Minor League Report 6/16 Jaylen Nowlin Cruises; Matt Wallner and Nate Baez Crush

[Matt Braun]

Come on, you must read something while waiting for game two to start. 

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

TRANSACTIONS
RHP Louie Varland recalled as the 26th man 

Saints Sentinel
St. Paul 6, Louisville 3
Box Score
Caleb Boushley: 6 ⅔ IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
HR: Edouard Julien (2), Matt Wallner 2 (15, 16)
Multi-hit games: Matt Wallner (2-for-5, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI), Yunior Severino (3-for-5, HR, 2B, R, RBI), Alex Isola (2-for-5, R), Anthony Prato (2-for-5), Will Holland (2-for-4, RBI)

The Saints swept the Bats on Sunday.

Caleb Boushley continued to impress on the mound. The 30-year-old native of Hortonville, Wisconsin, worked 6 ⅔ innings, allowing three runs while punching out a trio in a start that came one out away from tying his season-high in frames. No matter; he’ll settle for his seventh win (against just one loss) and the seventh-best ERA amongst qualified International League hurlers.

Starting opposite Boushley was Brandon Leibrandt, son of Charlie. In a cruel nod to Father’s Day, Matt Wallner played the role of Kirby Puckett: the lefty walloped a pair of homers, the first a 481-foot rocket the cameraman could only catch after it bounced off the scoreboard. 

The second was a more casual shot off reliever Alex Young.

Edouard Julien and Yunior Severino also cracked long balls off of Leibrandt. 

Somewhere, Charlie likely shuttered and cursed Bobby Cox for putting him into that damn game in the first place. 

The laser show perfectly complemented St. Paul’s relief effort, as Scott Blewett, Ryan Jensen, and Ronny Henriquez combined to shut out the bats for the game’s final seven outs. Henriquez needed just seven pitches to elicit three outs.

Wallner is slashing .397/.453/.931 in June. Yes, that is his slugging percentage at the end. 

The Bats are led by Noelvi Marte, the 28th-best prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. He went 0-for-4. 

WIND SURGE WISDOM
Wichita 6, Midland 0
Box Score
Jaylen Nowlin: 8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
HR: Aaron Sabato (6)
Multi-hit games: Kyler Fedko (2-for-4, 2 RBI), Aaron Sabato (3-for-4, HR, 2B, R, 2 RBI)

Wichita shut out the RockHounds on Sunday.

For eight innings, it was the Jaylen Nowlin show. The lefty shed his usual brand of pitching and, for an afternoon, became a modern Tom Glavine, mowing down Midland’s hitters with shocking efficiency and a plethora of ground balls; he exited the game with just 84 pitches. A 5th-inning infield single that went nowhere served as the lone runner to reach base against him. Pure dominance from the 23-year-old.

Cody Laweryson pitched a perfect 9th to conclude the shutout.

The Wind Surge offense didn’t need to do much, but they decided to go above and beyond in support of their dealing starter. Kyler Fedko plated a run with a 1st inning single and coaxed home two more runs with a knock in his next at-bat. Then, Aaron Sabato entered: Minnesota’s 1st round pick in 2020 blasted an RBI double in the 5th before clearing the wall in right-center for his second extra-base hit of the day. He also walked. And he stole a base. For real.

The RockHounds are led by Oakland’s 11th-ranked prospect, Colby Thomas. He—like nearly every other hitter—went 0-3. 

KERNELS NUGGETS
Cedar Rapids 9, Lansing 8
Box Score
Ty Langenberg: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
HR: Nate Baez 2 (6, 7), Rubel Cespedes (8)
Multi-hit games: Ricardo Olivar (2-for-4, R, BB), Rubel Cespedes (2-for-5, HR, 2 R, RBI), Nate Baez (2-for-3, 2 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, BB)

The Kernels hung on in a thriller.

Urbandale, Iowa native Ty Langenberg earned the nod for his home-state team for the first time in his career. After decimating A-Ball in May and early June, Langenberg greeted the next level with a promising yet lukewarm start. He struck out seven but walked three. He allowed just a trio of hits but matched them in runs. Ultimately, it was ok showing for a player likely battling nerves and excitement on top of the hitters in the batter’s box. 

