Mariners Inquired About Max Kepler During Jorge Polanco Trade Talks

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

Are the Twins looking to add prospects this year or are they looking to add major league ready players for 2024? Do they want to try and win it all this year, or are they leaning towards a 'modest' re-build? This is simply a question, not a value judgement.

Are they looking to add prospects? Yes

Are they looking to add major league ready players for 2024? Yes

Do they want to try to win it all this year? Yes

Are they leaning towards a modest rebuild? Zero chance at this. I don't see where you are getting this part from. The payroll drop is one thing, but if they add another hitter and (eventually) a playoff level starter, I don't see how the rest of the roster at all screams rebuild. 

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, wabene said:

I don't want to pile on and I certainly don't want to poke the bear and get mauled, lol, but here goes. How does losing our vaunted 2 two hole hitter and Kepler while adding Soler boost the offense? (ducks)

I meant from this point. We've already lost Polanco so the offense is what it is already. Switching Kepler for Soler would boost the offense, in my opinion. 

[wabene]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I meant from this point. We've already lost Polanco so the offense is what it is already. Switching Kepler for Soler would boost the offense, in my opinion. 

Agreed unless my dream happens and Kep continues where he left off in spite of losing his buddy. 

[chpettit19]

Just now, wabene said:

Agreed unless my dream happens and Kep continues where he left off in spite of losing his buddy. 

Yes, if Kepler is his 2nd half self for a full season we'll be talking about whether or not they can/should extend him. And I have my fingers crossed for that.

[nicksaviking]

24 minutes ago, wabene said:

I don't want to pile on and I certainly don't want to poke the bear and get mauled, lol, but here goes. How does losing our vaunted 2 two hole hitter and Kepler while adding Soler boost the offense? (ducks)

Losing Polanco doesn't help the offense, just the offenses flexibility in using the DH. I was in favor of keeping him over Kepler actually.

As for Soler vs Kepler, I don't really want either, but while both players are wildly inconsistent, Soler is much less so. Soler has a career OPS of .797 vs. Kepler's .753 and Solar's power doesn't up and disappear two out of every three years like Kepler's does. Soler's bad seasons were also his injury seasons, I don't know that there's much of a rationale for Kepler's poor seasons.

I think smart teams look for year-in-year-out reliable hitters though and that's neither of these guys. But if I had to choose, I'd take the more reliable one.

[jorgenswest]

If Soler is the better option, why wouldn’t a team sign him rather than trade assets for Kepler?

The answer must be the cost of the contract. If the Twins are willing to trade Kepler and take some of the burden of his contract either through sending dollars or taking back a bad contract then I can see this deal. The Twins would also get prospects or useful major league players in return. If they make this kind of deal they wouldn’t have the budget to get Soler either though.

[wabene]

28 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Losing Polanco doesn't help the offense, just the offenses flexibility in using the DH. I was in favor of keeping him over Kepler actually.

As for Soler vs Kepler, I don't really want either, but while both players are wildly inconsistent, Soler is much less so. Soler has a career OPS of .797 vs. Kepler's .753 and Solar's power doesn't up and disappear two out of every three years like Kepler's does. Soler's bad seasons were also his injury seasons, I don't know that there's much of a rationale for Kepler's poor seasons.

I think smart teams look for year-in-year-out reliable hitters though and that's neither of these guys. But if I had to choose, I'd take the more reliable one.

With the poor start and great finish Max ended up with a .816 OPS. If he gives you that he blows away Soler. I have no idea what we will get from Max, or many other Twins, lol. 

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, wabene said:

With the poor start and great finish Max ended up with a .816 OPS. If he gives you that he blows away Soler. I have no idea what we will get from Max, or many other Twins, lol. 

Kepler has never repeated a good season, if he sticks with the Twins, I hope he does. But objectively, I'm not looking at him any differently than free agents like Jeimer Candelario or Cody Bellinger. They don't interest me as I believe that veterans who have an actual sustained career renaissance is very small. Most revert to their inconsistent and disappointing ways.

[Cap'n Piranha]

16 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Max had an outstanding 2019 and a respectable second half in 2023. That said, you are still correct. He is our most “reliable “ OF. 

