Jorge Polanco Drawing Increased Trade Interest

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

Baseball Trades Values offers values, not context.

The casual fan may offer trade context before grabbing values out of the air.

Each value assessment should be given appropriate weight. Neither is gospel.

BTV is pointless, merely for entertainment, but not advisable for practical usage. Refer to Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez trade. Of course my example was ridiculous, just like almost every trade offered on that site. 

[harmony55]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

BTV is pointless, merely for entertainment, but not advisable for practical usage. Refer to Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez trade. Of course my example was ridiculous, just like almost every trade offered on that site. 

Again, any trade value should be assigned appropriate weight:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history

Systematically reviewed valuations -- not just those at BTV -- are always welcome.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Interesting, cuz I'd actually call that a slight overpay by the Twins. I don't think Woo is a frontline guy. I think he'd just be another 3-5 guy like the Twins already have a bunch of. But I know others are higher on Woo than I am.

I think Woo has all of the stuff and command that he can be a high level guy. I don’t know if he is that December 2023, but I think he could show that by June 2024.

[LA Vikes Fan]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I would LOVE Woo. I think he has everything a great pitcher would need, and tons of control.

I'd throw out Polanco with Wallner. That gives Seattle two bats at positions of need, and Wallner especially could equal the service time that Woo has for Seattle. It might be tough for Seattle to lose Woo, and it might be tough for us to lose Wallner, but a deal like this would make it more possible for the Twins to keep Kepler around for 2024.

 

Thoughts?

This is a response to you Cory and harmony 55. I agree that Seattle could be looking for less players/more quality then my suggestion. I just didn't want to include Brooks Lee, Julien, or even Miranda. I hadn't really thought about Wallner as a companion to Polanco for Woo. I think adding him in is a good idea to get Woo. I would want more than just Woo, though if we give up Wallner with Polanco. I would want them to add a veteran quality relief pitcher like Justin Topa or Gabe Speier, a young reliever like Ty Adcock or Prelander Berroa, or an OF with potential.    

[Cory Engelhardt]

35 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This is a response to you Cory and harmony 55. I agree that Seattle could be looking for less players/more quality then my suggestion. I just didn't want to include Brooks Lee, Julien, or even Miranda. I hadn't really thought about Wallner as a companion to Polanco for Woo. I think adding him in is a good idea to get Woo. I would want more than just Woo, though if we give up Wallner with Polanco. I would want them to add a veteran quality relief pitcher like Justin Topa or Gabe Speier, a young reliever like Ty Adcock or Prelander Berroa, or an OF with potential.    

Sign me up 

[harmony55]

4 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This is a response to you Cory and harmony 55. I agree that Seattle could be looking for less players/more quality then my suggestion. I just didn't want to include Brooks Lee, Julien, or even Miranda. I hadn't really thought about Wallner as a companion to Polanco for Woo. I think adding him in is a good idea to get Woo. I would want more than just Woo, though if we give up Wallner with Polanco. I would want them to add a veteran quality relief pitcher like Justin Topa or Gabe Speier, a young reliever like Ty Adcock or Prelander Berroa, or an OF with potential.    

Seattle jettisoned Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez and Jarred Kelenic largely because of their strikeout rates above 30 percent.

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/seattle-mariners-make-it-clear-they-want-to-add-high-contact-hitters-to-their-lineup-this-offseason

Matt Wallner would be an unlikely trade target for the Mariners with his career and projected 2024 strikeout rate of 32.9 percent.

The Twins and Mariners probably don't match up in a trade.

[nicksaviking]

16 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Some folks are impressed by Bryan Woo's Baseball Savant page:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bryan-woo-693433?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

Assuming people are looking at the Mariners four 26 and under starters, my order of preference would be Kirby and Woo than Gilbert and Miller. 

Woo's top-end ability to miss bats probably provides more upside than all of the others.

[Cory Engelhardt]

12 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Seattle jettisoned Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez and Jarred Kelenic largely because of their strikeout rates above 30 percent.

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/seattle-mariners-make-it-clear-they-want-to-add-high-contact-hitters-to-their-lineup-this-offseason

Matt Wallner would be an unlikely trade target for the Mariners with his career and projected 2024 strikeout rate of 32.9 percent.

The Twins and Mariners probably don't match up in a trade.

His walk rate offsets that, and he is cheap for a number of years. It's just a thought. He has power and he takes walks, as well as has a huge arm in the outfield. 

I certainly take him over any of the players they traded away for 2024. 

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Assuming people are looking at the Mariners four 26 and under starters, my order of preference would be Kirby and Woo than Gilbert and Miller. 

Woo's top-end ability to miss bats probably provides more upside than all of the others.

And Seattle starts the conversation asking for Julien/Lee, Festa and a low-level prospect, not Polanco and/or Kepler.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

As much as we all like to hang onto every asset that we have, the Twins have to ask themselves whether they are better off with Polanco/Kepler/Farmer/Velasquez on the team (given the apparent financial constraints for payroll totals) or are they better off freeing up $20M in order to pay a pretty good free agent starter.  Alternatively, can they trade for one, but a similar cost/reward analysis holds.  They don't need to trade all of them, but they probably need to trade one or more of them in order for the roster to make more sense moving forward.

