Week in Review: Going Legit

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/6 through Sun, 5/12
***
Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 24-16)
Run Differential Last Week: +14 (Overall: +27)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (0.5 GB)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 34 | MIN 3, SEA 1: Twins Take Opener Behind Strong Pitching
Game 35 | SEA 10, MIN 6: Bullpen Unravels and Blows Late Lead
Game 36 | MIN 6, SEA 3: Paddack Prevails with Help from Homers
Game 37 | MIN 11, SEA 1: Mariners Dismantled in Stunning Takedown
Game 38 | MIN 3, TOR 2: Ryan's Gem Sets Tone in Series Opener
Game 39 | TOR 10, MIN 8: Another Bullpen Meltdown Sinks Twins
Game 40 | MIN 5, TOR 1: Offense Spring Late to Clinch 6th Straight Series

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NEWS & NOTES

While it was a very active week on the schedule, with seven games and a trip across the border to Canada, there was relatively little action on the roster churn front, and that's a welcome change.

Nobody landed on the injured list over the past seven days, and the only significant roster move – aside from a few minor-league signings, and Josh Winder initiating a rehab stint – was the swap of Jorge Alcalá for Josh Staumont in the bullpen. The treatment of Alcalá, who threw nearly 50 pitches on Tuesday before being optioned once again to Triple-A, remains perplexing. Especially considering that, as we'll discuss, the Twins could use all the help they can get in those middle-relief innings.

We did receive an update, via Dan Hayes of The Athletic, on the status of Royce Lewis, and unfortunately it's nothing overly positive. While Lewis has been able to engage in some baseball activities at partial intensity, a recent MRI showed that his quad strain suffered on Opening Day has not yet fully healed, and still shows signs of inflammation.

This is not necessarily unexpected, but it does put a damper on the idea of Lewis returning anytime in the near future, as he goes through what he's called "the most challenging rehab" of a career that has thus far been defined by challenging rehabs. Two-plus months was always the most realistic timetable for an injury of this severity, as Derek Falvey more or less alluded in the article while saying the team is pleased with his recovery so far.

The Twins have every reason to take it slow and ensure Lewis' quad is in a very good place before they fully ramp him up, especially since they're somehow managing to play at a 97-win pace in his absence. 

HIGHLIGHTS

The turnaround of the Twins offense has been amazing to behold. The lineup didn't just go from bad to good; it essentially went from worst to best in almost the blink of an eye. Through their first 20 games the Twins had the league's worst offense (per wRC+) aside from the White Sox and Marlins, and since then only the Dodgers have been better. The past week saw Minnesota push across 42 runs in seven games against quality pitching as they slugged 10 more home runs and added 17 doubles, winning five of seven to rise eight games above the .500 mark.

The offensive charge continues to be led by red-hot Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers, who've been among the best hitters in the league over the past three weeks. Kepler ran his hitting streak up to 14 games, going 10-for-25 with a homer and six doubles. Since his return from the injured list on April 22nd, Kepler leads the major leagues in WAR and WPA. 

Jeffers is pacing the American League with a .988 OPS overall after homering three more times in the past week and driving in seven runs across five games. There are not enough superlatives to describe what Jeffers is doing – simply a mind-blowing display of power-hitting prowess to build off last year's breakthrough. It also bears noting that the catcher's strikeout rate is below 20%, far down from his career 29% mark. He is just locked in beyond belief.

As great as Kepler and Jeffers have been, it is the steady contributions up and down the lineup that are making the Twins offense almost impossibly formidable for opponents. Carlos Correa looks to be back fully in his groove; he went 7-for-23 with four doubles, striking out just twice in 25 plate appearances. Willi Castro kept cooking with six hits on the week including a double, triple and homer. Carlos Santana, whose individual resurgence has been as remarkable as anyone's, homered in three straight games in Toronto, including a crucial three-run bomb that decided Sunday's contest.

This offense just has a spark and drive that were completely amiss throughout that ugly 7-13 run to open the season. They start strong, they avoid long dry spells, and they step up in key spots – all traits that leaned in the opposite direction early on. 

Thursday's game, which might have been the most impressive victory of the year thus far for the Twins, reflected this transformation perfectly. Heading into a getaway day with a depleted bullpen, going up against MLB's ERA leader in Logan Gilbert, the Minnesota lineup ambushed for five runs in the first inning, then kept adding on the way to an 11-1 series-clinching blowout.

Of course, what shouldn't be overlooked in this example is that Pablo López and the Twins held Seattle to one run, so all of that extra run support wasn't ultimately even needed. This points to the underlying thread in all of this winning from the Twins: starting pitching has re-emerged as an overwhelming strength. 

López was dominant against the M's on Thursday, holding them to one run in 6 ⅓ innings with 10 strikeouts and no walks. The previous night, Chris Paddack struck out 10 over 5 ⅓ frames of one-run ball. Joe Ryan followed with seven excellent innings in Toronto on Friday, lowering his ERA to 3.21 and improving his K/BB ratio to 53-to-6. Bailey Ober allowed two runs over 10 ⅓ innings in his two starts and was flat-out brilliant on Sunday. Simeon Woods Richardson had one great start and one not-great start, but his 3.24 ERA through 25 innings has been a revelation in the No. 5 rotation spot.

