Cardinals 3, Twins 2: Key Error Dooms Twins in 9th, Cardinals Take Series

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, USAFChief said:

He pitched well. Really well.

But of course the most pitches he's thrown in a game in his professional career is 92. So he's out of the game after five, and you need 4 IP from the pen, minimum, every time he pitches. Same for Festa.

They don't throw innings in the minors either (105 across all of 2023, for example) so here we sit worried about innings in August. For most of our starters. 

I will never understand why they choose to not prepare their pitchers for the big leagues.

“They” not preparing guys, is nearly every Team in MLB. Last year Twins were #1 in starter innings per outing through July - not sure where they finished.

This year, with Paddack being injury prone, Varland struggling, SWR - Festa - Matthews as Rookies………much shorter starts on average for the rotation.

Training for longer starts/more innings from starters is an issue across baseball - not just in Minneapolis. Major injuries are common because what is taught/promoted in minors is MAX velocity.

Bailey Ober is the oddity in today’s game with an innings average of nearly 6 per start. Max velocity 91-92mph.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Stop. 

Perhaps it is you who should stop. The Twins spend above their attendance and above anyone else in their division. Never, since 1984, have I been a fan of the Pohlads. I have disagreed that they saved the franchise. However, the nonstop whining about the roster budget is beyond old. Look around maybe ... at Milwaukee, Kansas City, and Cleveland. The owners do not scout or sign players. They have almost zero knowledge about baseball. The PBO, GM, and other hired hands put the teams together. So, it is Falvey & Sons who put it all together and they had plenty of resources at their disposal, financial or otherwise. 

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Prior to the new three hitter minimum (2020), a relief pitcher had to complete one PA, or record one out, whichever came first, before he could be replaced.

The manager on offense always has had the last substitution opportunity. 

The manager on defense waits until the pinch hitter has been announced, because the player isn't officially in the game until then.

 

 

I understand & would have agreed 24 hours ago with exactly what you said (I guess I didn’t get the offense can keep substituting, even after first guy is announced). So you cleared up that only one pitcher change was allowed previously - at least until he threw one pitch. Obviously, now the 3 batter rule clarifies the defensive options.

[Schmoeman5]

3 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Polanco makes that play in his sleep.   He probably makes the earlier play where Julien looked like a little leaguer.   Rocco said afterwards that "Julien makes that play 99 times out of 100".    If that is so, why do you replace him defensively in most games in late innings?

Because he was exaggerating. He knows that Julien really makes that play 82 times out of 100. But hey. 82% is still a passing score.  Isn't it?

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the money had something to do with things

I should have quoted your entire post and I know there is a relative roster budget which means money is a reality. We both know that Yankee/Dodger budgets are not a thing for the Twins. The Twins are sitting above the division in spending and well above their attendance ranking in terms of spending. Of course money enters into decisions in life. I like that pretty new Porsche 911 but settle for an Audi 8; hardly a problem. My point, last winter and now, is that the baseball player roster decisions are made by Falvey and his group. I'm not criticizing those decisions even when I disagree (I do), but I also think ownership has no knowledge of whom to add or trade for in order to put a team together. Twins Daily hasn't had a day in forever where a comment didn't put a loss on ownership, which is off base. Falvey chooses the roster and the players play. The wins and losses are on the players.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

This says it all - PH Rocco strikes again.  Arguably we replace our current best hitter with our worst hitter.  Way to go Rocco.  And I love Lewis as a PH, but for our other best hitter of this month - Larnach?

 

Nice try, but Julien cost us one game in 162 - Gary blew a championship.

Lewis doubled to put the Twins ahead & you’re still second guessing the managing??? …..,just don’t get it …any offensive move/substitution at the plate is GREAT if it works 30% (.300 BA) of the time. It’s baseball - not certainty

[David Maro]

Complaining about the BP in this game is crazy.Sands and Jax were solid and Duran got a double play ground ball to second.Julien was bad the whole game and needed to be replaced way before the 9th.Hopefully Lee will replaced him on the roster today.Rocco thinks he is playing chess and the other manager is playing checkers.But time and time again he loses that game.

Why on earth would Farmer jump the first pitch.He was PHing and a new pitcher,take one to see what he has.He needed to get the ball in play to the right side or outfield only.That run is and was important.

[JD-TWINS]

10 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I understand & would have agreed 24 hours ago with exactly what you said (I guess I didn’t get the offense can keep substituting, even after first guy is announced). So you cleared up that only one pitcher change was allowed previously - at least until he threw one pitch. Obviously, now the 3 batter rule clarifies the defensive options.

