The Twins Should Swing Big

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This part is all false.

As has been explained multiple times, if Snell exercises his option, it's for $15M in 2025, $15M in 2027. Not $38M in 2025.

And why would there be no QO?

I do agree the Tigers have no reason to trade Skubal though.

There would be no QO on Snell because it was put on him last year, and no player can get the QO twice.  When I look at Snell's contract, what I see is that the Giants paid him $15M this year, and will have to pay him $17M in January 2026, regardless of whether he's on the team.  That leaves $30M that he would be walking away from if he opts out (payable as you outlined above).  So not $38M, but still $30M; in my opinion, that's a lot of money to say no to.  Especially when you consider that he struggled to find a contact last year, coming off a Cy Young season, albeit with a QO attached.  Boras tends to push his clients to bet on themselves, so I would not be surprised if the play, barring a string of great starts down the stretch, is to take the $30M, and aim for a year of health and production, then get the logical evolution of the Sonny Gray contract for 2026, say 4/$120 with a club option for $20M and $5M buyout as year 5.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

There would be no QO on Snell because it was put on him last year, and no player can get the QO twice.  When I look at Snell's contract, what I see is that the Giants paid him $15M this year, and will have to pay him $17M in January 2026, regardless of whether he's on the team.  That leaves $30M that he would be walking away from if he opts out (payable as you outlined above).  So not $38M, but still $30M; in my opinion, that's a lot of money to say no to.  Especially when you consider that he struggled to find a contact last year, coming off a Cy Young season, albeit with a QO attached.  Boras tends to push his clients to bet on themselves, so I would not be surprised if the play, barring a string of great starts down the stretch, is to take the $30M, and aim for a year of health and production, then get the logical evolution of the Sonny Gray contract for 2026, say 4/$120 with a club option for $20M and $5M buyout as year 5.

He's opting out.

But if he doesn't, great! 1 year of an ace for $15m and $15m deferred? Where do I sign?

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

He is a righty, yes but is good against lefties for his career. Okert and Thielbar are the two most obvious spots to upgrade, IMHO. Doesn't necessarily have to be a lefty.

Might want to pump the brakes on Sims is good against lefties.  In 2024 he k's 6.09/9 while walking 4.73/9 against lefties.  He has a 5.56 FIP and 6.08 xFIP against lefties.  The only thing he's doing well is limiting hard contact, leading to an absurdly low BABIP, so there's a ton of regression possibility there.

For his career, he k's 9.85/9 and walks 5.69/9 against lefties, with a 5.00 FIP and 5.57 xFIP, so not even safe to say he's good against lefties for his career.  Both Okert and Thielbar are very clearly superior options against lefties; the problem is they're not as good against righties as Sims, so once they get the one guy out, you might be stuck for 2 more batters.

That said, if your goal is to improve the guy you use against lefties, he kinda has to be actually good against lefties, or do you really want Sims facing Alvarez down 3-2 in the 7th?

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

That leaves $30M that he would be walking away from if he opts out

And $150M he would be walking away from if he opts in.

[Cap'n Piranha]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

He's opting out.

But if he doesn't, great! 1 year of an ace for $15m and $15m deferred? Where do I sign?

In the context of the original post I was responding to, Snell not opting out is not great; the poster's contention was the Tigers could replace the traded Skubal by signing Snell in FA.  It's hard to do that when he opts in to his contract with the Giants.

I don't doubt that he will most likely opt out; Boras doesn't get paid again until he signs a new contract.  I'm just saying that seems like a pretty short-sighted move for a guy who should have very fresh memories of being unable to get the contract he wanted, while understanding that every metric except one (the lack of a QO) makes him less desirable going into 2025 than 2024.

[USAFChief]

Just now, Cap'n Piranha said:

In the context of the original post I was responding to, Snell not opting out is not great; the poster's contention was the Tigers could replace the traded Skubal by signing Snell in FA.  It's hard to do that when he opts in to his contract with the Giants.

I don't doubt that he will most likely opt out; Boras doesn't get paid again until he signs a new contract.  I'm just saying that seems like a pretty short-sighted move for a guy who should have very fresh memories of being unable to get the contract he wanted, while understanding that every metric except one (the lack of a QO) makes him less desirable going into 2025 than 2024.

Again, so much the better.

 

[Hans Birkeland]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Sorry dude but as soon as you wrote that Jenkins, Rodriguez, Lee & Matthews should be in play you lost all credibility.  You don't get better when your best players play for other teams.  Or your best prospects.  Some lines can't be crossed. End of story.

 

Can't lose what I never had!

[Cap'n Piranha]

Just now, DJL44 said:

And $150M he would be walking away from if he opts in.

Again, he was $90 MILLION SHORT of $150M last year, when he was younger, had just won the Cy Young, and had not been injured; the only drag on a multiyear contract he has shed from last offseason is the QO.  Are you really saying that teams value the worth of the draft pick they lose at $90M?  In what world does an objectively worse version of a player get a FA contract worth 2.5x a previous FA contract?

