Three Minor-League Pitchers Who Can Help The Twins in the Second Half

[Cody Pirkl]

As the Twins' lineup has rounded into form, the pitching staff has struggled. The trade deadline is one way to improve, but the Twins have some arms approaching in the minors. Who may be available to help?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins have no shortage of bats waiting for their chance in the minor leagues, but right now, they may need more pitching help. We could see three pitchers make a significant difference on the MLB roster this season, even before the All-Star break.

David Festa
Festa has been not only the most effective pitcher in St. Paul, but also one of the most dominant starters in Triple-A. 

After shoring up some previous problems with walk rate, the 6-foot-6 righthander has the raw stuff to be a weapon at the big-league level. He got his feet wet with the Saints last year, making three starts, and holds a 3.77 ERA in 14 starts this season. His ERA has been inflated by the long ball so far in 2024, but this is an outlier in the context of his career.

Festa’s dominant 35.1% strikeout rate makes one wonder whether he can be an immediate contributor to the MLB rotation, and he may be next up as Chris Paddack needs a breather. (The Twins placed Paddack on the injured list with arm fatigue Tuesday afternoon.) If the Twins hold off on promoting Festa, we could still see him down the stretch as a bullpen piece, where it’s hard to imagine him being anything less than dominant.

Louie Varland
After a brutal start to his season in the MLB rotation, Varland has spent much of his season in St. Paul. Varland hadn’t been particularly dominant against Triple-A pitching, and his ERA now sits at 7.33.

Varland has looked good in his two appearances with the Twins recently, though, and perhaps he’s still No. 1 for call-up options. It would be hard to blame anyone for doubting Varland’s future in the MLB rotation. His issues with loud contact have carried over to the Triple-A level, and he still lacks a traditional slider or sweeper to neutralize same-handed hitters.

Instead, Varland’s potential contributions may come in the bullpen. We saw him at his most effective in that role last season, and the Twins bullpen could use another arm given the struggles of Caleb Thielbar and Jhoan Durán. There is also still no timetable for Brock Stewart. We’ve seen what Varland can do in short stints, and if the Twins make that decision sooner rather than later, they may save themselves a prospect at the trade deadline.

Matt Canterino
While he's not actively pitching in the minor leagues at the moment, Canterino may have the best stuff among any arm in the Twins system. A shoulder injury knocked him on the IL to start the season, but Canterino is back to throwing bullpens, and we may be seeing him on a rehab assignment soon.

Canterino owns an ERA well under 2.00 across the minor leagues in his career, while striking out over a third of the hitters he’s faced. Health has always been the question, and as he enters his late 20s, it’s probably time to stop testing whether he can hold up to a starting pitcher’s workload.

With a high-90s fastball to pair with a devastating changeup/slider combination, it’s hard to envision Canterino struggling in a relief role. While a smaller workload may not keep him healthy, it’s probably time for the Twins to try something different. He’s already on the 40-man roster, and the clock is ticking. If Canterino can make a few appearances for St. Paul to show he’s healthy, he has the stuff to be fast-tracked to Target Field, where he should be able to dominate MLB hitters immediately.

Much of the Twins' starting pitching depth lies at Double-A Wichita. Could they be so aggressive as to promote someone like Zebby Matthews, who has dominated the entire season? Are there any other arms in the minor leagues that could be a big help in the short term? Let us know below!

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[FlyingFinn]

Good to hear a little information about Canterino. What you say is correct IF he doesn't get injured once again.

[old nurse]

Has Canterino even been playing catch yet? Pretty hard to help if he is not even thrown a ball this month. Festa and Varland is nothing new said. 

[Karbo]

Varland should be pushed to the pen ASAP. They need him.

[Brandon]

I’m not opposed to giving Dobnak a spot start here or there.  

[bean5302]

The fact Caleb Boushley isn't on this list feels like an oversight. Festa has not been the best starter for the Saints this year, it's been Boushley, honestly.

Boushley vs. Festa
Season
ERA 3.52 vs. 3.77
FIP 3.65 vs. 3.93
WHIP 1.03 vs. 1.29
HR/9 1.00 vs. 1.36
K% 22.1% vs. 35.1%
BB% 3.2% vs. 9.7%
K-BB% 18.9% vs. 25.4%

Last 5 Games
ERA 2.10 vs. 4.56
FIP 3.20 vs. 3.65
WHIP 0.90 vs. 1.05
HR/9 0.60 vs. 1.40
K% 21.4% vs. 34.3%
BB% 3.6% vs. 4.9%

Boushley is a journeyman MiLB soft-tosser in the mold of the Terry Ryan draftees and Rick Anderson students of old. The Kevin Slowey's of the world, if you will. Boushley's stuff rating from Statcast shows his slider and changeup are legitimate plus pitches while his curve is a tick below average. His 4 seam and sinker are well below average in terms of stuff. His location shows average overall, but let's be honest, he's going to need to be Kevin Slowey-ish to be successful at the MLB level. Pinpoint control required. In his favor, Boushly is also already on the 40 man.

