2024 Prospect Previews: Charlee Soto

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins selected a high octane high school arm with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft. What should we expect from Charlee Soto in 2024?

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo

In addition to having the good fortune to move up eight spots in the inaugural MLB draft lottery, the Minnesota Twins had a Comp A pick at their disposal in the 2023 draft. With the 34th pick in the draft, they took Charlee Soto, a right-handed pitcher out of Reborn Christian Academy in Florida, who was committed to the University of Central Florida.

Scouting and Signing
Soto held his own in the minds of evaluators in an excellent 2023 prep class, finishing as the consensus 36th best prospect in the draft with little to no modulation in that ranking in the pre-draft process. A converted shortstop, Soto is relatively new to pitching. Soto was the fourth prep arm taken in the draft after Noble Meyer, Thomas White, and Josh Knoth, (we’ll set Bryce Eldridge aside as a two-way player). Soto signed for slot at $2.48 million, one of the largest bonuses the Twins have ever given a prep pitcher.

Soto has the type of body and physicality you’d expect out of a mid-rotation starting pitching prospect. Shooting up another two inches throughout the draft process, he now stands 6’5 and is an imposing figure on the mound. Soto experienced a significant velocity jump as a senior in high school. His fastball went from low 90s to mid 90s, and the pitch can grab 98mph. I wouldn’t be surprised if Soto is already touching triple digits with the pitch and he certainly will after he stops growing and spends some time with Twins development staff.

Soto has a compact delivery with a relatively short arm stroke, albeit with some effort at release. At present, his fastball lacks the type of shape that will play up in the strike zone. The Twins may tinker with the shape of this pitch, or consider adding a sinker to mitigate this. Soto’s best secondary offering is a changeup he throws with conviction that displays tumble and fade. This pitch was one of the better examples in the 2023 draft class (college or prep). He also has a hard slider he throws in the upper 80s that’s already above average, having improved significantly in the spring ahead of the draft, with a chance for more. As with many prep prospects, one of the factors governing Soto’s ceiling will be his ability to command his pitches which will likely be a work in progress and his development plan is put in place.

2023 Performance and 2024 Expectations
Like many of the pitchers the Twins selected in the draft, Soto did not debut in 2023. He spent time at instructs with other prospects. He’ll make his professional debut in 2024, likely at Fort Myers. 

Soto was just 17 on draft day and one of the youngest prospects in the entire class. I’d expect the Twins to move him along slowly and be creative with his usage. It’s notable that Marco Raya was largely used two times through the order in 2023, the Twins could use a similar approach with Soto. It’s also worth tempering expectations for his debut. Prospects all have developmental goals from the organization that often work at odds with performance and outcomes in the minor leagues, so take Soto’s initial outcomes with a grain of salt, be they encouraging or disappointing.

Soto will no doubt be an exciting prospect to track and the kind of talent I’d target with a Comp A pick. It’s an exceptionally quick arm, an arsenal that shows real promise, and a level of physicality and athleticism that offers more projection. The Twins have some exciting clay to mold.

What are your expectations for Charlee Soto in 2024? Where do you think he will start the season? Join the conversation with a comment below. 

 

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[SteveLV]

I get a bit of a Dwight Gooden vibe watching his pitching motion.  More of a pronounced left lower leg kick, and FB seems to sink more than ride like Gooden's.  Similar size, Soto perhaps a bit thicker build.

Hope he has similar success!  Such an exciting prospect to follow.

[Cory Engelhardt]

My hope/expectation is for him to get through the 2024 season healthy. His stuff does look electric. Thanks!

[ashbury]

On 1/18/2024 at 8:20 AM, Jamie Cameron said:

He’ll make his professional debut in 2024, likely at Fort Myers.

FSL, or FCL?

[Dman]

Thanks for the nice Writeup, Jamie! I am excited about this pick.  A high velocity arm with a good changeup could be a game changer.  Lot's of evaluators don't love the fastball or he would have been picked earlier.  Still young and hopefully the Twins can find a way to make it better.  If they do this kid could be a frontline starter IMO.

[Fatbat]

What a diamond in the ruff! He may only be 18 yo but his mental maturity is off the charts.  No idea where his ceiling is but Dwight Gooden type career would be incredible.  
I would expect him to spend all of ‘23 in Florida but if he blows thru development and is just a plain beast, is Iowa ready for him in August?? I would bet on him being a one of a kind type and develop quickly.  

[Heiny]

I love the pick but comparing him to Gooden may be a little pre-mature.  I also believe that the Twins will move him along slowly.  Rookie ball for '24 only.  Even if he develops fairly quickly, I doubt we would see him in the bigs before '27 and he'd still only be 22 years old then.  Bring him along slow and steady and play it by ear.

[TopGunn#22]

While I was thrilled with the first round pick of Walker Jenkins I was very intrigued by the pick of Soto in the Comp Balance Round A.  The fact that he's hitting 98 with his fastball already and has an above average change up and slider is very encouraging. 

I agree that the best outcome is just that he gets through 2024 healthy and continues to refine his pitches and control.  He's a LOT like Marco Raya.  These two give the Twins great hope for future rotation/bullpen contributors.  I expect the Twins to go slow with Soto much like Raya but the wait could very well be worth it.  

[SteveLV]

I was comparing him to Gooden in terms of stature and his throwing motion.  Obviously having pitched zero innings professionally and just turning 18, any performance-based comparison is impossible.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

This has been one of those picks where many have been disappointed but when you look at what he is doing it is damn impressive.  He started off in A ball.  It was pretty clear,  the older competition was was a bit advanced for him and he struggled early with locating pitches.  This is still a work in progress.  For the year he is working on getting his ERA sub 6, and I think if he can get it to a 4 handle that would be a hell of an achievement.  In his last 4 starts he has a 4.77 ERA which includes a clunker from 2 outings ago.  They have lengthened him out to 4 innings per an outing,  would like to see him become a bit more efficient down the stretch to begin pushing to 5 innings.  The stuff is electric,  it just needs a little more refining.  But then you remind yourself,  he is still only 18 years old,  let me repeat that, 18 years old,  and he is now more than holding his own at A ball where he is 4 years younger than the competition.  If Soto was in this draft,  I don't think he lasts to the Twins comp pick.  The question with Soto was his rawness and how he would handle a full pitching load, as had not been a pitcher until his last couple years.  With a 6'5" and thick frame,  it looks pretty apparent the body can hold up to the rigors of a full season.  He needs to continue to improve,  but if he continues to become more consistent, a promotion to A+ ball next year as a 19 year old is well within reach.