The Minnesota Twins: The Biggest Losers of the 2020 MLB Draft?

[Cody Christie]

Every MLB Draft comes with teams who make surprising picks while trying to find extra value. The 2020 MLB Draft will be talked about forever, and the Twins might have been the draft's biggest loser.

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

 

The 2020 MLB Draft posed unprecedented challenges for front offices across baseball. The COVID-19 pandemic shut down high school and college seasons, forcing teams to lean heavily on previous scouting reports, data analysis, and virtual interviews. While some organizations struck gold in this shortened five-round draft, the Minnesota Twins are now widely regarded as one of the biggest losers, as Baseball America’s five-year review casts a harsh light on their decisions.

Contextual Challenges
Revisiting the draft’s circumstances is essential to understand Minnesota's struggles fully. The pandemic forced scouts off the road, canceled in-person workouts, and left teams relying on incomplete information. For the Twins, this meant entering the draft with limited insight while trying to bolster a system that was trying to improve from what the previous regime had left behind.

Additionally, the Twins forfeited their third-round pick to sign free agent Josh Donaldson, and they dealt their compensation-round pick to the Dodgers in the Kenta Maeda trade. These moves left the team with only three selections, putting extra pressure on their top picks to succeed.

A Swing and a Miss: Aaron Sabato
With the 27th overall pick, the Twins selected first baseman Aaron Sabato, a slugger from the University of North Carolina. At the time, Sabato’s raw power and plate discipline drew comparisons to MLB standouts like Pete Alonso. However, Sabato’s professional career has been riddled with inconsistency five years later.

At the time, the Twins liked him for his offensive profile and signed him to an above-slot deal.

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“We like his swing, we like his mental approach to the game, to hitting,” scouting director Sean Johnson said following the draft. “He's a very confident hitter. He has a great plan at the plate already. He's got a really workable swing. It's a really tight swing with good movements with good direction. He's got power to all fields and so we just like that as an option in the back of the first round. We thought he was the best offensive player left on the board.”

Injuries and strikeout issues have plagued Sabato, and while he’s shown flashes of power in the minors, his inability to adjust to high-level pitching has kept him from reaching the big leagues. As of the 2024 season, he remains in Double-A with little indication of breaking through. Last season, he hit .199/.308/.336 (.645) while being older than the average age of players in the Texas League. Meanwhile, other picks taken shortly after him have already accumulated positive WAR. Austin Wells (28th overall) has 2.6 WAR in 134 games, while Jordan Westburg (30th overall) has 3.7 WAR in 175 games. Sabato would always need to hit at a high level to impact the big-league roster, but that has yet to happen. 

Alerick Soularie: A Risk That Didn’t Pay Off
The Twins’ second-round pick, Alerick Soularie, was a versatile outfielder from the University of Tennessee known for his athleticism and offensive upside. Unfortunately, Soularie struggled to find his footing in pro ball. He’s battled injuries and inconsistent performance, and his defensive versatility hasn’t been enough to offset his lack of production at the plate.

Here’s what the Twins said at the time.

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“Really displayed a lot of bat-to-ball skills, ability to control the strike zone, even going all the way back to San Jac, more walks than strikeouts -- [that’s] a big thing for us that we're into,” Johnson said after taking Soularie. “He's still able to get the power. … He had a monster year last year in the SEC, which is always a nice thing to look at from a prospect perspective.”

Minnesota released Soularie in May 2024 after he posted a .598 OPS in 33 games. He signed with the Giants organization and played 24 games before heading to an independent league to end last season. The Twins gambled on his potential in a year when scouting was limited, but that risk did not pay off.

Marco Raya: A Rare Bright Spot
The lone bright spot in Minnesota’s 2020 draft class is fourth-round pick Marco Raya, a high school pitcher from Texas. Raya has displayed a promising mix of velocity and secondary pitches, rising through the system as a potential middle-of-the-rotation arm. He remains one of the team’s top pitching prospects and could still salvage some value from this otherwise underwhelming draft haul.