Collectively Twins starters allowed 10 earned runs over 40 ⅓ innings (2.23 ERA) last week with 54 strikeouts and five walks. Absurd.

LOWLIGHTS

It could have been an even better week for the Twins, who had multi-run leads in their losses on Tuesday and Saturday before watching the soft underbelly of their bullpen get sliced open on both occasions. On Tuesday it was Jay Jackson, Steven Okert and Alcalá combining to allow eight earned runs in the final three innings, turning a 4-2 lead into a 10-6 loss. Jackson and Okert were also involved in Saturday's meltdown, which saw the Twins carry an 8-3 advantage into the fifth before giving up seven unanswered and losing 10-8. Cole Sands surrendered three runs in that one, and Caleb Thielbar looked brutal, giving up two walks and a hit while recording one out. 

To some extent, a few lapses need to be expected from the bullpen for a team on such a heater. Outside of the blowout loss against Boston on May 5th, the Twins have had late leads to protect in literally every game over the past three weeks. While there were a couple lopsided victories mixed in, this relief corps has been pressed into high-leverage situations almost nonstop in the past 20 games, with very few days off mixed in. 

That takes a toll, and it limits Rocco Baldelli's ability to use his preferred relievers at all the times he'd like to, including Tuesday and Saturday when both Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax were unavailable due to previous usage. The problem is that right now it feels like no one other than those two can be trusted in important spots at all, and even Jax looked a little rocky in his three appearances last week.

Being without Brock Stewart, who was Minnesota's most effective reliever before going down with a shoulder injury, obviously hinders the depth of the bullpen at the back end. But the Twins are going to need more on balance going forward from this bullpen. Mainly because, from a big-picture perspective, they cannot afford to keep riding Durán and Jax as hard as they've been forced to during this stretch. 

It's reasonable to expect the likes of Okert and Kody Funderburk to rebound from their current slumps, but Jackson and Thielbar – 36 and 37 years old, respectively – seem to be showing their age, and that feels less reversible. Patience from the coaching staff has to be wearing very thin especially with Jackson, who has shown no ability to get anybody out with a diminished arsenal that wasn't strong to begin with. He was charged with five earned runs on four hits and a walk while recording only one out in each of his two appearances, ballooning his ERA to 6.87. Jackson has allowed at least one run in nine of his past 11 outings.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Byron Buxton will be eligible to come off the 10-day injured list on Tuesday. Scans on his inflamed right knee came back negative, and there's been suggestion from the team that Buxton's IL stint could end up being close to the minimum. It's obviously something that is going to loom over him, but there is hope that this flare-up was more of a minor bump in the road than a sign of things to come. We shall see.

First, we'll see how the Twins choose to handle Buxton. Like with Lewis, there's no need whatsoever to rush, since the team is playing phenomenally without him as we wrap up the first quarter of the campaign. The front office could choose to send him on a rehab assignment, although my feeling by now is, why waste any of his game reps anywhere other than the big-league field. If he's going to be dashing around on the bases and chasing balls in the outfield, I'd just as soon have him doing it for the Twins where that impact can be felt.

The impact is perhaps greater than you might perceive. Buxton's bat was undoubtedly mediocre through 28 games, as he's been fighting through some major struggles with his plate approach (32-to-3 K/BB), but the 30-year-old has been a big contributor via fielding and base-running. The Twins rank fourth out of 30 MLB teams in fWAR from the center fielder position, primarily because of Buxton and his defensive excellence. 

If Buxton's feeling okay, the Twins might as well activate him, but maybe with a plan to reduce his usage compared to appearing in 28 of the first 30 games. Therein lies the tricky part – it'd be great to keep rotating Austin Martin through center field once or twice a week, but someone's gotta go to make room on the roster for Buxton. That would seemingly need to be either Martin or José Miranda, who is now sort of thriving as Minnesota's regular third baseman (started 8 of last 10 games). The fact that Castro can play both positions gives the Twins a luxury of choosing based on their preference.

LOOKING AHEAD

Another challenging and consequential week looms for the Twins, who will get a break on Monday before welcoming the dreaded New York Yankees to town for a midweek series. Then it's off to Cleveland for three games against the Guardians. These specific opponents, of course, carry special weight for the Twins: the Yankees, their eternal tormentors, and a Guardians team that looks to be their top competitor in the Central. New York and Cleveland also been two of the best teams in the league up to this point, ranking second and third in the AL in wins.

Another strong week would not only solidify the Twins' legitimacy as contenders, it would help build their suddenly viable case as THE team to beat in the American League. 

TUESDAY, MAY 14: YANKEES @ TWINS – LHP Carlos Rodon v. RHP Chris Paddack
WEDNESDAY, MAY 15: YANKEES @ TWINS – RHP Marcus Stroman v. RHP Pablo Lopez
THURSDAY, MAY 16: YANKEES @ TWINS – RHP Clarke Schmidt v. RHP Joe Ryan
FRIDAY, MAY 17: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Triston McKenzie
SATURDAY, MAY 18: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Logan Allen
SUNDAY, MAY 19: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Chris Paddack v. RHP Tanner Bibee