Twins' Local Kid Making Good for Second Playoff Season in a Row

[Cody Pirkl]

It seems like a lifetime ago that Matt Wallner struggled to start the year and was demoted to St. Paul. He’s emerged to help save the Twins season, for a second year in a row.

Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The one crippling hole in Matt Wallner’s game reared its head early in the season, when he posted a 51.5% strikeout rate across 33 plate appearances. Wallner spemt much of the first half in the minors, but he came back just before the All-Star break and has been white-hot ever since. While 2023 was worth plenty of praise, he’s been even better in 2024. Still, it doesn’t feel like he gets enough appreciation.

Matt Wallner is approaching an entire season’s worth of plate appearances, spread over three years. After his 2022 debut, in which he posted a .709 OPS in a minimal sample, he emerged as part of the Twins' future in 2023 by posting an .877 OPS. Despite a horrid start to 2024, Wallner carries a .948 OPS so far. We’re left with a slash line of .251/.367/.518 across 158 games and 539 plate appearances. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, that’s elite offensive output, 48% better than the average hitter over that period.

The context of Wallner’s performance, particularly the last two seasons, is also essential. The Twins had a very unimpressive first half of the 2023 season, and Wallner played a massive part in turning the offense around. In 2024, he’s been one of the few bright spots in a lineup missing Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa for much of the second half, while several other expected contributors have struggled. It’s interesting to wonder where the Twins would be in either of the last two years, without Wallner.

Defensively, Wallner has been perfectly fine in the corner outfield. He ranks below average in Outs Above Average, which measures the ground he can cover, but his 99th-percentile arm more than makes up the difference. His defense will never be his calling card, but it is still vital. Next season, with Kepler set to hit free agency, the Twins should have an adequate full-time replacement. What Wallner lacks in defensive metrics, he should more than make up for between his throwing arm and his bat.

The Twins are preparing to slot Wallner right in to replace Kepler in 2025. Not only has Wallner been the one to slide over to right field in Kepler’s absence, but he’s also taken Kepler’s role as the left-handed hitter in the lineup to play every day, regardless of matchup. While he hasn’t fared particularly well against southpaws so far, it’s encouraging that the Twins appear to be preparing him for a full-time role in 2025.

Wallner remains far from a perfect player. His strikeout rate still sits above 35%, but his performance is partially anchored to the start of the season. It’s unlikely that we ever see Wallner significantly cut down the strikeouts like we saw with Trevor Larnach this year, but we’re approaching the point where we have to accept that he’s capable of making it work anyway. He may not be the guy you want up to move a runner over, but his swing-and-miss, high-powered profile is much more of a complement to the current Twins lineup. Without multiple players like Miguel Sanó or Joey Gallo in the fold, the Twins can afford to have someone with Wallner’s profile playing every day.

The perception of Wallner has probably skewed toward him being underrated. Strikeouts are frustrating, and Wallner is one of the few hitters left in the Twins lineup who commit the mortal sin of striking out over 30% of the time. Last offseason, some accused Wallner of having a fluky second half that was sure to come crashing down due to his strikeout issues. They were proven right early on in 2024, and for some, that handful of early plate appearances may still carry weight in their mind.

Matt Wallner’s numbers in his career are elite. After helping save the Twins offense in 2023, he’s done it again in 2024. For those who detest strikeouts to the point that nothing else a hitter does matters, Wallner will continue to be doubted. For those watching the impact he makes in the lineup every day, they know they’re watching a star offensive player.

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[LambchoP]

Wally's been fun to watch lately. He truly has that game changing power. If he can both stay healthy and keep his strikeouts in check, I can see him hitting in the middle of our lineup and playing right field for a lot of years. I'd say a 2025 season of hitting .250-.270 with 25-30 HR is well within reach. He should be a good Kepler replacement in RF with that cannon arm of his too. Here's to a productive playoff streak!

[Karbo]

The difference this year between early season Wallner and post all star Wallner is night and day. Take his bat out of this lineup, especially w/o Buxton and Correa and a slumping Lewis and this lineup looks pretty feeble.

[FlyingFinn]

Hard to believe anyone would want Kepler over Wallner next year. Great job by Wallner and the coaches in fixing the hole in his swing this spring.