Speaking of hitting, the Kernels did a lot of it on Sunday: Cedar Rapids cracked 10 hits, took four walks, and scored nine runs, six of which came in the 3rd. Nearly everyone got in on the fun; centerfielder Kyle Hess was the only batter who didn’t reach base.

The most prolific hitter of the day was easily Nate Baez, who—despite now only claiming 12 professional home runs—scored his third career multi-homer game. Half of his home runs have come in just three games! The righty out of Arizona State is slugging .788 in June.

Entering the 8th with a 9-3 lead, Cedar Rapids nearly melted down and lost a guaranteed win when Sheldon Reed and Ricardo Velez (he is human, after all) allowed five runs in the final two frames. In fact, all three of Velez’s runs came with no one out; he then settled down to coax a pair of groundouts and a game-winning strikeout. 

The Lugnuts are the A+ affiliate of the Oakland Athletics, so while the Twins and A’s duked it out over the weekend, the Kernels became familiar with Henry Bolte, the franchise’s 10th-ranked prospect. The outfielder singled twice in five trips to the plate. 

MUSSEL MATTERS
Fort Myers 4, Lakeland 6 (Seven Innings)
Box Score
Jose Olivares: 4 ⅔ IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
HR: None
Multi-hit games: Payton Eeles (2-for-3, 2B, 3 R)

The Mighty Mussels lost the first game of their doubleheader on Sunday.

Starter Jose Olivares was cromulent—somewhere in the realm of acceptable but not quite good. His command oscillated early before escaping altogether in his final two frames. Those innings saw a mess of baserunners, stolen bases, and a few too many free passes for manager Brian Meyer. Olivares exited, and an error brought home a fourth (but unearned) run against his ledger.

Stolen bases were a problem all day: Lakeland stole seven bags against the Mighty Mussels (in just seven innings!), exposing a flaw in Fort Myers’ base running strategy. 

The bats were mostly silent, but they nearly scored enough to threaten the Flying Tigers’ lead thanks to a chaotic 5th. Yohander Martinez singled, Payton Eeles singled, advancing an extra base for both men off a Lakeland error, Walker Jenkins sent those runners to home and third, respectively, with a sacrifice fly, and Eeles scored on a balk. Now, that’s the kind of manufacturing that would make Henry Ford proud.

The shenanigans ended there, though, and two more Flying Tigers runs iced the game.

Eeles—apparently the second coming of Chuck Knoblauch (hopefully just on the field)—scored three runs and pushed his Fort Myers OPS to .990. He also stole a base. The 5’7” infielder plucked from Indy ball has been a terror since joining the organization in early May. 

The Flying Tigers are led by Max Clark, the 3rd overall pick from the 2023 MLB Draft. He lived up to the billing, cracking a homer while swiping his 17th base of the season. 

Game Two: Fort Myers 2, Lakeland 6 (Seven Innings)
Box Score
Tomas Cleto: 1 ⅓ IP, 1 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
HR: None
Multi-hit games: None

The Mighty Mussels came up empty in game two, as well.

While the Twins found success against a lefty named “Sears,” Fort Myers could elicit no such luck; Lakeland’s hurler, Andrew, held his opponents at bay, totaling five innings with just two earned runs against him. Oakland’s JP allowed two runs after just two batters.

Tomas Cleto could not match his mound foe. He was wild early and pitched himself out of the game after acquiring just four outs. Paulshawn Pasqualotto entered to establish some sort of order, but he too struggled to quell Lakeland’s bats; he allowed a pair of runs thanks to a 4th inning homer.

Fort Myers’ offensive display was brief. If you blinked, you could have missed it. They flashed discipline by taking five walks, but their bats only found three hits, none of them of the run-scoring variety. 

Clark flashed his prospect status once again, singling thrice while stealing two more bases. What a terror. 

TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY
Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Jaylen Nowlin
Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Nate Baez

PROSPECT SUMMARY
Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed:
#1 - Walker Jenkins (Fort Myers) - 1-3, 2B, 2 RBI, K
#2 - Brooks Lee (St. Paul) - 1-5 R
#9 - Luke Keaschall (Wichita) - 0-4, 3 K
#18 - Yunior Severino (St. Paul) - 3-5, HR, 2B, R, RBI, K
#20 - Ricardo Olivar (Cedar Rapids) - 2-for-4, R, BB

MONDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS
DSL Rockies @ DSL Twins (9:00 AM) - TBD
DSL Rockies @ DSL Twins (Game Two) - TBD
FCL Orioles @ FCL Twins (11:00 AM) - TBD

View full article

[bean5302]

LOL, Wallner with 2 more home runs. Calcs out to .351/.425/.857 OPS 1.282 with a .506 ISO in his past 20 games 87 PA. Or for those people wanting the larger sample size, over his last 40 games and 176 PA, that's .278/.364/.623 OPS .986.

With Margot, Santana and Farmer remembering how to hit over the past couple weeks, it keeps the pressure on.

[FlyingFinn]

Wallner suddenly is on one his hot streaks. Sometimes these things last for a while, too.

Nowlin - I think that's 3 out of 4 decent games and this one was just dominant. Who says the Twins don't let their minor league pitchers throw some innings as he went 8! The lack of walks with this just makes his ceiling so high. Consistency is what he needs now.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Wallner suddenly is on one his hot streaks. Sometimes these things last for a while, too.

Nowlin - I think that's 3 out of 4 decent games and this one was just dominant. Who says the Twins don't let their minor league pitchers throw some innings as he went 8! The lack of walks with this just makes his ceiling so high. Consistency is what he needs now.

It's not sudden. He's been raking for months now. He owns an OPS close to 1.000 Since May 1.

[Dman]

With all the Walks I had Nowlin as a reliever.  I guess the Zebby Matthews affect is real.  Someone in the system always throwing a Zebby type game with no walks and just a few hits.  If he can keep this up he is a starter.  Before I am a believer I need to see him keep the walks down a few more games though.

I was about to write Baez and his bat off and then he goes out and starts hitting home runs.  Maybe this is just a hot streak and while his power looks real have to wait and see of he can keep making contact. Still nice to see him having some success with the bat.

Sabato 3 for 4 with another home run. Three games in a row with a Home run.  He looks dialed in at the plate right now.  Maybe he has figured some things out?  Hard to say, but it sure is fun to say nice things about the guy.

Wallner another game another home run.  He is starting to make me look foolish for doubting.  Still want to see him do this against another team before I am on board though.

A good night for wins except Fort Myers.  Things are looking up for the affiliates.

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's not sudden. He's been raking for months now. He owns an OPS close to 1.000 Since May 1.

That's not really an accurate portrayal.  From May 1 to May 24 his line was ( .192   .290   .397   .688)  His first 32 after being sent down his line was ( .187   .275   .358   .632).  He has put up video game numbers the last 20 games.  (.346   .424   .827   1.251)  Those numbers are so good they make it look like he has been better over a longer a period if you don't inspect the numbers beyond using a May 1 starting date.   It's just not accurate at all to say he has been hot for longer than 3 weeks.

I don't know what to think.  I really want to believe but I don't see anything different in his swing.  One the other hand, he is absolutely abusing AAA pitching right now.  Let's hope he has found something that translates to the ML level.  We need him long-term.

[HrbieFan]

I see Sabato is up to a .274 BA, though his power has dropped. Anyone that has seen him play recently offer any words of hope with him? Or is he sacrificing his power to be more selective? 

[Karbo]

Wallner is raking. Margot and Martin are both better defenders, but they must be looking over their shoulders a bit.

[tony&rodney]

Nowlin has a ton of moving parts and on any pitch where he aligns everything he is pretty unhittable. No, that isn't true for everyone. Nowlin can get great late movement. His future rests in whether he is able to predictable harness his control. That is a common theme for pitchers with great stuff. I try to catch as many innings of Nowlin's games as possible but missed his recent gem.

[Dman]

59 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

I see Sabato is up to a .274 BA, though his power has dropped. Anyone that has seen him play recently offer any words of hope with him? Or is he sacrificing his power to be more selective? 