Respectable is a drastic understatement of what Max did in the second half of last year.  Here is a list of right fielders who had a better second half by wRC+; Betts, Acuna, Judge.  That's it.  Max hit .306/.377/.549 in the second half, had a 1/2 bb/k ratio, and hit 12 homers in only 66 games.  If 2023 second half Max shows up for the entirety of 2024, he's one of the three best hitters on the team, at minimum.

That said, I'm not betting a lot on Max maintaining that production.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Losing Polanco doesn't help the offense, just the offenses flexibility in using the DH. I was in favor of keeping him over Kepler actually.

As for Soler vs Kepler, I don't really want either, but while both players are wildly inconsistent, Soler is much less so. Soler has a career OPS of .797 vs. Kepler's .753 and Solar's power doesn't up and disappear two out of every three years like Kepler's does. Soler's bad seasons were also his injury seasons, I don't know that there's much of a rationale for Kepler's poor seasons.

I think smart teams look for year-in-year-out reliable hitters though and that's neither of these guys. But if I had to choose, I'd take the more reliable one.

I assume you mean doesn't hurt the offense--if so, I agree.  Both Lewis and Julien are superior offensive options, and since Correa isn't going anywhere (not that you'd want to play Polanco at short), the only positions available for Polanco are 1B and DH.  Kiriloff is at 1B currently, and had a better wRC+ than Polanco last year (albeit by only 2 points), and if Buxton needs to DH on anything approaching a regular basis, all of the sudden it's a struggle to get Polanco into more than 3-4 games a week; I can think of better things to spend resources on than an injury prone part-time DH/weak side of a 1B platoon.

Turning a largely superfluous piece (Polanco only has value to the Twins if 2 out of Lewis, Lee, and Julien are injured/ineffective) into sorely-needed rotation depth, a clear top half of the bullpen piece, and a borderline Top 100 prospect is an excellent move in my opinion.

[RpR]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I was merely thinking that Kepler might like playing in Seattle with Jorge.

As they came up together and were mates during their entire pro careers, I do have to agree with that.

[tony&rodney]

59 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I assume you mean doesn't hurt the offense

Curious why you would just turn around what nicksaviking said? It was clear. 

If you disagree, that is fine. Did you think he made mistakes in his writing? 

[Cap'n Piranha]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Curious why you would just turn around what nicksaviking said? It was clear. 

If you disagree, that is fine. Did you think he made mistakes in his writing? 

Generally when you think about subtracting a player you already have, you talk in terms about if it hurts the team or not.  When you talk about adding a player, it's about whether it helps or not.  Kudos to you for thinking it was clear, I personally found the phrasing confusing, so I wanted to clarify before I proceeded with an incorrect assumption.  

[clone52]

18 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If the Twins passed up one of Seattle’s real pitchers for Kepler, I’ll be upset.

With that salary savings they could have signed Hoskins or Turner and put Kirilloff back in the outfield.

I have a feeling that this is part of a bigger plan.  Either Gabrial Gonzalez or Emmanuel Rodriguez might be the center piece of a trade for an establish SP.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I assume you mean doesn't hurt the offense--if so, I agree.  Both Lewis and Julien are superior offensive options, and since Correa isn't going anywhere (not that you'd want to play Polanco at short), the only positions available for Polanco are 1B and DH.  Kiriloff is at 1B currently, and had a better wRC+ than Polanco last year (albeit by only 2 points), and if Buxton needs to DH on anything approaching a regular basis, all of the sudden it's a struggle to get Polanco into more than 3-4 games a week; I can think of better things to spend resources on than an injury prone part-time DH/weak side of a 1B platoon.

Turning a largely superfluous piece (Polanco only has value to the Twins if 2 out of Lewis, Lee, and Julien are injured/ineffective) into sorely-needed rotation depth, a clear top half of the bullpen piece, and a borderline Top 100 prospect is an excellent move in my opinion.

I was more than fine moving Polanco. With his position in flux, there are plenty of options to replace him sitting at other levels.  The odds are that at least one of Miranda, Lee, Martin, Severino, Prato, Camargo or someone else will end up being as good if not better with the bat.

I was just saying if I had to choose between the two, I'd pick Polanco over Kepler due to Polanco's more reliable bat.

[Cap'n Piranha]

10 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I was more than fine moving Polanco. With his position in flux, there are plenty of options to replace him sitting at other levels.  The odds are that at least one of Miranda, Lee, Martin, Severino, Prato, Camargo or someone else will end up being as good if not better with the bat.

