E]

6 hours ago, Muppet said:

Looking at just 1 run games. The Twins had 15, all of which they lost. The Guardians had 11 and lost all of theirs too. The Tigers had 21 1-run games but they won 3 of theirs. Had the Twins won just one of theirs, they would have made the playoffs (EDIT... Royals tied for second, not the Twins... whoops). 

What....

EDIT:  Do you mean Games Where They Only Scored One Run?  Because almost no one wins those on any team at any point in the past hundred years. Also, "1 run games" is understood to be "games decided by one run". 

 

[Cris E]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

That or a few things...

1) Change the philosophy to bring in more contact. It sounds like that focus is there this spring. We'll see if it works.

2) Keep the main guys (Lewis/Correa/Buxton) in the lineup more than last year

3) Be ready to bring up Rodriguez/Keaschall when they are ready

4) Be aggressive before the July deadline.

 

But yes, agreed. The pitching is good, and the offense doesn't HAVE to be the 27 Yankees for them to win a bunch of games.

In addition I'd be much more aggressive about sending struggling guys down to St Paul to work on stuff rather than having them continue to play badly or just sit around and stew. I'd also like to see more use of where Vasquez saw his offseason coach at Driveline for a tuneup in June, or at least going back to tape to see what was working rather than believing so strongly in whatever you've committed to that's stopped working.

[Muppet]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

What....

EDIT:  Do you mean Games Where They Only Scored One Run?  Because almost no one wins those on any team at any point in the past hundred years. Also, "1 run games" is understood to be "games decided by one run". 

 

Yes. Sorry for confusion. Games where they only score one run. The points being that offense isn't giving pitching the chance to win, AND they aren't even winning the low percentage of those games say... 10%.. that might make a difference in the final standings. 1-0 games are not likely, but they do sometimes happen to other teams. 

[Maybe Next Year]

You want a model for 90 wins? Fire Baldelli and get somebody in there that has a consistent daily lineup of players and some baseball sense instead of his blankety blank analytics. Without consistency the younger players will never develop. By constantly changing the lineup because of lefty righty pitching matchups the younger players will never develop. By constantly pinch hitting for younger players in scoring situations the younger players will never develop. By pulling pitchers after 4-5 innings after 60-70 pitches and 0-2 runs you will never develop a decent pitching staff. Sorry but Baldelli is the biggest obstacle to a 90 win season. 

 

[Aerodeliria]

7 hours ago, amjgt said:

Does OAA take into account throwing out runners?

It looks to me it's just dealing with fielding of batted balls. 

It's a good question. The Twins booted some balls, but throwing (especially when Correa was absent) was not very good. I'd like to know the answer to this question....

[Blyleven2011]

Defining quality hitting from the twins batters is very hard to do , yes they get an occasional solo homerun , some hits and doubles but what good is it if they are left stranded ...

I define a hitter that can get on base and ignite an offense ( oh where have you gone lead off spark ) , hitting in the pressure situations with runners moving up , hitting in the clutch and driving in runs ...

Every win matters from April to September to even consider achieving  90 wins , they can't wait for the second half to turn on the afterburners  , you have to do it all year  ...

Can the twins improve enough with a new hitting coach with maybe a different philosophy on hitting or will they continue to follow falvey and rocco's  philosophy and analytics  ...

It isn't going to be easy but I at least hope it's more consistent  and exciting  , I don't want to be watching or listening with runners in scoring position  and we fail to scratch runs across  ...

[amjgt]

2 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

It's a good question. The Twins booted some balls, but throwing (especially when Correa was absent) was not very good. I'd like to know the answer to this question....

After digging into it this afternoon a little, it appears that OAA for infielders does take throwing into consideration, but not for outfielders. 

[Bodie]

19 hours ago, amjgt said:

Wallner was 0 DRS last season (and -2 for his career), and right in the middle of the pack for players with more than 300 OF innings last season. Trevor Larnach was also 0 DRS

I'm not going to tell you he's a GOOD defender, but "atrocious" in inaccurate. 

Austin Martin, however, WAS atrocious. 

We can agree Wallner's only defensive strength is his arm strength.  

And teams run on his arm more than anyone else.... and do it successfully.   So...

[Aerodeliria]

8 hours ago, amjgt said:

After digging into it this afternoon a little, it appears that OAA for infielders does take throwing into consideration, but not for outfielders. 

Tq 

[Brandon]

22 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You are incredibly more optimistic than I am.  Last year:

1) The big 3 SP combined for 86 starts, with Ryan ending with 23.
2) SWR, Paddack, and Festa all had positive WAR and ERA+ of 99, 85, and 83 respectively.
3) None of these 3 hit 125 games, Only Buxton played 100.
4) All of my listed names had OPS+ over 100.

Last year's team won 82 games.  You are telling me that if everyone back repeats what they did last year, 25 more games played from Buxton 40 more games from Lewis and Correa would result in an increase of 18 wins?  I am not even addressing the nearly 5 WAR lost in Santana and Kepler that was not really replaced...

 

Don’t forget the full season Contributions of Wallner.  That will help add to the Twins wins.  Also development of young guys like ERod and Keaschal, and Lee and Julien, 

[Brandon]

I just wanted to point out that the Twins were 4th in the league in Runs Scored last season.  And they did it with their highest run producer having 71 RBI.  

This season the Twins could have 4 players reach 90 RBI.  (Correa, Buxton, Wallner, and Lewis) I suppose any of Miranda, Jeffers, Larnarch could as well.  1B and 2B are on shaky ground with lots of options to hold the ground until the rookies arrive.  So for our offense to be successful we need Lewis , Buxton, and Correa to not get injured and we need Keaschall and Emmanual Rodriguez to develop and replace the dead weight in our lineup.  We should still have a top tier offense.  I just wanted that pointed out.