His Slugging% is currently slightly higher than his 2021-2023 numbers at .445. That is a good slugging percentage, but not a great one.  For a bat only guy it really should be in the 500 range or higher at these levels. He has work to do and making more contact (fewer K's) would go a long way toward helping him.  His K rate is currently down from last year as well so he is working on it.  Still like I said for a bat only player he needs to be elite and right now is just OK.

Other than when he was in high A for 22 games this is the highest his OPS has been at any level (AA .837).  Still a lot of season left for things to go either direction, but given his recent week of success have to believe his confidence is up.  I hope this is the start of a major resurgence, but it could just be a little hot streak and then back to reality.

[gbg]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's not sudden. He's been raking for months now. He owns an OPS close to 1.000 Since May 1.

That's because of his June tear. His numbers for the month of May were .198/.306/.436, most of that coming between May 2 and 9.

I hope his current form continues!

[SaberNerd]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

I see Sabato is up to a .274 BA, though his power has dropped. Anyone that has seen him play recently offer any words of hope with him? Or is he sacrificing his power to be more selective? 

I haven't seen him, but he is a 25yr 1B/DH repeating AA. The odds on those players aren't good.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

That's not really an accurate portrayal.  From May 1 to May 24 his line was ( .192   .290   .397   .688)  His first 32 after being sent down his line was ( .187   .275   .358   .632).  He has put up video game numbers the last 20 games.  (.346   .424   .827   1.251)  Those numbers are so good they make it look like he has been better over a longer a period if you don't inspect the numbers beyond using a May 1 starting date.   It's just not accurate at all to say he has been hot for longer than 3 weeks.

I don't know what to think.  I really want to believe but I don't see anything different in his swing.  One the other hand, he is absolutely abusing AAA pitching right now.  Let's hope he has found something that translates to the ML level.  We need him long-term.

You're breaking SSS into SDSSS, looking for the worst patches you can find, and then concluding he's been hot and cold. No player has a steady production line.

Wallner's first 10 games in May (May 1-11) he had an OPS of 1.000. Then over his next 13 games you arbitrarily chose to end just before Wallner got hot, his OPS was only .356, but that's basically the definition of cherry picking.

[bean5302]

48 minutes ago, gbg said:

That's because of his June tear. His numbers for the month of May were .198/.306/.436, most of that coming between May 2 and 9.

I hope his current form continues!

What about his OPS of 1.000 for his first 10 games in May? Terrible! Awful! Couldn't hit anything! If you cherry pick hard enough, you can bend numbers to you will.

For example. You know that hack Carlos Correa? I've been hearing that he's been hot recently, but between 5/27 and 6/8, his slash was only .186/.196/.346 OPS .545 wRC+ 46. Heated up has he? Good hitter is he? Poppycock!!!!

[LambchoP]

Wallner is on a tear and seems to have hit his way to an earned promotion. Call him up and send down Margot if he's got options. Otherwise it'd have to be Martin, which I'd hate to see. Martins bat has looked a lot better over the last month or so.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

You're breaking SSS into SDSSS, looking for the worst patches you can find, and then concluding he's been hot and cold. No player has a steady production line.

Wallner's first 10 games in May (May 1-11) he had an OPS of 1.000. Then over his next 13 games you arbitrarily chose to end just before Wallner got hot, his OPS was only .356, but that's basically the definition of cherry picking.

 

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

What about his OPS of 1.000 for his first 10 games in May? Terrible! Awful! Couldn't hit anything! If you cherry pick hard enough, you can bend numbers to you will.

For example. You know that hack Carlos Correa? I've been hearing that he's been hot recently, but between 5/27 and 6/8, his slash was only .186/.196/.346 OPS .545 wRC+ 46. Heated up has he? Good hitter is he? Poppycock!!!!

Probably shouldn't get on people for "cherry picking" when you chose to ignore his initial stretch in St Paul and cherry picked May 1 as your starting point for "months" of raking. He's actually been in AAA for almost exactly 2 months so it's pretty clearly cherry picking to ignore the bad stretch to start before calling out others for cherry picking. He's been very good in AAA overall (.250/.332/.550/.882 in 52 games). But he has also very clearly been either very cold or very hot. I don't know why that's bad to point out. 

