2025 MLB Draft Lottery Preview: Minnesota Twins

[Jamie Cameron]

The 2025 MLB Draft Lottery is coming up next week, on Dec. 10. Let’s dig into how the lottery works, the wrinkles for 2025, and the Twins' chances of moving up.

Image courtesy of © Kyle Schwab - Imagn Images

When is the Lottery?
Tues., Dec. 10, at 5:30 PM ET. The 2025 MLB Draft Lottery will be broadcast live on MLB Network from the Winter Meetings, and can be streamed live on MLB.com.

What is the Purpose of the Lottery?
Introduced as part of the 2022 CBA ahead of the 2023 draft cycle, the first six picks of a given draft cycle are now determined by lottery to discourage tanking and give a passive reward to teams who made a valiant effort but missed the postseason. (We, of course, wouldn't know any of those.) 

Do Teams Actually Move Up?
Famously, yes. The Twins jumped from 13th to fifth in the inaugural draft lottery for the 2023 cycle, which allowed them to draft Walker Jenkins near the top of an exceptional class. In 2024, the Guardians jumped all the way to first overall, despite having just 2.0% odds of doing so. Their jump allowed them to select Travis Bazzana, in addition to stocking up on tons of prep talent with their bloated bonus pool.

How does it work?
Any team that didn’t make the postseason is eligible for the lottery, with odds decreasing for teams with superior win/loss records. The lottery is actually held before the broadcast, which serves as a results show for a process completed by an independent auditor earlier the same day. Picks 1-6 are awarded in that order by a draw that spits out ping-pong balls, with a four-number combination that corresponds to a given team. The worse your 2024 record, the more number combinations you have in the draw. Picks 7-18 are in accordance with pre-lottery odds for non-playoff teams. Finally, playoff teams' order are determined by their elimination from postseason play (not their regular season records). Picks awarded by the lottery are only adjusted for round one. The order for the rest of the rounds is in accordance with their regular season record.

What are the Wrinkles?
The largest is the fact that there are teams who can’t pick inside the top ten, as they are ineligible. Any payor club (read; large market) is ineligible to receive a lottery pick in two consecutive draft cycles. As such, the Chicago White Sox will pick 10th in 2025, despite a 41-121 record. Additionally, revenue sharing-receiving teams are ineligible to receive a lottery pick in three consecutive cycles. As such, the Oakland West Sacramento Athletics will pick 11th in 2025.

The Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers will likely receive a ten-pick penalty for being in the luxury tax, but since each made the playoffs, that won't affect the Twins.

What are the Twins' chances of Moving Up?
I’m not going to lie to you: it’s extremely unlikely. You can find teams' current odds of landing the top pick listed below:

• 22.45 -- Rockies (.377)
• 22.45 -- Marlins (.383)
• 17.96 -- Angels (.389)
• 10.20 -- Nationals (.438)
• 7.48 -- Blue Jays (.457)
• 5.31 -- Pirates (.469)
• 3.67 -- Reds (.475)
• 2.45 -- Rangers (.481)
• 1.90 -- Giants (.494)
• 1.50 -- Rays (.494)
• 1.22 -- Red Sox (.500)
• 1.09 -- Twins (.506)
• 0.82 -- Cardinals (.512)
• 0.68 -- Cubs (.512)
• 0.53 -- Mariners (.525)
• 0.27 -- D-backs (.549)
• 0.0 -- White Sox (.253 – ineligible for lottery pick)
• 0.0 -- A’s (.426 – ineligible for lottery pick)

Moving up has an outsized impact for payor clubs. Teams like the Cubs and Red Sox do not benefit from compensation picks in Competitive-Balance Rounds A or B, which act to bolster the farm systems of small-market teams. This limits their reach in the draft in terms of both picks and bonus pool.

However the lottery shakes out, it’s worth paying attention to. At the least, a team that moves from the middle of the first round to a lottery spot has a good chance to add a top-50 global prospect to their system. If the Twins move up, we’ll have all the details here at Twins Daily.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I’m one of those folks who sent a calendar reminder to a few family members to remember to watch. Sicko is the medical term. Can’t wait to see what happens! Thanks for the article :)

[IndianaTwin]

@Jamie Cameron, can you clarify what the numbers are for each team? They can’t be percents, since they only add up to 77.53. 