I was just saying if I had to choose between the two, I'd pick Polanco over Kepler due to Polanco's more reliable bat.

Completely agree on the first part.

On the second part, I'd rather have Kepler than Polanco, simply because the delta between Polanco and his replacement is much smaller than the delta between Kepler and his replacement.

[Otaknam]

22 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Ok. Let's do it. Kepler to Seattle for Berroa with the Twins picking up a good part of Max's contract. The Twins save a little more money and Larnach/Gordon get some MLB time. It's good for Kepler, the Pohlads, and the Mariners. Why not do it?

Just spit balling here, but maybe because Seattle has to agree to do it too. 

[Trov]

I am wondering who said no first, or how the talks went.  My guess Seattle said how much for both, we said one of their top young pitchers, either Gilbert or Kirby, and Seattle said no, so we said lets talk about just one of them then, and more willing to part with Polanco at this point. Had there been an offer that included either of the SP I think Twins should have listened more, but my guess Seattle said either were off the table from the jump. 

[EGFTShaw]

On 1/31/2024 at 7:55 PM, nicksaviking said:

If the Twins passed up one of Seattle’s real pitchers for Kepler, I’ll be upset.

With that salary savings they could have signed Hoskins or Turner and put Kirilloff back in the outfield.

You'd be right to be upset, BUT 99.44% sure that didn't happen unless you define a real pitcher as something different than I do.

Kepler/Polanco together was not going to pull away a starter I'd be happy with give the value of their contracts.

Seattle could still flip Polanco at the trade deadline if they are out of it and recoup some of the Prospect #3.5 (GG).  The rest of the trade I am sure Seattle doesn't care too much about.

So, unless I snort some Yellow Snow and Carlos "Guitar" Santana hits .300 and 30+ HRs it could be possible for Seattle to "win" this trade.

[tony&rodney]

Dipoto specifically stated that he was going to turn every leaf all winter to get the players he wanted with resources other than his starting pitchers and would only reconsider once the offseason was closing. 

The facts are clear - we don't know what was discussed or at least I don't know.

When Dipoto hinted that he would only trade one of his starters if he felt he had to, this seemed like the time to hold out. Seattle had a real need, Minnesota did not. Our team was fine as is. All offseason I expected a trade that included Polanco and suggested several. My hope was the team was strengthened. I would have held until March at least. Other teams were also in for Polanco as well. If the teams made ultimatums, hem and haw. Let them sign Whitfield. It's done and doesn't matter now.

[harmony55]

On 2/9/2024 at 3:11 PM, tony&rodney said:

Dipoto specifically stated that he was going to turn every leaf all winter to get the players he wanted with resources other than his starting pitchers and would only reconsider once the offseason was closing. 

The facts are clear - we don't know what was discussed or at least I don't know.

When Dipoto hinted that he would only trade one of his starters if he felt he had to, this seemed like the time to hold out. Seattle had a real need, Minnesota did not. Our team was fine as is. All offseason I expected a trade that included Polanco and suggested several. My hope was the team was strengthened. I would have held until March at least. Other teams were also in for Polanco as well. If the teams made ultimatums, hem and haw. Let them sign Whitfield. It's done and doesn't matter now.

Seattle apparently coveted Jorge Polanco for years and Minnesota PBO Derek Falvey held out until the Mariners upped their offer to top offers from other teams. Falvey likely reached the well-founded conclusion that a young, controllable starter would never be on the table in a Polanco trade.

With the departures of Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, the Twins had greater needs than the Mariners, who have Luis Urias and Josh Rojas available at third base and second base. Over the past years Polanco never posted the 2+ fWAR season that Urias and Rojas each did. Polanco is a welcome luxury not a necessity.

[tony&rodney]

Just now, harmony55 said:

Seattle apparently coveted Jorge Polanco for years and Minnesota PBO Derek Falvey held out until the Mariners upped their offer to top offers from other teams. Falvey likely reached the well-founded conclusion that a young, controllable starter would never be on the table in a Polanco trade.

With the departures of Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, the Twins had greater needs than the Mariners, who have Luis Urias and Josh Rojas available at third base and second base. Over the past years Polanco never posted the 2+ fWAR season that Urias and Rojas each did. Polanco is a welcome luxury not a necessity.

