Let's Make a Deal: Should the Twins Target Any of the Pirates' Booty?

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins may have just dropped their series against the Pirates, but can they pick up any of Pittsburgh’s roster treasures come July’s trade deadline?

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins may be catching the Pittsburgh Pirates at a tricky time, both in terms of playing them on the field, and with considering their roster as a target for pillaging. The Bucs have been sellers at many of the recent trade deadlines, and they haven’t made the postseason since 2015. 

But this year feels like a possible turning point for their historic franchise. While they still find themselves at the cellar of the NL East, their current trajectory is certainly pointed in the right direction. They have emerging stars in their lineup in the form of shortstop Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes that pair well with veteran regulars such as Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds, and their young rotation has become the envy of baseball, led by two standout rookies in Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. 

It’s hard to imagine the Twins and Pirates matching up for a swap of any of the aforementioned players, but their roster still presents some options that are at least intriguing to say the least. 

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The Hitters
With Cruz, Hayes and Reynolds almost certainly staying put as building blocks going forward, and McCutchen likely staying in Pittsburgh for a swan song to his illustrious career, there aren’t many clean fits that could be clear upgrades for the Twins’ lineup, or at least in positions of need. The Twins’ wish list in a trade acquisition for a hitter would likely center around a right-handed outfielder with a good bat that presents a clear upgrade over a suddenly-hot Manuel Margot, a left-handed hitter who can play first and/or second base and a catcher that can either hit left-handed or is just a clear upgrade over Christian Vazquez. 

Let’s start in the outfield. The Pirates have a few intriguing guys that could possibly be of interest to the Twins. 
Connor Joe has been a speculative target for the Twins since the 2022-2023 offseason, and is currently having one of his better all-around campaigns. The 31-year-old right-handed slugger sports a .263/.338/.440 clip (120 wRC+) and can play either corner outfield spot, plus first base in a pinch. The most appealing aspect of Joe’s game would be his solid numbers against southpaw pitching (.856 OPS, 138 wRC+) and the three-plus years of club control via arbitration. 

If we would’ve looked at the Pirates’ roster a few weeks ago, old friend Michael A. Taylor may have been a reasonable name to target for a low-wattage move, especially if the Twins were confident they could get his bat back to its lefty-mashing ways from last season. But now that Margot has improved drastically, his slightly above-average .708 OPS against southpaws is considerably higher than Taylor’s .583 OPS this season. Might be best to leave that one on the table. 

As far as a target at the catcher position is concerned, Joey Bart caught my eye before he went on the injured list with thumb discomfort a few weeks ago. Upon joining the Pirates after being designated for assignment by the San Francisco Giants, the former top prospect lit it up at the plate to the tune of a .267/.362/.517 (149 wRC+) clip. He’s most likely going to be blocked by former number one overall pick Henry Davis going forward, though Davis himself is off to a slow start this year. 

Had Bart remained healthy, and if the Pirates were willing to dangle him in a trade, the Twins would’ve had to give up a decent but not elite return package to secure his services. After all, the catching position is pretty bleak league-wide aside from a few stars at the top, and Bart is under club control through the 2027 season. He could theoretically still be a target for the Twins, but it’s not as clean of a fit as it probably needs to be to get across the finish line. 

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The Pitchers
Skenes or Jones are as untouchable as any pitchers can be in today’s game, but there are a few other arms that could make sense for the Twins. I would’ve loved to put Mitch Keller (3.16 ERA across 13 starts this year) on this list, but he recently signed a five-year contract extension to stay in Pittsburgh, very similar to that of Pablo Lopez. It’s likely that the Twins would have more interest in acquiring a player in this mold before they sign an extension. 
The most-realistic trade targets on the Pirates’ roster are all housed in their bullpen. Some of their lower-leverage arms such as Justin Bruihl and Carmen Mlodzinski could make some sense if the Twins are willing to work some of their mechanical tweak magic. Bruihl (4.09 ERA across parts of four MLB seasons) is a 26-year-old lefty with an interesting sweeper, despite low velocity on his sinker. He’s under club control for four more years after the 2024 season, so he may need to be part of a bigger package to make a trade work. 