[Cory Engelhardt]

18 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

And Seattle starts the conversation asking for Julien/Lee, Festa and a low-level prospect, not Polanco and/or Kepler.

I mean, maybe. Their websites certainly like the idea of Polanco and Kepler for 2024. 

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

And Seattle starts the conversation asking for Julien/Lee, Festa and a low-level prospect, not Polanco and/or Kepler.

Yeah, maybe. And I'm still interested.

I offer Polanco/Kepler + prospects to both the Marlins and Mariners first, but if they don't value the vets at all, I'm still willing to work out a deal. 

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, maybe. Their websites certainly like the idea of Polanco and Kepler for 2024. 

I don't see a team taking both, BUT should anyone bite, Polanco AND Kepler and prospects for a top end starter would be great. The Twins would then likely still have the budget to sign a Rhys Hoskins or Justin Turner along with Lourdes Gurriel. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don’t know that I see both in the same trade either. But Kepler in one trade, and Polanco, or Polanco with prospect(s) makes sense to me

[LA Vikes Fan]

33 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

And Seattle starts the conversation asking for Julien/Lee, Festa and a low-level prospect, not Polanco and/or Kepler.

I'm sure they do if we're trying to get Kirby or Gilbert. Those two are probably unattainable for the Twins. Miller or Woo, on the other hand, have a much shorter track record and might be attainable. I think either would cost us Polanco, a pitching prospect and a hitting prospect. 

I'm thinking Polanco, plus Raya or Festa, plus Salas or someone like that. Alternatively, the Polanco and Wallner for Woo trade is interesting. Both are close to a match on BTV to the extent that matters.  Bottom line, is that getting even Miller or Woo is going to be expensive in terms of players. 

[mnfireman]

So the Twins need pitching long-term, but everybody wants to include Festa and Raya in trades... If they have to be included, don't make the trade. Unless some extensions are offered, Paddack is a FA after '25 and Lopez, Ryan and Ober are FA's after '27. That is a lot of SP to have replace, the team can't keep trading players/prospects for 1 or 2 years of a veteran SP. 

[nicksaviking]

7 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

So the Twins need pitching long-term, but everybody wants to include Festa and Raya in trades... If they have to be included, don't make the trade. Unless some extensions are offered, Paddack is a FA after '25 and Lopez, Ryan and Ober are FA's after '27. That is a lot of SP to have replace, the team can't keep trading players/prospects for 1 or 2 years of a veteran SP. 

How are Festa and Raya better bets than the Marlins and Mariners pitchers? Most of those guys are still under contract for 4-5 more years. 

Corbin Burnes is pretty much the only pitcher I've seen mentioned on this board that's under contract for less than 2 years.

[William K Johnson]

On 12/11/2023 at 9:25 AM, tony&rodney said:

You are not alone with that thought/comment.

Did you see Julien play 2B in September at all?

However, I wonder if you have considered how the Twins look at who plays where.

Who do you believe will play second base? Would you bet $5 that Falvey agrees with you?

 

I hope Polanco plays second until Lee is ready, then either Lee or Lewis moves to second.   This reminds me of the discussion we had this time last year when several on this board were willing to hand third base to Miranda.   Well, we know how that worked out.   Julien a starter at second would have similar results.

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, William K Johnson said:

This reminds me of the discussion we had this time last year when several on this board were willing to hand third base to Miranda.   Well, we know how that worked out. 

I know you made your mind up a year ago on both Julien and Miranda, but there are a couple of things worth noting: 1. They are far different players, not many similarities in their approach. 2. We don't know how Miranda turned out because he hurt his shoulder in the first week of Spring Training. If you don't believe that injuries make any difference or that those two are the same, I don't have anything else. FWIW, I'm not worrying about either player because i don't have strong feelings about their worth. Falvey makes the team.

[mnfireman]

49 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

How are Festa and Raya better bets than the Marlins and Mariners pitchers? Most of those guys are still under contract for 4-5 more years. 

 

They aren't, but those other young, controllable pitchers aren't sure things either. Yes, many, most or even all of them have debuted in the MLB, most to mixed results so far. Not to mention injuries.

Festa projected by MLB and FanGraphs to debut this season, if he does, he maybe takes a little pressure off of Paddack and/or Varland if either is on an innings limit.

SWR might figure things out, he is still considerably younger than most at AAA,

Canterino may make the BP out of ST or early in the season, if he is stretched out he can piggyback with other starters to help with innings limits.

Varland and Headrick have had a taste of MLB and could be useful.

Raya is projected to debut in '25. 

Soto, Prielipp, Lewis, Culpepper, etc...

I like how the teams pitching pipeline is taking shape and don't feel any "Big" trades need be made unless said trade doesn't disrupt this.

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

They aren't, but those other young, controllable pitchers aren't sure things either. Yes, many, most or even all of them have debuted in the MLB, most to mixed results so far. Not to mention injuries.

