Week in Review: Going Legit

[Nick Nelson]

The good times continue to roll for the Minnesota Twins, who logged another winning week and, in doing so, ascended near the top of the AL Central standings.

To the extent this incredible ongoing run could have previously been attributed to low-grade competition, that's no longer the case, as the Twins took the fight to a pair of playoff contenders with premier pitching and outclassed them both.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/6 through Sun, 5/12
***
Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 24-16)
Run Differential Last Week: +14 (Overall: +27)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (0.5 GB)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 34 | MIN 3, SEA 1: Twins Take Opener Behind Strong Pitching
Game 35 | SEA 10, MIN 6: Bullpen Unravels and Blows Late Lead
Game 36 | MIN 6, SEA 3: Paddack Prevails with Help from Homers
Game 37 | MIN 11, SEA 1: Mariners Dismantled in Stunning Takedown
Game 38 | MIN 3, TOR 2: Ryan's Gem Sets Tone in Series Opener
Game 39 | TOR 10, MIN 8: Another Bullpen Meltdown Sinks Twins
Game 40 | MIN 5, TOR 1: Offense Spring Late to Clinch 6th Straight Series

IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. FIND THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY.

NEWS & NOTES

While it was a very active week on the schedule, with seven games and a trip across the border to Canada, there was relatively little action on the roster churn front, and that's a welcome change.

Nobody landed on the injured list over the past seven days, and the only significant roster move – aside from a few minor-league signings, and Josh Winder initiating a rehab stint – was the swap of Jorge Alcalá for Josh Staumont in the bullpen. The treatment of Alcalá, who threw nearly 50 pitches on Tuesday before being optioned once again to Triple-A, remains perplexing. Especially considering that, as we'll discuss, the Twins could use all the help they can get in those middle-relief innings.

We did receive an update, via Dan Hayes of The Athletic, on the status of Royce Lewis, and unfortunately it's nothing overly positive. While Lewis has been able to engage in some baseball activities at partial intensity, a recent MRI showed that his quad strain suffered on Opening Day has not yet fully healed, and still shows signs of inflammation.

This is not necessarily unexpected, but it does put a damper on the idea of Lewis returning anytime in the near future, as he goes through what he's called "the most challenging rehab" of a career that has thus far been defined by challenging rehabs. Two-plus months was always the most realistic timetable for an injury of this severity, as Derek Falvey more or less alluded in the article while saying the team is pleased with his recovery so far.

The Twins have every reason to take it slow and ensure Lewis' quad is in a very good place before they fully ramp him up, especially since they're somehow managing to play at a 97-win pace in his absence. 

HIGHLIGHTS

The turnaround of the Twins offense has been amazing to behold. The lineup didn't just go from bad to good; it essentially went from worst to best in almost the blink of an eye. Through their first 20 games the Twins had the league's worst offense (per wRC+) aside from the White Sox and Marlins, and since then only the Dodgers have been better. The past week saw Minnesota push across 42 runs in seven games against quality pitching as they slugged 10 more home runs and added 17 doubles, winning five of seven to rise eight games above the .500 mark.

 

The offensive charge continues to be led by red-hot Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers, who've been among the best hitters in the league over the past three weeks. Kepler ran his hitting streak up to 14 games, going 10-for-25 with a homer and six doubles. Since his return from the injured list on April 22nd, Kepler leads the major leagues in WAR and WPA. 

Jeffers is pacing the American League with a .988 OPS overall after homering three more times in the past week and driving in seven runs across five games. There are not enough superlatives to describe what Jeffers is doing – simply a mind-blowing display of power-hitting prowess to build off last year's breakthrough. It also bears noting that the catcher's strikeout rate is below 20%, far down from his career 29% mark. He is just locked in beyond belief.

 

As great as Kepler and Jeffers have been, it is the steady contributions up and down the lineup that are making the Twins offense almost impossibly formidable for opponents. Carlos Correa looks to be back fully in his groove; he went 7-for-23 with four doubles, striking out just twice in 25 plate appearances. Willi Castro kept cooking with six hits on the week including a double, triple and homer. Carlos Santana, whose individual resurgence has been as remarkable as anyone's, homered in three straight games in Toronto, including a crucial three-run bomb that decided Sunday's contest.

This offense just has a spark and drive that were completely amiss throughout that ugly 7-13 run to open the season. They start strong, they avoid long dry spells, and they step up in key spots – all traits that leaned in the opposite direction early on. 