[strumdatjag]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

False.

Houston paid a steep price, but not even close to your claim.

#9 and #13, plus Loporfido, per MLB. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/yusei-kikuchi-astros-blue-jays-trade

 

My bad.  I got my info from another source that must have been wrong. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Again, so much the better.

 

I don't know what this means.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I don't know what this means.

Any team in baseball would love Snell on a 1 year deal, with only $15M due in 2025.

[Cap'n Piranha]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Any team in baseball would love Snell on a 1 year deal, with only $15M due in 2025.

Agreed--because it's a one year deal for $30M total.  I don't know what that has to do with the hypothetical of the Tigers signing him this offseason, or my continued assertion that no team in baseball would want him on a 5 year $150M deal.

[Markdumont25]

5 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Additional context. I'm sure some will defend the Pohlad's but I can't bring myself to do it when literally every other team in baseball is doing something - whether its contenders shoring up their team for the stretch run or teams trying to rebuild for the future.

I know there's a few out there, but I don't know who can defend the Pohlads with a straight face. I suppose there could be an argument from the perspective of a draconian adherence to maximizing every dollar possible...but when you own a sports franchise you own a pillar of the community and you should have a responsibility beyond your bottom line to invest in your product and make a reasonable attempt at so that everybody can enjoy it. If they can't do that, they should find a new business to run. Also, the twins franchise is worth nearly $2 billion, the idea that an extra $20 to 30 million a year in payroll is intolerable to them is a joke. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Guardians picked up Alex Cobb. Interesting buy-low candidate. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

He is a righty, yes but is good against lefties for his career. Okert and Thielbar are the two most obvious spots to upgrade, IMHO. Doesn't necessarily have to be a lefty.

He's been OK against lefties for his career but he's not a reverse split guy. His stats this year are pretty awful against lefties: 5.40 ERA, 5.56 FIP, 16.1% K%, 12.5% BB%

For his career it's a 5.11 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 24.5% K%, 14.2% BB%

Not particularly inspiring. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Agreed--because it's a one year deal for $30M total.  I don't know what that has to do with the hypothetical of the Tigers signing him this offseason, or my continued assertion that no team in baseball would want him on a 5 year $150M deal.

An hour ago you had him not opting out. "Lotta money to walk away from."

Now it's team friendly.

Hard to have a discussion.

 

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Last year's deadline was disappointing but never got the sense that Cleveland would catch the Twins in the standings.

This year's deadline is way worse. Clinging to a WC spot with Boston, Kansas City, and Seattle making moves to improve their club, And the Twins do absolutely nothing.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Yankees traded Caleb Ferguson to the Astros (hated rival) for a PTBN and international signing pool $$$. Too steep of a price for the Twins.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Welp, Royals at it again - Paul DeJong.

 

[ChermesZ]

I feel like the kid who got nothing for Christmas.

[cmoss84]

Trust the best analyst on mlb network?

"Snell would cost $6 this year and is the key to winning a WS. Giants need to cash in NOW. Oh...and he's a fresh arm."

"Crochet is a generational talent. Use him this year how you can. But his future is bright."

"Detroit is DESPERATE for offense. Someone needs to go get Skubal."

If it's me, I give up Jenkins for Skubal or Crochet. I give up anyone else for Snell (even Lee). We need a freaking ace and don't get many of these opportunities...especially in a year we are in the playoff hunt.

[howeda7]

If you're not trying to win, sell. Trade Santana, Larnach, Kepler, even Buxton. 

[cmoss84]

Holliday might be on the move. He was scratched from game.

Skubal?

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, ChermesZ said:

I feel like the kid who got nothing for Christmas.

So, empathy for millions?

[Finlander]

5 hours ago, Markdumont25 said:

I know there's a few out there, but I don't know who can defend the Pohlads with a straight face. I suppose there could be an argument from the perspective of a draconian adherence to maximizing every dollar possible...but when you own a sports franchise you own a pillar of the community and you should have a responsibility beyond your bottom line to invest in your product and make a reasonable attempt at so that everybody can enjoy it. If they can't do that, they should find a new business to run. Also, the twins franchise is worth nearly $2 billion, the idea that an extra $20 to 30 million a year in payroll is intolerable to them is a joke. 

This! Especially when that community helped build a stadium for the owner.

[ChermesZ]

35 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

So, empathy for millions?

Only difference is the parents are billionaire scrooges.

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, ChermesZ said:

Only difference is the parents are billionaire scrooges.

Your parents are billionaires?

[ChermesZ]

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Your parents are billionaires?

Metaphor.

[Craig Arko]

Sometimes, swing big, miss big. Just ask Joey Gallo.

[dxpavelka]

15 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Just because YOU don't like it, doesn't mean it's not credible.

You really think Skubal goes for LESS than one of those guys? He probably goes for two of those kinds of prospects at least.

I'm sure the Twins won't do it, and I'm not sure that I'd be interested, but it's more than a credible take.

Sure.  Fine. MIGHT be credible.  Still a ******** idea.