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“We had really good evaluations, we all liked him, we all thought he could evolve into a starter,” Johnson said. “He's a really solid athlete. He's got really good delivery, really good arm action. And he's got four pitches now, and we think ... he's not the biggest kid out there, but he is athletic and he's got a chance to fill out.”

Last season, he finished the year at Triple-A at only 21 years old. In 25 starts, he posted a 4.05 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. Raya faced older batters in over 90% of his plate appearances because the Twins have been confident in moving him up the organizational ladder. Minnesota has limited his workload in recent seasons, so the 2025 campaign is crucial for him to prove he can throw over 100 innings in a season. 

Kala’i Rosario: Another Chance for Late-Round Value
Besides Raya, the Twins have also given Rosario every opportunity to succeed in the organization. Minnesota selected him out of high school in Hawaii, and he has consistently moved up the ladder, including being sent to the Arizona Fall League the last two seasons. The Twins left him unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft this winter, but no teams selected him. Now, he must prove his worth to the organization and put himself back on the prospect map. 

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“Another guy we got to connect with. Really love the kid, his background, his desire to work, his curiosity to improve,” Johnson said. “We think there's some things we can optimize in his swing yet. But his power doesn't grow on trees, and we were really excited about him being in the fifth round.”

Last season, Rosario reached Double-A and hit .235/.321/.405 (.726) with 30 extra-base hits in 69 games. He missed a good chunk of time due to an elbow injury. He’s combined for over 30 K% in his professional career, so there has been plenty of swing-and-miss with his power totals. He was the Midwest League MVP in 2023, pointing to his long-term potential upside.

The Cost of Missed Opportunities
To be fair, the Twins weren’t the only team hamstrung by the challenges of the 2020 draft. However, the combination of limited scouting, forfeited picks, and questionable selections has left Minnesota with one of the weakest draft classes from that year. The Sabato pick, in particular, looms large as a missed opportunity, especially considering the elite talent still available in other rounds.

Draft misses are inevitable in baseball, but the 2020 MLB Draft will likely serve as a cautionary tale for the Twins. With the team now facing increased pressure to develop homegrown talent, the lack of impact players from this class is a glaring hole in their long-term plans. As Baseball America’s review suggests, the 2020 draft may be remembered as pivotal in the Twins’ struggles to build a sustainable contender.

For Minnesota, the hope is that players like Raya and Rosario can eventually make an impact, but five years later, it’s clear the team’s early-round picks were a missed opportunity in an already challenging year.

Were the Twins the biggest losers of the 2020 MLB Draft? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[Jocko87]

Widely regarded is a stretch term.  If 2 of 4 picks still have upside potential that's higher than average prospect hit rate.  Sabato was always a stretch but may have resulted in clarity in drafting positional flexibility early.

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Widely regarded is a stretch term.  If 2 of 4 picks still have upside potential that's higher than average prospect hit rate.  Sabato was always a stretch but may have resulted in clarity in drafting positional flexibility early.

The point is other teams had picks which are already producing MLB value. The fact the Twins might get something from their draft picks to help them out of the doldrums is good, but the fact they now need those picks to work out to avoid looking bad is not.

[tony&rodney]

Austin Martin was pick number five. MLB drafts can be tough. 

[bean5302]

I think 2020's flop has highlighted 2019's poor results as well. Thank goodness for Matt Wallner, otherwise the Twins aren't going to see any value from their 2019 selections, either. 2019 was okay as was 2018.

An average team needs 3+ hits per draft, and no Falvey drafted player has ever earned an All Star selection for the Twins.

[tony&rodney]

22 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

no Falvey drafted player has ever earned an All Star selection for the Twins.

Hmmm. Do the flood gates open in the next few years?

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think 2020's flop has highlighted 2019's poor results as well. Thank goodness for Matt Wallner, otherwise the Twins aren't going to see any value from their 2019 selections, either. 2019 was okay as was 2018.

An average team needs 3+ hits per draft, and no Falvey drafted player has ever earned an All Star selection for the Twins.

