Three Offseason Decisions Already Hurting the Twins

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Farmer is expensive. Farmer himself said he was surprised they tendered him at that price. When the player says they're surprised to get that much money it's pretty clear they got paid too much. Especially now that we see he wasn't even the primary SS backup.

They stated in spring training that Santana was their everyday 1B to start the season. This was their plan. Injuries aren't what have driven the Santana PAs. They believed he was good enough to be their everyday 1B and said so early on. They were predictably wrong on him. It's looking like they may actually be adjusting early on which is a nice new side of them if it sticks.

Julien was an option at 1B last year so it's weird he wouldn't be this year.

The pitching has been as up and down as many expected, but definitely not the main cause of the early season record being so bad. Hard to find any pitching staff that could win with how this offense is performing.

Kepler - Wallner (Larnach) - Lewis - Correa all in the line-up allow Castro to play OF or DH from the left side of the plate, in front of Santana as an option. Kirilloff at 1B v. RH pitching.

Santana is a back-up when being considered as a left handed hitter…….under normal circumstances. He starts 4/2 - 4/3 or whenever because of the ripple effect of Lewis being out & Castro playing 3B v. RH pitching……,if Lewis plays Castro is in line-up v. Santana, IMO.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Kepler - Wallner (Larnach) - Lewis - Correa all in the line-up allow Castro to play OF or DH from the left side of the plate, in front of Santana as an option. Kirilloff at 1B v. RH pitching.

Santana is a back-up when being considered as a left handed hitter…….under normal circumstances. He starts 4/2 - 4/3 or whenever because of the ripple effect of Lewis being out & Castro playing 3B v. RH pitching……,if Lewis plays Castro is in line-up v. Santana, IMO.

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree. I agree he should've been seen as no more than a short side platoon 1B option, but from both their words and actions that wasn't their plan. Everybody knows he has a better glove than Kirilloff. Rocco saying "the guy who plays better defense will play" was maybe a bit of motivation for Kirilloff, but there was no chance Kirilloff was magically going to be better than Santana defensively after spring so either Rocco was lying about that stance or Santana was always going to be an everyday guy. Like he has been.

But I do hope they're starting to get away from that now as they see they need more offense than he was ever going to be able to provide.

[Major League Ready]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The point of bringing up the other guys stinking is that none of them are hitting to their career norms. Your entire stance is that it doesn't make sense (I believe you even said it was absurd) to suggest Kepler would continue to struggle when his career norm is a 103 OPS+. If that's true, and I'm being absurd, then it'd also be true that none of the other guys who are still struggling well below their career norms would be struggling still. 

Nearly the entire Twins lineup is proving that it is absolutely not absurd to suggest Kepler would still be struggling. Because they're all still struggling! What are the odds of 8 guys hitting below the Mendoza line right now? Extremely low if they're not injured? Because that's what's happening. End of story. Kepler was awful all spring. He was awful to start the year. Most of the lineup was awful all spring. They were awful to start the year. And they're still awful now. It's pretty reasonable to say Kepler would've continued to be awful too, just like the majority of the team has continued to be awful.

No.  I said it's absurd to suggest he would continue to hit at an -56 OPS+.  Don't generalize what I wrote toy fit your narrative.

[umterp23]

So what happens and let's hope we have this scenario if players are playing well... Miranda has found his stroke and stays a .250+ hitter with occasional power.  Lewis comes back from injury, might be 6 weeks still but lets say it is faster. Miranda goes to 1st full time, Kiriloff goest to Left, Kepler stays in right.  Martin gets sent down but has shown he can handle back up duty? Who stays and who gets benched?

 

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Just because Farmer didn’t expect the “organization would pay him” with their salary contraction doesn’t mean he’s expensive. $6.5 million is not expensive when you have roughly 15 guys making the minimum. He’s the depth at 3B - SS - 2B, not just a short side of a platoon. With a fully healthy roster Farmer starts 80 games minimum.

What if they signed him for a frugal $1.5 million reduction to ‘23’s salary for $3.75 million - is that more tolerable? He isn’t hitting  - that’s the sole problem.

Whether he’s playing 3B - 2B - SS seems immaterial to me. If Lewis were playing, IMO, Farmer would play SS in Correa’s absence. Castro would be in the OF as was the plan coming into the season. That frees up, on current roster, Kirilloff to play 1B whenever Rocco sees fit.

I guess, if they think Santana’s a good option from the left side as “the every day guy” he would have started v. a right handed pitcher yesterday instead of right handed hitting Miranda……good bet anyway.

