How the 2025 Payroll Situation Will Shape Twins' Attempts to Add More Than a Rental at Trade Deadline

[bean5302]

55 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

...The fear is that ownership sees how the Guardians are doing and demand they operate more similarly to them and cut payroll even further to make up for the lost revenue and to hell with the fans.

Joe Pohlad talked about other organizations being competitive with lower payrolls, specifically mentioning the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays.

Joe Pohlad "I think in today's game you can see there are a number of different ways to win," Pohlad said when discussing cutting payroll during the offseason. "You see that both with the Tampa Bay Rays and with the Baltimore Orioles having lower payrolls, turning out very successful products on the field but also investing in other areas of the business. That is something that we are doing. But without a question the television situation is having an impact on our business but beyond that we're just trying to right-size our business. That goes into it as well."

Now, the issue with this is nobody else has been as successful as the Rays with their approach. The Rays have terrible, horrible, awful attendance and live purely off revenue sharing. That's their approach. The Twins ownership committed to long term, big contracts like Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Pablo Lopez. Two of those with NTC. You cannot reverse course suddenly after committing to that previous philosophy unless you can push those contracts off the books. Tampa Bay typically runs payrolls in that $70-100MM range, and they trade all their players away with 1-2 years of control left.

The Orioles ran payrolls up to $175MM by 2017 before a commitment to a 5 year tank for a rebuild strategy where they were the worst team in MLB. Apparently, the Pohlads missed this part.

The Diamondbacks ran payrolls as high as $171MM this year as well, plus $142MM back in 2017.

Up until 2022, the Kansas City Royals had even run a max payroll larger than the maximum of the Minnesota Twins, hitting $142MM in 2016. The Guardians pushed to $143MM in 2018 as well where the Twins' max at that point was $121MM (2017).

Almost all small/mid market teams will expand payrolls when they have a chance at contending. The Twins... well, the Pohlads have essentially said they won't anymore, but the Twins are NOT a small market team. They're a poorly managed (from an operations standpoint) mid market team. They're on par with Seattle.

 

[Chris Spencer]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Formed this opinion in April and just kept riding it, right? Here are the series results for the Twins when facing off against likely playoff teams. The Twins are 7-4 in series' against playoff caliber teams since the beginning of May.
KCR - W
MIL - T
CLE - L
LAD - L
BAL - L
May
BOS - W
SEA - W
NYY - L
CLE - L
KCR - W
June
HOU - W
NYY - L
ARI - W
SEA - W
July
HOU - W
MIL - L
PHI - TBD
 

According to your chart, they are actually 8-7 and 1. Boston, Seattle and Arizona are  not currently playoff teams which account for 4 our your wins. They are 3-7 and 1 minus those series. Against current division leaders they are 0 and 6. How does it sound now? 

[bean5302]

20 minutes ago, Chris Spencer said:

According to your chart, they are actually 8-7 and 1. Boston, Seattle and Arizona are  not currently playoff teams which account for 4 our your wins. They are 3-7 and 1 minus those series. Against current division leaders they are 0 and 6. How does it sound now? 

Having a hard time with phrases like "likely playoff teams" and the concept of month of "May" and then it's hard to count, huh?

[Chris Spencer]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Having a hard time with phrases like "likely playoff teams" and the concept of month of "May" and then it's hard to count, huh?

 

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Having a hard time with phrases like "likely playoff teams" and the concept of month of "May" and then it's hard to count, huh?

How many Wild card teams are you counting on calling likely playoff teams? NY or Baltimore are pretty much locks for 1. The Twins would need to be the second one in any trade scenario. Against current playoff teams since May they are 3 and 4. My main concern and why I stated go on a run is the record against Clev, NY and Baltimore who would be likely second round opponents.  

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

That is a question for TD - I suspect the answer is a resounding yes - they have asked over and over about budget. 

The question is has any reporter asked any specific questions about payroll and the deadline.  All I see is reckless speculation.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Now, the issue with this is nobody else has been as successful as the Rays with their approach. 

