Giants 3, Twins 2: Twins No Match For Blake Snell, Faceplant Into All-Star Break

[Hans Birkeland]

The suddenly depleted Twins looked dead on arrival against a resurgent Blake Snell. Although their pitching kept the game close, the lineup was a few bats short. They made some noise in the ninth, briefly tying the game, but the Giants immediately walked it off on a triple from Mike Yastrzemski and a decisive error.

Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack : 5 IP 5 H 2 R 1 ER 1 BB 6 K (90 Pitches, 59 Strikes, 65.5%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Durán (-.368) Willi Castro (-.220), Brooks Lee (-.152)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

Fresh off a wild victory in game two of the series, the short-handed Twins entered Sunday's rubber match with a lot of discouragement for a team that had won six series in a row, with a chance for seven. José Miranda has turned into a lineup force but is on the IL now with back soreness. Byron Buxton is having an incredible resurgence, but is out for the second day in row with elbow soreness resulting from a crash into the center field wall at Oracle Park on Friday. Worst of all, news came out on Sunday that Carlos Correa now has plantar fasciitis in his other foot.

With Royce Lewis already on the IL, the Twins were left without their top four right-handed hitters going against reigning Cy Young winning lefty, Blake Snell. Snell got a late start to the year, as teams balked at his asking price. He has incredible stuff (last year's Cy was his second) featuring an electric change-up and curveball, but doesn't pitch deep into games and does not give in to hitters, preferring to walk them over throwing something hittable to get back into the count. His walk rate and overall efficiency suffer for this and teams were thus leery of investing 200M in him. The Giants ended up giving him a two year deal March 19th with an opt out after the first year and with no spring training, he has struggled, with a 7.85 ERA entering play and two IL stints.

The Twins stood no chance early on, as Snell was perfect through four innings. Twins hitters tried to sit on Snell's fastball, but the velocity on that pitch was in the 96-97 MPH range with good carry, and induced quite a few whiffs.

Opposing Snell was Chris Paddack making his second start since his IL stint for shoulder fatigue. His command looked decent early on but the velocity of his fastball sat in the 92 MPH range, dipping down to 89-90 MPH at various points. Hitters were able to be patient and lay off Paddack's change-up when thrown out of the zone.

The Twins defense was responsible for the first Giants run in the second inning. With one out, and on Michael Conforto on first, Matt Chapman rolled over on a pitch and grounded to shortstop Willi Castro. The feed and relay were crisp, but the usually solid Carlos Santana dropped the ball at first, allowing Chapman to reach. After a walk to Mike Yastrzemski, the ice cold Thairo Estrada jumped on a first pitch slider from Paddack and singled sharply to left, bringing home Chapman.

The Giants added another in the third. After Lamonte Wade Jr. crushed a one out double off an elevated change-up, Patrick Bailey jumped on the first pitch, another elevated change-up, and blooped a single to score Wade and double the lead. Outside of that, Paddack stayed out of the middle of the zone and was able to get enough weak contact to keep the Twins in the game.

Meanwhile Snell was on cruise control, keeping a low pitch count and not walking a single Twin. That part was surprising given Snell's track record, but he also did not allow an exit velocity over 100 MPH his entire outing, which is more on brand.

Also part of Snell's brand is a propensity to struggle the third time through a lineup (famously held against Snell in game six of the 2020 World Series), and Manuel Margot looped a single to left to lead off the seventh inning, ending Snell's chance at a perfecto. No rally ensured, however, as Willi Castro quickly grounded into a tailor-made double play.

The Twins went down quietly against reliever Tyler Rogers in the eighth, but the game changed in the ninth against flame-throwing closer Camilo Doval. New 40-man addition Diego Castillo led off with a walk, and pinch-hitter Trevor Larnach then roped a double down the right field line. Matt Wallner struck out, but Margot launched a ball into the left-center field gap to score both runs and tie the game.

 

The Good times would not last, however, as four pitches into Jhoan Duran's outing in the bottom of the ninth, Yastrzemski drove a ball into the gap that Margot dove on and missed, allowing Yastrzemski to reach third. Lee's throw to third was unnecessary and bad, ending up in the dugout and giving Yastrzemski another base, ending the game.

 

The Good:
-Paddack's command
-Jorge Alcala continues to excel in a fireman role, retiring Estrada with runners on second and third in the sixth.
-Margot hasn't been bad in quite a while, and woke everyone up with his double in the ninth.
 

The Bad:
-Paddack's velocity
-Steven Okert has had an up and down year, and today gave up a walk and a double to the two lefties he faced in the sixth.
-Brooks Lee was hitless in the series, had a bad at-bat with the go-ahead run on second in the ninth, and then made the error that lost the game in the bottom of the ninth. He's a rookie; it happens.

What’s Next: Willi Castro and (maybe) Carlos Correa represent the Twin at the All-Star game, held on Tuesday at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Twins will get an extra day off and resume the season on Saturday at home against Milwaukee, The starters will presumably be Pablo Lopez (8-7, 5.11 ERA) facing Freddy Peralta (6-5, 4.11 ERA).

