Should the Twins Trade for Baltimore Orioles Top Prospect, Heston Kjerstad?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Many names will be linked to and speculated about in conjunction with the Twins as MLB's Trade Deadline slowly approaches. Could this right-handed, er, left-handed hitting top outfield prospect become an immediate contributor for the playoff-hopeful Twins?

In his most recent piece at The Athletic (or is it The New York Times? The site's new URL confuses me), writer and former front office executive Jim Bowden wrote a piece looking at "trade targets for each contender, plus deadline priorities for all 30 teams." In the middle of the article, one will find Bowden's assessment and top needs for the Minnesota Twins, where he suggests that "Right-handed-hitting corner outfielder" and "pitching depth" should be the organization's priority target as the trade deadline nears. His reasoning behind this assessment is that "The Twins are looking for a platoon type corner outfielder who hits right-handed. Like most teams, they also want to add some pitching depth, especially to their starting rotation, to protect from injuries." Thank you, Jim, for this excellent, in-depth analysis; I am delighted to pay $7.99 per month for this (I'm just being facetious; Gleeman, Hayes, and other great regional and national writers and podcasters make the subscription well worth it. Still, please follow and support local and independent writers for better and more thorough analysis).

Regardless, Bowden names Erick Fedde, Patrick Sandoval, Luis Severino, and Trevor Williams (presently on the 15-day IL with a right muscle flexor strain) as pitching depth options. In contrast, he lists Luis Robert Jr., Heston Kjerstad, Randy Arozarena, and Lane Thomas as right-handed hitting corner outfield options. Acquiring Robert Jr. would be an incredi-... Wait, Robert Jr., Kjerstad, Arozarena, and Thomas... This doesn't add up. Oh yes, that's right, Kjerstad isn't right-handed. There is a difference between being pedantic and recognizing when someone is neglectfully wrong; in this instance, Bowden is the latter.

Nevertheless, Bowden identifies left-handed-hitting corner outfielder and top prospect Kjerstad as a potential trade candidate for the Twins. Despite misidentifying the batting handedness of the Baltimore Orioles prospect, the 25-year-old corner outfielder and first baseman is an intriguing trade candidate. Kjerstad, selected second overall by the Orioles in the 2020 MLB Draft, spent the better part of the 2022 and 2023 MiLB seasons excelling through the organization's system before debuting on September 14, 2023. The University of Arkansas product played in 13 games with the powerhouse Orioles last season, slashing .233/.281/.467 with seven hits, one double, two home runs, two walks, ten strikeouts, and a 106 OPS+ over 30 plate appearances.

Kjerstad didn't make the team's playoff roster and started the 2024 season with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides before hewas recalled in late April. In seven games with Baltimore spanning from late April to early May, MLB.com's 21st-ranked prospect slashed .143/.294/.143 with two hits, zero doubles, zero home runs, two walks, six strikeouts, and an uninspiring 34 OPS+ over 17 plate appearances. The power-hitting lefty performed poorly in an exceptionally small sample size and was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk in favor of fellow left-handed hitting outfield prospect Kyle Stowers. Kjerstad has struggled to find his footing at the major league level. Yet, with Baltimore having a short leash and providing him only 47 plate appearances with the parent club over the past two seasons combined, it is nearly impossible to adequately assess how the former first-round pick will perform at the highest level.

Despite not receiving an extended look with the Orioles while other left-handed hitting outfielders Colton Cowser and the previously mentioned Stowers have, Kjerstad has performed exceptionally well at Triple-A over the past two seasons, slashing a combined .306/.384/.564 with 148 hits, 33 doubles, and 25 home runs with 55 walks and 129 strikeouts over 564 plate appearances. Mixing a high on-base percentage with a high slugging percentage, Kjerstad has become one of the pristine offensive players in MiLB.