People keep saying this but it's not true.  I am not sure how you are measuring success but since the turn of the century Cleveland and Oakland have both been more successful by win percentage.  Tampa is actually significantly lower win a win percentage of .497 compared to .518 for Oakland and .516 for Cleveland.  

Oakland and Cleveland have both had ten 90 win seasons compared to 9 for Tampa. If you bump up to 92 wins Oakland has 8, Cleveland has 7, and Tampa has 6.

Let's not ignore that these three teams have been significantly better than all of the teams in the bottom 1/2 of revenue over the past 2+ decades.   If you look at how they built their most successful teams, you fill find all three organizations did a great job of trading for prospects.   See the table below that lists the percentage of WAR based on acquisition strategy.  TaP is traded for as a prospect where a player is considered a prospect that has never had a season where they produced 1.5 WAR of greater.  These three teams have produced far more WAR by trading for prospects than the draft. 

BTW ... Using KC as an example makes absolutely no sense.  They have the lowest win percentage of any team in the league and they have had the fewest 90 win seasons of any team in the league.  The got good after collecting high draft picks for a decade.  

8	Oakland Athletics	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	Oakland 2002	103	36.0%	12.0%	43.0%	0.0%	9.0%
100%	Oakland 2001	102	65.9%	14.3%	11.4%	8.3%	0.0%
101%	Oakland 2019	97	25.0%	0.0%	54.0%	10.0%	12.0%
100%	Oakland 2018	97	51.8%	0.0%	29.1%	19.0%	0.0%
100%	Oakland 2013	96	24.5%	5.0%	39.3%	10.0%	21.0%
100%	Oakland 2003	96	46.2%	21.1%	27.7%	5.0%	0.0%
100%	Oakland 2012	94	10.7%	0.0%	37.4%	5.3%	46.6%
100%	Oakland 2006	93	23.0%	0.0%	45.0%	9.0%	23.0%
	Oakland Total	97.25	35.4%	6.6%	35.9%	8.3%	14.0%
7	Cleveland Guardians	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	Cleveland 2017	102	22.9%	20.0%	43.9%	8.0%	5.0%
100%	Cleveland 2007	96	31.3%	36.5%	32.2%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2016	94	6.4%	17.3%	76.3%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2019	93	23.0%	18.0%	44.7%	14.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2005	93	7.5%	21.8%	51.4%	2.5%	16.8%
100%	Cleveland 2022	92	26.8%	24.0%	49.0%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Cleveland 2013	92	14.9%	0.0%	50.1%	10.2%	24.8%
	Guardians Total	94.57	19.0%	19.7%	49.6%	5.0%	6.7%
6	Tampa Bay Rays	WINS	Drafted	Intl	TaP	Trade	FA
100%	Tampa Bay 2021	100	25.0%	6.0%	45.8%	7.0%	16.0%
100%	Tampa Bay 2023	99	13.8%	9.8%	66.2%	0.0%	10.2%
100%	Tampa Bay 2008	97	45.7%	0.0%	33.2%	4.5%	16.6%
99%	Tampa Bay 2019	96	18.6%	0.0%	45.8%	9.0%	26.0%
100%	Tampa Bay 2010	96	64.7%	0.0%	22.1%	9.1%	4.1%
100%	Tampa Bay 2013	92	50.7%	0	28.6%	8.5%	12.2%
	Tampa Bay Total	96.67	36.4%	2.6%	40.3%	6.4%	14.2%
	Average All	96.16	30%	10%	42%	7%	12%

[Joe Schmitt]

Several people made this comment already, but I really appreciated the thoughtful, informative approach taken in this article.  Thank you.

 

[NotAboutWinning]

Excellent article Eric! 2025 and beyond will have far more impact on this trade deadline than 2024. 

Ownership seems to be changing horses mid-stream. After signing large contracts with Buxton, Correa & Lopez, Joe is now talking about modeling Tampa and the Orioles. The switch is going to be frustrating and painful.