[Parfigliano]

13 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’m one of those folks who sent a calendar reminder to a few family members to remember to watch. Sicko is the medical term. Can’t wait to see what happens! Thanks for the article :)

Hard core.

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’m one of those folks who sent a calendar reminder to a few family members to remember to watch. Sicko is the medical term. Can’t wait to see what happens! Thanks for the article :)

I'm in too. This might be a roll the Twins can pull off. Hoping for top three.

[Jamie Cameron]

20 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

@Jamie Cameron, can you clarify what the numbers are for each team? They can’t be percents, since they only add up to 77.53. 

This is why TD folks are the best. They are percentage chances of number one pick. Rockies got accidentally cut off. Editing shortly @IndianaTwin

[Cory Engelhardt]

24 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm in too. This might be a roll the Twins can pull off. Hoping for top three.

I’ll take top 6 for sure. Or at least not dropping down to 15, which I believe is the worst that could happen. 

[mikelink45]

I am one of those fans who could care less.  I was fine with the worst team picking first.  I would like to see a list of all the players on the Twins roster and where they were picked.  I know Lewis is a number one.   Ober was in the 23rd round with the Dodgers and the 12th with the Twins.  Joe Ryan was in the 39th round and then the 7th,  Jax was 12th and then 3rd round.    Jeffers was round 2.  

Miranda 2nd round, Julien was 37th and then 12th. 

Correa, Buxton, Lee and Lewis were first rounders as was Matt Wallner, but the first time he was drafted it was 32nd round.  Larnach was 40th and then 1st.  

Draft well and the team does well.  But it will never be an exact science.  Padres took Matt Bush number 1, Justin Verlander went 2.  The Twins took Bryan Oelkers number 4 in 1982 and the next player taken was Dwight Gooden.   In 1989 we lucked out when the Mets took Alan Zinter at 24 and we got Knoblauch at 25.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

"Draft beer, not us." was a saying in the 1960's. That was a different kind of draft. 

[tony&rodney]

49 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

The Twins took Bryan Oelkers number 4 in 1982 and the next player taken was Dwight Gooden. 

Gooden was a star at 19, but he wasn't Hillsborough County player of the year in 1982. Man, where have you gone Bryan Oelkers?

[Patzky]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm in too. This might be a roll the Twins can pull off. Hoping for top three.

In the Jenkins draft, it was projected that five draft picks were head and shoulders above the others, so getting the fifth pick was tantamount to getting one two three or four. 

 

What's the prognosis for this draft?

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I am one of those fans who could care less.  I was fine with the worst team picking first.  I would like to see a list of all the players on the Twins roster and where they were picked.  I know Lewis is a number one.   Ober was in the 23rd round with the Dodgers and the 12th with the Twins.  Joe Ryan was in the 39th round and then the 7th,  Jax was 12th and then 3rd round.    Jeffers was round 2.  

Miranda 2nd round, Julien was 37th and then 12th. 

Correa, Buxton, Lee and Lewis were first rounders as was Matt Wallner, but the first time he was drafted it was 32nd round.  Larnach was 40th and then 1st.  

Draft well and the team does well.  But it will never be an exact science.  Padres took Matt Bush number 1, Justin Verlander went 2.  The Twins took Bryan Oelkers number 4 in 1982 and the next player taken was Dwight Gooden.   In 1989 we lucked out when the Mets took Alan Zinter at 24 and we got Knoblauch at 25.  

I get they can get good players in many rounds. But moving up to me isn't just about a better player in the 1st round. It's the ability to spread a little money around and possibly entice a player or two to forego college because of the extra pool money if you move up. That's a good thing too.

[2wins87]

Here are the odds that the Twins will get each slot:

1st - 1.09%

2nd - 1.29%

3rd - 1.54%

4th - 1.98%

5th - 2.52%

6th - 3.33%

7-13th - 0%

14th - 66.2%

15th - 20.7%

16th - 1.39%

17th - 0.02%

18th - essentially 0%

Total odds of moving up (1-6): 11.7%

Total odds of moving down (15-18): 22.1%

[nicksaviking]

13 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Padres took Matt Bush number 1, Justin Verlander went 2.  

This part has been fixed with the draft allotments and slotting of the pay. The Padres notoriously didn't/wouldn't pick Verlander (or Jared Weaver or Stephen Drew) because they were Scott Boras clients and the Padres wouldn't pay both the bonus and guaranteed contract demands for those players.

