What’s the Biggest Question Facing the Back of the Rotation for 2024?

[Cody Christie]

The back of the Twins rotation looks very different than it did to start the 2023 campaign. With Opening Day on the horizon, what’s the biggest question facing this group?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Rotational depth is critical for any contending team because it takes more than five starters to complete a 162-game season. Last season, the Twins had ten pitchers make at least one start, and the club used 14 starters during an injury-plagued 2022 campaign. Minnesota started last year with a five-person rotation that included Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda. By the end of April, Mahle was on the injured list before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Maeda was returning from Tommy John surgery, which limited his usage throughout the season. 

For the second consecutive season, the biggest question facing the back of the Twins rotation is, “How healthy are these arms?” 

Chris Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2023 season and pitched out of the bullpen for the stretch run. Minnesota expects Paddack to be able to handle a return to the rotation this season, but there can be innings limitations for a player returning from this type of surgery. Last season, Maeda was in a similar recovery spot to Paddack and was limited to just over 100 innings pitched. Paddack has never thrown over 141 innings in a professional season, likely a trend that will continue in 2024. 

Paddack built up to over 50 pitches in his March 5th start while also seeing increased velocity on his newly developed slider. His approach when ahead in the count has been a focus for him this spring. Keeping opposing batters off balance with a changeup and slider should help him to miss more bats and be more effective. 

"Two-strike execution is one of his goals [and] something we want him thinking about every time he takes the mound," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. "He's a really good strike-thrower, and he gets into a lot of two-strike counts. It's what he does then [that matters]. His best off-speed pitch for much of his career has been his changeup, so now it's about getting breaking balls to get swings and misses. He doesn't have to be in the zone with two strikes, he knows that, he's working on it."

Paddack’s return from injury isn’t the only health concern for the team’s projected Opening Day rotation. Anthony DeSclafani missed time last season with a flexor forearm strain, and the Twins shut him down earlier this spring after he experienced soreness in his right elbow. This type of soreness can be expected, according to team trainer Nick Paparesta. In 2023, DeSclafani was limited to 19 appearances (99 2/3 innings) with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The Twins hope he can return to his 2021 performance when he combined for a 3.17 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 167 2/3 innings. 

The Twins remain confident that DeSclafani will be able to make starts for the team early in the season. Minnesota won’t need a fifth starter for the first week and half of the season, so he can begin the year on the injured list before joining the rotation. 

“I’m still optimistic about him pitching early in the year for us, but we’re going to take the time to do it the right way,” Baldelli said. “We’re going to make sure we take care of him, and then we ramp him. It’s clearly not going to be an ultra-aggressive ramp-up. It’s going to be a ramp-up that we know we have to take a little bit of time each step of the way and do it the right way because we’re doing this for the long haul, not just to try to get him back out there on the mound. But again, I’m optimistic.”

When injuries impact the rotation, the Twins have depth waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Louie Varland currently sits in the sixth spot on the depth chart and will be the first player called up from Triple-A. Other pitchers expected to pitch at St. Paul this season include some of the team’s top pitching prospects like David Festa, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Brent Headrick, and Marco Raya. The Twins would like to wait until further into the season to dig into their pitching depth, but injuries might force a change in the season's early weeks. 

What are your expectations for the back end of the rotation? How many innings will Paddack and DeSclafani pitch for the Twins in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Doctor Gast]

I'd like to limit both Paddack & Varland's innings, Maybe even have them piggyback to begin the season.

[chpettit19]

It's a little misleading to say the Twins had 10 people make at least 1 start. 2 of those starts were Pagan for 1 inning and De Leon for 2. The Twins used 8 real starters last year while having an unbelievably healthy rotation that saw 841 of their 895 innings (94%) filled by just 6 guys. While it'd be great if they can have that kind of health again, it's not very likely. I really hope a few of SWR, Headrick, Festa, and the rest of those AAA arms are ready.

[Dave The Dastardly]

What about the Dobber?

[Tjwalsh65]

36 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

What about the Dobber?

You never know stranger things have happened.

 

[mnfireman]

"What are your expectations for the back end of the rotation? How many innings will Paddack and DeSclafani pitch for the Twins in 2024?"

I don't think DeSclafini throws a pitch in 2024, unfortunately.

As for Paddack, Tommy John threw 209 innings in his first season back from the surgery named after him...😉

[Major League Ready]

Health.  Two years of healthy starters in a row is a lot to ask.  If/when we need someone, I was encouraged by what we have seen from Festa and SWR this spring.  I think the new arm slot is going to improve his chances of being a ML pitcher.  The question is can he maintain velocity and how much time will he need to grove that delivery.  Festa's stuff looked really good.  The question in his case is can he gain the consistency in command needed at the ML level.  

[Shaitan]

It would be great if the top 7 can make it work.

But sometimes you catch lighting in a bottle or get lucky before the league figures it out when running on spare parts (see Albers, Andrew).

I'd love 8 locks here, but of all the things to worry about with a roster I think they're okay for their top 7. In part because they've counter weighted their bullpen this year.

[mikelink45]

We need a young arm to move quickly and surprise us.  After Varland the cupboard does not look promising for this year. 

[TwinsDr2021]

15 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd like to limit both Paddack & Varland's innings, Maybe even have them piggyback to begin the season.

why are you limiting Varland? He is 26 and has pitched 103, 152, and 149 the last three years? Shouldn't be expected where he is pitching he goes 150+ again?

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

why are you limiting Varland? He is 26 and has pitched 103, 152, and 149 the last three years? Shouldn't be expected where he is pitching he goes 150+ again?

He's still inexperienced in MLB, So I'd like to take him slow to begin with. I know some differ but IMO MLB innings are more strenuous than minor league innings, especially to begin with..

