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Posted

I thought there was a recent projection of who would be on the Opening Day roster of 26 players (13 pitchers) but I can't find it if there really was one done recently. I guess i'll put forward my Opening Day roster for the position player side and see what others think. IMHO, eleven spots are now spoken for with the late acquisitions of Bader and May, leaving a battle for second base/utility infield and another player.

Starters: DH--José Miranda C--Ryan Jeffers 1B--Ty France 2B--Willi Castro 3B--Royce Lewis  SS--Carlos Correa LF--Trevor Larnach CF--Byron Buxton RF--Matt Wallner Bench: Christian Vázquez (C), Harrison Bader (OF). These are locks IMHO.

What remains? Well, Willi Castro backs up everyone, but since I listed him as a second baseman, someone to play second when Castro is playing elsewhere is essential. There are three possible candidates on the 40-man roster--1) Edouard Julien, who has the most experience including real hitting success in 2023. Julien is a second baseman who might get reps at first, but with Miranda and France manning first, there won't be much of a chance for him to move there for substantial playing time. Julien had a lost 2024, at least from May 1st on and I think he needs to prove something at St. Paul. 2) Austin Martin--Martin can play outfield, but it would appear that second base is his best chance to become a regular at this point. His defense in the outfield was very much subpar. Martin profiles as a guy who can get on base, steal some bags and also play multiple positions. He came up short of his profile in all areas as a rookie. 3) Brooks Lee--A #1 draft choice Lee has the advantage of being a switch hitter. He also has versatility, playing third, short and second for the Twins last year. His bat wasn't close to expectations and he suffered injuries that seemed to rob him of foot and bat speed. 

One of these two could cease the final spot on the roster, or it could go in a totally different direction. I have thought Mickey Gasper might fit in here, particularly with his catching experience, but the signing of France seems to cut his chances to almost nothing. Actually, the same might be true for Mike Ford, a lefty hitter who can play some first base. Keirsey Jr. could be added as a fifth outfielder, but Bader would be Buxton's backup, really limiting the value that Keirsey could provide. 

The Twins are overbalanced towards left handed hitters, so I think it ends up being Lee and Julien. What are the thoughts of the TD Community.

 

Posted

I'd give Julien every chance to show he's what he was 2 years ago. 2B, DH, 1B, whichever of those they want. 

I'd give Larnarch a 1B glove, and have him in LF and 1B and DH. 

I'd give Miranda a 1B glove and a 3B glove. 

Hmmmmm, I'd also like Lee at 2B or 3B......now I'm not sure what I'd do.

I'd give Julien the first chance at 2B or DH. I'd give Larnarch LF and 1B and DH. 

I think Lee is the better fielder of any 3B option long term, but I'm not sure how that works with Lewis (who will be hurt soon anyway). 

Bader is the CF when Buxton is hurt or resting, and the LF vs LH pitchers. 

The Twins have 2 LH hitters. How the hell are they overbalanced? Seriously. 

Posted

Julien only has 1 option left so I am guessing he has the inside track to one of those spots. They will give him another chance in MLB before they exile him back to St. Paul. Lee vs Martin is a decent battle for Opening Day, but we're sure to see quite a bit of both of them this season.

Posted

Ford's a non-roster invite so he's even less of a likelihood than Gasper.  Except for Keaschall who I don't think they will rush, none of the NRI position players look like should normally have much of a chance.  Your analysis, which I mainly agree with, highlights how thin the 40-man actually is.  Most years I don't like to put much weight on Spring Training hitting numbers, as it's inherently Small Sample Size and the level of competition is inconsistent, but this might be the year where someone has the right kind of success to earn a spot, including an NRI who might push someone like Gasper off the 40-man.  Lee or Martin or Julien could do enough to make the FO decide that additional time at St Paul isn't actually necessary, and if all of them flop then it could be someone else getting the prize.

I view Ty France as less of a lock than many here do.  Falvey signed him with an escape clause for a reason.  But if indeed France is let go, it just points up even more clearly how weak the 40-man is with batters, and someone with perhaps questionable credentials will make the club.  Which in turn means... France has to be pretty bad in Spring not to make the club.  Except... to me it's a strong possibility that it's how it plays out during March.

Posted
6 hours ago, ashbury said:

Your analysis, which I mainly agree with, highlights how thin the 40-man actually is.