USAFChief……..I completely agreed with your synopsis on the pinch hitter/pitcher replacement explanation and I still get a Thumbs Down from you??? Bitter?

[mickster]

14 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

Twins need to demote Julian and move on from him in the offseason. He just doesn't have major league defensive skills.. period. We have way too many options there to continue with the "experiment" while on the job. 

We should have parted with him at the deadline, but would have been a sell low.    

[Riverbrian]

33 minutes ago, David Maro said:

Why on earth would Farmer jump the first pitch.He was PHing and a new pitcher,take one to see what he has.He needed to get the ball in play to the right side or outfield only.That run is and was important.

I basically agree with this. Taking a look at a new pitcher as a pinch hitter makes sense. 

However... If I remember right. 

Wasn't that first pitch a dead center fastball in the low 90's. The type of pitch that someone better looking first pitch fastball would have deposited in the seats? 

I didn't research it after the fact but I remember watching it and thinking to myself. Damn... that thing was down the middle. How do you pop that up? 

[Danchat]

5 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Polanco makes that play in his sleep.   He probably makes the earlier play where Julien looked like a little leaguer.   Rocco said afterwards that "Julien makes that play 99 times out of 100".    If that is so, why do you replace him defensively in most games in late innings?

Except for a similar play Jorge threw away in the playoffs against the Astros…

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Except for a similar play Jorge threw away in the playoffs against the Astros…

I think people forget how mediocre Polanco was on defense.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll keep preaching Mike. But... you'll give me a thumbs down eventually, 

Because what I'm preaching is why you keep Polanco in the off-season. Instead of trading him for lesser players. 

Yes... I fully admit that I would probably be complaining about Polanco if he was still on the roster hitting like he has been hitting. 

I'd worry about both of us if we always agreed....

[LambchoP]

All of the early season talk about "Julien's improved defense" has been completely de bunked over the past two weeks. He's a liability out there. Thankfully it looks like Lee is healthy so he should be playing second while Julien gets sent down. I realize Correa is going to be out a while longer, but Farmer has no business being on this roster. Eales or Castillo would be a better bench player I've got to believe. And if Kepler is going on the IL now, it's the perfect time to give Keirsey Jr a shot. He could be a real spark plug for this lineup. He can play all three OF positions. Would much rather see him out there than the liability defense of Margot. Our bullpen is gassed. Call up Winder and stick Varland and maybe Morris out there. With Festa and Zebby only throwing 4-5 innings, we're going to need guys that can piggyback them and throw 2-3 innings. Varland and Morris could do that. Also think they should grab Tonkin off waivers and release Richards. Sure it'll look bad and show everyone how bad our deadline was, but the dude provides negative value. In a playoff chase, we can't have it. Him and Farmer, time to cut off some dead wood like they did with Okert.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd worry about both of us if we always agreed....

I never worry much about you. 

I worry about me all the time. 

[Riverbrian]

On Julien's defense. 

I get that there are better defensive infielders available to roster. However... I've largely been OK with his defensive work knowing that there are better defensive infielders out there. I think the combination of his bat and glove both need to be considerations. He still needs work on both but I really like the potential of his bat.  

This particular play yesterday. It was a routine grounder with a routine throw. Maybe on the slow grounder side so it may have needed to be rushed a bit to complete the double play.  

I expect him to make that play 98 out of 100 times. With a 50-50 shot at the DP.

It was a routine grounder with a routine throw. The timing was very very very unfortunate and I realize that he will be hung as a result. 

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

On Julien's defense. 

I get that there are better defensive infielders available to roster. However... I've largely been OK with his defensive work knowing that there are better defensive infielders out there. I think the combination of his bat and glove both need to be considerations. He still needs work on both but I really like the potential of his bat.  

This particular play yesterday. It was a routine grounder with a routine throw. Maybe on the slow grounder side so it may have needed to be rushed a bit to complete the double play.  

I expect him to make that play 98 out of 100 times. With a 50-50 shot at the DP.

It was a routine grounder with a routine throw. The timing was very very very unfortunate and I realize that he will be hung as a result. 

I actually don't think it was going to be a DP. Too slow, and Julien didn't charge the grounder at all.

But obviously plenty of time to get the force.

I, too, think Julien's defense is a little better this year, which isn't saying much.

I doubt he'll ever be even average. He's stiff, with stone hands. That's almost impossible to refine past "acceptable."