It took a 2 week stretch (13 games) of a .513 OPS in the majors to get him demoted. The initial stretch you chose to cherry pick out was a 10 game stretch of .520 OPS. Then he went on that 10 game stretch of a 1.000 OPS to start May. Before absolutely cratering to a .356 OPS over the next 13 games (remember, 13 games were enough to get him demoted in the first place). And now he's working on his 3rd week of a 1.300+ OPS and we all hope it continues for the rest of the year. But it seems awfully fair to point out that almost 4 of his 8 weeks in AAA have been as bad or worse than the 2 weeks it took to get him demoted in the first place.

[Doctor Gast]

Eels should be promoted to high A, but the Mussels would be lost w/o him.

Kiriloff has yet played a AAA game, Canterino 60 days IL stint has long been up. What's up on these 2?

We all know that Wallner & Julien can crank out HRs in AAA. But have they shown that they have mastered not striking out at AAA enough that'll translate on the MLB level? That's what we have to look at.

[Danchat]

An 8 inning start from Nowlin? Glad to see some starters are actually allowed to have long starts.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

You're breaking SSS into SDSSS, looking for the worst patches you can find, and then concluding he's been hot and cold. No player has a steady production line.

Wallner's first 10 games in May (May 1-11) he had an OPS of 1.000. Then over his next 13 games you arbitrarily chose to end just before Wallner got hot, his OPS was only .356, but that's basically the definition of cherry picking.

Actually, I am looking at the game log to see if his production has been up and down or did he clearly take off at a given point.  That would tell us just how long he has sustained success.  He had an OPS of .686 for 5/1-5/25.  His incredible numbers blast off after 5/25 very clearly pulling up the overall numbers to something near 1.000 if you use a 5/1 start date.   That in no way suggests he has been playing well since 5/1.  It suggests he has been hitting at an incredible pace that make his numbers since 5/1 look good if you don't bother to look at the game log.  

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

 

Probably shouldn't get on people for "cherry picking" when you chose to ignore his initial stretch in St Paul and cherry picked May 1 as your starting point for "months" of raking. He's actually been in AAA for almost exactly 2 months so it's pretty clearly cherry picking to ignore the bad stretch to start before calling out others for cherry picking. He's been very good in AAA overall (.250/.332/.550/.882 in 52 games). But he has also very clearly been either very cold or very hot. I don't know why that's bad to point out. 

It took a 2 week stretch (13 games) of a .513 OPS in the majors to get him demoted. The initial stretch you chose to cherry pick out was a 10 game stretch of .520 OPS. Then he went on that 10 game stretch of a 1.000 OPS to start May. Before absolutely cratering to a .356 OPS over the next 13 games (remember, 13 games were enough to get him demoted in the first place). And now he's working on his 3rd week of a 1.300+ OPS and we all hope it continues for the rest of the year. But it seems awfully fair to point out that almost 4 of his 8 weeks in AAA have been as bad or worse than the 2 weeks it took to get him demoted in the first place.

Have I ever suggested Wallner wasn't struggling to begin the season? You have to eventually pick a point. I've given you 10 game, 20 game, 40 game, calendar months (42 games). They all show a hitter who has been highly productive. May 1, Wallner went 0/5 with 3Ks... I didn't choose that sample size as a "cherry pick" by definition.

10 Games = 1.355 wRC+ 237
20 Games = 1.282 wRC+ 215
20 Games (5/16-6/6) = .936, wRC+ 134
30 Games = 1.019, wRC+ 152
30 Games (5/4-6/6) = .847, wRC+ 111
40 Games = .986 wRC+ 144
42 Games (May 1) = .973 wRC+ 140

Your apparent 3 game, 7 game, 8 game, 4 game, 12 game, 1 game, 5 game methodology is not more demonstrative of a players trend, and having a handful of games here or there where a player doesn't hit is totally normal for every single player there is in baseball which is why larger sample sizes are preferable overall, but even valuable to show trends.

[tony&rodney]

Wallner has hit some absolute shots in AAA. Numbers aside, he still looks to have a hole in his swing if you watch him hit. To be fair, all players will have weaknesses. We need to give credit to Wallner for working hard but AAA pitchers have been pretty good about giving Big Matt pitches in his whomping zone. Of course, as a Twins fan, I would like to see Wallner hitting those towering home runs in MLB games. Still, the approach doesn't look so daunting to a pitcher with excellent control. I think both Ryan and Ober would have their way with Matt. I really do wish Wallner could find success in the majors but since last October have felt the Twins should have used him in a trade and I still think he might be a piece that another team finds appealing for their team.

