Will the Twins Generate Enough Power at First Base in 2024?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Since 2019, the Twins have hit the fourth-most home runs in baseball, despite generating minimal power from first base. Will 2024 see another power outage from the position, or will the team's expected positional duo surprise us with the position's customary pop?

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Twins' primary first baseman was technically Joey Gallo. In 332 plate appearances, Gallo hit .177/.301/.440, swatting 21 home runs and cobbling together an above-average 104 wRC+. However, Gallo's numbers were inflated by a formidable April, wherein he hit .226/.349/.717 with seven home runs and a 182 wRC+ over 63 plate appearances. From May 1 to his final game as a member of the Twins on Sept. 5, Gallo was practically unusable, striking out 44.9% of the time and generating a subpar 85 wRC+. 

Gallo has since joined the Washington Nationals, striking out in over half his 27 plate appearances this spring. In response, the Twins have elected to undergo a course correction, signing the contact-skilled Carlos Santana to a one-year, $5.25-million contract. Will the team regret sacrificing power at first base and suffer an unwanted power outage from a short-sighted overcompensation? First, let's look at how the organization has approached the position and the results it has produced since Rocco Baldelli took over as manager in 2019. 

Over the last five years, the Minnesota Twins have hit 1,037 home runs, placing them fourth in that period behind only the Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers. Considering the 2019 club hit the most home runs in a season with 307 (now tied with the 2023 Braves), their being toward the top of home run leaderboards shouldn't be a surprise. Yet, how they accomplished this feat has been unorthodox. In the past four seasons, the Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers have had power-hitting first basemen serve as key cogs in the middle of their power-hitting lineups. Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson hit 170 home runs for Atlanta, Luke Voit and Anthony Rizzo hit 106 home runs for New York, and the trio of Freeman, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger hit 278 home runs for Los Angeles. Since 2019, the Twins' first basemen with the most home runs are C.J. Cron, with 25 in 2019, and Alex Kirilloff, with 22 from 2021 through 2023. So, where are the home runs coming from?

Since Baldelli took over, the Twins have hit an abundance of long balls from traditionally power-constrained positions. Right fielder Max Kepler leads the team with 97 home runs since 2019. Middle infielder Jorge Polanco is second with 89, and center fielder Byron Buxton is third with 87. With Kepler and Buxton expected to be primary offensive contributors for the team in 2024 and the powerful, left-handed hitting Edouard Julien replacing the departed Polanco at second base, the Twins are expected to produce excess power from those three positions again.

FanGraphs's STEAMER projects the triumvirate of Kepler, Buxton, and Julien to hit a combined 67 home runs in 2024. Third baseman Royce Lewis is expected to hit 28, and shortstop Carlos Correa is projected to hit 21. That said, the team's primary first baseman, Santana, is expected to hit only 15 home runs over 448 plate appearances. Santana hit 19 home runs each year in 2021 and 2022, and 23 home runs last season--his highest single-season total since hitting 34 with Cleveland in 2019. Projecting Santana to hit just 15 home runs feels like a conservative estimate of his capabilities. That said, other reputable projection systems take similar stances on the switch-hitting 37-year-old: 

• FanGraphs's ZiPS: 17 home runs over 522 plate appearances
• FanGraphs's THE BAT X: 14 home runs over 486 plate appearances
• Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA: 14 home runs over 441 plate appearances

ZiPS has the most favorable projections for "El Oso," predicting he will slug 17 dingers. Nor is Santana the only Twins first baseman expected to have modest power production in 2024. STEAMER projects backup first baseman and expected primary designated hitter Kirilloff to hit just 12 home runs over 383 plate appearances this upcoming season. As with Santana, other reputable projection systems follow suit:

• ZiPS: 12 home runs over 383 plate appearances
• THE BAT X: 10 home runs over 378 plate appearances
• PECOTA: 10 home runs over 335 plate appearances

On average, Santana and Kirilloff are projected to hit a combined 25-27 home runs next season. The Braves' primary first baseman (Olson) is projected to hit 39 home runs between the three projection systems, the Dodgers' (Freeman) is expected to hit 26, and the Yankees' (Rizzo) is projected to hit 21. Rizzo's platoon mate, DJ LeMahieu, is expected to notch 12 to complement the veteran lefty. If the Twins really do get fewer than 30 total bombs from the players who will take the majority of the playing time at first base and DH, it's hard not to see that as a shortfall.