I'd argue their 2019 draft was actually really strong. 

Wallner, Spencer Steer, Sawyer Gibson-Long, Casey Legumina, Brent Headrick, Louie Varland and Edouard Julien all have made the majors so far. Some have been traded for other deals, but drafting them and having them make the majors IS an accomplishment.

Also, taking a shot at NOW top 100 prospect Drew Gilbert was smart too, even though he wasn't going to sign.

[shimrod]

"...no Falvey drafted player has ever earned an All Star selection..."

I think this says more about the Twins player development than their drafting. 

Has any Falvey drafted player reaching the majors been viewed as an average or better defender? I can't think of one. 

Twins earned a reputation as strong defenders under Tom Kelly, then coasted on that reputation through the Gardenhire years as the team defense gradually declined. We can't even develop an average defender at first, much less second or short. 

I sympathize with the commenters who want our manager to hold the players accountable for their defense. Defensive fundamentals need to be learned and internalized in the minors. If defensive accountability is not demanded in the minors it won't be available in the majors. 

 

[Parfigliano]

Hopefully Raya works his way up to MLB debut this year.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Were the Twins the biggest losers of the 2020 MLB Draft?

Impossible to tell without knowing what the 29 other teams did.

[DocBauer]

It's pretty rare to draft a 1B in the 1st round of the draft unless said 1B is pretty special. Well, if you look at what Sabato did in his first two seasons at North Carolina, optimism was warranted for a bat first, 27th selection. He hit, he got on base, and he flashed great power potential.

Unfortunately, his sophomore season was cut short, and the reality is there wasn't enough information, apparently, to tell the Twins there was a hole in his potential. I didn't like the pick when it was made, but at least there was logic in the potential he offered.

IIRC I wasn't crazy about Soularie as he seemed more athlete than ballplayer.  But in a short draft and a lack of information to work with, I guess drafting athletic potential wasn't a horrible choice. But it sure didn't turn out well.

Raya was easily my favorite selection. He wasn't the biggest guy in the world, but he had some good stuff for his age and seemed to have a competitive fire in him.

Rosario has been promoted pretty aggressively, and being his league MVP following the 2023 shows his potential. He's probably more DH than OF, but he's reportedly got a strong arm. Hopefully he can polish his OF skills enough to play there.  But a powerful DH isn't a bad thing either. 

Not a good draft for the Twins. Raya remains the one bright hope. But with only 4 picks in 5 rounds and limited scouting and performance to draw from, getting even a single difference maker could mark the draft as relatively successful. 

 

[Fatbat]

Sabato and before that Cavaco. The 1st round picks ran thru a horrible few picks for years. Is it really that hard to pick a decent player early in a draft? Rosario and Raya could still be MLB regulars but I do agree that the 2020 draft was sub par. 

[Trov]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 no Falvey drafted player has ever earned an All Star selection for the Twins.

This may be true, but in reality only about 3 to 4 draft classes should have players making the MLB beyond rookie year.  College guys generally take 3 years to make debut, unless high pick stud.  Most guys take at least 2 years to get to be an All Star, again unless high pick stud.  So really only the drafts of 2017 through 2020 should be looked at for this, and that is only if college guys were taken.  The high school kids, like Lewis take 4 to 6 years out of high school to make debut normally.

Lewis, assuming can stay healthy, will likely make an all star team one day, hopefully this year.  Baily Ober very well could make an All Star team this year too if he avoids early blow up games. Jeffers was close to All Star last year when he started season but is too streaky. There will be some guys in coming years. 

All that being said, All Star selections is a terrible way to measure how good a player was. With fact 1 has to come from each team, and fan votes decide starters historically, things got was skewed. Remember the year that Royals had ton of starters? For Twins, Hrbek made 1 all-star team in 82. In 84 he was number 2 in MVP voting did not make all star team. Ron Coomer made an All Star game for Twins. 

Also, Luis Arraez was not drafted by Falvy, but he was international signing and he was All Star for Twins. That should count for something too. 

[jmlease1]

2020 was a tough year.