Mlodzinski is a former first-round pick of the Pirates from 2020, and while he doesn’t appear to be tracking toward his ceiling that was set when they drafted him, he could still have some upside in a relief role. Since becoming a full-time reliever in 2023, the 25-year-old has a 3.17 ERA across 48 ⅓ innings pitched, and is still a work in progress when it comes to refining his repertoire. He’s still working with a five-pitch mix, but three of his offerings are marginal at best. The Twins could look for him to focus on his fastball and gyro-slider, which has been his best breaking ball offering so far. They’ve done it before with former starters as they transition to a bullpen role, and they’ll surely do it again with someone like Mlodzinski at some point. 

Pittsburgh’s closer David Bednar is another name I’d keep an eye on. He would cost a pretty penny, especially given the fact that he’s a native son of Pittsburgh. His season started with a handful of blown saves (though he has seemed to straighten out in the last month), making the trade possibility even trickier, as they would be selling him at a relatively low-point of his career. But what if the Twins offered the Pirates another Yinzer as part of the return package? Could Alex Kirilloff (plus an actual centerpiece or two) entice Pittsburgh’s front office into considering a trade for their native son? It’s hard to say, but there’s plenty to like when looking at Bednar as another late-game option to pair with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. 

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What do you think? Are there any realistic targets on the Pirate’s roster that the Twins should consider targeting in a trade? Let us know what you think in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet. 

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[Brandon]

The Pirates are a half game out of the playoff race.  They may still be willing to do a low wattage move for a prospect.  I have a feeling they want to try to compete for that last wild card spot if they can.  More likely is what can they get from us that doesn't cost anything.  Taylor is the only player I could see them moving to the Twins if the Twins were willing to deal for him.  Maybe they could swap bullpen arms if there was someone each team would like from the others pen.  I just don't see The Twins being very active this trade deadline.  

[Doctor Gast]

PIT is still in the hunt for the wildcard. If they are selling, Twins shouldn't want anything they'll come to  offer.

[bean5302]

These articles are not a terrible idea, but they're way too early. I'm assuming there's a push to try and get an article for all 30 MLB teams, but many teams, like the Pirates may not be sellers. 

[old nurse]

Being the Pirates are in the position of fighting for a spot in the playoffs it would seem ludicrous to think that they would be trading future assets or useful expiring contracts unless it was an overpay 

[Doctor Wu]

Bednar is a pretty good relief pitcher, but like most of those veteran arms, he scares me a bit, and for sure I wouldn't want to give up any to prospects for his services. If the Twins traded for him, it could be like the second coming of Matt Capps. 

[Doctor Wu]

35 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Being the Pirates are in the position of fighting for a spot in the playoffs it would seem ludicrous to think that they would be trading future assets or useful expiring contracts unless it was an overpay 

Yes, the Pirates have a good young core, both with the hitters and pitchers. I don't think they are going to be sellers this season. 

[Vanimal46]

I’m rooting for Pittsburgh to go for it this season. Given the state of pitching injuries in baseball, there is no guarantee they will have all 3 of Skenes, Jones, and Keller healthy and clicking in 2025+. 

A better question for this series is what prospect could we get from them for one of Kepler, Larnach, or Wallner? The Pirates need bats and they could make some noise in the playoffs with their pitching. 

[LambchoP]

Not sure it will be the Pirates,but I think we definitely need a leverage lefty to replace Theilbar. I like the guy, but he's cooked at this point. Also, since the twins are set on Varland staying a starter, I think we need another good bullpen arm that can replace Jackson/Castillo. Especially since we don't know what's up with Stewart....

[Chris Spencer]

The focus should be on the Twins as Sellers, not buyers. The only thing they do well is beat terrible teams. What is their record against teams with a winning record? 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m rooting for Pittsburgh to go for it this season. Given the state of pitching injuries in baseball, there is no guarantee they will have all 3 of Skenes, Jones, and Keller healthy and clicking in 2025+. 

