Minnesota Twins 2024 Spring Training Storylines: Louie Varland's Present and Future

[Cody Schoenmann]

At the beginning of the offseason, there was debate over whether Minnesota Twins pitcher Louie Varland would be a starter or reliever in 2024. The Twins' acquisitions of a surplus of relievers has revealed the 26-year-old's expected role for this season. Can he thrive as a starter in his third season in MLB?

Image courtesy of © Reid Glenn / USA TODAY NETWORK

In 10 games as a starting pitcher last season, Louie Varland posted a 5.30 ERA and a 5.49 FIP. He struck out 54 batters and walked 16 over 241 total batters faced and 56 innings pitched. Despite posting nominally solid peripheral stats, the then-25-year-old's sophomore season ended prematurely. Varland's Achilles' heel as a starter was his inability to suppress home runs, evidenced by a 20.6% home run rate on fly balls over his 10 starts. Varland's tendency to allow the long ball, particularly on his four-seam fastball, led to a demotion to Triple-A St. Paul on June 18, after giving up five home runs over a string of three poor starts. 

After two and a half months away from the team, Varland returned to the big leagues as a reliever in September. In his return, the Concordia-St. Paul product pitched three innings, striking out two batters and walking one over 11 batters faced. Over the season's final month, Varland's strikeouts per nine jumped to 12.8, while sporting an above-average 0.8 walks per nine frames. Varland left 100 percent of inherited runners on base. In his seven appearances as a reliever, Varland gave up only two home runs, both in a game against the New York Mets on September 9. 

Varland's exceptional performance as a reliever was fueled by an increase in the velocity of his four-seam fastball and the refining of his secondary pitches, highlighted by a cutter in the low 90s. Varland's slider and changeup remained average as a reliever, but the implementation of his cutter assisted the now 26-year-old in forming a functional four-pitch mix that bodes well for starting. Varland recorded only two outs against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round, meaning little can be gleaned from his postseason experience. Regardless, with the postseason in the past and veterans Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle departing the organization this offseason, Varland looks to rejoin the starting rotation mix. 

At the beginning of the offseason, Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar were the four relievers guaranteed a spot in the Twins' 2024 bullpen. Uncertainty surrounded the last four spots in the bullpen which caused speculation that Varland (coming off a dominant month-long performance) could become a vital member of the team's bullpen mix in 2024.

Quickly, the hands of those flaming the fire of Varland becoming a fixture in the 'pen were singed as the organization signed, claimed, or traded for relievers Josh Staumont, Ryan Jensen, Justin Topa, Daniel Duarte, Zack Weiss, Jay Jackson, and Steven Okert. 40-man roster spot inhabitants Staumont, Topa, Weiss, Jackson, Okert, and the returning Kody Funderburk and Jorge Alcalá will compete for the team's final bullpen spot, making clear Varland's role with the 2024 team. 

When pitchers and catchers reported to Fort Myers earlier this month, Varland was slated to compete with the recently acquired Anthony DeSclafani for the team's fifth rotation spot. In this circumstance, "compete" is a misnomer as the writing is on the wall for how Varland's 2024 campaign will begin. Varland has two minor-league options, and DeSclafani (a nine-year veteran) has none. Barring injury, the Twins Opening Day starting rotation will consist of Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and DeSclafani. With all five pitchers undergoing recent significant health or performance concerns, Varland could quickly join the team's starting rotation.

In his first spring training appearance (Saturday), Varland topped out at 98.3 MPH on his four-seam fastball with an average of 95.7 MPH. The Twins' young hurler averaged 95.3 MPH on his fastball last season, so a 0.4 MPH uptick is minimal. Still, showing a marginal increase in average four-seam fastball velocity in late February is nothing to scoff at and should be a vehicle for increased optimism around the 26-year-old's upcoming season. Varland also showcased his cutter and sinker in the game, throwing them a combined 44 percent of the time. Despite decreasing velocity from last season on his secondary hard pitches, Varland's cutter and sinker had more vertical break, a trait the Twins pitching staff values highly. Expect Varland to use his fastball, cutter, and sinker high in the zone and often against either-handed hitters, with his changeup and slider working as glove and arm-side complements, respectively. 

At the beginning of the offseason, there was debate about whether Varland would be a starter or reliever for the Twins in 2024. Though both sides had merit in their arguments, the Twins acquiring a surplus of relievers has made it evident that the hard-throwing right-hander will begin the season as a starter. The team has sufficient veteran depth in the back-of-the-rotation in veterans Paddack and DeSclafani. Varland is presumably better than the aforementioned duo. Yet, having two minor league options, he will presumptively begin this season in Triple-A St. Paul as the organization's sixth starter. 

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[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

I foresee Varland having a very similar 2024 to Bailey Ober's 2023 season. Someone will get hurt, and Louie will have to be ready to step up, and I think he will be. I was fairly encouraged to see an uptick in velocity in his first outing, even if it was only 2 innings.

I've seen a few places list Louie Varland as a sleeper for 2024, notably Eno Sarris who has touted his ability to locate three of his pitches in the fastball/slider/cutter and that all 3 of them have pretty good movement profiles as well. 