[tony&rodney]

Worrying is just wishing for bad luck. 

The Twins have an adequate budget for players. Falvey had multiple options last offseason and signed the players he desired. He will have another chance this offseason. In the meantime the Twins are playing decent baseball. A little health and the guys are ready to make a move on Cleveland. First things first, Detroit has a nice team and the Twins need to swat the ball around Comerica Field. Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are up. Maybe we see Miranda and Lewis too.

[Mike Sixel]

Oakland has been awful since all the other teams added more statistical analysis to their teams. Cleveland and Tampa are it on the cheap side. Expecting any other team to be as good as them, while being as cheap as them, is unrealistic, apparently, or every team would do it. 

[Rosterman]

There is no reason they couldn't have hit $140+ this season. Really. Coming off a contention year. If truly go to the playoffs this year, us fans will raise "holy hell" if they don't bump upwards to $150+ come 2025. The team is pretty set for salary not only next season, but maybe even two more seasons out. Eliminate Correa and Buxton from the mix at some point and the Twins are flush with cash.

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Thank you for providing an article that is in the world of reality instead of the fantasy "Who will the Twins trade for?" volume we have been getting the last few weeks.

I second the motion on that! Very good article. 

[Major League Ready]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Oakland has been awful since all the other teams added more statistical analysis to their teams. Cleveland and Tampa are it on the cheap side. Expecting any other team to be as good as them, while being as cheap as them, is unrealistic, apparently, or every team would do it. 

Oakland had 97 wins in 2018 & 2019.  We all know that small market teams go through these cycles.  Let’s compare how others in the bottom half of revenue have done.

Twins - (1) 90-win season since 2019.  
Royals - Have not won 90 games since they won the WS in 2015 and that’s the only 90 win season they have had since the turn of the century.  
White Sox – (1) 90-win season since 2007.
Padres – (1) 90-win season since 2000.
Reds - Last 90 win season was 2013
Marlins – Last 90 win season was 2003.
Pirates – Last 90 win season was 2015 and they have had (2) 90-win seasons since 2000.
Tigers – Last 90-win season was 2014.
Rockies – (1) 90-win season in the past 15 years
Mariners -Been bad since 2014.
Dbacks have had (1) 90-win season in the past 12 years. 
Mariners won 90 in 2021 & 22.  That’s their only 90-win seasons since 2004.

Among modest revenue teams, the Twins and Brewers have been pretty good but over the past couple of decades Oakland has been better than every team in the bottom half of revenue except Cleveland / Tampa and better than half the teams in the top half of revenue.   

The sad truth depicted in the summary above is that it is very difficult to put together a playoff team with the current revenue disparity.  Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa have recognized the need to employ tactics that are contrary to what many fans believe drives success.  Should we ignore the fact that these teams have done far better than any other team with revenue limitations.  Think about that.  Let’s not do what has proven to be successful because not every team has followed their lead.

You also assume employing their tactics means spending at the same level.  The irony is their tactics produce more cheap talent which would allow a team like the twins to spend more on extensions and free agents.  They don’t have to operate below their spending capacity just because they utilize the tactics of teams with even lower revenue.

This is a list of 90-win seasons since 2000.  Oakland, Cleveland, and Tampa have done much better than any of the other teams outside the top half of revenue and as well as many with considerably more revenue.

1	Yankees	16
2	Dodgers	13
3	Red Sox	13
4	Cardinals	13
5	Braves	12
6	Oakland	10
7	Cleveland	10
8	Tampa	9
9	Astros	8
10	Angels	7
11	Giants	7
12	TWINS	6
13	Mariners	6
14	Rangers	6
15	Cubs	5
16	Brewers	5
17	Dbacks	5
18	Phillies	5
19	Nationals	5
20	Mets	4
21	Tigers	4
22	White Sox	4
23	Orioles	3
24	Blue Jays	3
25	Reds	3
26	Rockies	3
27	Pirates	2
28	Royals	1
29	Marlins	1
30	Padres	1