6.5 Million is extremely expensive when you are trimming 31 million off the payroll. 

Yes he is depth at 3B - SS - 2B. He is also 33 Years old and a career .656 OPS against Right Handers. While facing right handers 1318 times compared to 565 times against left handers over his career.  

When have we ever had a fully healthy roster?

With our current not fully healthy roster. Farmer is still a short side platoon. The Twins as a team have 492 PA's against right handers and 147 PA's vs left handers. Farmer has 12 PA's against Right Handers and 10 PA's against LH despite the two primary injuries (Lewis and Correa) playing the positions that you have him listed as depth. 

Yes... 3.75 million is more tolerable. 😄 

 

 

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

6.5 Million is extremely expensive when you are trimming 31 million off the payroll. 

Yes... 3.75 million is more tolerable. 😄 

Is this whole argument that the team would be better off if the Pohlads had put an additional $2.75M in their pockets?

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Is this whole argument that the team would be better off if the Pohlads had put an additional $2.75M in their pockets?

Not from me. That was just a quip in response to a question that was posed by someone who was probably just making a point and doesn't believe the question either. 

From me... I will argue that 6.5m for Farmer, 4m for Margot, 5.25m for Santana and 4m for DeSclafini adds up to 19.75m and that is money that could have kept Polanco on the roster plus leave 9 million dollars for another or player or... put that 9 million into the Pohlad pocket. 😄

[Riverbrian]

20 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

No.  I said it's absurd to suggest he would continue to hit at an -56 OPS+.  Don't generalize what I wrote toy fit your narrative.

I believe it is absurd to shove Eggs Benedict into your ears. 

I normally don't bring that up because nobody is doing that to my knowledge. 

[chpettit19]

49 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

So what happens and let's hope we have this scenario if players are playing well... Miranda has found his stroke and stays a .250+ hitter with occasional power.  Lewis comes back from injury, might be 6 weeks still but lets say it is faster. Miranda goes to 1st full time, Kiriloff goest to Left, Kepler stays in right.  Martin gets sent down but has shown he can handle back up duty? Who stays and who gets benched?

 

I'd hope Martin stays if he continues to produce, but he's certainly a realistic guess if the roster were to ever be fully healthy. They still don't have a DH and can rotate everyone through with Martin moving around the field, including taking the CF reps when Buxton DHs, if Martin continues to out perform Castro. I'd hope the move is to DFA Santana, but I'd guess it is probably Larnach or Martin who'd get the boot instead. Although, Castro still has an option available so he could draw the short straw potentially. 

[stringer bell]

Depending on which metrics are used, Farmer ranks as somewhere between average and well below average as a defensive shortstop. His hitting has been buttressed by excellent numbers against left handed pitching. He’s a three-position infielder who is good in the clubhouse. When the Twins shopped him this winter, I don’t think there was any interest at the salary he was projected to get. 
 

I speculated that the younger, more athletic Willi Castro should be slated as the preferable backup for Correa and apparently the club agrees. The problem is that neither player is hitting his weight. 
 

Jackson Holliday is struggling mightily for the Orioles, but hardly anyone is up in arms because almost every other O is mashing. 
 

Noted above, the Twins have nine below the Mendoza Line, with several of them more than one good game away from respectable stats. The team has been out homered 27-15 and if that trend continues they won’t win 70 games. 
 

Yes, the guys mentioned have not stepped up, but one could name another half-dozen players who have hurt the club as much as the guys named in the OP. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

51 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

So what happens and let's hope we have this scenario if players are playing well... Miranda has found his stroke and stays a .250+ hitter with occasional power.  Lewis comes back from injury, might be 6 weeks still but lets say it is faster. Miranda goes to 1st full time, Kiriloff goest to Left, Kepler stays in right.  Martin gets sent down but has shown he can handle back up duty? Who stays and who gets benched?

 

I hope you're right on Miranda and I'm starting to think you may be. I also want Martin to get some run. He's actually looked the part and I hope he gets at least another couple of weeks playing full time to see if he can be a .265/.350/.400 plus kind of hitter. If he can, his speed and defense makes him very valuable for this slow, plodding group. Here's how that shakes out to me:

Miranda - Full time 1B, occasional DH, plays almost every day.

Martin - 75% LF, 20% CF when Buxton sits or plays DH.

Kirilloff - Primary DH, in LF 2 days a week or so in place of Martin or when Martin plays CF, backup 1B. 