And with so few picks, the twins aren't going to get back any value for missing on high draft choices with good development of late-round picks, which they've done in other drafts (like 2019). I'm still not sure what I think of Raya, who has talent, but has had a different kind of progression through the system, where they've handled his innings very carefully. I'm fond of Rosario, who I know is something of a longer shot to make it in MLB (he's not a good defender, he Ks a lot, he's not consistent, and now he's coming off a significant injury after just being ok in AA) but development is not linear so I'm holding out hope.

I think a lot of us questioned the Sabato pick at the time. Coming on the heels of Cavaco, it was more than fair to wonder if they knew how to handle 1st round picks! It's definitely gone better since then: Petty yielded Sonny Gray, Brooks Lee has already made it to MLB, and Walker Jenkins looks awesome.

the 2021 draft is the one where there's going to be the lowest yield from high draft picks (Twins have traded their top 5 selections: Petty, Miller, Hajjar, Povich, and CES) but still might get ok value out of the draft class as a whole with MacLeod, Adams, Festa, Ohl, and Nowlin still progressing as starters with Festa looking like a real find.

MLB draft is tough.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

Also, Luis Arraez was not drafted by Falvy,

Not signed by Falvey either.  That was Terry Ryan's doing.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

This may be true, but in reality only about 3 to 4 draft classes should have players making the MLB beyond rookie year.  College guys generally take 3 years to make debut, unless high pick stud.  Most guys take at least 2 years to get to be an All Star, again unless high pick stud.  So really only the drafts of 2017 through 2020 should be looked at for this, and that is only if college guys were taken.  The high school kids, like Lewis take 4 to 6 years out of high school to make debut normally.

Lewis, assuming can stay healthy, will likely make an all star team one day, hopefully this year.  Baily Ober very well could make an All Star team this year too if he avoids early blow up games. Jeffers was close to All Star last year when he started season but is too streaky. There will be some guys in coming years. 

All that being said, All Star selections is a terrible way to measure how good a player was. With fact 1 has to come from each team, and fan votes decide starters historically, things got was skewed. Remember the year that Royals had ton of starters? For Twins, Hrbek made 1 all-star team in 82. In 84 he was number 2 in MVP voting did not make all star team. Ron Coomer made an All Star game for Twins. 

Also, Luis Arraez was not drafted by Falvy, but he was international signing and he was All Star for Twins. That should count for something too. 

Falvey's overseen eight MLB drafts. Not one of his drafted players has produced a 3.0+ fWAR season for the Twins in their careers. Not one has ever been an All Star, and while you don't like it, I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect Falvey to have at least produced a single bonafide star player by now.

College players, on average make the MLB in 2-3 years.
High school players, on average, make MLB in 3-4 years.

That's "on average" not on exception, and last year, here are the players who made the All Star Game within Falvey's draft range in the American League alone...
Adley Rutschman
Gunnar Henderson
Steven Kwan
Bobby Witt, Jr.
Jordan Westburg
Riley Greene
Jarren Duran
David Fry
Garrett Crochet
Tarik Skubal
Mason Miller
Logan Gilbert
That's 12 players for 15 teams who were "drafted" during Falvey's tenure who were in the All Star game.

Luis Arraez was signed by Terry Ryan in 2013, dude. So yeah, it's a feather in Terry Ryan's cap. The same feather that Bill Smith gets for the load of players he signed which represented the Twins in an All Star game.

Feel free to keep offering unlimited excuses.

[Brandon]

Clickbait article as Rosario and Raya are pretty good prospects.  Raya is probably not far from being a top 100 either.  
 

The Twins first pick was 27th. That’s not as much of a sure thing as a top 5.  Every one knows this. The Twins have done fine with their high school picks.  
 

All Star and Falvey draft pick Brent Rooker says 🙋‍♂️ hi. 

[Trov]

On 1/8/2025 at 11:30 AM, ashbury said:

Not signed by Falvey either.  That was Terry Ryan's doing.

ahh yes you are correct, he signed in 2013.