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The Twins have no shortage of bats waiting for their chance in the minor leagues, but right now, they may need more pitching help. We could see three pitchers make a significant difference on the MLB roster this season, even before the All-Star break.
David Festa
Festa has been not only the most effective pitcher in St. Paul, but also one of the most dominant starters in Triple-A.
After shoring up some previous problems with walk rate, the 6-foot-6 righthander has the raw stuff to be a weapon at the big-league level. He got his feet wet with the Saints last year, making three starts, and holds a 3.77 ERA in 14 starts this season. His ERA has been inflated by the long ball so far in 2024, but this is an outlier in the context of his career.
Festa’s dominant 35.1% strikeout rate makes one wonder whether he can be an immediate contributor to the MLB rotation, and he may be next up as Chris Paddack needs a breather. (The Twins placed Paddack on the injured list with arm fatigue Tuesday afternoon.) If the Twins hold off on promoting Festa, we could still see him down the stretch as a bullpen piece, where it’s hard to imagine him being anything less than dominant.
Louie Varland
After a brutal start to his season in the MLB rotation, Varland has spent much of his season in St. Paul. Varland hadn’t been particularly dominant against Triple-A pitching, and his ERA now sits at 7.33.
Varland has looked good in his two appearances with the Twins recently, though, and perhaps he’s still No. 1 for call-up options. It would be hard to blame anyone for doubting Varland’s future in the MLB rotation. His issues with loud contact have carried over to the Triple-A level, and he still lacks a traditional slider or sweeper to neutralize same-handed hitters.
Instead, Varland’s potential contributions may come in the bullpen. We saw him at his most effective in that role last season, and the Twins bullpen could use another arm given the struggles of Caleb Thielbar and Jhoan Durán. There is also still no timetable for Brock Stewart. We’ve seen what Varland can do in short stints, and if the Twins make that decision sooner rather than later, they may save themselves a prospect at the trade deadline.
Matt Canterino
While he's not actively pitching in the minor leagues at the moment, Canterino may have the best stuff among any arm in the Twins system. A shoulder injury knocked him on the IL to start the season, but Canterino is back to throwing bullpens, and we may be seeing him on a rehab assignment soon.
Canterino owns an ERA well under 2.00 across the minor leagues in his career, while striking out over a third of the hitters he’s faced. Health has always been the question, and as he enters his late 20s, it’s probably time to stop testing whether he can hold up to a starting pitcher’s workload.
With a high-90s fastball to pair with a devastating changeup/slider combination, it’s hard to envision Canterino struggling in a relief role. While a smaller workload may not keep him healthy, it’s probably time for the Twins to try something different. He’s already on the 40-man roster, and the clock is ticking. If Canterino can make a few appearances for St. Paul to show he’s healthy, he has the stuff to be fast-tracked to Target Field, where he should be able to dominate MLB hitters immediately.
Much of the Twins' starting pitching depth lies at Double-A Wichita. Could they be so aggressive as to promote someone like Zebby Matthews, who has dominated the entire season? Are there any other arms in the minor leagues that could be a big help in the short term? Let us know below!
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