After a one-year experiment with the strikeout-prone Gallo, the Twins appear set to rely on generating power from traditionally unconventional positions. Their center fielder, third baseman, and right fielder are projected to hit the most home runs in 2024, and neither of their first basemen are likely to reach 20. That said, the organization is making a concerted effort to cut back on strikeouts after claiming the MLB record for punchouts in a season, with 1,654. Signing Santana, trading for fellow strikeout-resistant hitter Manuel Margot, and expecting a dip in strikeout percentage (K%) from primary role players Kyle Farmer, Christian Vázquez, Willi Castro, and Kirilloff and starters Buxton, Correa, Julien, and Lewis, the Twins are looking to deviate from the three-true-outcome offense they often were last season. Whether that approach is successful depends on Santana and Kirilloff's ability to hit for contact and let other positions generate power.

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[saviking]

I thought they signed Santana for his OBP ans are going to bat him lead off 😄

[John Belinski]

7 minutes ago, saviking said:

I thought they signed Santana for his OBP ans are going to bat him lead off 😄

It just doesn't make sense to have him in lead off spot, but many of Rocco's moves do not make sense.

[MinnInPa]

1B will be fine..as long as the K machine Gallo is off team this offense will improve. put the ball in play boys..and make this game easier to watch. constant K's has ruined MLB

[hitterscount]

Not everyone is built to be a power hitter. Not every position needs to be or should be expected to producing HR's. Catchers, middle infielders, CF, more important to be sound defensively and make contact and get on base.

I hope the days of sound fundamental baseball are not gone. Making contact and hitting for average, shortening your swing with two strikes, sacrifices and advancing runners into scoring position, getting runners home when in scoring position, especially with runners on third with less than two outs. 

Homeruns are great, but the massive number of strikeouts last year was unwatchable at times.   

[Old Twins Cap]

If you think of the Twins infield, with Lewis, Correa, Julien and Santana/Kiriloff, with Lee on the outside looking in, it's inevitable that something needs to happen at 1B long-term.

My bet:  Kiriloff gets traded.  Santana hangs in there this year playing 1B and DH.

The best fielding 2B between Lee and Julien gets the nod at the keystone and the other one gets 1B.  Likely Julien. 

Long term, as he loses range, Correa plays 3B and DH's.  At that point it's a cage match between Lewis and Lee for SS.  Likely Lee wins it.

Kind of out there, but the Twins have 3 fully capable SS, plus Castro right now.  Someone has to play 1B.

 

 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, John Belinski said:

It just doesn't make sense to have him in lead off spot, but many of Rocco's moves do not make sense.

Santana works counts and gets on base, which makes him a reasonable choice to lead off when Julien isn't in the lineup. When Julien is playing, I would expect him to lead off as he gets on base a ton and has shown an affinity for steals in the minors that will likely be deployed more this season.

[Parfigliano]

All those HR's and they won 3 playoff games.

[sweetmusicviola16]

We best hope that above average production continues from Lewis, Julien, etc, since we've decided that 1B is now a glove first position.  I would be fine with Santana getting the 40-45 starts against LHP and being a late inning defensive sub. He should not be everyday at this point in his career.

[Otaknam]

I hope you are right that the Twins are seeking more contact and willing to sacrifice some home runs if they have fewer strikeouts. Watching hitter after hitter flailing away in the playoffs rendered it almost unwatchable. It is the opposite of the Tom Kelly philosophy of focusing on hitting line drives, not home runs. That especially hurt future HOF David Ortiz and led to him leaving the team. We know how that turned out. You need on base guys like Arraez and hopefully Austin Martin. Somewhere in between seems like a good compromise. 

[mrcharlie]

I see no reason to be concerned.  If indeed we see a drop off in HR production of previous years (#4 in MLB) I believe we still are among the league leaders... #8-10.

Twins have other more pressing issues.

[jmlease1]

It's not really an issue if you have less power at 1B if you're generating it in other areas, so long as you're not just handing out tons of ABs to players that are poor offensive contributors as a whole. If Correa is back to his usual self, with Buxton and Jeffers also generating real power production then it doesn't matter as much if 1B isn't at league average SLG, so long as you're getting other contributions.

