Minnesota Twins are Overwhelming Favorites to Make the Playoffs, Projections Say

Tuesday kicked off one of the more challenging stretches of games for the Minnesota Twins this season. Over the next four weeks, the Twins will have six games against the New York Yankees, three on the road against the Cleveland Guardians, four against the surprisingly formidable Royals and three on the road against the struggling but uber-talented Houston Astros.

Coming off of winning 17 of 20 games and beginning this tough stretch of baseball, let’s zoom out and take a look at the Twins’ playoff outlook, according to the projection systems.

When you talk about projection systems (and playoff odds, specifically), the two best places to look are FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Both outlets have had tons of success with their season simulations and projecting the performances of teams. These systems have proven to be more even more reliable than sports betting outlets.

While each of their models are different, Baseball Prospectus's and FanGraphs's projection systems essentially work the same way. They take the current standings, remaining strength of schedule and projected performance, and then simulate the rest of the season thousands of times. How those simulations play out determines each team's reported odds and expected record.

Looking at both sets of playoff odds as of Tuesday morning, here are the key takeaways.

1. The Minnesota Twins are heavy favorites to win the division, and overwhelming favorites to make the playoffs.
Both projection systems feel very confident in the Twins’ chances of making the tournament in October. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 72% chance of winning the division and a 90% chance of making the playoffs, while FanGraphs has them at 61% and 81%, respectively.

There are three reasons for this. First, the Twins were the preseason favorites to win the division. Those early projections still come into play, as systems like these forecast how the rest of the season will play out. Second, the Twins are currently only one game out of the division lead and hold a playoff spot. And third, the Twins possess the easiest strength of schedule among the teams in the American League Central the rest of the way.

2. FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus agree that the Guardians are the Twins’ biggest threat for the division crown.
While the Royals have been impressive to start the season and are only a game and a half out of first place, both projection platforms view the Guardians as the biggest threat to the Minnesota Twins for the American League Central crown. FanGraphs has the Guardians at 17% to win the division, while Baseball Prospectus is a little more bullish on Cleveland, giving the Guardians a 21% chance to take the crown.

3. The Twins have a good shot at a playoff bye.
Major League Baseball changed the playoff rules for 2022, such that the two division winners with the best records earn a first-round playoff bye and the third-best division-winning team is forced to play a best-of-three series against a Wild Card team. Last year, the American League Central winner was a sure bet all season to get the best-of-three series, as the division was so bad.

This season, the AL Central looks much more formidable and the Twins have a decent chance to avoid the best-of-three coinflip. FanGraphs has the Twins at 46% to clinch a bye and advance straight to the best-of-five division round. Would that bye count as two playoff wins, for this franchise that still counts such events carefully? That’s a conversation for another day.

Do you feel confident in the Twins winning the division or making the playoffs? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!