[chpettit19]

49 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Have I ever suggested Wallner wasn't struggling to begin the season? You have to eventually pick a point. I've given you 10 game, 20 game, 40 game, calendar months (42 games). They all show a hitter who has been highly productive. May 1, Wallner went 0/5 with 3Ks... I didn't choose that sample size as a "cherry pick" by definition.

10 Games = 1.355 wRC+ 237
20 Games = 1.282 wRC+ 215
20 Games (5/16-6/6) = .936, wRC+ 134
30 Games = 1.019, wRC+ 152
30 Games (5/4-6/6) = .847, wRC+ 111
40 Games = .986 wRC+ 144
42 Games (May 1) = .973 wRC+ 140

Your apparent 3 game, 7 game, 8 game, 4 game, 12 game, 1 game, 5 game methodology is not more demonstrative of a players trend, and having a handful of games here or there where a player doesn't hit is totally normal for every single player there is in baseball which is why larger sample sizes are preferable overall, but even valuable to show trends.

You skipped his first 10 games in AAA. Why? That's 20% of the sample size. You're doing every bit the cherry picking that others are. Yes, you do have to pick a point, but why wouldn't that point be when he got to AAA? Why don't you want those 10 games included if 10 games is too small of a sample size to matter anyways?

Here, I'll do the same thing, but from the time he got to AAA until his 42nd game:
First 10 Games: .520 OPS
20 Games: .763 OPS
30 Games: .641 OPS
40 Games: .737 OPS
42 Games: .766 OPS

So 42 games into his 52 game stint he had a .766 OPS. 52 games in he has an .882 OPS. That sure makes it look like he's been a below average hitter for 80% of his time in AAA while the last 20% were out of this world. If he'd really been "raking for months" why was his OPS 1.5 months into his 2 month stint below .800?

There was no "apparent 3 game, 7 game, 8 game, 4 game, 12 game, 1 game, 5 game methodology." There were 10 and 13 game chunks. So just under 2 full series to just over 2 full series. I'm sorry you have to exaggerate my "methodology" to fit your narrative.

[bean5302]

47 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You skipped his first 10 games in AAA. Why? That's 20% of the sample size. You're doing every bit the cherry picking that others are. Yes, you do have to pick a point, but why wouldn't that point be when he got to AAA? Why don't you want those 10 games included if 10 games is too small of a sample size to matter anyways?

Here, I'll do the same thing, but from the time he got to AAA until his 42nd game:
First 10 Games: .520 OPS
20 Games: .763 OPS
30 Games: .641 OPS
40 Games: .737 OPS
42 Games: .766 OPS

So 42 games into his 52 game stint he had a .766 OPS. 52 games in he has an .882 OPS. That sure makes it look like he's been a below average hitter for 80% of his time in AAA while the last 20% were out of this world. If he'd really been "raking for months" why was his OPS 1.5 months into his 2 month stint below .800?

There was no "apparent 3 game, 7 game, 8 game, 4 game, 12 game, 1 game, 5 game methodology." There were 10 and 13 game chunks. So just under 2 full series to just over 2 full series. I'm sorry you have to exaggerate my "methodology" to fit your narrative.

I didn't use the start of his AAA campaign because Wallner was ice cold and struggling to find his swing which was the reason he was demoted. The debate over Wallner isn't whether or not he was struggling to start the season. Nobody is making the argument that Wallner didn't have issues to start the season. That's never been the debate. Everybody understood he needed to go down to AAA to fix whatever the issue was, and since Wallner continued to initially struggle, it pretty much proved there was definitely an issue.

Now if I can do you the pleasure of steering you back to the actual debate/subject/topic at hand, it's whether or not Matt Wallner has heated up and found his swing. So it's appropriate to use data from current, backwards to come to the conclusion, rather than using data from when we all know he didn't have it and move forward. Intentionally placing bad data into your analysis (from when Wallner was known to be having issues) to further your argument is disingenuous and intentionally manipulative. This would be the same as saying a product has failed because it was bad at one time historically, even though now it's doing great.