Agreed. I would say that you have to hope that one of Julien / Martin / Lee has a great spring to make you feel confident about them taking that spot, but (as you mentioned) a "great spring" means next to nothing. Personally would prefer Lee given what he's flashed, but think it's Julien's spot to lose.

Posted

OF: Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Bader. All set with these 4. Larnach backs up Wallner when he needs a day off. Bader plays CF and LF, is a late game PR and defensive replacement. 

INF: Lewis, Correa, Lee, Miranda/France. Lee is who the Twins want and who they need at 2B. He stabilizes the infield defense, and he's a lot better hitter than what we saw in 2024. He can help cover SS as well. IF France has a decent spring, he's on the club to open. He's the most experienced 1B available, and he's going to have to play himself off the roster. Miranda will share some 1B time, play a little 3B still, and might end up as the primary DH. 

SUPER UTILITY: Castro, and we know this. He really needs to remain in this role as much as possible. 

CATCHER: Jeffers and Vazquez.

#13: It's between Julien and Martin. Castro does everything Martin does, but better. The team is short on LH bats. Julien improved his defense in 2023 and then forgot he did so when he also forgot how to hit. But #1, he needs to hit again. Being a backup 2B and #3 1B is less important than his bat coming back.

I'm betting Julien's bat is better than Martin's and that's more important than having a backup to Castro. So Julien makes it as the 13th man in a close call.

Martin, Keirsey, and Gasper are "next men up" in no particular order. I can't shake the feeling Gasper might surprise, even on a limited basis, as a contact and solid OB guy at some/various point (s) during the season.

 

Posted
45 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

OF: Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Bader. All set with these 4. Larnach backs up Wallner when he needs a day off. Bader plays CF and LF, is a late game PR and defensive replacement. 

INF: Lewis, Correa, Lee, Miranda/France. Lee is who the Twins want and who they need at 2B. He stabilizes the infield defense, and he's a lot better hitter than what we saw in 2024. He can help cover SS as well. IF France has a decent spring, he's on the club to open. He's the most experienced 1B available, and he's going to have to play himself off the roster. Miranda will share some 1B time, play a little 3B still, and might end up as the primary DH. 

SUPER UTILITY: Castro, and we know this. He really needs to remain in this role as much as possible. 

CATCHER: Jeffers and Vazquez.

#13: It's between Julien and Martin. Castro does everything Martin does, but better. The team is short on LH bats. Julien improved his defense in 2023 and then forgot he did so when he also forgot how to hit. But #1, he needs to hit again. Being a backup 2B and #3 1B is less important than his bat coming back.

I'm betting Julien's bat is better than Martin's and that's more important than having a backup to Castro. So Julien makes it as the 13th man in a close call.

Martin, Keirsey, and Gasper are "next men up" in no particular order. I can't shake the feeling Gasper might surprise, even on a limited basis, as a contact and solid OB guy at some/various point (s) during the season.

 

I'll be surprised if Gasper doesn't get at least 240 MLB ABs

Posted

This is what I'm hoping for, I know it probably will play out a lot differently, but it's what I hope for.

CF Buxton, SS Correa, 3B Lewis, RF Wallner, 1B Miranda, LF Larnach, DH Castro, C Jeffers, 2B Lee, Bench France, Bader, Julien, Vasquez.  That would be what I'd hope to start with before the injury bug hits.  I really hope Larnach and Wallner get 500 plate appearances this year both.  I want them to see some left handed pitching.  I'm cool with Bader being a defensive replacement, and occasionally playing left when one of Wallner or Larnach needs a day off.  I just have a bad feeling that Bader is going to get 400 AB's at a .650 OPS clip again.  If he got 200 to 250 but got to use his glove quite frequently I'd be a lot more excited.  France I'm not sure, I guess it depends on how he does.  But again I'd rather have Miranda on a full time basis than what France has done the last year or two?

Posted
2 hours ago, Twodogs said:

This is what I'm hoping for, I know it probably will play out a lot differently, but it's what I hope for.

CF Buxton, SS Correa, 3B Lewis, RF Wallner, 1B Miranda, LF Larnach, DH Castro, C Jeffers, 2B Lee, Bench France, Bader, Julien, Vasquez.  That would be what I'd hope to start with before the injury bug hits.  I really hope Larnach and Wallner get 500 plate appearances this year both.  I want them to see some left handed pitching.  I'm cool with Bader being a defensive replacement, and occasionally playing left when one of Wallner or Larnach needs a day off.  I just have a bad feeling that Bader is going to get 400 AB's at a .650 OPS clip again.  If he got 200 to 250 but got to use his glove quite frequently I'd be a lot more excited.  France I'm not sure, I guess it depends on how he does.  But again I'd rather have Miranda on a full time basis than what France has done the last year or two?

