The Twins Made A Decision About Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien, But It May Not Be The Right Choice

[USAFChief]

11 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

They have won .559% of their games and that projects to 91 Wins, is that more eloquent?

 

If you're going to lecture us on math, you should take care to get the math correct.

If the Twins had won .559% of their games this season they'd be roughly 3-56. 

That projects to ~9 wins this season. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

55 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

If you're going to lecture us on math, you should take care to get the math correct.

If the Twins had won .559% of their games this season they'd be roughly 3-56. 

That projects to ~9 wins this season. 

 

 

At 33-26 they are 30 games above that .559 pace. 

  

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

If you're going to lecture us on math, you should take care to get the math correct.

If the Twins had won .559% of their games this season they'd be roughly 3-56. 

That projects to ~9 wins this season. 

 

 

.00559 x 59 = about 0.33 wins to date, or roughly 1 win for the year. 🤣

[wabene]

You guys think this is hard try carpentry with the archaic imperial system. Fractions, aye my head hurts. 

I did buy my co-worker and myself metric tape measures, but I guess so far we've been too set in our ways to try a using them, lol.

[saviking]

16 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Julien has had way more OPPORTUNITIES to play well, as he should. 169 AB’s v. 92 AB’s for Farmer……..he had a .380 OBP in ‘23 as a Rookie - big shift so far this year and he needs a refresh.

Options, when faced with a Roster Crunch are always part of the deal.

Farmer hit .256 last year in 120 games & he was out a month after getting hit in the face……his career Average coming into ‘23 was .255.

To me, Margot is in the OF playing time mix with Larnach, Castro, Kirilloff, & Wallner……he’s becoming more effective, slowly bringing his average up. With a .255 career Average as well, he’s hit .254, .274, & .264 over the past 3 seasons.

Wallner had a really good 10 weeks ….. Julien had a really good 4 months…..hasn’t hit a HR since April 25th ……,something needs to get fixed …..,maybe a coach or a Sports Psychologist or maybe film study - I don’t know, but he’s better than his performance over the past 6 weeks.

The fact that Margot is 45 points under his career Average & many want him DFA’d and Julien is hitting lower says a lot about Julien’s performance.

Could be ... 

[Riverbrian]

13 minutes ago, wabene said:

You guys think this is hard try carpentry with the archaic imperial system. Fractions, aye my head hurts. 

I did buy my co-worker and myself metric tape measures, but I guess so far we've been too set in our ways to try a using them, lol.

This is me

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

League average as a hitter for the year, and above average defense this year.......he's a median 2B right now. 

He is league average for the year but 50% below average in May.  Shouldn't they give significant consideration to how players are performing currently as well as for the year when making this type of decision.  The stats for May are below.   Margot has actually been slightly better than Julien.  If Larnach can play the OF now, there is no reason for Margot to play against RHP and if they limit Margot to playing against LHP he will be fine.  Of course, there is also the aspect the question of what's the best way to get Julien on-track.  A reset in AAA is probably best for Eddy

BTW ... Santana has been pretty decent the last 6 weeks.

#	Name	Team	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	Spd	BABIP	UBR	wGDP	XBR	wSB	wRC	wRAA	wOBA	wRC+
1	Max Kepler	MIN	100	8.0%	16.0%	0.50	.281	.354	.506	.859	.225	2.2	.314	-0.1	0.1		-0.2	17	5.1	.374	146
2	Willi Castro	MIN	117	9.4%	17.9%	0.52	.267	.342	.429	.770	.162	7.8	.317	0.3	0.2		0.0	16	2.8	.339	123
3	Carlos Correa	MIN	114	8.8%	19.3%	0.45	.255	.316	.471	.786	.216	4.5	.291	0.1	0.2		-0.2	16	2.6	.338	122
4	Jose Miranda	MIN	99	4.0%	13.1%	0.31	.280	.313	.462	.775	.183	2.4	.286	-0.1	-0.2		-0.2	14	2.2	.337	121
5	Ryan Jeffers	MIN	103	6.8%	31.1%	0.22	.198	.275	.495	.769	.297	2.9	.208	0.4	0.2		0.1	14	1.8	.330	116
6	Carlos Santana	MIN	103	11.7%	14.6%	0.80	.242	.330	.407	.737	.165	2.5	.250	0.0	0.1		0.0	13	1.3	.325	112
7	Trevor Larnach	MIN	73	8.2%	20.5%	0.40	.209	.274	.388	.662	.179	0.7	.208	-0.1	0.1		-0.1	8	-0.9	.293	91
8	Kyle Farmer	MIN	38	5.3%	18.4%	0.29	.235	.316	.324	.639	.088	3.0	.296	0.1	0.0		-0.7	4	-0.5	.292	90
9	Byron Buxton	MIN	51	7.8%	29.4%	0.27	.213	.275	.383	.657	.170	5.9	.267	0.4	0.1		-0.3	5	-0.8	.290	89
10	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	67	9.0%	31.3%	0.29	.167	.239	.383	.622	.217	1.6	.167	0.0	-0.3		-0.1	6	-1.9	.272	76
11	Manuel Margot	MIN	60	6.7%	11.7%	0.57	.232	.283	.268	.551	.036	5.1	.265	0.2	-0.1		0.3	4	-2.7	.252	62
12	Austin Martin	MIN	15	6.7%	26.7%	0.25	.214	.267	.286	.552	.071	7.5	.300	0.1	0.0		0.4	1	-0.7	.249	61
13	Edouard Julien	MIN	85	11.8%	36.5%	0.32	.187	.282	.200	.482	.013	5.6	.318	0.0	0.1		0.8	5	-5.1	.232	49
14	Christian Vázquez	MIN	58	0.0%	24.1%	0.00	.089	.103	.107	.211	.018	2.4	.116	0.1	-0.1		-0.4	-3	-9.7	.096	-44