A better question for this series is what prospect could we get from them for one of Kepler, Larnach, or Wallner? The Pirates need bats and they could make some noise in the playoffs with their pitching. 

This. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m rooting for Pittsburgh to go for it this season. Given the state of pitching injuries in baseball, there is no guarantee they will have all 3 of Skenes, Jones, and Keller healthy and clicking in 2025+. 

A better question for this series is what prospect could we get from them for one of Kepler, Larnach, or Wallner? The Pirates need bats and they could make some noise in the playoffs with their pitching. 

I agree... If I'm Pittsburgh... I'm trying to add a bat. An Outfielder should be where they should focus. 

Pittsburgh is a lot like the Twins last season. The Twins were producing some of the best pitching they have ever produced last year but we had offensive questions.

There were a few posters on Twinsdailly who argued at the trade deadline last year that it wasn't time to add and I just didn't understand that thinking since the pitching was as strong as it has ever been. 

This year... the Pittsburg staff has three starters looking real good but the Twins staff last year was better in total... quite a bit better than the Pirates are this year. 

I'd love for the Twins to do some shopping off the Pirates roster but the Pirates shouldn't be selling in my opinion and neither should the Twins... At least not as of June 13, 2024. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't see any available Pittsburgh bats that make this team better. The guys like Connor Joe and Michael Taylor are the same 'Meh or worse' kind of players the Twins already have a dozen of. Get good, middle of the order bats or promote the prospects.

I'd like some of their starters, but I doubt they'd be available. 

[Vanimal46]

39 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'd love for the Twins to do some shopping off the Pirates roster but the Pirates shouldn't be selling in my opinion and neither should the Twins... At least not as of June 13, 2024.

A lot can change in the next 45 days, but IMO this is looking like a seller’s market. The league is so top heavy with 5 elite teams, 15-20 average at best teams, and 5 horrendous teams. 

Do the Twins have enough pitching to win a 7 game series against CLE, BAL, or NYY? Unless Lopez and Paddack make significant strides I’d argue no. Is our lineup deep enough to produce runs against October pitching? I’d also argue no as of today. That’s why I’m in alignment with @Chris Spencerto be sellers. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

A lot can change in the next 45 days, but IMO this is looking like a seller’s market. The league is so top heavy with 5 elite teams, 15-20 average at best teams, and 5 horrendous teams. 

Do the Twins have enough pitching to win a 7 game series against CLE, BAL, or NYY? Unless Lopez and Paddack make significant strides I’d argue no. Is our lineup deep enough to produce runs against October pitching? I’d also argue no as of today. That’s why I’m in alignment with @Chris Spencerto be sellers. 

I'd likely stand pat....I'd prefer not to sell if they are are playoff team. But no way I'm dealing any young players for rentals, not with this roster. Not getting a legit SP and one great hitter (instead of multiple mediocre players) was a huge blunder....

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

A lot can change in the next 45 days, but IMO this is looking like a seller’s market. The league is so top heavy with 5 elite teams, 15-20 average at best teams, and 5 horrendous teams. 

Do the Twins have enough pitching to win a 7 game series against CLE, BAL, or NYY? Unless Lopez and Paddack make significant strides I’d argue no. Is our lineup deep enough to produce runs against October pitching? I’d also argue no as of today. That’s why I’m in alignment with @Chris Spencerto be sellers. 

You are right that a lot can change in the next 45 days. 

However... I think it's fair to point out: 

Brandon Pfaadt had a .5.79 ERA during the regular season last year for the D-Backs. Then turned in a 3.27 in the playoffs.

He's back up to 4.60 this year. Nobody was thinking in June that the D-Backs were set for the playoffs because of Brandon Pfaadt. 

It was nice to have Gallen and Kelly in the starting rotation they were both great in 2023 but there was nothing beyond that including Pfaadt. However it is fair to point out that Gallen wasn't a strong performer in the playoffs.  

Arizona had 5 hitters who were doing decently during the regular season. Carroll, Marte, Walker, Gurriel and let's throw Moreno behind the plate in that group. CF, SS and 3B were question marks. Pham was acquired cheaply and he had a nice post season.   