Festa is flashy with the big K's, but he's been inconsistent and victimized by the long ball this year. I don't think it's a problem to start the 24 year old's clock at this point, and he probably does have a higher upside than Boushley.

It it was for a spot start, I'd take Boushley.

[DocBauer]

I object slightly to the pitching staff having "struggled". But we're probably talking semantics. I still trust Lopez to figure it out, Ryan has been great, Ober has been pretty consistent...though not quite as good as 2023 so far...and horrible against the Royals. SWR has not only "fixed" a spot in the rotation, but is getting better. Honestly, Paddack has been better than I expected, despite some ups and downs. I think the reset is needed with him coming back from TJ.

Stewart hurt and Topa out for the whole season so far hurts. Thielbar has been a mess. Duran hasn't been his old self. And yet, the pen has been about average. I don't want average. But injuries have certainly affected the pen to be sure.

It was my hope the Twins wouldn't need Festa until the 2nd half to just give him as much AAA time as possible to continue harnessing his stuff. I think he's pretty close to getting his 1st shot. 

And that brings us to Varland. I understand not giving up on him as a rotation arm just yet. He's got good stuff. The rotation depth isn't very good...not sure how many teams have great rotation depth. But I think he's moving to the pen come August. He's a classic "great arm, but not starter stuff" who could excel in the pen. I believe that's his future. 

I understood keeping Canterino in the rotation for as long as possible. But with TJ behind him, and great stuff, but with this latest shoulder injury, he reminds me a bit of Duran: electric stuff but an arm just not built for a starters workload. Once he's cleared to throw off a mound, and in games, it's time for him to be a 1 IP pen arm with great stuff. There's time to maybe have him ready for September, if not August, for such a role.

A wildcard? I still have no idea what's going on with Headrick. But if he's healthy at any time in the next month, there's time for him to add a LH arm to the pen for the late season.

No matter how great Matthews is doing right now, I just have a hard time believing he's going to hit AAA, or MLB, this season and make a difference. He's looking unbelievable. But there's a difference between being THIS GOOD, and ready for ML hitters.

[bean5302]

37 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

...No matter how great Matthews is doing right now, I just have a hard time believing he's going to hit AAA, or MLB, this season and make a difference. He's looking unbelievable. But there's a difference between being THIS GOOD, and ready for ML hitters.

Matthews has the lowest FIP of any pitcher (starter or reliever) in all of AA with 30+ innings pitched (Matthews has 40 IP)

Home runs? Not allowed.
Walks? Never hands them out.
Strikeouts? Lots.
ERA rank #10
FIP rank #1
K%-BB% rank #1 - T
K/BB rank #1
WHIP rank #1
HR/9 rank #10
SwStr rank #35
*Popup rate 29% vs. FB% 32%... only 3% (1) of his fly balls wasn't a pop up, and the only one was a home run. (you know... that one time)
BABIP .247
LOB 68.8%
*Nothing there out of the ordinary in terms of luck, but batted ball data from MiLB is kinda sketchy.

AAA is fine, but it should be sooner than later. If there were results which warranted a skip of AAA, it's what Matthews has done this year. There's literally nothing to work on in terms of results. The only thing a team might be able to test is whether or not AAA hitters, with a little more polish, can better lay off Matthew's pitches and draw walks.

[Rosterman]

If going to mention Canterino, might as well throw Headrick into the mix. Watch, thje Twins will run out Dobnak for a couple of starts!

[darin617]

Varland looks washed as a starter. Drop him to the pen and let him know he's got 20 pitches a night and give them hell.

[tony&rodney]

Canterino is mostly a myth unfortunately. He is currently (recently)  down with a shoulder hurting.

[mark sills]

Andrew Morris has also  looked great in double A. I would move Zebby up to triple a for a couple of starts. and then all the way up after he dominates there.

[LambchoP]

I think Zebby should get a late season AAA bump. Varland and Canterino need to be in the pen. If we ever get Topa, Stewart, Varland and Canterino in our bullpen it could be a good one. I think Bouschly or Festa should get a few spot starts while Paddack is down, but I'm guessing Varland will get one more chance.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The fact Caleb Boushley isn't on this list feels like an oversight. Festa has not been the best starter for the Saints this year, it's been Boushley, honestly.