[old nurse]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

It's a little misleading to say the Twins had 10 people make at least 1 start. 2 of those starts were Pagan for 1 inning and De Leon for 2. The Twins used 8 real starters last year while having an unbelievably healthy rotation that saw 841 of their 895 innings (94%) filled by just 6 guys. While it'd be great if they can have that kind of health again, it's not very likely. I really hope a few of SWR, Headrick, Festa, and the rest of those AAA arms are ready.

2 pitchers coming back from surgery, one getting it is the modern version of a health staff. 

[Riverbrian]

I know what you mean by "back of the rotation".

However... I want to stress that a rotation is a rotation. If the chosen 5 remains healthy (they won't)... that will be an equal 32 starts for all of them... each start is going to be important to compete and allow your offense and defense and bullpen to win a game for you and the workload is shared.

You can label Lopez as front end of the rotation but he isn't just going to matchup against Corbin Burnes types every time he starts. You can label Paddack as back end of the rotation but he isn't going to matchup against Cole Irvin types every time he starts. Lopez will face off against Burnes and Irvin types and the same goes for Paddack. Healthy starters are going to pitch the majority of innings available during the course of a 162 game season. All 5 slots in the rotation are equally important. 

In regards to that... the biggest question facing our rotation will be the replacements coming up from the minors. Can we get a surprise boost from the young arms in the system much like we got from the offense last year. Julien and Wallner saved our season last year when Correa and Buxton took a nose dive. Can our young starters do that when called upon. 

I know what you mean by "back of the rotation". I won't label them as such.  

And I'll let others label our starters with a one and a two or a three. 

  

 

[Major League Ready]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I know what you mean by "back of the rotation".

However... I want to stress that a rotation is a rotation. If the chosen 5 remains healthy (they won't)... that will be an equal 32 starts for all of them... each start is going to be important to compete and allow your offense and defense and bullpen to win a game for you and the workload is shared.

You can label Lopez as front end of the rotation but he isn't just going to matchup against Corbin Burnes types every time he starts. You can label Paddack as back end of the rotation but he isn't going to matchup against Cole Irvin types every time he starts. Lopez will face off against Burnes and Irvin types and the same goes for Paddack. Healthy starters are going to pitch the majority of innings available during the course of a 162 game season. All 5 slots in the rotation are equally important. 

In regards to that... the biggest question facing our rotation will be the replacements coming up from the minors. Can we get a surprise boost from the young arms in the system much like we got from the offense last year. Julien and Wallner saved our season last year when Correa and Buxton took a nose dive. Can our young starters do that when called upon. 

I know what you mean by "back of the rotation". I won't label them as such.  

And I'll let others label our starters with a one and a two or a three. 

  

 

Do you think the list of potential contributors goes beyond Festa, SWR, and Canterino?  Could we be surprised by a surge to the top by Raya or Culpepper?  Is Pierson Ohl a dark horse with his plus command?  These are the questions I ask myself.  We can add will DeSclafani be of any value this year to the list of questions.

[Major League Ready]

32 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

What's the status of Connor Priellipp?  I know he had arm trouble but he was highly touted coming out of college and I got the impression that he could move up the ladder fast.  Could he possibly help later on in the season?

He had surgery for an internal brace last July so contributing this year is doubtful.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

He's still inexperienced in MLB, So I'd like to take him slow to begin with. I know some differ but IMO MLB innings are more strenuous than minor league innings, especially to begin with..

I get that but really what you are saying is you want the younger more inexperienced guys pitching in the bigs to give the older (26) more experienced guy less innings. IMO you give you best pitchers the most innings, with Paddack I get limiting him coming off injury.

[nicksaviking]

I think Paddock is going to be better than expected. 

As for the internal options, I really wish they would have pushed Raya's innings closer to 100 last year. He's the one that I think has a chance to come in here and be an actual top of the rotation arm.

[Doctor Gast]

15 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I get that but really what you are saying is you want the younger more inexperienced guys pitching in the bigs to give the older (26) more experienced guy less innings. IMO you give you best pitchers the most innings, with Paddack I get limiting him coming off injury.

That's not what I'm saying. Although Varland is 26 he doesn't have a lot of MLB innings at SP. Even if we conserve Varland in the beginning, Being conserved, he could still pitch around 150 innings.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Do you think the list of potential contributors goes beyond Festa, SWR, and Canterino?  Could we be surprised by a surge to the top by Raya or Culpepper?  Is Pierson Ohl a dark horse with his plus command?  These are the questions I ask myself.  We can add will DeSclafani be of any value this year to the list of questions.

I can only answer that question in a very broad sense. I read scouting reports and articles but I don't rely upon them because those things are based upon the past. This question has everything to do with development and the result of development isn't about the past... it's about who's ready now and who's ready in the future near and far.  

All I can do is express my faith in the pitching pipeline spitting out major league capable pitchers and keep spitting them out.

Ultimately what I will judge the front office on is development when it is all said and done. 

The Twins need to be like Cleveland in regards to pitching. They need to be not reliant upon the signing of a Blake Snell because they produce Blake Snell. Cleveland keeps a pretty nice pitching staff year after year and they don't sign Blake Snell and they typically don't sign Dylan Bundy either. Dylan Bundy types just plugs that pipeline, while costing money while producing below average results.   

So to answer the question, I don't know if Festa, SWR or Canterino will rise up and show themselves like Bailey Ober did. I don't know which one specifically all or none but out of the possible names... someone better rise up and show themselves because farm production is the only way this franchise can compete year after year. I have faith that someone or someones will rise up because I think the pipeline is starting to bare fruit. 

If no one rises up this year... it will force us into the bargain basement bin to fill out the rotation next year. The farm is the key to our happiness.