The Rangers got by with Montgomery, Eovaldi and Heaney in the playoffs. Scherzer was not a playoff factor. Gray and Dunning worked out of the pen. Degrom was hurt. The acquisition of Montgomery was huge for the Rangers.     

Although... The Rangers simply bashed their way to a title. Seager, Garcia, Jung and Carter were rock stars and couldn't be stopped for 17 games. 

Anyway... I agree that a lot can change in the next 45 days. I fully admit that I loudly wanted Max Kepler cut in June and he went nuclear after the all star break to help us into the playoffs... so yeah a lot can change.

However... a lot can change between September 29 and October 1st. Because Kepler struck out 10 times in 23 AB's in the playoffs with 5 hits... no home runs and a .554 OPS. 

I don't trust myself to predict who will step up in the playoffs and I don't trust front offices to make those predictions either. 

Load up the best you can to make the playoffs and get hot at the right time.  

[KBJ1]

None of those do anything to improve the Twins. We need an Ace reliever or a top RH LF bat. As far as 1B, we are going to have to settle for a Miranda/ Santana platoon now that Kiriloff has floundered.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

A lot can change in the next 45 days, but IMO this is looking like a seller’s market. The league is so top heavy with 5 elite teams, 15-20 average at best teams, and 5 horrendous teams. 

Do the Twins have enough pitching to win a 7 game series against CLE, BAL, or NYY? Unless Lopez and Paddack make significant strides I’d argue no. Is our lineup deep enough to produce runs against October pitching? I’d also argue no as of today. That’s why I’m in alignment with @Chris Spencerto be sellers. 

I think the deadline moving forward will almost always be a seller's market. With the playoff expansion there are just so many teams that can talk themselves into having a chance. Or FOs that are on the hot seat and feel they need to make a push to save their jobs. Sellers can work up far better bidding wars now than in the past because there's so many more teams fighting for playoff spots. Will be fascinating to see how teams evolve their deadline strategies.

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the deadline moving forward will almost always be a seller's market. With the playoff expansion there are just so many teams that can talk themselves into having a chance. Or FOs that are on the hot seat and feel they need to make a push to save their jobs. Sellers can work up far better bidding wars now than in the past because there's so many more teams fighting for playoff spots. Will be fascinating to see how teams evolve their deadline strategies.

I don't know. If it's easier to make the playoffs, why go spend prospects and money? Just make the playoffs and get a few million more in ticket sales. 

Alf: Do you think that the “seller’s market” thing is overblown? Or will there really be a significant difference in the cost of acquiring established players?

12:50

 Dan Szymborski: Tends to be overblown, but ti’s real in a limited way I think

[cmoss84]

Kirilloff for Bart?

[chpettit19]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

I don't know. If it's easier to make the playoffs, why go spend prospects and money? Just make the playoffs and get a few million more in ticket sales. 

You still have to make the playoffs. Some jobs depend on it. AJ Preller has to be feeling some heat. The Cards don't finish below .500 (had done it once in the 21st century before last year) and I'm sure Mozeliak is feeling some heat. The Astros are trying to hang onto a bit of a dynasty. The Rangers just won the World Series after making a big deadline deal and going crazy on spending. The Blue Jays are at decision time on the core of their roster and the FO and manager all have to be feeling it after years of "going for it." Seattle is desperate for some playoff success.

Lots of different reasons. Just squeaking into the playoffs isn't the goal for Philly, LAD, Atlanta, San Diego, or the Yankees. That's 10 teams off the top of my head. Cleveland saw what happened when they did absolutely nothing so they are likely not going to just sit pat with a real division race this year. Detroit invested during the offseason and may not be able to fight the temptation to give a little extra effort at the deadline even if they're a year ahead of schedule. KC has to be hungry to get back to the postseason.