Thursday's game, which might have been the most impressive victory of the year thus far for the Twins, reflected this transformation perfectly. Heading into a getaway day with a depleted bullpen, going up against MLB's ERA leader in Logan Gilbert, the Minnesota lineup ambushed for five runs in the first inning, then kept adding on the way to an 11-1 series-clinching blowout.

Of course, what shouldn't be overlooked in this example is that Pablo López and the Twins held Seattle to one run, so all of that extra run support wasn't ultimately even needed. This points to the underlying thread in all of this winning from the Twins: starting pitching has re-emerged as an overwhelming strength. 

López was dominant against the M's on Thursday, holding them to one run in 6 ⅓ innings with 10 strikeouts and no walks. The previous night, Chris Paddack struck out 10 over 5 ⅓ frames of one-run ball. Joe Ryan followed with seven excellent innings in Toronto on Friday, lowering his ERA to 3.21 and improving his K/BB ratio to 53-to-6. Bailey Ober allowed two runs over 10 ⅓ innings in his two starts and was flat-out brilliant on Sunday. Simeon Woods Richardson had one great start and one not-great start, but his 3.24 ERA through 25 innings has been a revelation in the No. 5 rotation spot.

Collectively Twins starters allowed 10 earned runs over 40 ⅓ innings (2.23 ERA) last week with 54 strikeouts and five walks. Absurd.

 

LOWLIGHTS

It could have been an even better week for the Twins, who had multi-run leads in their losses on Tuesday and Saturday before watching the soft underbelly of their bullpen get sliced open on both occasions. On Tuesday it was Jay Jackson, Steven Okert and Alcalá combining to allow eight earned runs in the final three innings, turning a 4-2 lead into a 10-6 loss. Jackson and Okert were also involved in Saturday's meltdown, which saw the Twins carry an 8-3 advantage into the fifth before giving up seven unanswered and losing 10-8. Cole Sands surrendered three runs in that one, and Caleb Thielbar looked brutal, giving up two walks and a hit while recording one out. 

To some extent, a few lapses need to be expected from the bullpen for a team on such a heater. Outside of the blowout loss against Boston on May 5th, the Twins have had late leads to protect in literally every game over the past three weeks. While there were a couple lopsided victories mixed in, this relief corps has been pressed into high-leverage situations almost nonstop in the past 20 games, with very few days off mixed in. 

That takes a toll, and it limits Rocco Baldelli's ability to use his preferred relievers at all the times he'd like to, including Tuesday and Saturday when both Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax were unavailable due to previous usage. The problem is that right now it feels like no one other than those two can be trusted in important spots at all, and even Jax looked a little rocky in his three appearances last week.

Being without Brock Stewart, who was Minnesota's most effective reliever before going down with a shoulder injury, obviously hinders the depth of the bullpen at the back end. But the Twins are going to need more on balance going forward from this bullpen. Mainly because, from a big-picture perspective, they cannot afford to keep riding Durán and Jax as hard as they've been forced to during this stretch. 

 

It's reasonable to expect the likes of Okert and Kody Funderburk to rebound from their current slumps, but Jackson and Thielbar – 36 and 37 years old, respectively – seem to be showing their age, and that feels less reversible. Patience from the coaching staff has to be wearing very thin especially with Jackson, who has shown no ability to get anybody out with a diminished arsenal that wasn't strong to begin with. He was charged with five earned runs on four hits and a walk while recording only one out in each of his two appearances, ballooning his ERA to 6.87. Jackson has allowed at least one run in nine of his past 11 outings.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Byron Buxton will be eligible to come off the 10-day injured list on Tuesday. Scans on his inflamed right knee came back negative, and there's been suggestion from the team that Buxton's IL stint could end up being close to the minimum. It's obviously something that is going to loom over him, but there is hope that this flare-up was more of a minor bump in the road than a sign of things to come. We shall see.

First, we'll see how the Twins choose to handle Buxton. Like with Lewis, there's no need whatsoever to rush, since the team is playing phenomenally without him as we wrap up the first quarter of the campaign. The front office could choose to send him on a rehab assignment, although my feeling by now is, why waste any of his game reps anywhere other than the big-league field. If he's going to be dashing around on the bases and chasing balls in the outfield, I'd just as soon have him doing it for the Twins where that impact can be felt.