 

 

[David Maro]

Great news the Braves are going with a LP so Rocco will have Margot and Farmer in the lineup tonight.That means Ober will need his best stuff.Don't look for Buxton or Correa until KC or Cleveland series.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I should have quoted your entire post and I know there is a relative roster budget which means money is a reality. We both know that Yankee/Dodger budgets are not a thing for the Twins. The Twins are sitting above the division in spending and well above their attendance ranking in terms of spending. Of course money enters into decisions in life. I like that pretty new Porsche 911 but settle for an Audi 8; hardly a problem. My point, last winter and now, is that the baseball player roster decisions are made by Falvey and his group. I'm not criticizing those decisions even when I disagree (I do), but I also think ownership has no knowledge of whom to add or trade for in order to put a team together. Twins Daily hasn't had a day in forever where a comment didn't put a loss on ownership, which is off base. Falvey chooses the roster and the players play. The wins and losses are on the players.

But the money ownership allows the front office to spend matters. Falvey chooses players based on the finances he has available. Pretending the Pohlads cutting payroll by 30ish million didn't effect the decisions the FO made is being willfully ignorant. Of course it effects the decisions. 

I didn't make any comment on ownership being the cause for the loss. You added the money statement to the conversation. Attendance isn't the driving factor on payroll, but I don't think I'd consider them "well above their attendance ranking." They were 22nd in attendance last year and are in the 19 to low 20s in payroll this year depending on your source. That seems pretty in line to me. Especially considering they were likely expecting to add to their attendance numbers coming off a playoff series win last year. They didn't add attendance largely because of the financial decisions ownership made. Which is their right to do, it's their team. So now they're 24th in attendance this year. So I still wouldn't consider their 19-22ish payroll ranking to be "well above" their attendance rank.

But the bottom line on spending and team building is that I completely disagree that you can separate the 2 things. The amount of money you have changes how you build your team and which players you pick. Yes, the wins and losses are on the players. But separating ownership from the FO completely is also off base.

[Riverbrian]

21 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I actually don't think it was going to be a DP. Too slow, and Julien didn't charge the grounder at all.

But obviously plenty of time to get the force.

I, too, think Julien's defense is a little better this year, which isn't saying much.

I doubt he'll ever be even average. He's stiff, with stone hands. That's almost impossible to refine past "acceptable."

 

 

No argument from me. 

Other than I'm not ready to make any declarations on defensive ability future. 

I'll just say that Bono learned to play guitar, piano and harmonica after U2 had become world famous and he may never be the edge but he's up on stage with that thing from time to time. 

To be honest... I'm not sure when Bono learned to play guitar, piano and harmonica. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I basically agree with this. Taking a look at a new pitcher as a pinch hitter makes sense. 

However... If I remember right. 

Wasn't that first pitch a dead center fastball in the low 90's. The type of pitch that someone better looking first pitch fastball would have deposited in the seats? 

I didn't research it after the fact but I remember watching it and thinking to myself. Damn... that thing was down the middle. How do you pop that up? 

[Riverbrian]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Maybe not dead center but pretty close. 

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

But the money ownership allows the front office to spend matters. Falvey chooses players based on the finances he has available. Pretending the Pohlads cutting payroll by 30ish million didn't effect the decisions the FO made is being willfully ignorant. Of course it effects the decisions. 

I didn't make any comment on ownership being the cause for the loss. You added the money statement to the conversation. Attendance isn't the driving factor on payroll, but I don't think I'd consider them "well above their attendance ranking." They were 22nd in attendance last year and are in the 19 to low 20s in payroll this year depending on your source. That seems pretty in line to me. Especially considering they were likely expecting to add to their attendance numbers coming off a playoff series win last year. They didn't add attendance largely because of the financial decisions ownership made. Which is their right to do, it's their team. So now they're 24th in attendance this year. So I still wouldn't consider their 19-22ish payroll ranking to be "well above" their attendance rank.

But the bottom line on spending and team building is that I completely disagree that you can separate the 2 things. The amount of money you have changes how you build your team and which players you pick. Yes, the wins and losses are on the players. But separating ownership from the FO completely is also off base.

I guess I never believed that payroll for 2024 would be above $130 million. When John Bonnes suggested $170M and TD set it at $150M, it seemed unbelievable. I set one at TD price but set my second chart at what I originally believed ($120M). 

Whereas other sports have spending floors and ceilings, baseball is almost exclusively tied to market, attendance, and media money. The Twins have to swim in Milwaukee range as far as spending for the most part. It's just a reality.

Of course, ownership and FO have a price/budget in mind. I don't believe ownership has anything to do with which players are added, traded for, etc. The basic numbers are set and then Falvey+ puts together the team. The players available last winter for a higher salary or via trade were not particularly attractive to me, except for Juan Soto. That wasn't going to happen but at a $150M budget I put it down. He doesn't make the team at $120M. I'm wondering who the Twins would have added with another year at $150M? The top choice on TD was Jordan Montgomery. Anyway that's a moot point.