Santana - Traded or Backup 1B playing no more than 1-2 games a week, primarily defensive replacement. 

Margot - Traded or 5th OF playing RF or DH when facing LH starter. 

Camargo - AAA when Kepler comes back. 

Larnach and Castro - One goes to AAA when Correa comes back, one when Lewis comes back unless Margot, Farmer, or Santana is released or traded. 

My bias is to keep Martin in MLB over Larnach and play him over playing time for Santana or Margot. Injuries can and probably will change things but that's what I would do. Our only chance of turning this around is to get fresh blood in that performs while Correa, Jeffers, Miranda, Buxton, Kirilloff, and Julien all are at least average MLB hitters and at least 3 of them are solidly above average. Kepler could be one of those 3 but at this point he is a complete question mark. He could have an OPS+ of any where from 75 to 125 this year and may get traded in June. Those 6 guys are the key to us scoring enough to be competitive. 

Best batting order = Julien, Jeffers, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Buxton, Miranda, Kepler/Margot, Martin. When Vasquez plays, Jeffers becomes DH and either Kirilloff or Martin sits depending on starter. Santana, and either Castro or Farmer, which ever one is still on the team, only play as "day off" or injury reserves and hit in the bottom third when they do play, usually 8th. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

6.5 Million is extremely expensive when you are trimming 31 million off the payroll. 

Yes he is depth at 3B - SS - 2B. He is also 33 Years old and a career .656 OPS against Right Handers. While facing right handers 1318 times compared to 565 times against left handers over his career.  

When have we ever had a fully healthy roster?

With our current not fully healthy roster. Farmer is still a short side platoon. The Twins as a team have 492 PA's against right handers and 147 PA's vs left handers. Farmer has 12 PA's against Right Handers and 10 PA's against LH despite the two primary injuries (Lewis and Correa) playing the positions that you have him listed as depth. 

Yes... 3.75 million is more tolerable. 😄 

 

 

So you think $2.5M spread to Farmer (3.75 - 6.25) is somehow a number that moves the needle to make the Team better elsewhere? Don’t see it.

He was out a month last year after getting hit in the face………..still played in 120 games.

If you start as a Platoon guy & the team goes to a RH pitcher, you get PH for by Julien every time…….if you bat 7th-9th in the line-up & nobody hits, you get 3 AB’s max.

His AB’s through 17 games are 31 with 6 walks & on via error once. Not sure where you are getting the 12 & 10 PA data = 22 PA’s……. his total is 38. He’s played in 13 of 17 games as well.

Santana & Vazquez are the offensive disaster signings. $5.5M & $10M………but I firmly believe these guys aren’t overpaid, because you can’t pay them little enough to have value, offensively. They are a disaster - Vazquez not quite as bad.

Farmer plays 15-20 games at 3B with Lewis healthy. He plays 15-20 games at SS with Correa healthy. He starts 40 games as platoon 2B. Defensive replacement late, maybe 15 games. That’s 85 assuming the minimum.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I hope you're right on Miranda and I'm starting to think you may be. I also want Martin to get some run. He's actually looked the part and I hope he gets at least another couple of weeks playing full time to see if he can be a .265/.350/.400 plus kind of hitter. If he can, his speed and defense makes him very valuable for this slow, plodding group. Here's how that shakes out to me:

Miranda - Full time 1B, occasional DH, plays almost every day.

Martin - 75% LF, 20% CF when Buxton sits or plays DH.

Kirilloff - Primary DH, in LF 2 days a week or so in place of Martin or when Martin plays CF, backup 1B. 

Santana - Traded or Backup 1B playing no more than 1-2 games a week, primarily defensive replacement. 

Margot - Traded or 5th OF playing RF or DH when facing LH starter. 

Camargo - AAA when Kepler comes back. 

Larnach and Castro - One goes to AAA when Correa comes back, one when Lewis comes back unless Margot, Farmer, or Santana is released or traded. 

My bias is to keep Martin in MLB over Larnach and play him over playing time for Santana or Margot. Injuries can and probably will change things but that's what I would do. Our only chance of turning this around is to get fresh blood in that performs while Correa, Jeffers, Miranda, Buxton, Kirilloff, and Julien all are at least average MLB hitters and at least 3 of them are solidly above average. Kepler could be one of those 3 but at this point he is a complete question mark. He could have an OPS+ of any where from 75 to 125 this year and may get traded in June. Those 6 guys are the key to us scoring enough to be competitive. 