[Blyleven2011]

Wallner has been good and hopefully  will continue on getting better during the seasons ,  what concerns me is the playoffs when your facing better pitching  ,, he hasn't proven anything there  yet , 11 plate appearances , no hits  , 3 walks and 5 strikeouts  in 8 at bats

[chpettit19]

Matt has made my "he'll come back a little and be a 120-130 OPS+ type bat" stance look awfully silly since his recall. And 120-130 OPS+ is a top-50ish bat in MLB! He's certainly looking like a top-10-15 bat in MLB if he doesn't have anymore crazy stretches where he's completely lost like the first couple months this season.

He seems like a very hard worker who puts a lot of thought and effort into perfecting his craft. I expect him to have learned from last offseason into this season and come out mashing from the jump in 2025. If you can plant a bat like that in the 2 to 4 hole everyday (yes, everyday, including against lefties) you've got an awfully nice starting point for a nice offense.

He'll never be Max in right, but his arm helps make up for some of his lack of natural fielding instincts, and the more he plays RF at Target field the more comfortable he'll get and be able to improve his overall defense. 

The unfortunate thing for Matt is he's going to be 27 next year and he's not even knocking on the arbitration door yet. He'll have 1 shot at a big pay day in his early 30s. If he keeps doing what he's doing he can still get some really impressive financial numbers going for himself, but his window is a little tighter than the average MLB superstar.

[jkcarew]

The K-rate has been nearly 33% even during the good months.

Since he doesn’t take a ton of walks (even taking into account his high HBP rate), his value is extremely dependent on high HR% AND high BABiP.

History tells us this is a tenuous path. Feast can turn to famine.

In the meantime, it’s been feast. And I agree, at least in theory, that you can absorb a little more of the famine if you don’t already have a lineup littered with this profile.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Wallner has really helped carry this team offensively in the second half of the year. I agree with a previous poster in that I can easily see him being a .250 – .270, 30+ HR guy next year with an OPS north of .850. Yes, he's nowhere near as good defensively as Kepler but is adequate out there and could over time become above average because of the arm strength. He's a good guy to have on your team and can be an anchor in the middle of the lineup ideally hitting in the 5 or 6 hole, and even in the 4 hole if we have to. I would love to see Lewis mature the way I think he can to hit 4 next year, with Wallner 5 and Miranda 6.

The strikeouts are definitely a problem, which is why would hit him 5 instead of 4. Still, we can live with one guy in the order with that level of power who strikes out over 33% of the time. The big thing to keep in mind as we can deal with 1 guy who does that, not multiple guys. 

[NYCTK]

I've made my feelings on Matt Wallner known before. Happy to see him succeed, but I do think the Twins need to have a 4th OF that is able to hit lefties decent enough in the event that Wallner's inability to hit LHP persists. I do think a likely situation is the 4th OF having to share duties with Wallner in RF next season. 

This is a bit of a concern since our starting CF is also someone we know has to have a competent backup since he can't be expected to play 75 games in the field. Both of these players needing a planned competent backup is a huge burden on the front office in terms of roster construction.

Castro can fill in, but an actual 4th OF is needed. Because much like this season, I'd expect them to get as many, if not more, starts as the starting 3. Case in point, useless 4th OF Margot is tied for the lead in OF appearances the next time he comes in. How pathetic is that? 

[chpettit19]

55 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I've made my feelings on Matt Wallner known before. Happy to see him succeed, but I do think the Twins need to have a 4th OF that is able to hit lefties decent enough in the event that Wallner's inability to hit LHP persists. I do think a likely situation is the 4th OF having to share duties with Wallner in RF next season. 

This is a bit of a concern since our starting CF is also someone we know has to have a competent backup since he can't be expected to play 75 games in the field. Both of these players needing a planned competent backup is a huge burden on the front office in terms of roster construction.

Castro can fill in, but an actual 4th OF is needed. Because much like this season, I'd expect them to get as many, if not more, starts as the starting 3. Case in point, useless 4th OF Margot is tied for the lead in OF appearances the next time he comes in. How pathetic is that? 

I think a lot of that will depend on what the rest of the roster looks like. You can't platoon them all. Wallner has a .697 OPS against lefties this year. League average OPS is .712. He's OPSed very well against them in the high minors (.848 last year, .911 in 2022) in over 300 ABs. They can't platoon them all and Wallner should be the one they give the chance to see what he can do. 

Would you rather have Wallner face lefties or have the Farmers and Margots of the world face righties? I don't think it should even be a question. Wallner has a better OPS against lefties than Martin, Farmer, or Margot have against righties. His OPS against lefties is better than Kepler (.682), Martin (.669), Farmer (.668), Julien (.660), Kirilloff (.653), Margot (.652), Vazquez (.607), and Lee (.586) have done overall this year. And that's with sporadic ABs against them here and there.