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Sands	28	0	0	16	0	44
Jax	18	0	0	13	8	39
Durán	10	0	0	16	4	30
Staumont	0	0	22	0	5	27
Alcalá	11	0	0	7	2	20
Funderburk	0	0	17	0	0	17
Thielbar	0	0	14	0	12	26
Okert	9	0	0	0	18	27

 

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[thelanges5]

All of the injuries piling up is way worse than the loss. 

[Parfigliano]

Correa better put team first and skip the ASG festivities

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Correa better put team first and skip the ASG festivities

Plenty of SS on the AL roster. I'm hoping his only action is waving during the introductions.

[tony&rodney]

I am still a believer that Brooks Lee will be a good MLB player, but we saw some weaknesses in the last week. The Twins need to be able to use their entire roster of position athletes starting after the break. If someone is injured, call up a player from AAA or AA.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

One lost series in the last 7 isn't worth being upset about, particularly given their stretch before the break last year. Some time off will be great for the boys. 

[bean5302]

Carlos Correa should go out there and kill it during the All Star Game. The Minnesota Twins can use all the good publicity they can get, and Correa has worked his ass off to deserve the nod. Guys can get hurt partying after games, they can get hurt riding their bicycles, and they can get hurt in a car accident. These players already have "don't do" lists 1/2 a mile long restricting their activities outside of the sport. They're human, it'd be nice if they get to live like it.

[JD-TWINS]

25 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I am still a believer that Brooks Lee will be a good MLB player, but we saw some weaknesses in the last week. The Twins need to be able to use their entire roster of position athletes starting after the break. If someone is injured, call up a player from AAA or AA.

They do need to lean on their youth depth!

CC needs a break to minimize the foot damage……. should go to IL immediately after the All-star break. Miranda is out & back stuff can linger. Martin is out at least another week plus once they start up again. Lewis is out for another month…….even Farmer can’t fill in now.

I agree, bringing guys up is key……seems they have committed to Castillo for a bit - need Julien back after the break so Castro & Lee can play the left side.

Guys from AA is a bit of a stretch - nobody’s making that jump and it isn’t necessary in any fathomable situation.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Carlos Correa should go out there and kill it during the All Star Game. The Minnesota Twins can use all the good publicity they can get, and Correa has worked his ass off to deserve the nod. Guys can get hurt partying after games, they can get hurt riding their bicycles, and they can get hurt in a car accident. These players already have "don't do" lists 1/2 a mile long restricting their activities outside of the sport. They're human, it'd be nice if they get to live like it.

If he's good to go during an exhibition game that doesn't matter, why wasn't he playing today when it does?

[FlyingFinn]

There are times we miss a legitimate backup CF on defense. Today was one where we would rather have had Margot in LF.

[bean5302]

While I would have liked to see the Twins take the series out in SF to move the Giants further back, it wasn't a complete disaster, and they got a look at one of the top arms likely to be available at the trade deadline.

Blake Snell is still going to opt out if he pitches well down the stretch, and the Giants are going to be open to moving him if they're in the same spot as they are right now at under .500. Snell's earning $15MM this year in salary, with a signing bonus of $17MM split 50/50 between this year and next, which should make him very affordable. If Snell opts out, the Twins would be on the hook for as little as $5MM.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If he's good to go during an exhibition game that doesn't matter, why wasn't he playing today when it does?

Here I thought it was Miranda with the heel injury? If Correa is hurt, he'll be replaced for the ASG. I haven't had time to look at much with a huge home project turning things into a disaster.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Here I thought it was Miranda with the heel injury? If Correa is hurt, he'll be replaced for the ASG. I haven't had time to look at much with a huge home project turning things into a disaster.

Correa has plantar fasciitis in the other foot.

[Shaitan]

9 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If he's good to go during an exhibition game that doesn't matter, why wasn't he playing today when it does?

Because the ASG isn't today.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Shaitan said:

Because the ASG isn't today.

Open question to all the people on this board who have had plantar fasciitis: Does it go away in 2 days?

[JD-TWINS]

TWINS own an 18-6 Series Record since April 22.

In each of the 6 series they lost ……..they won 1 of the 3 games. 46-27, best record in A.L. since April 22.

Topa - Henriquez - Stewart can supplement the Pen for a stretch as needed until September. At that point Varland gets committed to Pen & adds a shot in the arm……IMO, Varland is Alcala level if throwing to 3-6 guys at a time.

Injuries need to be navigated out of the Break!

Wallner staying relevant is a big deal….. he’s starting to K a bunch in last couple games. Castro not falling off is a big deal - he could use a break! I think Jeffers - Santana - Kepler will be up & down but above average overall.

Buxton - Correa - Lewis - Lee - Miranda need to drive the offense. As I type, 4 of them are hurt. Gotta get healthy, generally!

Lopez has to throw well at least 3 of every 4 starts to establish himself at the top of the rotation and more importantly, give the Team a chance in 75% of his starts at a minimum. Gotta be able to lean on him!