I'd put the over/under of Willi Castro starting a game at DH at 1.5. With the players you are suggesting, Larnach would be the most frequent DH, followed by Lewis, Buxton and Wallner.

Posted
23 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I'd put the over/under of Willi Castro starting a game at DH at 1.5. With the players you are suggesting, Larnach would be the most frequent DH, followed by Lewis, Buxton and Wallner.

Well like I said though that this is what I hope plays out.  I mean Castro kind of plays everywhere.  He plays some SS, some 2B, some OF, some 3B, I mean he plays all over.  I didnt have an all over position listed, so he needs to be in the lineup as the team is currently constructed so I slid him into the DH position.  I know Buxton will play a lot of DH, but you and I both hope he plays more CF than Castro does.  Lewis is going to slot into the DH position quite frequently also, so as to limit injury but again I sure hope he plays more 3B than Castro does.  Castro had to be in my lineup.  But those are the guys who I'd like to see play the most innings at those positions that I listed.  

Posted

Ideally, Willi starts fewer games than he did last year and isn't a regular at any position. He literally could be a one-man bench and a true tenth regular. Obviously injuries will be a key as to where Castro plays. It would be ideal if he played mostly second, third and left field and doesn't have to play a lot of innings at short or in center. 

Posted
16 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Ideally, Willi starts fewer games than he did last year and isn't a regular at any position. He literally could be a one-man bench and a true tenth regular. Obviously injuries will be a key as to where Castro plays. It would be ideal if he played mostly second, third and left field and doesn't have to play a lot of innings at short or in center. 

Quite the outlook for someone acclaimed as the team's 2024 MVP. 

Posted
41 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Quite the outlook for someone acclaimed as the team's 2024 MVP. 

Last year versatility and availability were obviously big issues for the team, so I get it, even if a .717 OPS says he should be a bench/utility player.

Posted
6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Last year versatility and availability were obviously big issues for the team, so I get it, even if a .717 OPS says he should be a bench/utility player.

I totally agree that a .717 OPS says he should be a bench player.  But the Twins brought in Bader with a .657 OPS and Ty France and his .670 OPS that kinda puts Willi in front of those guys.  However, I've seen a lot of predicted lineups having Willi as the lead off hitter and I think that is ridiculous.  Because of that .717 OPS.  That's kind of why I'd have him as my 7th hitter.  But I don't get to make any decisions.  So it is what it is.  I hope if Bader and France play a bunch this year that they both have an OPS north of .800, but I haven't seen it over that last couple of seasons?  So we shall see.  Hopefully they can use some smoke and mirrors and win the division.  

Posted
1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

I totally agree that a .717 OPS says he should be a bench player.  But the Twins brought in Bader with a .657 OPS and Ty France and his .670 OPS that kinda puts Willi in front of those guys.  However, I've seen a lot of predicted lineups having Willi as the lead off hitter and I think that is ridiculous.  Because of that .717 OPS.  That's kind of why I'd have him as my 7th hitter.  But I don't get to make any decisions.  So it is what it is.  I hope if Bader and France play a bunch this year that they both have an OPS north of .800, but I haven't seen it over that last couple of seasons?  So we shall see.  Hopefully they can use some smoke and mirrors and win the division.  

I don't disagree. The lack of offense is why I was so disappointed in Bader and France. Castro may be at the low end of the spectrum of what I want in the batting order, but at least he's in the spectrum.

Posted

I'm sorry, but there's a lot of "picking on" Castro at this point.

I could care less about him being the MVP for 2024. That award could have been given to Correa or Jax for what they did.

Castro was like Polanco a couple years ago when Polanco answered the bell daily to be in the lineup when he was playing on 1 leg.

When Castro came to the Twins in 2023 and "snuck" on to the roster due to injuries he was a "right place at the right time" addition. He was a decent Tigers prospect who might have been advanced sooner than he should have been. And Detroit wasn't known for turning out talent at the time.