If they're not going to let Wallner get a shot against lefties with those numbers we should be pretty worried whether or not they'll let Emma or Jenkins do it when they get here. And if they're going to turn all their young lefties into platoon bats they're going to severely handicap their team.

[IaBeanCounter]

Why does Wallner have so many HBP?  Almost 6% of his PA end with a HBP.  Is he like Don Baylor who didn't try to get out the way of an inside pitch?

[DocBauer]

To be honest @chpettit19 pretty much said what I was going to. But I'm still going to add a nit.

MILB success doesn't guarantee anything at the ML level. However, his career MILB quad slash is .271/ .379/ .517/ .896. Over his 3 ML seasons thus far, despite some ups and downs...literally...hes carrying numbers of .251/ .367/ .518/ .885. So far, his ML numbers have surprisingly paralleled his MILB numbers.

While in the minors, what he always did was reach a level, struggle a little, then figure it out and adjust. He's done the same thing at the ML level so far in his young career. While you don't WANT 35% K's, he's always maintained a solid AVG and OB%. That compliments his power, and is "livable" if you don't have a bunch of other high K batters in your lineup. But I can see him continuing to grow and learn and drop his K rate down closer to 30%. That makes a difference over a season.

Defensively, he won't match Kepler. But the truth is, Wallner runs quite well and is pretty fast. The problem is it takes him a couple steps to get going full speed. And he was a RF almost exclusively in the minors, before playing mostly LF when with the Twins. That takes at least a little bit of adjustment time. On top of that, RF in Target has a few nuances he has to get used to. Again, that means adjustment time. 

Time to "read" the balls better in RF, a solid athlete, good speed even with a mediocre "start", combined with an accurate CANNON of an arm, he'll be solid, if not good, in RF. And while he'll never be vintage Kepler in RF, I'll take solid...potentially good overall...and a bigger, better bat.

I do think he's undervalued by some at this point. And if you focus only on K's and not being Max in RF, we'll, you might never appreciate him, unfortunately. But if he's solid in RF with big production, appreciation SHOULD grow. I'm a fan and believer.

[terrydactyls]

Here is a little piece of interesting mathematics.  If Wallner plays full time in 2025, he should get about 550 official at bats.  A 35% strike out rate would mean 192.5 strikeouts in 2025.  If he drops his strikeout rate to 30%, he would have 165 strikeouts in 2025.  That's 27.5 less.  Over a 162 game season, that's one strikeout fewer every 5.9 games.  IMHO - big deal.  Let Matt Wallner be Matt Wallner.

[Otaknam]

It’s great to see Wallner showing  improvement as the year progressed. His power is elite, as is his rifle arm. I’m  not a big fan of totally dismissing strikeouts for power idea, an overrated trend amongst the analytics crowd. But Wallner’s strikeout issues are of less concern if the rest of the lineup can make contact, unlike last year’s team. 

[RpR]

7 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'm old enough to remember Harmon Killebrew with a high strikeout rate blend in fine with Tovar, Carew, and Tony O who were high bat-to-ball contact guys.  It can work for Matty.

Wallne is not even close, to the bat Killebrew had, on his best day.

Bob Allison maybe without the fielding skills.

[Road trip]

On 9/13/2024 at 1:39 PM, jkcarew said:

The K-rate has been nearly 33% even during the good months.

Since he doesn’t take a ton of walks (even taking into account his high HBP rate), his value is extremely dependent on high HR% AND high BABiP.

History tells us this is a tenuous path. Feast can turn to famine.

In the meantime, it’s been feast. And I agree, at least in theory, that you can absorb a little more of the famine if you don’t already have a lineup littered with this profile.

Actually, he is well above average on OBP when you take into account his HPB.  His career bb% is over 10% which is above average (MLB approximately 8%).  Add in all of his HPB and he has an on base percentage of .364 for his career.  That's very good, more than 120 points better than his batting average and well above the MLB average OPB of .330

I don't know if he can sustain the HBP... that may be somewhat a fluke, and frankly even dinosaur bones will break at some point.  But if he keeps his bb% above 9% he will continue to get on base plenty.

[jkcarew]

On 9/14/2024 at 9:51 AM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'm old enough to remember Harmon Killebrew with a high strikeout rate blend in fine with Tovar…

During the entire decade of the 60’s (his prime) the HIGHEST K% Killebrew had was 21%….and he averaged a K rate of about 15%-16% during the decade.

Walner’s K rate is a little over 100% higher. Not really a legitimate comparison at all.