Olney: Twins are most surprising team

[Parker Hageman]

After the Twins completed the dismantling of the Chicago White Sox on Thursday afternoon, ESPN.com's Buster Olney tweeted out that his "most surprising team" is the Minnesota Twins.

 

 

 

The Twins, now 33-36, were originally projected to finish with 64.5 wins totals by Las Vegas in February. Now the Twins are on pace to obtained 77 wins.

 

It may come as a surprise to Olney that the Twins are a middle-of-the-road team instead of one that completely falls flat on their face but they are beating up on sub-.500 teams well (19-14) while teams with above-.500 winning percentages still have knocked them around (14-22).

 

Is this team surprising you?

[Twins Twerp]

Yes. Who cares if they are beating up on bad teams....the twins (we) were supposed to be one of those bad teams. Correia is a decent number 2 or 3 starter. He has been better than advertised

[ThePuck]

I'm very happy with our win total so far. I'm happy we've had some entertaining baseball. I'm not sure I expect the wins to continue. I still think we end up under 70 wins, but would love to be wrong.

[Tibs]

This team isn't surprising me. I expected them to finish slightly under .500 at the beginning of the year and they are 3 games under right now even with the 10 game losing streak. I don't remember why I thought that now, maybe I just thought they couldn't be that bad three years in a row. Still a lot of baseball left to play

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I just don't get it. The Twins had nearly all their offseason acquisitions fail, have seen regression from many of their biggest contributors last season (Willingham, Diamond, Burton, Doumit, Mastroianni, Carroll), lost Denard Span and Ben Revere, and suffered through Aaron Hicks troubling debut. Yet, somehow they are better!!! Seriously, the only positive things we really added on from last year's team are Kevin Correia, Ryan Pressley, and Josh Roenicke. Remarkable and shocking. Am I surprised at the results so far? I'm not completely sold since it's June. I'm just in awe given the circumstances that have happened.

[ThePuck]

And although the Twins are very surprising, I'm not sure they're more surprising than the Rockies or the Pirates. I think an argument could be made for all three if we're talking about a team be surprisingly better than expected.

 

Washington and the Angels have been surprising in the other direction.

[Danchat]

I think we're just lucky. I'm waiting for catastrophe to happen.

Ah, the life of a pessimist.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Yes, this is about what I expected, perhaps a touch better.

 

I never thought that Vegas W/L was realistic.

[josecordoba]

I'm very happy with our win total so far. I'm happy we've had some entertaining baseball. I'm not sure I expect the wins to continue. I still think we end up under 70 wins, but would love to be wrong.

 

I think you're on the right track. I assumed the Twins to be about a 68 Win Team that's played enough over their head that 70-73 wins looks a bit more likely. This is about where Fangraphs projected standings place them. One thing that should be noted though is players like Arcia, Hicks, and Gibson do have the potential to make things a bit more intersting then they now appear to be. It's very possible the Twins True Talent Level towards the end of the season is around 75. Which would be a huge improvement from what it looked like months ago.

[cmathewson]

I just don't get it. The Twins had nearly all their offseason acquisitions fail, have seen regression from many of their biggest contributors last season (Willingham, Diamond, Burton, Doumit, Mastroianni, Carroll), lost Denard Span and Ben Revere, and suffered through Aaron Hicks troubling debut. Yet, somehow they are better!!! Seriously, the only positive things we really added on from last year's team are Kevin Correia, Ryan Pressley, and Josh Roenicke. Remarkable and shocking. Am I surprised at the results so far? I'm not completely sold since it's June. I'm just in awe given the circumstances that have happened.

 

That's because the entire rotation last year got hurt before June and they had to use a bunch of AAAA pitchers to patch it. This year, they at least have some stability in the rotation.

[shs_59]

When you can pencil in

 

Correa as you're #2 starter, Diamond as you're #3, The Big Pelf #4 and Denundo/ Walters as you're #5. thats a solid back end of you're staff.

 

Just need that "ace" or top of the rotation anchor.

 

Can Kyle Gibson be the answer? It isn't Hendriks this yr, nor Worley or Meyer, May.

[Brandon]

I expected the Twins to be around a .500 team 78 - 82 wins. I am a little surprised by some of the players performances. I expected more out of Carroll and the offense and Worely. I am surprised by Walters, Dedunno, and Corriea and Pressley and Roenicke. I am eating Crow so far on him. The reason the Twins are where they are though is not a surprise the bullpen has been lights out.