If you don't understand what Cherry Picking is, let me provide you with the definition.
https://www.institutedata.com/us/blog/cherry-picking-in-data-analytics/#:~:text=Cherry-picking in data analytics refers to the selective and,contradict or challenge that conclusion.

Quote

Cherry-picking in data analytics refers to the selective and biased extraction of data or information for analysis. This practice involves choosing specific data points or datasets that support a desired conclusion while disregarding or ignoring other relevant data that may contradict or challenge that conclusion.

For MLB purposes, round datasets such as 10-20-30-40 games, beginning or middle days of calendar months, full month date spans, half seasons beginning or ending with the All Star Break, and full seasons, are commonly used. Commonly used data ranges are not typically associated with cherry picking. They're common. Baseball players do not have the ability to pick and choose their performances to match common data sets so using them (like I did) guts the debate over cherry picking.

I chose commonly used data sets from the current time going back in time for a reason. 10, 20, 20 (11-30), 20 (21-40), 30, 30 (11-40), 40. Wallner has been significantly above average to on fire over every single one of those round data sets. Using the round datasets was specifically to avoid cherry picking.

He's found his swing. If you want to try and debate the very moment he found it... the very day or very second before whatever swing that was, knock yourself out. It might be an interesting tidbit, but it's not relevant to the conversation.

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I didn't use the start of his AAA campaign because Wallner was ice cold and struggling to find his swing which was the reason he was demoted. The debate over Wallner isn't whether or not he was struggling to start the season. Nobody is making the argument that Wallner didn't have issues to start the season. That's never been the debate. Everybody understood he needed to go down to AAA to fix whatever the issue was, and since Wallner continued to initially struggle, it pretty much proved there was definitely an issue.

Now if I can do you the pleasure of steering you back to the actual debate/subject/topic at hand, it's whether or not Matt Wallner has heated up and found his swing. So it's appropriate to use data from current, backwards to come to the conclusion, rather than using data from when we all know he didn't have it and move forward. Intentionally placing bad data into your analysis (from when Wallner was known to be having issues) to further your argument is disingenuous and intentionally manipulative. This would be the same as saying a product has failed because it was bad at one time historically, even though now it's doing great.

If you don't understand what Cherry Picking is, let me provide you with the definition.
https://www.institutedata.com/us/blog/cherry-picking-in-data-analytics/#:~:text=Cherry-picking in data analytics refers to the selective and,contradict or challenge that conclusion.

For MLB purposes, round datasets such as 10-20-30-40 games, beginning or middle days of calendar months, full month date spans, half seasons beginning or ending with the All Star Break, and full seasons, are commonly used. Commonly used data ranges are not typically associated with cherry picking. They're common. Baseball players do not have the ability to pick and choose their performances to match common data sets so using them (like I did) guts the debate over cherry picking.

I chose commonly used data sets from the current time going back in time for a reason. 10, 20, 20 (11-30), 20 (21-40), 30, 30 (11-40), 40. Wallner has been significantly above average to on fire over every single one of those round data sets. Using the round datasets was specifically to avoid cherry picking.

He's found his swing. If you want to try and debate the very moment he found it... the very day or very second before whatever swing that was, knock yourself out. It might be an interesting tidbit, but it's not relevant to the conversation.

Then your argument is he found his swing in 10 games? Since that's all you're cutting out. 10 games is all it took? And he's been "raking" ever since? Absurd.

He has seemed to find his swing in the last 2 weeks. Not "months" ago. Your claim of him "raking for months" is absurd. His month of May was a .741 OPS. There's one of your "commonly used data sets." Your claim of him "raking for months" is wrong. He hasn't been. We're 17 days beyond that "commonly used data set" of "a calendar month" where his OPS was .741. He hasn't raked for months, he's raked for 2+ weeks.

I don't know why you can't say that since it's the clear and obvious situation. His OPS at the end of May was .679. He flat out hasn't been "raking for months." He is very clearly comfortable against the Louisville Bats pitching staff as they were the team he lit up for a 4 game stretch in early May before completely cratering again, and they're the team he just got done lighting up for the last week.