Boushley vs. Festa
Season
ERA 3.52 vs. 3.77
FIP 3.65 vs. 3.93
WHIP 1.03 vs. 1.29
HR/9 1.00 vs. 1.36
K% 22.1% vs. 35.1%
BB% 3.2% vs. 9.7%
K-BB% 18.9% vs. 25.4%

Last 5 Games
ERA 2.10 vs. 4.56
FIP 3.20 vs. 3.65
WHIP 0.90 vs. 1.05
HR/9 0.60 vs. 1.40
K% 21.4% vs. 34.3%
BB% 3.6% vs. 4.9%

Boushley is a journeyman MiLB soft-tosser in the mold of the Terry Ryan draftees and Rick Anderson students of old. The Kevin Slowey's of the world, if you will. Boushley's stuff rating from Statcast shows his slider and changeup are legitimate plus pitches while his curve is a tick below average. His 4 seam and sinker are well below average in terms of stuff. His location shows average overall, but let's be honest, he's going to need to be Kevin Slowey-ish to be successful at the MLB level. Pinpoint control required. In his favor, Boushly is also already on the 40 man.

Festa is flashy with the big K's, but he's been inconsistent and victimized by the long ball this year. I don't think it's a problem to start the 24 year old's clock at this point, and he probably does have a higher upside than Boushley.

It it was for a spot start, I'd take Boushley.

I agree Boushley is probably the next man up to cover for Paddack until he can return. If Varland was used to help limit Paddack's innings, he would still be up in the rotation pitching. Varland has been great 1st time through the order. My philosophy is to keep him dominating up in the MLB as long relief & have him slowly work on what he needs to work on to get him to his goal of SP & have him spot start in 5 inning appearance. 

Because of his injury history, I'd have started Canterino in the BP. He has great stuff, we need him healthy & pitching in the MLB. I can see everybody else having a shot sometime or another. I like Dobby but he has to be more consistent for the Twins take a chance to put him back on the 40-man. I hope he can.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Canterino is mostly a myth unfortunately. He is currently (recently)  down with a shoulder hurting.

Completely agree - very unfortunate for Canterino - but bringing him up as having any kind of future at all, let alone August (??), it seems we are discussing a fictional character. I don’t think he’s put together a month w/o injury or at least that’s how it feels. Am certainly not expecting him to contribute at all this year.

[JD-TWINS]

Sounds like Topa and Stewart are both at least throwing a bit again. Getting one or both of these guys back by August 1 would be a real boost!

Who gets removed from 26-man (what pitcher) in the next few days to make room for the spot starter???? …..Could Thielbar get DFA’d? ……he certainly isn’t high on the usage list lately

[bean5302]

43 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I agree Boushley is probably the next man up to cover for Paddack until he can return. If Varland was used to help limit Paddack's innings, he would still be up in the rotation pitching. Varland has been great 1st time through the order. My philosophy is to keep him dominating up in the MLB as long relief & have him slowly work on what he needs to work on to get him to his goal of SP & have him spot start in 5 inning appearance. 

Because of his injury history, I'd have started Canterino in the BP. He has great stuff, we need him healthy & pitching in the MLB. I can see everybody else having a shot sometime or another. I like Dobby but he has to be more consistent for the Twins take a chance to put him back on the 40-man. I hope he can.

Varland couldn't have remained on the 26 man. Only a double-header technicality allowed Varland to pitch in his last game because his option was used less than 10 days prior his double-header appearance. The double-header allowed Varland to be called up for a day, but he was required to immediately go back to St. Paul because of the option waiting period rules.

Canterino hasn't even faced legit competition. The guy has 34 total innings at AA, the highest he's ever reached, and that was 2 years ago. He walked an unsustainable 5.8 per 9 innings at that level with a 3.15 FIP and 4.74 xFIP. Nobody knows how his stuff will play. Free Anthony Slama!!!

[bowserthedog]

I would like to see Zebby Matthews moved up to AAA to see if he can't become an option later on in these season. He's been lights out at high A and AA this year and moving him up a level could make him an option for a team that is short on starting pitching depth.

 

[Guest]

Good effort, but coincidentally MLB rumormill reporting Canterino has been shut down again for shoulder discomfort.  Stewart, however, is scheduled to start throwing bullpens soon.  I'm a Varland fan, but his current value is the bullpen.  Festa and Zebby are perhaps the best of the future, and it looks like Festa's getting a start in Arizona this week.

The trade deadline has also been a way for this FO to give away talent for low returns.  Coach 'em up and promote from within.