The impact is perhaps greater than you might perceive. Buxton's bat was undoubtedly mediocre through 28 games, as he's been fighting through some major struggles with his plate approach (32-to-3 K/BB), but the 30-year-old has been a big contributor via fielding and base-running. The Twins rank fourth out of 30 MLB teams in fWAR from the center fielder position, primarily because of Buxton and his defensive excellence. 

 

If Buxton's feeling okay, the Twins might as well activate him, but maybe with a plan to reduce his usage compared to appearing in 28 of the first 30 games. Therein lies the tricky part – it'd be great to keep rotating Austin Martin through center field once or twice a week, but someone's gotta go to make room on the roster for Buxton. That would seemingly need to be either Martin or José Miranda, who is now sort of thriving as Minnesota's regular third baseman (started 8 of last 10 games). The fact that Castro can play both positions gives the Twins a luxury of choosing based on their preference.

LOOKING AHEAD

Another challenging and consequential week looms for the Twins, who will get a break on Monday before welcoming the dreaded New York Yankees to town for a midweek series. Then it's off to Cleveland for three games against the Guardians. These specific opponents, of course, carry special weight for the Twins: the Yankees, their eternal tormentors, and a Guardians team that looks to be their top competitor in the Central. New York and Cleveland also been two of the best teams in the league up to this point, ranking second and third in the AL in wins.

Another strong week would not only solidify the Twins' legitimacy as contenders, it would help build their suddenly viable case as THE team to beat in the American League. 

TUESDAY, MAY 14: YANKEES @ TWINS – LHP Carlos Rodon v. RHP Chris Paddack
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15: YANKEES @ TWINS – RHP Marcus Stroman v. RHP Pablo Lopez
THURSDAY, MAY 16: YANKEES @ TWINS – RHP Clarke Schmidt v. RHP Joe Ryan
FRIDAY, MAY 17: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Triston McKenzie
SATURDAY, MAY 18: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Logan Allen
SUNDAY, MAY 19: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Chris Paddack v. RHP Tanner Bibee

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[Oldgoat_MN]

Excellent article. Thank you. 

There are times when the Twins look practically unbeatable. Makes it really fun to be a fan.

Go Twins!

[bean5302]

If Buxton isn't hurt, there's no reason to sit him. Get the games out of him you can when you can. The idea you can rest a guy constantly is just Baldelli trying to re-write his own injury ended career through giving his current players more rest. Not unexpectedly, it hasn't worked out.

[CoastiePilot08]

The bullpen as constructed will not hold up. 
 

any update on topa??

 

[Goofé Dean]

Here's a Twins factoid that's less exciting but more weird than the winning streak:

For eight days in a row, the Twins have had the same result (and been the same number of games over .500) as the Royals. Both teams have gone LWLWWWLW since May 5, and as a result they've been effectively tied (the Twins are "percentage points ahead," meh) for second place in the division the whole time.

The streak will end on Monday night unless K.C. is rained out in Seattle; the Twins have the day off. Though of course it does rain in Seattle sometimes....

[VivaBomboRivera!]

I am once again puffing out my chest with pride when I wear my official 2019 season Kasota gold-trimmed navy Max Kepler (26)  jersey.  Let's enjoy the ride while it lasts.

[Fezig]

It's no coincidence the team is winning now that they've abandoned the "swing for the fences or bust" mentality. It looks like they got tired of busting.

[Obie]

The fans have been trying to trade Kepler for years and now assume he will be gone when his contract ends after this year. Should the Twins attempt to extend him before he hits the free agent market? With the triumvirate of Larnach, Wallner, and Kiriloff teasing but never solidifying their outfield roles, it would seem prudent to explore a Kepler extension.

[Riverbrian]

10 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

To the extent this incredible ongoing run could have previously been attributed to low-grade competition, that's no longer the case, as the Twins took the fight to a pair of playoff contenders with premier pitching and outclassed them both.

The worst teams in baseball win 4 out of 10 games.

The best teams in baseball win 6 out of 10 games. 

Average teams win 5 out of 10 games. 

The Margins are incredibly thin, low-grade competition really doesn't exist. 

Thursday Morning May 9th.

The Baltimore Orioles had the best record in the American League 24-12 .667 Win Percentage

The Cleveland Guardians were 24-13 with a .649 Win Percentage.

The White Sox were 15 games behind Cleveland with a .243 winning percentage.

The Guardians and White Sox met in Chicago for a 4 games series this weekend and things just didn't go as planned. 

The worst teams in baseball win 4 out of 10 games. The best teams in baseball win 6 out 10. The White Sox will win games and the Phillies will lose games. 