There's only 5 teams in baseball more than 6 games out of a wild card spot. 3 pretty clear sellers in the AL (LAA, Oak, CWS) and 2 obvious sellers in the NL (Col- even though they're impossible to predict and probably won't sell at all, Mia). That leaves 25 teams who can all find reasons to talk themselves into buying. It being easier to make the playoffs just means there's more teams trying to make the playoffs. "Just make the playoffs" is a pretty big oversimplification of things. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

You still have to make the playoffs. Some jobs depend on it. AJ Preller has to be feeling some heat. The Cards don't finish below .500 (had done it once in the 21st century before last year) and I'm sure Mozeliak is feeling some heat. The Astros are trying to hang onto a bit of a dynasty. The Rangers just won the World Series after making a big deadline deal and going crazy on spending. The Blue Jays are at decision time on the core of their roster and the FO and manager all have to be feeling it after years of "going for it." Seattle is desperate for some playoff success.

Lots of different reasons. Just squeaking into the playoffs isn't the goal for Philly, LAD, Atlanta, San Diego, or the Yankees. That's 10 teams off the top of my head. Cleveland saw what happened when they did absolutely nothing so they are likely not going to just sit pat with a real division race this year. Detroit invested during the offseason and may not be able to fight the temptation to give a little extra effort at the deadline even if they're a year ahead of schedule. KC has to be hungry to get back to the postseason.

There's only 5 teams in baseball more than 6 games out of a wild card spot. 3 pretty clear sellers in the AL (LAA, Oak, CWS) and 2 obvious sellers in the NL (Col- even though they're impossible to predict and probably won't sell at all, Mia). That leaves 25 teams who can all find reasons to talk themselves into buying. It being easier to make the playoffs just means there's more teams trying to make the playoffs. "Just make the playoffs" is a pretty big oversimplification of things. 

I'm not convinced owners (some of them) want to spend more than they are.....or some of them would have allowed it before the year. I guess we'll find out in a month or so...

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not convinced owners (some of them) want to spend more than they are.....or some of them would have allowed it before the year. I guess we'll find out in a month or so...

That could very well be true. But there's always ways around the money aspect. The Mets were happy to make it so the Astros and Rangers didn't have to add salary to get Verlander and Scherzer last year. 

And I'm not suggesting there's going to be some huge jump in guys traded. I'm not predicting that a guy who would've cost 1 top 100 guy plus filler is now going to cost 3 top 100 guys, or even 2. But if they used to cost a top 5 system guy plus a top 10 guy and a top 15 guy, they may now cost a top 5 guy and 2 top 10 guys instead. Generally speaking, though, the more possible buyers you have the better your odds of finding the 1 guy who will "overpay" for what you have. If teams are holding out for 3 top 100 guys on someone who should cost 2 top 10-15 system guys they're going to be disappointed. But the odds of talking a team into giving up a guy from tier 2 when they only wanted to trade from tier 3 go up with the more buyers and fewer sellers there are.

Supply and demand. It's not about huge jumps in cost, but there's likely some incremental cost increases.

[bean5302]

56 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Kirilloff for Bart?

I'd like Kirilloff for Skenes more...

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'd like Kirilloff for Skenes more...

hahahahaha. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the deadline moving forward will almost always be a seller's market. With the playoff expansion there are just so many teams that can talk themselves into having a chance. Or FOs that are on the hot seat and feel they need to make a push to save their jobs. Sellers can work up far better bidding wars now than in the past because there's so many more teams fighting for playoff spots. Will be fascinating to see how teams evolve their deadline strategies.

I agree. With the 1st playoff round set up as it is in a 3 game format any mediocre 85 ish team has a coin flip chance to win it. We may end up seeing very few players available and less blockbuster deals because .500 teams are convincing themselves why not us?

[Trov]

I see Pirates standing pat, barring a huge drop off.  They are fighting for a playoff spot and their fans already believe they sell anyone with value too early.  They may move some pen guys if they drop too far back but they will not be dealing really any controllable guys. 

[cmoss84]

23 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'd like Kirilloff for Skenes more...

Um...okay?

You don't think this would be a fair deal?

[cmoss84]

23 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

hahahahaha. 

You don't think Bart for Kirilloff is an even deal?