Over the past two seasons at Triple-A, Kjerstad has generated a modest 23.3% strikeout rate over 564 plate appearances. However, his strikeout rate tends to jump when promoted. In his 33 plate appearances with the Orioles last season, he generated a 30.3% strikeout rate. In his 17 plate appearances with Baltimore this season, he generated an even more alarming 35.3% strikeout rate. This deficiency appears to be the driving force behind why the Orioles haven't provided the power-hitting lefty an extended opportunity in "The Show." Kjerstad has performed like a high-strikeout, high-power corner outfielder in his brief stints in MLB. Although this type of player prototype strikes a chord with Twins fans (hello, Joey Gallo and Matt Wallner), it is vital not to misidentify him as an all-or-nothing bat. He has never finished a minor league season with a strikeout rate above 27%, which suggests that his ballooned 32.8% strikeout rate over 47 MLB plate appearances is an inaccurate representation of his proper skillset.

Kjerstad deserves an extended look in MLB, yet with Cowser, Stowers, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Ryan Mountcastle, and other valuable MLB contributors, it appears that opportunity might not come any time soon in Baltimore. With Wallner and Alex Kirilloff struggling to produce at the major league level this season, Trevor Larnach being an unpredictable source of offensive contribution who could seemingly regress at any moment, and the organization lacking other minor league left-handed hitting outfielders who could step in and immediately produce offensively, the Twins could be incentivized to trade for Kjerstad.

Despite Baltimore's surplus of plus-prospects and the public perception of Kjerstad likely being lower than it should be after he struggled with the Orioles earlier this season, the cost to acquire the 2020 second-overall pick will undoubtedly be hefty. The Orioles are a well-rounded team presenting little areas of growth offensively and defensively. However, if there were one area of concern for Baltimore, it would be the back end of their bullpen. Despite ranking sixth in Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) and fourth in bullpen FIP as a collective, their top late-inning arms are Craig Kimbrel, Cionel Pérez, Jacob Webb, and a regressing yet still-productive Yennier Cano. The Orioles would benefit from acquiring a bonafide closer and potentially another a high-leverage set-up reliever, and although fire-throwing arms like Mason Miller, Edwin Díaz, and Ryan Helsley are enticing, acquiring their services would require taking on a hefty price tag or parting ways with multiple top prospects.

The Orioles have the resources to acquire relievers the likes of Miller, Díaz, and Helsley. However, the Twins could present the most intriguing trade candidate in Griffin Jax. Under control until the end of the 2027 MLB season, Jax becomes arbitration-eligible this offseason, meaning the price of retaining his services will gradually become more expensive over the next three seasons. The Twins are a stingy organization and they are particularly frugal regarding relievers. The Twins could trade Jax and another near-MLB-ready arm like Louie Varland (who Baltimore could transition into a full-time reliever), David Festa, or Zebby Matthews to acquire the low-cost, high-potential left-handed hitting corner outfielder in Kjerstad, who is under team control until the end of the 2029 MLB season. Acquiring Kjerstad could be a fruitful acquisition for the Twins in the short- and long-term as he could become an immediate contributor for the present-day playoff-hopeful 2024 team with the potential of becoming a mainstay in an idealized future outfield with veteran Byron Buxton and fellow highly-touted and developing left-handed hitting prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins.

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[Karbo]

No way would I gamble trading Jax for a prospect, especially one who hasn't looked ready for the majors yet. Beside that, its starting to look more and more like Wallner has figured something out, and they don't have to give anything to get him. 

[Schmoeman5]

"Larnach being an unpredictable source of offensive contribution who could seemingly regress at any moment"  Really? Based on what? Have you ever seen Kjerstad play? I have. I was shocked when he was picked 2nd overall. And the Orioles are great at picking good to great players. That doesn't mean they can't miss once in a while. But by all means, go get him. Make sure Larnach is part of the deal.

[LambchoP]

I say absolutely not. This guy doesn't look like he's any better than what we already have in Wallner, Larnach, Kiriloff, Keirsey....makes no sense to trade for a player that is so redundant. Especially trading our best reliever in Jax, that would absolutely cripple our bullpen. Twins need starting pitching more than anything.

[Doctor Gast]

Kjerstad is a big name, one you'll pay through the nose for & who's not worth it. If Kjerstad is the bait, a big SP or Mason Miller (if they want a closer) is the fish they're going after.