You're attempting to take advantage of an incredibly small sample size to claim he's raked for "months" when it simply isn't true. Again, his OPS for May was .741. Suggesting he was raking during the month of May is ignoring all fact and reason. You simply can't be "raking for months" when your last calendar month was a .741 OPS. Sorry.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

He is very clearly comfortable against the Louisville Bats pitching staff

His teammates are also quite comfortable hitting off the Bats. AAA stats get very skewed by playing the same team 6 days in a row. It makes the stats a lot less random than if they only played 3 game series. You're seeing the relievers multiple times.

Rochester is one of the worst pitching staffs in AAA. Syracuse is one of the best. Louisville, Toledo and Iowa are right in the middle. Omaha has the best ERA in AAA and I believe Wallner struggled in those games in May. It's great that he's hitting now but the major league players are performing well so he's going to have to stay healthy and wait for an opportunity.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

His teammates are also quite comfortable hitting off the Bats. AAA stats get very skewed by playing the same team 6 days in a row. It makes the stats a lot less random than if they only played 3 game series. You're seeing the relievers multiple times.

Rochester is one of the worst pitching staffs in AAA. Syracuse is one of the best. Louisville, Toledo and Iowa are right in the middle. Omaha has the best ERA in AAA and I believe Wallner struggled in those games in May. It's great that he's hitting now but the major league players are performing well so he's going to have to stay healthy and wait for an opportunity.

Yeah, I just saw the Severino snippet on the site about him going ballistic last week as well. The Bats' arms helped boost a lot of numbers for the Saints' bats.

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I just saw the Severino snippet on the site about him going ballistic last week as well. The Bats' arms helped boost a lot of numbers for the Saints' bats.

Severino's surge started a few days after Wallner.  Since 5/29, Severino's numbers are even crazier than Wallner's.  For the last 15 games (67 PAs) Severino's line is  (.412  .552  .784  1.337).  It sure would be great if these guys have found something.  Wouldn't it be great if we are still talking about production anywhere near this 2-3 weeks from now!

[tony&rodney]

When people are discussing Wallner, his successes and struggles, I'm wondering whether they have watched at least 25 of his at bats or merely looking at statistics?

[gbg]

On 6/17/2024 at 9:24 AM, bean5302 said:

What about his OPS of 1.000 for his first 10 games in May? Terrible! Awful! Couldn't hit anything! If you cherry pick hard enough, you can bend numbers to you will.

For example. You know that hack Carlos Correa? I've been hearing that he's been hot recently, but between 5/27 and 6/8, his slash was only .186/.196/.346 OPS .545 wRC+ 46. Heated up has he? Good hitter is he? Poppycock!!!!

Deep breath, please. I'm not bending anything to my will, and I alluded to his spark during that week. However, when you make a statement like "he's been raking for a couple months now", you can't just exclude 50% of that period and then turn around and accuse others of "cherry picking".

[gbg]

20 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Then your argument is he found his swing in 10 games? Since that's all you're cutting out. 10 games is all it took? And he's been "raking" ever since? Absurd.

He has seemed to find his swing in the last 2 weeks. Not "months" ago. Your claim of him "raking for months" is absurd. His month of May was a .741 OPS. There's one of your "commonly used data sets." Your claim of him "raking for months" is wrong. He hasn't been. We're 17 days beyond that "commonly used data set" of "a calendar month" where his OPS was .741. He hasn't raked for months, he's raked for 2+ weeks.

I don't know why you can't say that since it's the clear and obvious situation. His OPS at the end of May was .679. He flat out hasn't been "raking for months." He is very clearly comfortable against the Louisville Bats pitching staff as they were the team he lit up for a 4 game stretch in early May before completely cratering again, and they're the team he just got done lighting up for the last week.

You're attempting to take advantage of an incredibly small sample size to claim he's raked for "months" when it simply isn't true. Again, his OPS for May was .741. Suggesting he was raking during the month of May is ignoring all fact and reason. You simply can't be "raking for months" when your last calendar month was a .741 OPS. Sorry.

I clearly need to read your posts before making my own, because twice now you've gotten there sooner than me with more detail! :-)