Perhaps I cannot see past what I saw as an egregious bungling of the trade of Polanco for nothing. Everyone seemed to believe/know Polanco was going to be cut loose somehow. They saved something like $5.5M but also kept Farmer at $6.6M. Tough to see how this saved money. So, while I'm adding nonsense items I just think that the team we have is what Falvey put together. It's a good team and I'm not complaining but the realism of budgets means there would be a limit. Count me as one person who did not understand how the Twins could spend at 2023 levels or higher because I saw it as an outlier that would have a short life. Did Falvey know that 18+ months ago? Probably. It's his team in the sense that PBO/GMs put the roster together.

My expectation/guess is that 2025 will see a budget from $125-135 million. Falvey knows well ahead of time what he has to work with and gets to choose how he goes about putting the pieces together. 

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I guess I never believed that payroll for 2024 would be above $130 million. When John Bonnes suggested $170M and TD set it at $150M, it seemed unbelievable. I set one at TD price but set my second chart at what I originally believed ($120M). 

Whereas other sports have spending floors and ceilings, baseball is almost exclusively tied to market, attendance, and media money. The Twins have to swim in Milwaukee range as far as spending for the most part. It's just a reality.

Of course, ownership and FO have a price/budget in mind. I don't believe ownership has anything to do with which players are added, traded for, etc. The basic numbers are set and then Falvey+ puts together the team. The players available last winter for a higher salary or via trade were not particularly attractive to me, except for Juan Soto. That wasn't going to happen but at a $150M budget I put it down. He doesn't make the team at $120M. I'm wondering who the Twins would have added with another year at $150M? The top choice on TD was Jordan Montgomery. Anyway that's a moot point.

Perhaps I cannot see past what I saw as an egregious bungling of the trade of Polanco for nothing. Everyone seemed to believe/know Polanco was going to be cut loose somehow. They saved something like $5.5M but also kept Farmer at $6.6M. Tough to see how this saved money. So, while I'm adding nonsense items I just think that the team we have is what Falvey put together. It's a good team and I'm not complaining but the realism of budgets means there would be a limit. Count me as one person who did not understand how the Twins could spend at 2023 levels or higher because I saw it as an outlier that would have a short life. Did Falvey know that 18+ months ago? Probably. It's his team in the sense that PBO/GMs put the roster together.

My expectation/guess is that 2025 will see a budget from $125-135 million. Falvey knows well ahead of time what he has to work with and gets to choose how he goes about putting the pieces together. 

I'm not sure Falvey knew what his future budgets were going to be when he signed everyone he signed. It's an ever moving target. And this last offseason was even more hard to predict than usual because of the TV deal being up in the air. And ownership does have something to do with which players are added, traded for, etc. If you're just talking Pohlads they seem to stay out of player decisions for the most part, but they're consulted, especially for deals like Correa. Other owners are much more involved (the Angels and Rockies being examples of it being a really bad idea most of the time).

Ownership isn't oblivious to who they're bringing in or trading away. There's a solid chance they were involved in talks about who to trade, especially when it comes to trading a long-time fan favorite like Polanco. That's a move that also effects the business side of things as certain segments of the fanbase will be upset when you trade their favorite players. Ownership is involved in all of this, but the Pohlads do seem to just let their guys do their thing for the most part. But a big deal was made about the new baby Pohlad having an office at Target Field and being there basically everyday. There were articles written about it on multiple sites. I don't think he's dictating moves often, if at all, but he's involved in everything. He has to sign off on every deal they make.

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Perhaps it is you who should stop. The Twins spend above their attendance and above anyone else in their division. Never, since 1984, have I been a fan of the Pohlads. I have disagreed that they saved the franchise. However, the nonstop whining about the roster budget is beyond old. Look around maybe ... at Milwaukee, Kansas City, and Cleveland. The owners do not scout or sign players. They have almost zero knowledge about baseball. The PBO, GM, and other hired hands put the teams together. So, it is Falvey & Sons who put it all together and they had plenty of resources at their disposal, financial or otherwise. 

Ownership slashed payroll to Metrodome era spending relative to the rest of the league this offseason.

If you want to pretend that kneecapping this team during the offseason and the last two deadlines hasn't negatively impacted the club don't let me stop you, but that's a horrible take, and it's infinitely more tiresome than the "nonstop whining," about the budget...

[Aggies7]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Sorry, nonconcur.