Now, if you follow the Mariners you know that is not true at all. The Twins didn't get anything to replace either Gray or Maeda. They already have Varland and Paddack. If you follow Dipoto you should also know that he will go all the way until the start of the season, if necessary, to make a deal. That is why he is called Trader Jerry. 

If Urias and Rojas were ever in the plans for Seattle, they would not have called Minnesota ceaselessly. You will know the answer if Polanco is the starting second baseman batting in the top four of the lineup. The quotes thus far are that he will bat second or third. Try to find a lineup where Rojas or Urias would bat consistently at the top of a lineup. 

We have no idea why a deal was done in late January. That is a fact. I will speculate that there was a deadline to reduce salary for Falvey based on comments made by him. We will never know who Dipoto was willing to offer next to find a pathway to improving the Seattle lineup. We do know that their expected wins went up by two games and the Twins fell by one. The Twins will be fine covering for Polanco due to the number of their options. They have also added Carlos Santana with the money saved in the deal. Minnesota also plays in the AL Central. Seattle had options too. They could have waited another year or two while one of their fine young infielders developed. Now, as Dipoto has said, Seattle can compete for a playoff position. 

Lastly, as a Seattle fan, how can you go against the comments of the PBO, GM, manager, players, bloggers, and writers who all speak of the importance of Polanco for the Mariners getting back to the playoffs.

[harmony55]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Now, if you follow the Mariners you know that is not true at all. The Twins didn't get anything to replace either Gray or Maeda. They already have Varland and Paddack. If you follow Dipoto you should also know that he will go all the way until the start of the season, if necessary, to make a deal. That is why he is called Trader Jerry. 

If Urias and Rojas were ever in the plans for Seattle, they would not have called Minnesota ceaselessly. You will know the answer if Polanco is the starting second baseman batting in the top four of the lineup. The quotes thus far are that he will bat second or third. Try to find a lineup where Rojas or Urias would bat consistently at the top of a lineup. 

We have no idea why a deal was done in late January. That is a fact. I will speculate that there was a deadline to reduce salary for Falvey based on comments made by him. We will never know who Dipoto was willing to offer next to find a pathway to improving the Seattle lineup. We do know that their expected wins went up by two games and the Twins fell by one. The Twins will be fine covering for Polanco due to the number of their options. They have also added Carlos Santana with the money saved in the deal. Minnesota also plays in the AL Central. Seattle had options too. They could have waited another year or two while one of their fine young infielders developed. Now, as Dipoto has said, Seattle can compete for a playoff position. 

Lastly, as a Seattle fan, how can you go against the comments of the PBO, GM, manager, players, bloggers, and writers who all speak of the importance of Polanco for the Mariners getting back to the playoffs.

Before the trade Chris Paddack and Louie Varland made up two-fifths of the Twins starting rotation while Luis Urias and Josh Rojas made up two-ninths of the Mariner lineup.

https://zonecoverage.com/2024/mn-twins-news/will-the-twins-piggyback-pitchers-in-2024/

The Twins had the greater need but an ideal trade helps both teams.

[tony&rodney]

32 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Before the trade Chris Paddack and Louie Variant made up two-fifths of the Twins starting rotation while Luis Urias and Josh Rojas  made up two-ninths of the Mariner lineup.

The Twins had the greater need but an ideal trade helps both teams.

The Twins still have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack as their starting pitchers. DeSclafani will be evaluated for his availability (likely on IL at the beginning of the year) but was never going to slot in the top of either Seattle's or Minnesota's rotations. If you look around baseball sites, read Twins Daily, or just are real aware of the teams throughout the league you know that the Twins were looking and will still look to eventually find a guy to put near the top of the rotation. It hasn't happened yet. DeSclafani will fill the exact same role  for the Twins as he would have for the Mariners - depth. The Mariners SP are ranked among the top three in baseball from what I can tell, but it is also noteworthy that the Twins are top 4-7 in all of baseball depending on the source. 

The Twins are hopeful that Gabriel Gonzalez is useful eventually and that Topa can repeat his rookie year. As far as the two good utility players, Urias and Rojas, they may be much better in the expected platoon. 

We exchanged too many comments already. The Mariners and Twins should both win around 85 games, more if everything clicks and the players' health holds up reasonably well. Take care and enjoy the season.