 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

You guys think this is hard try carpentry with the archaic imperial system. Fractions, aye my head hurts. 

I did buy my co-worker and myself metric tape measures, but I guess so far we've been too set in our ways to try a using them, lol.

Particularly when the 50.8 mm x 101.6 mm piece of lumber you're using to frame walls only actually measures about 38 mm x 76 mm...

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

.00559 x 59 = about 0.33 wins to date, or roughly 1 win for the year. 🤣

Many of us who participate in game threads from time to time are surprised it could be even this many.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

This is me

Find a GIF of an orangutan hiring a more highly-skilled chimp* to do the work, and you'll have me.

* I did my homework and asked ChatGPT 3.5, the AI being more highly-skilled than I at comprehensive fact-checking

[Riverbrian]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Find a GIF of an orangutan hiring a more highly-skilled chimp to do the work, and you'll have me.

The Orangutan tried to hire a chimp but the behavior during the job interview was a little...

Over the top. So the Orangutan hired Brian Dozier instead.

[Riverbrian]

On 6/3/2024 at 12:55 PM, Riverbrian said:

I'll take a shot - Possible spoiler alert

1. Larnach - LF

2. Jeffers - C

3. Kepler - RF

4. Lewis - 3B

5. Correa - SS

6. Kirilloff - 1B

7. Buxton - CF

8. Castro - 2B

9. Miranda - DH

1. Larnach - DH

2. Correa - SS

3. Miranda - 1B

4. Kepler - RF 

5. Lewis - 3B

6 - Kirilloff - LF

7 - Buxton - CF

8 - Castro - 2B

9 - Vazquez - C

The only real surprise is Vazquez squatting tonight. Unless Jeffers is nursing something. Vazquez starting tonight is a pretty clear indication that Jeffers won't be DH'ing against left handers for the time being. With the lefty Rodon throwing tomorrow. Jeffers playing DH giving Vazquez back to back starts at C doesn't make a lot of sense. At the same time... DH'ing Vazquez tomorrow doesn't make much sense because he really shouldn't be DH'ing. 

Tomorrow I'll guess

Miranda - DH

Jeffers - C

Santana - 1B

Farmer - 2B

Lewis - 3B

Correa - SS

Castro - LF

Buxton - CF

Margot - RF  

 

Vazquez draws the start at C tonight and that is a little surprising.  

[IndianaTwin]

21 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

...Vazquez draws the start at C tonight and that is a little surprising.  

The pattern I observed is that after a day off, they seem to reset the alternation to have Vazquez start the next game. And in this case, Jeffers did start on Sunday, so it would be Vazquez's turn. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2024-lineups.shtml

(Don't shoot me. I'm just the messenger.)

 

For tomorrow's guess, I wonder if you might flip-flop Miranda's and Lewis's positions. At the least, I'm guessing Lewis won't play 3B both Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon after playing tonight.

 

 

[Riverbrian]

16 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

The pattern I observed is that after a day off, they seem to reset the alternation to have Vazquez start the next game. And in this case, Jeffers did start on Sunday, so it would be Vazquez's turn. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2024-lineups.shtml

(Don't shoot me. I'm just the messenger.)

 

For tomorrow's guess, I wonder if you might flip-flop Miranda's and Lewis's positions. At the least, I'm guessing Lewis won't play 3B both Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon after playing tonight.

 

 

Rocco has been pretty consistent with a 50-50 behind the plate and it is Vazquez's turn but Jeffers was getting extra AB's by DH'ing against the lefties.