After going 7-13 in the first 20... The Twins went 17-3 in the next 20. After 40 games... the Twins have 24 wins which is: 6 out of 10. Can they keep that pace up. I don't know. 

122 games left to go. Hang on... there will be ups and downs. .400 winning percentage teams can and will beat you. .600 winning percentage teams can and do lose. 

 

[Peter]

Huge week!!! I’ll take 4-2-time for the kids to keep winning and take over central division lead!!!

[wabene]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The idea you can rest a guy constantly is just Baldelli trying to re-write his own injury ended career through giving his current players more rest

I've considered this before, how Baldelli's career and injury history might effect his decision making. Then again didn't Correa just have his first day off in 3 weeks the other day? He does ride guys who are healthy and playing well.

[Patzky]

26 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The worst teams in baseball win 4 out of 10 games.

The best teams in baseball win 6 out of 10 games. 

Average teams win 5 out of 10 games. 

The Margins are incredibly thin, low-grade competition really doesn't exist. 

Thursday Morning May 9th.

The Baltimore Orioles had the best record in the American League 24-12 .667 Win Percentage

The Cleveland Guardians were 24-13 with a .649 Win Percentage.

The White Sox were 15 games behind Cleveland with a .243 winning percentage.

The Guardians and White Sox met in Chicago for a 4 games series this weekend and things just didn't go as planned. 

The worst teams in baseball win 4 out of 10 games. The best teams in baseball win 6 out 10. The White Sox will win games and the Phillies will lose games. 

After going 7-13 in the first 20... The Twins went 17-3 in the next 20. After 40 games... the Twins have 24 wins which is: 6 out of 10. Can they keep that pace up. I don't know. 

122 games left to go. Hang on... there will be ups and downs. .400 winning percentage teams can and will beat you. .600 winning percentage teams can and do lose. 

 

And the Rockies swept the Rangers.

 

Grand old game!

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

8 hours ago, Fezig said:

It's no coincidence the team is winning now that they've abandoned the "swing for the fences or bust" mentality. It looks like they got tired of busting.

The Twins are hitting fewer groundballs, more flyballs and more home runs since the offensive outbreak. 

[Jeff K]

Hopefully we get a healthy Buxton back this week and the Margot experiment can come to a close.  Regarding the relief pitchers, obviously Brock Stewart is needed.  I am hopeful that Staumont will be a solid contributor going  forward.  I don't trust Jackson or Sands.

[LambchoP]

Bullpen definitely needs help. Stewart would be the biggest addition. Not sure what's up with Topa. Might be another desclafini situation. We're gonna need another arm or two at the trade deadline for sure...

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

The Twins are hitting fewer groundballs, more flyballs and more home runs since they offensive outbreak. 

Yea, I think it's less about changing their approach and more about the approach finally working. Twins are tied for 4th in MLB in HR since the winning streak started and they lead MLB in ISO. Still a very very power-driven team, but they have managed to cut down the K's which is huge.

[MN_ExPat]

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If Buxton isn't hurt, there's no reason to sit him. Get the games out of him you can when you can. The idea you can rest a guy constantly is just Baldelli trying to re-write his own injury ended career through giving his current players more rest. Not unexpectedly, it hasn't worked out.

You might not remember that a medical disorder caused the end of Baldelli's career, not specifically an injury.

[MN_ExPat]

12 hours ago, Goofé Dean said:

Here's a Twins factoid that's less exciting but more weird than the winning streak:

For eight days in a row, the Twins have had the same result (and been the same number of games over .500) as the Royals. Both teams have gone LWLWWWLW since May 5, and as a result they've been effectively tied (the Twins are "percentage points ahead," meh) for second place in the division the whole time.

The streak will end on Monday night unless K.C. is rained out in Seattle; the Twins have the day off. Though of course it does rain in Seattle sometimes....

Seattle has a roof on their stadium.

[wabene]

45 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Seattle has a roof on their stadium.

Nah, don't be goofé

[Goofé Dean]

14 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

Seattle has a roof on their stadium.

Eh—details. The White Sox were rained out on Monday in (the other) Washington, so I'm going to conveniently take that as a partial success of my prophecy.

Anyway, the Mariners beat the Royals, so the streak is over, and the Twins are finally free and clear in second place for the first time all season!

[Fezig]

21 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

The Twins are hitting fewer groundballs, more flyballs and more home runs since the offensive outbreak. 