Also, I think I need some more coffee. This line tripped me up a couple of times

Quote

Quickly, the hands of those flaming the fire of Varland becoming a fixture in the 'pen were singed as the organization signed, claimed, or traded

 

[Karbo]

I'm sure he'll be called on at some point, probably sooner rather than later. A little time in AAA will give him some time to refine his secondary pitches. With so many wanting to sign another starter, I feel the FO is probably right to wait. Varland is the 1st in line for call ups but it seems to me there are a few others that are coming soon.

[arby58]

I'm not sure I agree that Varland is "presumably better" than Paddock, who was pretty highly regarded before his two elbow surgeries. He was 22-21, 4.21 ERA, 2.3 WAR and 338 strikeouts in 335 innings with a 1.136 WAR. Those stats compare favorably with Varland's. If Paddock is back (his September performance was promising and you would assume the Twins were monitoring his work over the winter), I think he is a strong number four starter. Varland still has some things to prove as a starter as well.

[stringer bell]

Yes, I'd dispute that Louie is and will be better than Paddack. Paddack won't be a workhorse this year, but he could be pretty good. 

[Heiny]

Paddack and DeSclafani worry me a bit.  I like Varland as the sixth man up but would love to see a little more proof.  If something happens to one or more of our top 3 this season could take a deep dive in a hurry.  Don't get me wrong, I am excited about this team(as always), but realistically, with a few injuries, this rotation could fall apart in a hurry.

[stringer bell]

2 minutes ago, Heiny said:

Paddack and DeSclafani worry me a bit.  I like Varland as the sixth man up but would love to see a little more proof.  If something happens to one or more of our top 3 this season could take a deep dive in a hurry.  Don't get me wrong, I am excited about this team(as always), but realistically, with a few injuries, this rotation could fall apart in a hurry.

That is probably true for most everybody. Look what happened to the Yankees in the regular season and the Dodgers in post season. The Twins are quite top heavy with López, Ryan and Ober, 

[tony&rodney]

"Barring injury" are the two key words in the post. We don't need to worry because things will play out.

Personally, I would prefer that the Twins just stick Louie Varland in the rotation as the #4 and let him pitch.

[Brandon]

The Twins still have Woods-Richardson as a 7th starter and Festa as an 8th.  And Dobnak could be ok for a couple of starts.  He was league average in AAA with lots of Ks as a 9th starter.  I expect these 3 will combine for 5-15 starts in the majors this year.  Pearson Ohi is another name to watch for help this season as he was a solid AA starter last year.  As far as depth goes it’s not bad.  The first 2 have promise and a future and Dobnak is more of a floor type pitcher in the we feel confident he can deliver 6 innings of 4 runs or 5 innings of 3 runs baseball. We could sign Odorizzi to be spring training and 1rst month if the season depth in AAA.  What helps is we have the prospects to trade for a starter if needed and available. We have the depth needed.  And with the bullpen as deep as it is we also can do bullpen games or piggy back the starter with a multi inning reliever.  Options abound.

[Linus]

I’m glad they are keeping him as a starter. He still has plenty to prove but always have to pursue the starters role until proven otherwise. I enjoy watching him pitch and am not worried at all that he will be buried in St Paul. There is a decent chance we don’t make it to opening day without a top 5 starter injury. 

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Heiny said:

Paddack and DeSclafani worry me a bit.  I like Varland as the sixth man up but would love to see a little more proof.  If something happens to one or more of our top 3 this season could take a deep dive in a hurry.  Don't get me wrong, I am excited about this team(as always), but realistically, with a few injuries, this rotation could fall apart in a hurry.

DeSclafani gives me AJ Happ vibes.

[Craig Arko]

I predict Varland will get plenty of opportunities to start MLB games this season. Who thinks only 5 starters will suffice? Yeah, nobody.

[ToddlerHarmon]

The Twins off-season moves reflect that starters and relievers are on opposite ends of the bang-for-the-buck spectrum: they can't afford* any starters except hopeful injury recoveries, but can gather enough relievers with MLB experience for 2 bullpens, with minimal cost in trades or salaries.

So the natural course is to cling to any hope of being a cheap starter for as long as possible. Varland is a long way from taxing anyone's patience on that front. One wonders if the Twins secretly regret converting Duran, despite his relief dominance.

 

*What the Twins can "afford" is decided by Joe Pohlad, alas.

[ashbury]

16 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Varland recorded only two outs against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round, meaning little can be gleaned from his postseason experience.

I gleaned more than I wanted to glean, when Chapman hit that fly ball to the wall and fortunately into MAT's reliable glove, with two men on base and just a two-run lead.

[jkcarew]

“The team has sufficient veteran depth in the back-of-the-rotation in veterans Paddack and DeSclafani. Varland is presumably better than the aforementioned duo.”

Why? Because he’s younger? More healthy? From Minnesota?

Nobody in baseball with as many innings pitched in 2023 as Varland (68), gave up home runs as frequently as did Varland. Most of the numbers don’t presume that Varland is better. And if the Twins REALLY thought he was their 4th best option, he’d be in the rotation out of spring.

Now, they could be wrong. We’ll see. For me, I’d rather have him as a reliever rather than a starter with the big club. But, I’m fine them continuing to try to develop him as a starter at St. Paul, and giving him another shot when injuries/rest/failure happen.