Best batting order = Julien, Jeffers, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Buxton, Miranda, Kepler/Margot, Martin. When Vasquez plays, Jeffers becomes DH and either Kirilloff or Martin sits depending on starter. Santana, and either Castro or Farmer, which ever one is still on the team, only play as "day off" or injury reserves and hit in the bottom third when they do play, usually 8th. 

Julien at 2nd, Miranda at 1st, the most massive hole in defense possible in the major league no offense could make up for.

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

So you think $2.5M spread to Farmer (3.75 - 6.25) is somehow a number that moves the needle to make the Team better elsewhere? Don’t see it.

He was out a month last year after getting hit in the face………..still played in 120 games.

If you start as a Platoon guy & the team goes to a RH pitcher, you get PH for by Julien every time…….if you bat 7th-9th in the line-up & nobody hits, you get 3 AB’s max.

His AB’s through 17 games are 31 with 6 walks & on via error once. Not sure where you are getting the 12 & 10 PA data = 22 PA’s……. his total is 38. He’s played in 13 of 17 games as well.

Santana & Vazquez are the offensive disaster signings. $5.5M & $10M………but I firmly believe these guys aren’t overpaid, because you can’t pay them little enough to have value, offensively. They are a disaster - Vazquez not quite as bad.

Farmer plays 15-20 games at 3B with Lewis healthy. He plays 15-20 games at SS with Correa healthy. He starts 40 games as platoon 2B. Defensive replacement late, maybe 15 games. That’s 85 assuming the minimum.

You are right about the 10-12 PA. I got those numbers from MLB.com. His career numbers that I quote as well came from MLB.com. 

I went back and checked and they still have 10-12 PA against left and right. But when I don't filter it says 38 PA. 

Something is off on the website unless he had 16 PA's against someone with no arms. 🤔 

Fangraphs has 24 PA's against RH and 14 Against LH. I'll go with Fangraphs. 

Anyway... I like Farmer. He did a nice job for us last year but 6.5 million is expensive on a team that cut 31 million for a guy who plays 80 games when everyone is healthy.  

You keep saying "if healthy". I keep saying... When does that ever happen? 

And... let me be very very very clear.

"So you think $2.5M spread to Farmer (3.75 - 6.25) is somehow a number that moves the needle to make the Team better elsewhere? Don’t see it". 

You were the one who floated this scenario in your discussion with Chia Pet. 

What if they signed him for a frugal $1.5 million reduction to ‘23’s salary for $3.75 million - is that more tolerable? He isn’t hitting  - that’s the sole problem.

I didn't take your question seriously when you typed it but I responded to it with a laughing emoji as a light hearted way to end my post. 

Yes... 3.75 million is more tolerable. 😄 

If you continue down your invented path by dragging this point along like your talking with an idiot. You'll go into the same box that Major League Ready currently occupies. 

[laloesch]

6 hours ago, Karbo said:

platoon AK and Miranda maybe?

I know I'm grasping at straws here, but when Brooks Lee gets healthy and assuming he produces, could he be legit platoon infield option (assuming the Twins are even willing to call him up)?

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd hope Martin stays if he continues to produce, but he's certainly a realistic guess if the roster were to ever be fully healthy. They still don't have a DH and can rotate everyone through with Martin moving around the field, including taking the CF reps when Buxton DHs, if Martin continues to out perform Castro. I'd hope the move is to DFA Santana, but I'd guess it is probably Larnach or Martin who'd get the boot instead. Although, Castro still has an option available so he could draw the short straw potentially. 

If the other's continue to hit as poorly as they've done thus far I doubt Martin gets sent down even for the Twins.  They have what 7 or 8 players hitting less than .200, they literally can't afford to send him down without completely giving up on the season.

[laloesch]

4 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

I sure wouldn't mind running Simeon Woods Richardson back out there either.  He looked fantastic in his last start.  It seems like a crime to send him back after doing that while other guys continue to flounder.

I wouldn't mind seeing more of SWR if he does what he did last outing.  Up until that start I was highly skeptical of how it would translate to the majors because much of his minor league numbers were nothing short of mediocre at best.  more starts and more analysis is needed, but he is the near term option with Festa further off.

[Riverbrian]

38 minutes ago, laloesch said:

I know I'm grasping at straws here, but when Brooks Lee gets healthy and assuming he produces, could he be legit platoon infield option (assuming the Twins are even willing to call him up)?

If... When... Brooks gets the call. 

I will bang my head against my desk if he is platooned. 

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, Karbo said:

platoon AK and Miranda maybe?