I have no doubt. That doesn't mean every at-bat is a swing for the fences swing. Putting a good swing on a ball is much different than an all or nothing approach.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, Fezig said:

I have no doubt. That doesn't mean every at-bat is a swing for the fences swing. Putting a good swing on a ball is much different than an all or nothing approach.

Specifically, what do you think changed about their approach? Are you saying there was a process change purely on the basis of a difference in results? 

[Fezig]

21 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Specifically, what do you think changed about their approach? Are you saying there was a process change purely on the basis of a difference in results? 

I just simply think they changed the philosophy of swinging for the fences on every count. Trying for solid contact and putting the ball in play can result in opposite field hits, gap doubles and triples, and even home runs. I'm pretty sure I've even read the manager implemented a hit and run a time or two. That was unheard of before! Now if we see a bunt we know things have really changed.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, Fezig said:

I just simply think they changed the philosophy of swinging for the fences on every count. Trying for solid contact and putting the ball in play can result in opposite field hits, gap doubles and triples, and even home runs. I'm pretty sure I've even read the manager implemented a hit and run a time or two. That was unheard of before! Now if we see a bunt we know things have really changed.

Solid contact has always been the main goal, they're just doing a better job of actually making contact. There really hasn't been a change in their approach, but in my opinion it's been a change in their preparation to attack the individual pitchers' offerings. 

[Fezig]

8 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Solid contact has always been the main goal, they're just doing a better job of actually making contact. There really hasn't been a change in their approach, but in my opinion it's been a change in their preparation to attack the individual pitchers' offerings. 

Not to pick nits, but I'd say a change in their preparation is a change in approach. That said, there's a change from the first month and it's working. Up until the Yankees, which is to be expected because that's just the Twins being the Twins.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, Fezig said:

Not to pick nits, but I'd say a change in their preparation is a change in approach. That said, there's a change from the first month and it's working. Up until the Yankees, which is to be expected because that's just the Twins being the Twins.

If the approach is to "hit the ball hard all the time" that didn't change. I still have yet to hear anyone actually describe what they mean by an "all or nothing" approach. Just seems like a buzzword (buzzphrase) for when they're slumping vs actually describing what they're trying to do at the plate. 

[Fezig]

12 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

If the approach is to "hit the ball hard all the time" that didn't change. I still have yet to hear anyone actually describe what they mean by an "all or nothing" approach. Just seems like a buzzword (buzzphrase) for when they're slumping vs actually describing what they're trying to do at the plate. 

When you're down 0-2 in the count, don't swing for the fences. Shorten your swing and put the ball in play. 

When you're down 6 runs, don't try for a 7 run HR with nobody on base. 

You can hit the ball hard and not swing out of your shoes. I've watched a lot of ball, used to play a lot but never more than town ball, and all I can say is there is a different approach to swinging when you're up 2-0 in the count than when you are down 0-2. Much different, unless you don't mind striking out.

I'm guessing for a textbook definition you'd have to look at the MLB franchise of video games that allows you to have different swings.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

On 5/16/2024 at 5:51 AM, Fezig said:

When you're down 0-2 in the count, don't swing for the fences. Shorten your swing and put the ball in play. 

When you're down 6 runs, don't try for a 7 run HR with nobody on base. 

You can hit the ball hard and not swing out of your shoes. I've watched a lot of ball, used to play a lot but never more than town ball, and all I can say is there is a different approach to swinging when you're up 2-0 in the count than when you are down 0-2. Much different, unless you don't mind striking out.

I'm guessing for a textbook definition you'd have to look at the MLB franchise of video games that allows you to have different swings.

Swing length is tracked now and hasn't changed in 2-strike counts.

I just have yet to see actual proof of any kind of change from people who claim they've meaningfully changed the process they are taking. Just seems like cheap analysis. 

[Fezig]

6 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Swing length is tracked now and hasn't changed in 2-strike counts.

I just have yet to see actual proof of any kind of change from people who claim they've meaningfully changed the process they are taking. Just seems like cheap analysis. 

Seems like cheap analysis, but yet, it isn't. Not seeing proof doesn't mean you're looking for it.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

16 hours ago, Fezig said:

Seems like cheap analysis, but yet, it isn't. Not seeing proof doesn't mean you're looking for it.

All the Twins have had shorter swings with 2 strikes all season. Nothing meaningfully changed before or after their winning streak. Those are just facts, which is why I'm asking for proof not your feelings. Simply citing standard baseball strategy (that the Twins have been employing all season) isn't very persuasive.