I just fully expect that Jeffers would not DH against left handers going forward with Miranda taking over those duties against left handers. 

And if that's the case... I'd expect the catching rotation to go 67-33 in favor of Jeffers.

Vazquez starting tonight could mean that the 50-50 still lives.  

You make a good point. They may want to ease Lewis back in and DH him tomorrow. Tomorrow's lineup will be interesting and should provide lots of clues. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Rocco has been pretty consistent with a 50-50 behind the plate and it is Vazquez's turn but Jeffers was getting extra AB's by DH'ing against the lefties.

I just fully expect that Jeffers would not DH against left handers going forward with Miranda taking over those duties against left handers. 

And if that's the case... I'd expect the catching rotation to go 67-33 in favor of Jeffers.

Vazquez starting tonight could mean that the 50-50 still lives.  

You make a good point. They may want to ease Lewis back in and DH him tomorrow. Tomorrow's lineup will be interesting and should provide lots of clues. 

 

 

we can be pretty sure Jeffers won't catch Thursday, regardless. So, I just don't get this at all. Somehow, after tonight, Vazquez will have started 4 more games at catcher than Jeffers. I just don't get it. That's 14% more than Jeffers.......

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

we can be pretty sure Jeffers won't catch Thursday, regardless. So, I just don't get this at all. Somehow, after tonight, Vazquez will have started 4 more games at catcher than Jeffers. I just don't get it. 

Maybe Jeffers has a minor ouch. Just a random guess, rationalization. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

we can be pretty sure Jeffers won't catch Thursday, regardless. So, I just don't get this at all. Somehow, after tonight, Vazquez will have started 4 more games at catcher than Jeffers. I just don't get it. That's 14% more than Jeffers.......

Unless Vazquez catches Wednesday also......but I bet Lewis is the DH Wednesday and Jeffers catches one whole game this series.....

[sampleSizeOfOne]

10 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I don't know. Splinters was just used to suggest that Farmer would sit a lot based on the proposed scenario. 

Let's try this instead.

Farmer's watch will be telling him to get up and walk around during games. 

That one might be better. 

Interesting update of the expression...

but them watches is expensive and fragile. You really think they wear them in games? Oh right. The fact that he has one on means he's not in the game.

Nevermind.

My brain extension is telling me i need remove my foot from my mouth by way of a passive aggressive red underline of the offending phrase.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

39 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Maybe Jeffers has a minor ouch. Just a random guess, rationalization. 

 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

we can be pretty sure Jeffers won't catch Thursday, regardless. So, I just don't get this at all. Somehow, after tonight, Vazquez will have started 4 more games at catcher than Jeffers. I just don't get it. That's 14% more than Jeffers.......

They want his glove and do not care about his bat.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Maybe Jeffers has a minor ouch. Just a random guess, rationalization.

Jeffers has had an ouch in his batting average since May 15.  Might be small sample size, might be bad-BABIP-luck, and I don't know what level of faith Rocco places on recent performance.  I also won't claim to know what "messages" Rocco sends via his lineups, but one possibility is that the skipper is telling him, "you want starter's minutes, you need to keep earning them when you have the chance.  Be ready when called on today, and see you tomorrow."

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Jeffers has had an ouch in his batting average since May 15.  Might be small sample size, might be bad-BABIP-luck, and I don't know what level of faith Rocco places on recent performance.  I also won't claim to know what "messages" Rocco sends via his lineups, but one possibility is that the skipper is telling him, "you want starter's minutes, you need to keep earning them when you have the chance.  Be ready when called on today, and see you tomorrow."

Maybe... Could be. 

However... He does appear to skip some when passing that message along. 

[darin617]

On 6/3/2024 at 6:19 PM, Mike Sixel said:

League average as a hitter for the year, and above average defense this year.......he's a median 2B right now. 

Above average defense? Not sure I would qualify Julien as a great/good defender. 

[Riverbrian]

3 Games post Lewis replacing Julien and all of Rocco's cards have been displayed. With Buxton and Lewis both getting maintenance days yesterday not only did we get to see the vs RH and vs LH lineup but we also got to see how the maintenance days will be handled. 

1. Maintenance days will occur when right handers are on the mound.

2. Buxton and Lewis are going to get maintenance days and I believe Rocco has decided to rest them on the same day to compromise one single day as opposed to compromising two days with them having separate maintenance days. 

3. Margot did not get the start in CF with Buxton getting a maintenance day. 

4. Castro has added Julien's role as the 2B against RH pitchers while keeping his backup SS and CF jobs. This will increase Farmers playing time because Farmer has to play 2B when Castro is needed elsewhere. 

5. The importance of Castro is off the charts