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Buxton - Correa - Lewis - Lee - Miranda need to drive the offense.

If Brooks Lee hits okay and plays solid defense that's good enough. He shouldn't be expected to provide the offense yet.

[JD-TWINS]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Open question to all the people on this board who have had plantar fasciitis: Does it go away in 2 days?

Nope……

I think, just me, that he wants to go to Texas for his kids/Family. I think he’ll get dressed & hang with his kids & play catch with a couple buddies and won’t see the field during the game. Wears tennis shoes the whole week. He’ll go to the IL prior to next weekend’s start up…….gotta get some rest, per his own comments about his other foot hurt last year, “more rest sooner would have been better.”

He’s not a selfish guy - he’s not sitting last couple days to be good to play Tuesday……unless he thinks he’ll come back next Saturday w/o a problem. I think he hits the IL and Julien is back up to play 2B on Saturday.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

37 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If he's good to go during an exhibition game that doesn't matter, why wasn't he playing today when it does?

He's been diagnosed with plantar fasciitis in the other foot and has been replaced by Corey Seager for the All Star game

[JD-TWINS]

40 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Carlos Correa should go out there and kill it during the All Star Game. The Minnesota Twins can use all the good publicity they can get, and Correa has worked his ass off to deserve the nod. Guys can get hurt partying after games, they can get hurt riding their bicycles, and they can get hurt in a car accident. These players already have "don't do" lists 1/2 a mile long restricting their activities outside of the sport. They're human, it'd be nice if they get to live like it.

You cannot have a Plantar Faciaitis diagnosis Saturday morning and take 2 days off and then go balls out on Tuesday in an Exhibition Game - that’s nuts.

I think he should go - have fun with his kids - see some buddies around the League. That’s it though…..to the IL by Friday.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

He's been replaced by Corey Seager for the All Star game

Good news

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If Brooks Lee hits okay and plays solid defense that's good enough. He shouldn't be expected to provide the offense yet.

If he doesn’t suck. he’ll help drive the offense. If he hits like Julien did for 2 months it will be a problem for theTeam’s success. Not asking him to hit .280 or else……he’s part of the engine though……if he’s not providing offense yet he should be in St Paul instead of on a Team trying to win a Division.

[thelanges5]

C4 needs to get rid of his Nikes. New Balance?

[Old Twins Hat]

Wallner left his feet on the first batter of the game on Friday night and the Twins never recovered.

Margot, he hit the Twins into a tie but, for gosh sakes, don't leave your feet on the first batter of the inning.  Play the bounce, throw it to 2B, let Duran deal with it.

That said, Duran's curve balls inside on Lefty hitters have gotten spanked this year.  Why speed up their bats?  At least back door the curve once in awhile.

Twins won a boatload of series where they lose game one but win the last two games.  Can't even count them all.  Thought they had a chance to do it again but they threw it away, literally.

[mikelink45]

We might have had better options than Castillo.  We need to push the envelop.  Only the best should be in the lineup even if it means dropping someone from the 40 man.

[JD-TWINS]

44 minutes ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Wallner left his feet on the first batter of the game on Friday night and the Twins never recovered.

Margot, he hit the Twins into a tie but, for gosh sakes, don't leave your feet on the first batter of the inning.  Play the bounce, throw it to 2B, let Duran deal with it.

That said, Duran's curve balls inside on Lefty hitters have gotten spanked this year.  Why speed up their bats?  At least back door the curve once in awhile.

Twins won a boatload of series where they lose game one but win the last two games.  Can't even count them all.  Thought they had a chance to do it again but they threw it away, literally.

Agree on the Duran curves. He turns OK hitters into threats by not establishing his velocity and then pitching off that. He does have a habit of, or the Team has decided with him, to throw mostly 2 pitches per outing……at least many times that’s been the case. Assuming opponents pick up in this. If he throws a curve……he’s probably throwing another one in next 2-3 pitches. Best option is to just sit on that because they can’t typically deal with his fastball. I watched one game and all he threw were splits & curves……,I wonder how much comes back to pitch calling from bench and catcher……..,Duran obviously likes the swing & miss he has in his curve but maybe it needs to be located better or just set-up better?

[twins_89]

Facing Snell without the your top 4 hitters (who are all right handed) was not an ideal matchup. The results ended up pretty much as expected.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Here I thought it was Miranda with the heel injury? If Correa is hurt, he'll be replaced for the ASG. I haven't had time to look at much with a huge home project turning things into a disaster.

Miranda has a back issue.  Correa has plantir faceitis but not in same foot as last year.

[mnfireman]

Late to the party and haven't really read previous responses but it looked to me like most of the runs this weekend would have been prevented by a MLB centerfielder. Margot needs to go and Kiersey needs to be brought up, might have saved 2 games this weekend.

[Peter]

Hate the one run losses!!! Why come back only to lose this way? Rather have lost 2-0. Break comes at perfect time! Get rested and healthy!!!! Time to focus on winning central division!!!