Brandon Belt is still unemployed

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'll probably date myself, but will politely disagree on this.  SS is the utmost defensive need on every team (with catcher a close second).  There always used to be light hitting shortstops (Ozzie Smith, Mark Belanger, Luis Aparicio, Omar Vizquel, etc) over the years on all teams and they made up for it in other areas.  Once A-Rod, Jeter and Ripken came along with more impact to the lineup it seems that that is now a requirement that each team MUST have an exceptional hitting shortstop.  Sure, that'd be nice (as in CC4), but IMO not a luxury that every team in the league MUST have.  I say, in regards to SS, defense first and then hitting is icing on the cake.  We can agree to disagree here.

We can agree that there has been an evolution to the position, but even the best of those 60’s-80’s teams would lose 90 games a year now. 
 

The best athletes have always played SS, but the best athletes now hit the cover off the ball too.

[USAFChief]

23 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

We can agree that it here has been an evolution to the position, but even the best of those 60’s-80’s teams would lose 90 games a year now. 
 

The best athletes have always played SS, but the best athletes now hit the cover off the ball too.

I don't think there's been an "evolution" at SS. 

The ability to handle SS defensively has always been the minimum bar, and there aren't a lot of humans capable. From there, SS's who can hit well were, and are, hard to find.

But there's always been a few. Honus Wagner, Joe Cronin, Lou Boudreau, Ernoe Banks, Luke Appling, Arky Vaughn, just to name a few. 

There's just never been very many, and there still aren't. 

Gonna have to disagree with this "today's teams are so much better" theory as well. The Big Red Machine would be The Big Red Machine today.

 

 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If... When... Brooks gets the call. 

I will bang my head against my desk if he is platooned. 

He has not shown he can hit any Major League pitching at a level over the Mendoza line.

Wishful thinking feels good that rarely more.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

He has not shown he can hit any Major League pitching at a level over the Mendoza line.

Wishful thinking feels good that rarely more.

I just checked his stats. You are right. He hasn't hit over the Mendoza line at the MLB Level. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I don't think there's been an "evolution" at SS. 

The ability to handle SS defensively has always been the minimum bar, and there aren't a lot of humans capable. From there, SS's who can hit well were, and are, hard to find.

But there's always been a few. Honus Wagner, Joe Cronin, Lou Boudreau, Ernoe Banks, Luke Appling, Arky Vaughn, just to name a few. 

There's just never been very many, and there still aren't. 

Gonna have to disagree with this "today's teams are so much better" theory as well. The Big Red Machine would be The Big Red Machine today.

 

 

For all we know Tony Perez could handle a nasty 89 MPH slider as well as Miguel Sano. Hitters are seeing exponentially tougher pitches than Pete Rose and the gang did. Most likely, some if not all of those hitters would have struggled mightily to translate that success.

Players have gotten stronger, faster and quicker in all sports. I'm sure Ozzie Smith could have handled SS defensively today, but sorry, Jorge Polanco would have likely been a perfectly adequate defensive shortstop in 1985 and his superior bat would put him in consideration as one of the best in the game. 1980s-90s sports are what I cut my teeth on, but I'm more than willing to admit that players have evolved since then.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

For all we know Tony Perez could handle a nasty 89 MPH slider as well as Miguel Sano. Hitters are seeing exponentially tougher pitches than Pete Rose and the gang did. Most likely, some if not all of those hitters would have struggled mightily to translate that success.

Players have gotten stronger, faster and quicker in all sports. I'm sure Ozzie Smith could have handled SS defensively today, but sorry, Jorge Polanco would have likely been a perfectly adequate defensive shortstop in 1985 and his superior bat would put him in consideration as one of the best in the game. 1980s-90s sports are what I cut my teeth on, but I'm more than willing to admit that players have evolved since then.

In your opinion - rationalizing - but an opinion.

https://www.thesportster.com/baseball/top-15-pitchers-with-the-hardest-fastballs-of-all-time/

This is from a pitching discussion on another forum:

Atley Donald and Van Lingle Mungo were early hard-throwers that were actually measured. Even though both were clocked rather crudely, their measurements would extrapolate to over 100 mph on a modern radar gun. A modern radar gun measures the pitch either out of the hand or ten feet away from the pitcher, depending on the gun...most measurements all the way up to the 1980's would measure a pitcher about 60 feet from his hand (although I believe Walter Johnson was clocked 25 or 30 feet away from his hand).

https://www.baseball-fever.com/forum/general-baseball/history-of-the-game/48970-speed-of-old-time-pitchers