Minnesota Twins 2024 Spring Training Storylines: Louie Varland's Present and Future

In 10 games as a starting pitcher last season, Louie Varland posted a 5.30 ERA and a 5.49 FIP. He struck out 54 batters and walked 16 over 241 total batters faced and 56 innings pitched. Despite posting nominally solid peripheral stats, the then-25-year-old's sophomore season ended prematurely. Varland's Achilles' heel as a starter was his inability to suppress home runs, evidenced by a 20.6% home run rate on fly balls over his 10 starts. Varland's tendency to allow the long ball, particularly on his four-seam fastball, led to a demotion to Triple-A St. Paul on June 18, after giving up five home runs over a string of three poor starts. 

After two and a half months away from the team, Varland returned to the big leagues as a reliever in September. In his return, the Concordia-St. Paul product pitched three innings, striking out two batters and walking one over 11 batters faced. Over the season's final month, Varland's strikeouts per nine jumped to 12.8, while sporting an above-average 0.8 walks per nine frames. Varland left 100 percent of inherited runners on base. In his seven appearances as a reliever, Varland gave up only two home runs, both in a game against the New York Mets on September 9. 

Varland's exceptional performance as a reliever was fueled by an increase in the velocity of his four-seam fastball and the refining of his secondary pitches, highlighted by a cutter in the low 90s. Varland's slider and changeup remained average as a reliever, but the implementation of his cutter assisted the now 26-year-old in forming a functional four-pitch mix that bodes well for starting. Varland recorded only two outs against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round, meaning little can be gleaned from his postseason experience. Regardless, with the postseason in the past and veterans Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Tyler Mahle departing the organization this offseason, Varland looks to rejoin the starting rotation mix. 

At the beginning of the offseason, Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar were the four relievers guaranteed a spot in the Twins' 2024 bullpen. Uncertainty surrounded the last four spots in the bullpen which caused speculation that Varland (coming off a dominant month-long performance) could become a vital member of the team's bullpen mix in 2024.

Quickly, the hands of those flaming the fire of Varland becoming a fixture in the 'pen were singed as the organization signed, claimed, or traded for relievers Josh Staumont, Ryan Jensen, Justin Topa, Daniel Duarte, Zack Weiss, Jay Jackson, and Steven Okert. 40-man roster spot inhabitants Staumont, Topa, Weiss, Jackson, Okert, and the returning Kody Funderburk and Jorge Alcalá will compete for the team's final bullpen spot, making clear Varland's role with the 2024 team. 

When pitchers and catchers reported to Fort Myers earlier this month, Varland was slated to compete with the recently acquired Anthony DeSclafani for the team's fifth rotation spot. In this circumstance, "compete" is a misnomer as the writing is on the wall for how Varland's 2024 campaign will begin. Varland has two minor-league options, and DeSclafani (a nine-year veteran) has none. Barring injury, the Twins Opening Day starting rotation will consist of Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and DeSclafani. With all five pitchers undergoing recent significant health or performance concerns, Varland could quickly join the team's starting rotation.

In his first spring training appearance (Saturday), Varland topped out at 98.3 MPH on his four-seam fastball with an average of 95.7 MPH. The Twins' young hurler averaged 95.3 MPH on his fastball last season, so a 0.4 MPH uptick is minimal. Still, showing a marginal increase in average four-seam fastball velocity in late February is nothing to scoff at and should be a vehicle for increased optimism around the 26-year-old's upcoming season. Varland also showcased his cutter and sinker in the game, throwing them a combined 44 percent of the time. Despite decreasing velocity from last season on his secondary hard pitches, Varland's cutter and sinker had more vertical break, a trait the Twins pitching staff values highly. Expect Varland to use his fastball, cutter, and sinker high in the zone and often against either-handed hitters, with his changeup and slider working as glove and arm-side complements, respectively. 

At the beginning of the offseason, there was debate about whether Varland would be a starter or reliever for the Twins in 2024. Though both sides had merit in their arguments, the Twins acquiring a surplus of relievers has made it evident that the hard-throwing right-hander will begin the season as a starter. The team has sufficient veteran depth in the back-of-the-rotation in veterans Paddack and DeSclafani. Varland is presumably better than the aforementioned duo. Yet, having two minor league options, he will presumptively begin this season in Triple-A St. Paul as the organization's sixth starter.