Minnesota Twins are Overwhelming Favorites to Make the Playoffs, Projections Say

[Matthew Taylor]

Three weeks ago, the sky was falling. Now? The vibes have never been better. Settle in, and let’s take a look at what the projections say about the Twins’ chances of getting back to October baseball again this season.

Image courtesy of © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday kicked off one of the more challenging stretches of games for the Minnesota Twins this season. Over the next four weeks, the Twins will have six games against the New York Yankees, three on the road against the Cleveland Guardians, four against the surprisingly formidable Royals and three on the road against the struggling but uber-talented Houston Astros.

Coming off of winning 17 of 20 games and beginning this tough stretch of baseball, let’s zoom out and take a look at the Twins’ playoff outlook, according to the projection systems.

When you talk about projection systems (and playoff odds, specifically), the two best places to look are FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Both outlets have had tons of success with their season simulations and projecting the performances of teams. These systems have proven to be more even more reliable than sports betting outlets.

While each of their models are different, Baseball Prospectus's and FanGraphs's projection systems essentially work the same way. They take the current standings, remaining strength of schedule and projected performance, and then simulate the rest of the season thousands of times. How those simulations play out determines each team's reported odds and expected record.

Looking at both sets of playoff odds as of Tuesday morning, here are the key takeaways.

1. The Minnesota Twins are heavy favorites to win the division, and overwhelming favorites to make the playoffs.
Both projection systems feel very confident in the Twins’ chances of making the tournament in October. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 72% chance of winning the division and a 90% chance of making the playoffs, while FanGraphs has them at 61% and 81%, respectively.

There are three reasons for this. First, the Twins were the preseason favorites to win the division. Those early projections still come into play, as systems like these forecast how the rest of the season will play out. Second, the Twins are currently only one game out of the division lead and hold a playoff spot. And third, the Twins possess the easiest strength of schedule among the teams in the American League Central the rest of the way.

2. FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus agree that the Guardians are the Twins’ biggest threat for the division crown.
While the Royals have been impressive to start the season and are only a game and a half out of first place, both projection platforms view the Guardians as the biggest threat to the Minnesota Twins for the American League Central crown. FanGraphs has the Guardians at 17% to win the division, while Baseball Prospectus is a little more bullish on Cleveland, giving the Guardians a 21% chance to take the crown.

3. The Twins have a good shot at a playoff bye.
Major League Baseball changed the playoff rules for 2022, such that the two division winners with the best records earn a first-round playoff bye and the third-best division-winning team is forced to play a best-of-three series against a Wild Card team. Last year, the American League Central winner was a sure bet all season to get the best-of-three series, as the division was so bad.

This season, the AL Central looks much more formidable and the Twins have a decent chance to avoid the best-of-three coinflip. FanGraphs has the Twins at 46% to clinch a bye and advance straight to the best-of-five division round. Would that bye count as two playoff wins, for this franchise that still counts such events carefully? That’s a conversation for another day.

Do you feel confident in the Twins winning the division or making the playoffs? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[tony&rodney]

The Twins have been relatively healthy thus far in 2024. Injuries to key players (Correa, Kepler, Julien) and pitchers (Lopez, Ryan, Ober , Duran) can change fortunes and playoff odds. Hopefully extended IL stints can be avoided and the team wins the AL Central.

[LambchoP]

Too early to tell. I also think our playoff odds are going to be dependent on how well the trade deadline goes. If we can pick up a decent starter or some bullpen help, I like our chances. If we totally get hosed like the last few years, it's going to make it that much harder. Al central is not a push over division anymore...

[Dman]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have been relatively healthy thus far in 2024. Injuries to key players (Correa, Kepler, Julien) and pitchers (Lopez, Ryan, Ober , Duran) can change fortunes and playoff odds. Hopefully extended IL stints can be avoided and the team wins the AL Central.

Yeah it all comes down to injuries especially at the rotation level.  If they can avoid setbacks there I like their odds.

[Fat Calvin]

Yeah, 3 weeks ago they were overwhelming favorites to miss the playoffs.  It's mid May.  Give it a few months.  We'll talk playoffs come July.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I don't really know how Cleveland is winning games. Their rotation is iffy, the bullpen has a heavy workload and the line-up is very dependent on J. Naylor and Ramirez. I think their ceiling is a .500 team. Time will tell. 

[Karbo]

I'm hopeful. The next couple of weeks could go a long way to solidifying the standings.

[Patzky]

23 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I don't really know how Cleveland is winning games. Their rotation is iffy, the bullpen has a heavy workload and the line-up is very dependent on J. Naylor and Ramirez. I think their ceiling is a .500 team. Time will tell. 

An up close and personal look is just around the corner. My hope is we're still wondering how they can win at this time next week. ☺️

[Doctor Gast]

With what we have now it's 50/50 but the return of Lewis, Buxton & Steward there's no doubt. 

[Oldtimer]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

With what we have now it's 50/50 but the return of Lewis, Buxton & Steward there's no doubt. 

There's no chance that those three will remain healthy or playable for the balance of the season after their return. History!!!!

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Oldtimer said:

There's no chance that those three will remain healthy or playable for the balance of the season after their return. History!!!!

Fifty percent of them sixty percent of the time oughta do. 

[Beast]

I think the projections are a little heavy.  I’m still not convinced the central can produce a Wild Card.  They just may have the win the division outright, and there’s some stiff competition there.

Regardless, making the playoffs is the minimum/baseline for this team. Anything  less than winning a series is an abject failure

[h2oface]

Projections. Pace. Both meaningless. 

[singlesoverwalks]

I'm going to join what I presume is the chorus questioning the word choice "overwhelming." Let's take Fangraph's 81% projection on the Twins making the playoffs. That means there's a 19% chance that the Twins miss the playoffs. If I roll a 6-sided die, the chance I roll a 1 is only about 17%. So there's better than the chance of rolling a 1 that the Twins miss the playoffs, per Fangraphs.

I'd just say they're favorites. A lot could change.

 

[David HK]

YES!

And the T-Wolves are shoo-ins for the NBA title!

Oh, wait... 🤔

[singlesoverwalks]

Just checking back in on this article one week later.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Cleveland lost their ace in Bieber, and their next two best pitchers are nursing sore elbows. Imagine the outcry if the Twins were forced to compete without Lopez, Ryan and Ober in the rotation.

We know Chicago is out, and Detroit and Kansas City are still very young. 

The money line is back out to about +280 to win the division after that seven game skid. If you like betting and like the Twins, now’s a good time to put that money down.