Still not an exact science, but the draft is much more equitable.

[nicksaviking]

7 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Here are the odds that the Twins will get each slot:

1st - 1.09%

 

So basically the same odds that they'd miss the playoffs? They can do this!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

40 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Here are the odds that the Twins will get each slot:

1st - 1.09%

2nd - 1.29%

3rd - 1.54%

4th - 1.98%

5th - 2.52%

6th - 3.33%

7-13th - 0%

14th - 66.2%

15th - 20.7%

16th - 1.39%

17th - 0.02%

18th - essentially 0%

Total odds of moving up (1-6): 11.7%

Total odds of moving down (15-18): 22.1%

[Cory Engelhardt]

55 minutes ago, Patzky said:

In the Jenkins draft, it was projected that five draft picks were head and shoulders above the others, so getting the fifth pick was tantamount to getting one two three or four. 

 

What's the prognosis for this draft?

I'd love to hear the breakdown for this too. From the little I know, the top of the draft, in terms of prep guys, is stronger than the 2024 draft was. That's about the most I know though, so others certainly will know a lot more. @Jamie Cameron?

[Jamie Cameron]

16 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd love to hear the breakdown for this too. From the little I know, the top of the draft, in terms of prep guys, is stronger than the 2024 draft was. That's about the most I know though, so others certainly will know a lot more. @Jamie Cameron?

This is a hard question to answer currently. Prep is better than 2024, College is probably a little worse. Overall, I think this draft is maybe closer to 2024 than 2023, which was unusually good.

That said, my read (early, too early etc.) is this draft is getting dinged a little for less depth. I like the group at the top quite a bit (something for everyone) and I felt last years top of the class should have been dinged more for a lack of premium defensive positions (too many 1B types, not many good SS)

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, its a demonstrable fact that picking earlier increases your odds of getting better players. It's not even debatable. It's no guarantee, but I think people really struggle with odds....

[old nurse]

21 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I am one of those fans who could care less.  I was fine with the worst team picking first.  I would like to see a list of all the players on the Twins roster and where they were picked.  I know Lewis is a number one.   Ober was in the 23rd round with the Dodgers and the 12th with the Twins.  Joe Ryan was in the 39th round and then the 7th,  Jax was 12th and then 3rd round.    Jeffers was round 2.  

Miranda 2nd round, Julien was 37th and then 12th. 

Correa, Buxton, Lee and Lewis were first rounders as was Matt Wallner, but the first time he was drafted it was 32nd round.  Larnach was 40th and then 1st.  

Draft well and the team does well.  But it will never be an exact science.  Padres took Matt Bush number 1, Justin Verlander went 2.  The Twins took Bryan Oelkers number 4 in 1982 and the next player taken was Dwight Gooden.   In 1989 we lucked out when the Mets took Alan Zinter at 24 and we got Knoblauch at 25.  

All you have to do is go to baseball reference and look up Twins drafts or go to the twins roster page and click on the player and that information is there 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, its a demonstrable fact that picking earlier increases your odds of getting better players. It's not even debatable. It's no guarantee, but I think people really struggle with odds....

People struggle with anything odd 

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, old nurse said:

People struggle with anything odd 

Ah, perhaps why I don't get Falvey & Sons.

[Fatbat]

Well there is always another Cavaco to draft. Hopefully not by us tho. 

[tony&rodney]

On 12/4/2024 at 8:46 PM, Fatbat said:

Well there is always another Cavaco to draft. Hopefully not by us tho. 

That was a strange pick and pretty much everyone was perplexed.

[tony&rodney]

Bad start to the Winter Meetings, the Twins pick #16. Ahhhchhhkkkkk. Bad juju. Carl's to blame.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Summary of results:
 

1. Nationals (10% chance at #1, 4th going in)

2. Angels (18% chance, 3rd going in)

3. Mariners (0.5% chance, leapfrogged Twins, 15th going in)

4.  Rockies (22.5% chance, tied for 1st going in)

5. Cardinals (0.8% chance, leapfrogged Twins, 13th going in)

6. Pirates (5% chance, 6th going in)

7. Marlins (22.5% chance, tied for first going in)

….

16. Twins (1% chance of 1st pick, 12th going in)