How can Mathews be "ready to throw 100 pitches" when he's never done it? Not once, minors or majors.

And Festa? Festa has 8 starts. Max pitches? 82. He has thrown less than 80 in 5 of the 8 starts. He hasn't gone more than 5 innings in any of the 8 starts. He had a 2 hit shutout, with 9 K's against the Cubs...and went 5 innings. 

Even Woods-Richardson has thrown 100 pitches ONCE this entire season. Once.

It will be really interesting to see what happens if MLB implements the 6 inning minimum for starting pitchers.

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Ownership slashed payroll to Metrodome era spending relative to the rest of the league this offseason.

If you want to pretend that kneecapping this team during the offseason and the last two deadlines hasn't negatively impacted the club don't let me stop you, but that's a horrible take, and it's infinitely more tiresome than the "nonstop whining," about the budget...

Good lord. 2023 was an anomaly and an expectation for same or more was never any part of reality. I could care less about the Pohlads or the budget. If you are looking for big spending you are a fan of the wrong team.

A trade for A. J. Puk could have been made, easily. He wasn't a player the Twins had an interest in acquiring. Instead the team traded for Richards. Falvey said on several occasions that trades for other players were not made specifically because the cost in prospects was too dear. Actually, I agreed with Falvey on not trading players like Lee, Matthews, Festa, EmRod, Jenkins, or other highly thought of prospects. Choices get made.

[KirbyDome89]

6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Good lord. 2023 was an anomaly and an expectation for same or more was never any part of reality. I could care less about the Pohlads or the budget. If you are looking for big spending you are a fan of the wrong team.

A trade for A. J. Puk could have been made, easily. He wasn't a player the Twins had an interest in acquiring. Instead the team traded for Richards. Falvey said on several occasions that trades for other players were not made specifically because the cost in prospects was too dear. Actually, I agreed with Falvey on not trading players like Lee, Matthews, Festa, EmRod, Jenkins, or other highly thought of prospects. Choices get made.

No, it wasn't, they sat in nearly the same position just a few years prior. Big spending? Lol, when did having an average payroll become "big spending?" We're moving the goalposts now...

If we're talking about which relief arm with a salary under $1M this team could've acquired at the deadline to patch a unit that was falling apart you're making my argument for me. Yes, Falvey made choices, and yes, he gets to share in some of the criticism, but the fact that the ownership imposed restrictions under which he is forced to make these decisions is being hand waived seems disingenuous at best. 

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

No, it wasn't, they sat in nearly the same position just a few years prior. Big spending? Lol, when did having an average payroll become "big spending?" We're moving the goalposts now...

If we're talking about which relief arm with a salary under $1M this team could've acquired at the deadline to patch a unit that was falling apart you're making my argument for me. Yes, Falvey made choices, and yes, he gets to share in some of the criticism, but the fact that the ownership imposed restrictions under which he is forced to make these decisions is being hand waived seems disingenuous at best. 

I was under the impression that 2023 was nearly $20M more than the next highest payroll, in large part due to Correa. I may be mistaken. It seems that 2023 was higher than previous years by a decent amount. 

As far as acquiring players, we are not likely to agree on who was the best guy(s) to add at the trade deadline. I mentioned Puk. The only other reliever I was really interested in was Erceg. KC gave up three players for him, two rated as middle prospects and an unranked guy. Yes, the Twins would have had to part with a potential future piece (players in the #15-30 range) for Erceg, but that is the cost of a big arm. I was not interested in Tanner Scott at the same price and San Diego paid more. Puk cost about the same as Erceg. So I preferred both Erceg and Puk, but others disagree. Salary was not what I was looking at. Juan Soto is not available. Falvey didn't like the idea of trading his prospects so he held on to the team he put together because he still believes that team will win the AL Central or at least gain the playoffs. 

Does anyone believe that ownership is familiar with all of the Twins prospects? I don't,  but I believe Falvey does.

[wabene]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

If they're throwing fewer pitches and getting hurt more, I'd consider the possibility I'm doing it wrong.

 

At the very least, if I want my starters to be capable of going 100+ pitches per start, and more than 5 innings per start, I'd train and condition them to that standard.

That way, I don't ask Mathews to come into a pennant chase and force him to do things he's never done before. Or shut him down. 

And need 4 innings minimum from the pen every time 40 percent of the rotation starts.

For your first paragraph it seems like you are working hard not to admit that throwing harder with more spin might have something to do with all the injuries. Obviously I don't have the answers, but this makes sense to me as at least part of the reason there are more injuries. 

The rest of your post I completely agree with. But, you might have to wait longer than you want to get your young pitchers up when they are needed.