NOT patting our backs, but a few of us thought he MIGHT be a steal who would go to AAA and help. But he had a .750 OPS in 2023. And when he was selected as an All Star in 2024, his OPS was right around the same .750 OPS. And right about that time he developed some sort of back issue. Arguements could be made that he should have been shut down for a while vs being a TROOPER and still playing.

MAYBE the almost 28yo Castro was a flash in the pan. But a healthy Castro has been a .750 OPS performer for 1 1/2 years as a Twin. I think he's STILL the Twins 10th man and an important part of 2025.

Why would we concentrate on a 28yo having 1/2 of a poor season vs the 1 1/2 seasons we've seen him produce?

Posted
2 hours ago, Twodogs said:

I totally agree that a .717 OPS says he should be a bench player.  But the Twins brought in Bader with a .657 OPS and Ty France and his .670 OPS that kinda puts Willi in front of those guys.  However, I've seen a lot of predicted lineups having Willi as the lead off hitter and I think that is ridiculous.  Because of that .717 OPS.  That's kind of why I'd have him as my 7th hitter.  But I don't get to make any decisions.  So it is what it is.  I hope if Bader and France play a bunch this year that they both have an OPS north of .800, but I haven't seen it over that last couple of seasons?  So we shall see.  Hopefully they can use some smoke and mirrors and win the division.  

Willi had a more palatable .750 OPS and accrued 2.7 WAR in 2023. That kind of production would be terrific as a 10th regular. I guess I believe he can be closer to that kind of production when not overused (400-450 PAs), or at least maybe split the difference between '23 and '24. Castro also had a very nice .774 OPS at the All-Star break. While we can't count on it, I think there's a greater than zero chance that he can sustain far above average performance for an entire year, especially if he's not in the lineup six days out of six week after week.

Posted
5 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I'm sorry, but there's a lot of "picking on" Castro at this point.

I could care less about him being the MVP for 2024. That award could have been given to Correa or Jax for what they did.

Castro was like Polanco a couple years ago when Polanco answered the bell daily to be in the lineup when he was playing on 1 leg.

When Castro came to the Twins in 2023 and "snuck" on to the roster due to injuries he was a "right place at the right time" addition. He was a decent Tigers prospect who might have been advanced sooner than he should have been. And Detroit wasn't known for turning out talent at the time.

NOT patting our backs, but a few of us thought he MIGHT be a steal who would go to AAA and help. But he had a .750 OPS in 2023. And when he was selected as an All Star in 2024, his OPS was right around the same .750 OPS. And right about that time he developed some sort of back issue. Arguements could be made that he should have been shut down for a while vs being a TROOPER and still playing.

MAYBE the almost 28yo Castro was a flash in the pan. But a healthy Castro has been a .750 OPS performer for 1 1/2 years as a Twin. I think he's STILL the Twins 10th man and an important part of 2025.

Why would we concentrate on a 28yo having 1/2 of a poor season vs the 1 1/2 seasons we've seen him produce?

Thanks Doc, we were writing much of the same comment at the same time and you posted first. It may well be injury that slowed Castro or fatigue or both. 

Posted

The Twins jam packed roster and position fights remind me of a time many, many years ago. My dad was over at his best friend's shop. My dad was looking for a snowmobile clutch for a vintage sled. After seeing a few all blown apart, he spotted the model he needed on the floor in a corner. He went to go grab it and his buddy said, "oh yeah! that's a good one!" as my dad picked it up and rust and debris was falling out of it...

Posted
On 2/24/2025 at 11:43 AM, ashbury said:

Quite the outlook for someone acclaimed as the team's 2024 MVP. 

Says more about the team than the player...

Posted
On 2/18/2025 at 10:22 AM, Mike Sixel said:

I'd give Julien every chance to show he's what he was 2 years ago. 2B, DH, 1B, whichever of those they want. 

I'd give Larnarch a 1B glove, and have him in LF and 1B and DH. 

I'd give Miranda a 1B glove and a 3B glove. 

Hmmmmm, I'd also like Lee at 2B or 3B......now I'm not sure what I'd do.

I'd give Julien the first chance at 2B or DH. I'd give Larnarch LF and 1B and DH. 

I think Lee is the better fielder of any 3B option long term, but I'm not sure how that works with Lewis (who will be hurt soon anyway). 

Bader is the CF when Buxton is hurt or resting, and the LF vs LH pitchers. 