[Jocko87]

There's a reason Bowden is in the media.

Cancel your Athletic subscription, they will send you a $1.99 month offer.

Funny the Orioles need relief pitching. Can we give them Lopez back?

Also out on trading for an unproven asset to fill the RH power spot. They have enough of those guys and the roster is well set up to rent that player type every year.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

"Larnach being an unpredictable source of offensive contribution who could seemingly regress at any moment"  Really? Based on what? Have you ever seen Kjerstad play? I have. I was shocked when he was picked 2nd overall. And the Orioles are great at picking good to great players. That doesn't mean they can't miss once in a while. But by all means, go get him. Make sure Larnach is part of the deal.

Yeah, I do think it's pretty safe to say Larnach isn't a reliable every day corner outfielder right now. He's been trending down towards league average again, even if he's having different red flags than he used to. His BB rate is down like 25% vs. career average (which offsets some of the value in the enormous 40% K rate decline), but his exit velocities have tapered off recently, along with the barrel rate, and hard hit rates. Those Statcast metrics all look to be around league average over the past 20 games. Larnach's also slow as molasses in January this year so he's not going to be a great defender.

Personally, I think the Twins need an at least plausibly proven center fielder, not a corner outfielder. It's possible Emmanuel Rodriguez can fit the bill by the end of the year, though. He can't get back soon enough from that thumb sprain. Until then, even though it's rough watching him out there sometimes, I guess it's Willi Castro when Buxton needs a rest.

[Mike Sixel]

Nope. Aim higher in trades. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Sorry.  Too much for not enough.  Can’t imagine giving up THAT much pitching without a pitcher in return for anybody. 

[JD-TWINS]

Jax will NEVER be traded if he stays healthy as a Twin……may leave in free agency but not traded.

“Kjerstad may be the answer” & so might 125 other guys in AAA across MiLB & 6 of them are in the Twin’s system already. It’s pretty real …..other than hype, he’s not really shown that much upside ……if it were the case, The O’s would have him on their 26-man.

Margot seems to have cemented himself, with Martin showing up as well, for the Corner RH hitting guy!! Wallner/Kirilloff/Larnach/Castro have the LH hitting LF spot sewed up through ‘24!!!

[bjorks]

I wanted the Twins to at least "look into" Lane Thomas last year. As much as it pains me to say a .250 is above average-to-great, and (when healthy) a consistent 20/20 threat and most likely almost to the top of his prime is something I'd pay for and probably be cheaper than HK. 1 more year of control and probably not getting a huge raise in arbitration because he's been injured ($5.5 in '24). ANNNNND crushes lefthanded tossers. Don't understand why there isn't more interest, he seems like a quintessential Twin.

[Major League Ready]

I would stick with Martin for now and keep Jax.  Absolute no-brainer.  Then, next year, add Roderiguez who hits LHP just as well as RHP.   

[TopGunn#22]

There is no need for someone like Kjerstad when you already have E-Rod and Walker Jenkins in the pipeline.  The Twins need to focus on getting better and more consistent talent in their starting rotation.  That could be SWR if he continues to be effective, or David Festa, or someone like Jesus Luzardo.

But trading Jax is not "helpful" to the team, especially when Jax is pitching like he's been.  If he's going to get more expensive as he goes to arbitration it's because he's EARNING it.  That's an acceptable problem to have.

I'd be looking to move guys like Thielbar, Farmer and Margot for WHATEVER I can get, and be planning on promoting Brooks Lee sooner than later as well as the possible return of Julien and Wallner at some point.  Personally, I'd LOVE to see Kiersey finally get a chance to to see what he's got.

If Thielbar is traded or released in the very near future just promote Funderburk and get on with it.  Funderburk was always going to be a better pitcher THIS season and certainly for the future.  Why help solve Baltimore's bullpen issues (with this year's absence of Bautista) by gifting them with Jax and Varland just to get another LH hitting corner OF like Kjerstad?  I'd rather sell high on Cole Sands right now if a package including him and Larnach or Kirilloff could be part of a deal for Luzardo.