It'll be interesting to see if Santana can SLG .400 or better this season; if he does I think we'll be just fine with our production from 1B between him and Kirilloff and maybe a little of Julien or possibly Farmer. If he's hovering around the Mendoza Line for his BA and SLG closer to .350 then his overall production isn't going to be good enough for him to be getting starting playing time.

I do think this is a really deep lineup with a lot of players who have high ceilings and not too many low floors. They should score a lot of runs, and there's better balance this year than last, presuming average levels of health.

[Doctor Gast]

Up the middle positions (CF, SS, C & 2B) are glove 1st positions. 1B is a bat 1st position we are getting a bit mixed up here. I advocated Julien at 1B since the beginning of '23, Julien at 1B would have helped correct the shortage at 1B. 2Bmen need to have range & turn a smooth DP. Julien has below average range plus a healthy Julien & recuperating Polanco ranked 29 out of 30 in DPs. With Julien at 1B we didn't need Santana. 

I'm not a big HR guy, I'd be fine with 9 Arraez-type bats in the line-up.

[joefish]

I did my own independent survey.  

The concensus was that it's nothing to worry about. No sweat. LOOK for something else to fret about. Keep the line moving. Home runs are rally enders.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Up the middle positions (CF, SS, C & 2B) are glove 1st positions. 1B is a bat 1st position we are getting a bit mixed up here. I advocated Julien at 1B since the beginning of '23, Julien at 1B would have helped correct the shortage at 1B. 2Bmen need to have range & turn a smooth DP. Julien has below average range plus a healthy Julien & recuperating Polanco ranked 29 out of 30 in DPs. With Julien at 1B we didn't need Santana. 

I'm not a big HR guy, I'd be fine with 9 Arraez-type bats in the line-up.

I remember some St.Louis Cardinal teams from the early to mid eighties that were close to that. '85 they had Jack Clark who hit HR's. '82 they had George Hendrick who could. But they won a lot of games with pitching, defense, getting on base, speed and using Busch Stadium to their advantage. They were almost always last or near the bottom in HR's. But they were fun to watch. I don't enjoy watching a team strikeout 13 times in a game, even if they did hit 4 HR's.

[DocBauer]

Are the Twins adopting an unusual approach of power at positions not known for it? They've had the likes of Puckett and Hunter in CF as powerful performers, then Buxton, going back 30 plus years. They've had the powerful and dangerous Knoblauch and Dozier at 2B at different times. They've also played lower power platoons at 3B previously, and guys like Punto there. Doug Mientkiewicz was no slugger at 1B for a few years.  In fact, over the past few decades, many of the best athletes and producers on teams have been CF, SS, and even 2B. The game has changed.

In general, and for the Twins in particular, it's about building the best, most productive team you can, regardless of which position(s) gives you power and RBI and which might provide more speed or top of the order OB ability.

At 1B for 2024, how do we count power and production if Kirilloff gets half his AB, theoretically, as a DH? Personally, I believe he stokes 20+ HR and over 30 Dbls as long as he's healthy. I'm betting he hits around the .270-.280 range with a respectable OB%. I'll take that all day long. Regardless of where he plays, and how much, I expect him to probably outproduce Santana. And there's even a chance Julien gets some time at 1B this season. So again, how do we measure production at 1B? By individual numbers, or the numbers only produced from the spot itself?

There's a lot of potential offensively for this team, at every spot, and multiple players who can provide it. But 1B doesn't appear to be similar to SS, for instance, where 1 guy should be there most days. So I guess I'm more focused on playing the best, most productive guys I can, and plugging them in to the lineup every day I can. I have doubts about Santana, but believe he's at least capable of being a nice part of the 1B equation. What I'm focused on is the most production possible out of the guys on the roster and how the offense performs as a whole. 

[Brandon]

The Twins led the AL in HRs last season.  I think they tied for the lead but whatever.  They lost Gallo and Taylor and traded Polanco from their totals and added Margot and Santana.  The Twins should still hit over 200 HRs as a team and be a top 5 HR hitting team in the AL.  

[stringer bell]

On 3/20/2024 at 9:22 AM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I would be fine with Santana getting the 40-45 starts against LHP and being a late inning defensive sub. He should not be everyday at this point in his career.

Yes, he’ll start every time against left handed pitching and to start the season, he’ll hit lead off against lefties. It appears he’ll get “a lot” of starts vs. right handers as well. I hope it is less than half the time against righties but that is tbd.