The Twins have 2 LH hitters. How the hell are they overbalanced? Seriously. 

I am with you everything with the exception of giving Larnach a first base glove.

it seems like the obvious play. A first baseman doesn’t need a good arm or good range. A first baseman can be left handed. For some reason Trevor Larnach has never played an inning of first base in the majors. He never played first base in college. He did play one game in the Cape Cod summer league in 2017. One. That is really unusual for a left handed throwing corner outfielder.

It really helps to have good hands and feet to play first base. The Twins have not been shy about playing players around the field in the minors. Larnach played AA in Pensacola in 2019. The Twins AA team used 9 players at first base. Alex Kirilloff played 35 games there. It was his first time at 1B since being drafted in 2016. They didn’t use Larnach at 1B.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I am with you everything with the exception of giving Larnach a first base glove.

it seems like the obvious play. A first baseman doesn’t need a good arm or good range. A first baseman can be left handed. For some reason Trevor Larnach has never played an inning of first base in the majors. He never played first base in college. He did play one game in the Cape Cod summer league in 2017. One. That is really unusual for a left handed throwing corner outfielder.

It really helps to have good hands and feet to play first base. The Twins have not been shy about playing players around the field in the minors. Larnach played AA in Pensacola in 2019. The Twins AA team used 9 players at first base. Alex Kirilloff played 35 games there. It was his first time at 1B since being drafted in 2016. They didn’t use Larnach at 1B.

 

Larnach throws right. 

It seems like back in the day that every corner outfielder had a first baseman's mitt in his locker, not so much anymore. The Twins (and other teams) have moved guys from catcher or the infield to first.

I've been carping all off-season about relatively short guys playing first base (Arraez, Solano, France, Santana) and there have conversations about Keaschall and Julien moving to first. I believe 6'4"LH thrower Max Kepler played a game or two at first, but other corner outfielders have not played at first at all. 

Posted
1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Larnach throws right. 

It seems like back in the day that every corner outfielder had a first baseman's mitt in his locker, not so much anymore. The Twins (and other teams) have moved guys from catcher or the infield to first.

I've been carping all off-season about relatively short guys playing first base (Arraez, Solano, France, Santana) and there have conversations about Keaschall and Julien moving to first. I believe 6'4"LH thrower Max Kepler played a game or two at first, but other corner outfielders have not played at first at all. 

That Larnach throws right makes me wonder more why he has never been on the infield. Kirilloff didn’t play first base until he got to AA but is a player that was primarily an outfielder they moved to first. Kepler played 76 games in the minors at 1B. That is what stands out to me for Larnach. He never played 1B in the minors or college.

The fit for someone like Larnach at 1B could easily be projected from the time he was drafted. I can only go by how the Twins have used him to conclude he doesn’t have the tools to play that spot. What are the other options?

  • Larnach is unwilling to play 1B. I rejected that possibility.
  • He plays another more important position so well that they would never move him off that spot. his use at DH negates that possibility.
  • The Twins staff is so inept that it didn’t occur to them that Larnach might be needed 1B. Maybe that is the case but I trust in the staff and reject that possibility. They have played so many players at 1B in the minors.

I hope it is the last case and an oversight on the Twins part. I hope that it isn’t his lack of tools to play the position. It would help the Twins to have that flexibility with his bat.

Posted

I recall when AK was drafted he was regarded as a first baseman, even though he played more OF in high school (and through the minors). An enduring memory of mine of 2020 spring training was Kirilloff do drills at first base. He looked great to me. I recall Morneau making similar comments and yet he never developed as a solid defender. 

I don't know if large and long guys like Larnach and Wallner don't at least work some at first base. I regard both as close to average in the field, but it seems the Twins under Baldelli have regarded positional flexibility highly and yet both Larnach and Wallner have been exclusively corner outfielders. 

Posted

The Twins have had shortages of quality production from their outfielders in recent years so there was no need to move Larnach to 1B. The Twins pushed Kirilloff to 1B because he didn't have a good arm or good defensive instincts while Larnach has great defensive instincts. Unfortunately, Larnach lacks the speed to be a plus defender, and he can merely hold his own in left.

Who would fans rather play 1B and LF between Larnach, Miranda, France or Julien? Even with his limits, I'd choose Larnach every day in LF, and that's probably why the Twins haven't put him at 1B much. There are plenty of legitimate options at 1B already.

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