[Willihammer]

To Jr's credit, Correia has been just what the doctor ordered. If only he'd not stopped there we might be looking at a more functional back half of the rotation and (gasp) a contender!

[Halsey Hall]

I'm not surprised at all. Just to bad we had that 10 gamer. A couple of wins there and we'd be over .500

[jm3319]

I think we're just lucky. I'm waiting for catastrophe to happen.

Ah, the life of a pessimist.

 

Me and you both. Sadly, waiting for everything to come crashing back down to reality and see the wheels fall off. Hopefully it'll never happen and I'll be wrong. As someone said above, pieces appear to have regressed but somehow is still better than last year

[Pius Jefferson]

They've got a tough 14 game stretch including 10 games on the road to finish the 1st half of the season. If they can manage to stay 4 or 5 games under a .500 record might be possible.

[jokin]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4497[/ATTACH]

 

 

 

 

It may come as a surprise to Olney that the Twins are a middle-of-the-road team instead of one that completely falls flat on their face but they are beating up on sub-.500 teams well (19-14) while teams with above-.500 winning percentages still have knocked them around (14-22).

 

Is this team surprising you?

 

Not a bit. Your highlighted paragraphs above says it all. They are who we thought they were.

 

The win total is going to end up artificially inflated due to the dumbing-down of the schedule, but I still doubt that the Twins will hit 77 wins (I predicted 66-75 in the preseason poll, I'm sticking to it). I find it extremely odd that not understanding the strength of schedule issue and the fan ecstasy when the Twins sweep the likes of the Brewers and White Sox even skews the opinions of guys like Olney, who should clearly know better.

 

It's just disappointing that they didn't make a stronger effort in the off-season to better fill the holes with the oodles of available dollars.

[twinstalker]

There is no evidence that this is anything but a bad team. Gardenhire's probably totaled two losses by himself, though, so they could actually have a winning record at this point. Still, a bad team is one that on average would reasonably be 29-40, and for a team that is exactly that good (on average), 33 wins instead is probably just a product of noise or schedule. Chicago was a bad team last year, but hell, they actually were leading the division at this point, I think. That didn't change the fact they were a bad team.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I just don't get it. The Twins had nearly all their offseason acquisitions fail, have seen regression from many of their biggest contributors last season (Willingham, Diamond, Burton, Doumit, Mastroianni, Carroll), lost Denard Span and Ben Revere, and suffered through Aaron Hicks troubling debut. Yet, somehow they are better!!! Seriously, the only positive things we really added on from last year's team are Kevin Correia, Ryan Pressley, and Josh Roenicke. Remarkable and shocking. Am I surprised at the results so far? I'm not completely sold since it's June. I'm just in awe given the circumstances that have happened.

 

Don't forget the defense has been much more solid, especially the middle infield. That is worth a fair amount of wins right there over a season (or half a season).

 

But what it really comes down, as others have pointed out, is that we have a very solid 3-5 in our rotation. In fact, the Twins might have one of the better 3-5 punches around. Add in Gibson and perhaps 1 other and the rotation is average at worst. Bullpen has been excellent.

[Benchwarmerjim]

I dont think the Twins are THE most surprising team, but they are A surprising team, if that makes sense.

[ThePuck]

Don't forget the defense has been much more solid, especially the middle infield. That is worth a fair amount of wins right there over a season (or half a season).

 

But what it really comes down, as others have pointed out, is that we have a very solid 3-5 in our rotation. In fact, the Twins might have one of the better 3-5 punches around. Add in Gibson and perhaps 1 other and the rotation is average at worst. Bullpen has been excellent.

 

 

Overall, according to Baseball Prospectus, we rank DEAD LAST in the MAJORS in defensive efficiency. Last year we ranked 18th.

[Badsmerf]

Surprised? Yes. Unfortunately, there is no way they hover this close to 500 going forward. The starting pitching has been pretty good the last month, this most certainly wont last. Walters, Deduno, and Correia are all due for regressions. Correia will stick in the low 4 ERA, which is great and makes him a great signing IMO. Walters and Deduno are playing with fire right now.

 

Walters: 3.23 ERA with a WHIP of 1.6 (!). His K/9 is 5.28. Hitters have an .833 OPS against him right now. What is saving him? He is only allowing a 6% HR/FB ratio which is half his career norm and has a 29% double play rate (holy **** that is high). There is absolutely no chance he keeps this up much longer. I anticipate a 5+ ERA in the near future.

 

Deduno: 3.26 ERA. His WHIP is alright at 1.35. What is weird is his K/9 is low at 4.45. Last season it was 6.5. His BB/9 is also down at 3.3 last season it was 6. So while his K rate might increase, his walk rate has a good chance to increase too. The other out-lire is his HR/FB ratio. Right now it is sitting at 3% (holy **** low) last season it was 12.3%. The other peripherals look pretty good. When things normalize for him, I see a high 4 or low 5 ERA coming.

 

It is great these guys have given the Twins some winnable games early and i'm sure they have given more than Terry Ryan ever imagined. He must have been banking on them making a few shaky starts and giving Gibson and Albers the call to replace them. Now, how can you demote guys that have looked great on the surface? Things will play themselves out and I still expect a win total in the low 70's.

[ericchri]

Like many, I expected the Twins to be a little better this year, but not great. Around 72 wins. I figured the offense, defense, and bullpen would be fairly comparable to last year and the starters would improve slightly from absolutely putrid. Honestly, though, it seems like the offense is down, the starters are maybe a hair better than last year, but really not much, and the defense is still pretty shaky. I think the bullpen is probably improved a bit, though Burton's recent outings are a little scary. It's hard to identify how the Twins are putting up a better record this year than last. That's just how baseball is sometimes.

 

Most surprising team? Maybe, if you bought into that Vegas line of 64.5 wins on the year. Record-wide they're a touch better than I expected but not enough that I personally would consider it terribly surprising.

[Mike Sixel]

They are 2 games better than the pace most of us predicted.....that's the margin of error at this point, right? No idea how this is THE most surprising team......

 

Good surprises:

KC and the sunshine band

Thielbar and other relievers

Dozier's defense

Win total

Arcia's readiness

 

Bad surprises:

Willingham

Parmalee

Hicks slow start

Morneau's power

Worley

Gibson in AAA still

[JB_Iowa]

I just hope that Olney is still saying this in late September (and that they are still surprising in a good way).

 

That would truly be a surprise and a season to be grateful for.

 

(I just don't want to get my hopes up after another early June bump although I do recognize that April & May were somewhat better than expected.)

[cmathewson]

Overall, according to Baseball Prospectus, we rank DEAD LAST in the MAJORS in defensive efficiency. Last year we ranked 18th.

 

I'm trying to understand this. Florimon has the best UZR for a Twins shortstop since Hardy. Dozier's been the best since Hudson. Plouffe/Carroll has been better than last year's combination of Valencia and him. Hicks is a slight downgrade from Span. Parm is a slight downgrade from Revere. Otherwise, it's the same team. Overall, it should be better than last year by a significant amount.

[ThePuck]

I'm trying to understand this. Florimon has the best UZR for a Twins shortstop since Hardy. Dozier's been the best since Hudson. Plouffe/Carroll has been better than last year's combination of Valencia and him. Hicks is a slight downgrade from Span. Parm is a slight downgrade from Revere. Otherwise, it's the same team. Overall, it should be better than last year by a significant amount.

 

Well, Hardy wasn't last year. On top of that, you're underestimating how well Revere and Span did last year...Revere had a UZR of 15.4 (with his UZR/150 the best for any RF in the game), Span was 2nd in the majors for CF at 7.7. Hicks and Parmelee have negative UZRs . Nothing slight about the downgrades out there.

 

Additionally, it may all even out over the course of the whole season. Could improve. I'm just providing the data, I didn't create it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm trying to understand this. Florimon has the best UZR for a Twins shortstop since Hardy. Dozier's been the best since Hudson. Plouffe/Carroll has been better than last year's combination of Valencia and him. Hicks is a slight downgrade from Span. Parm is a slight downgrade from Revere. Otherwise, it's the same team. Overall, it should be better than last year by a significant amount.

 

Without looking at the numbers, I'd guess that the OF is killing them this season. Hicks/Parmelee is a massive downgrade from Span/Revere.

[howieramone1406390264]

The eyeball test says they're better defensively than last year.

[ThePuck]

The eyeball test says they're better defensively than last year.

 

Well, that settles it then :-)