Festa projected by MLB and FanGraphs to debut this season, if he does, he maybe takes a little pressure off of Paddack and/or Varland if either is on an innings limit.

SWR might figure things out, he is still considerably younger than most at AAA,

Canterino may make the BP out of ST or early in the season, if he is stretched out he can piggyback with other starters to help with innings limits.

Varland and Headrick have had a taste of MLB and could be useful.

Raya is projected to debut in '25. 

Soto, Prielipp, Lewis, Culpepper, etc...

I like how the teams pitching pipeline is taking shape and don't feel any "Big" trades need be made unless said trade doesn't disrupt this.

I also REALLY like how the pitching pipeline is looking. Wichita is going to be stacked starting in 2024, and some of that will matriculate up to St. Paul as the year goes on. 

I just want to make a deal for someone who can step in early in the 2024 mlb regular season rotation. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, mnfireman said:

So the Twins need pitching long-term, but everybody wants to include Festa and Raya in trades... If they have to be included, don't make the trade. Unless some extensions are offered, Paddack is a FA after '25 and Lopez, Ryan and Ober are FA's after '27. That is a lot of SP to have replace, the team can't keep trading players/prospects for 1 or 2 years of a veteran SP. 

If the Twins can't replace some starters by 2028 they're doomed anyways.

[tony&rodney]

Any trade that improves the team should happen. Polanco, Lewis, whatever.

Trades to clear money for minimal return will set the team back. Cleveland and Detroit hope for this.

Seth Lugo signed a 3/$45M contract with KC today. Clearing $20 million is not going to help the team.

The only thing that will help the Twins is a gamble type trade similar to the deal made last season. 

Given the clear priority towards pitching, the Twins cannot trade their top pitching prospects.

Falvey has his work cut out for him. 

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If the Twins can't replace some starters by 2028 they're doomed anyways.

Can't replace them if they trade all the young starters away, leads to a vicious cycle of constantly trading prospects for 1 or 2 years of a veteran.

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Can't replace them if they trade all the young starters away, leads to a vicious cycle of constantly trading prospects for 1 or 2 years of a veteran.

They'd have the 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 drafts to replace Festa and Raya. If they can't do that they should be fired. If Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Varland are so good as to lock down rotation spots through 2027, how many more of the young guys do we need? Especially if you bring in another controllable arm through trade this offseason. 

Are Festa and Raya going to simply be injury replacements between now and 2028? Neither of them could be called up this year if that's the case because they'd run out of options by 2027. Then what are they going to do with Lewis, Culpepper, Prielipp, Ohl, etc? Having 4 or 5 guys locked into rotation spots for 4 years is exactly when you trade some guys to upgrade the team because you don't have anywhere to put them anyways. Don't trade all of them, but 2 of them shouldn't hurt that bad.

[Guest]

How might one conclude that trading anyone "makes sense" until we know what's been offered?  Polo is an attractive trade chip, but what's on offer?  Zip, near as I can tell.

[jmlease1]

On 12/12/2023 at 1:45 PM, William K Johnson said:

I hope Polanco plays second until Lee is ready, then either Lee or Lewis moves to second.   This reminds me of the discussion we had this time last year when several on this board were willing to hand third base to Miranda.   Well, we know how that worked out.   Julien a starter at second would have similar results.

Miranda didn't work out last year at 3B because he got hurt and couldn't hit or throw with that bum shoulder. You can't predict injury. Julien had a terrific season (better than the 2022 year from Miranda that had many of us enthusiastic about his future) and finished strong after a wobble in August, while showing real improvement in the field.

the only way you can really say they're going to have similar results is if you know Julien is going to get hurt. Are you predicting injury for Ed Julien?

[RpR]

18 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Miranda didn't work out last year at 3B because he got hurt and couldn't hit or throw with that bum shoulder. You can't predict injury. Julien had a terrific season (better than the 2022 year from Miranda that had many of us enthusiastic about his future) and finished strong after a wobble in August, while showing real improvement in the field.

the only way you can really say they're going to have similar results is if you know Julien is going to get hurt. Are you predicting injury for Ed Julien?

Miranda is a NOT good fielder; Julien is a NOT good fielder -- very similar results.

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, RpR said:

Miranda is a NOT good fielder; Julien is a NOT good fielder -- very similar results.

Come on now. They don't play the same position. Their results are not actually similar, You are being silly.

[laloesch]

On 12/12/2023 at 3:12 PM, mnfireman said:

They aren't, but those other young, controllable pitchers aren't sure things either. Yes, many, most or even all of them have debuted in the MLB, most to mixed results so far. Not to mention injuries.

Festa projected by MLB and FanGraphs to debut this season, if he does, he maybe takes a little pressure off of Paddack and/or Varland if either is on an innings limit.

SWR might figure things out, he is still considerably younger than most at AAA,

Canterino may make the BP out of ST or early in the season, if he is stretched out he can piggyback with other starters to help with innings limits.

Varland and Headrick have had a taste of MLB and could be useful.

Raya is projected to debut in '25. 

Soto, Prielipp, Lewis, Culpepper, etc...

I like how the teams pitching pipeline is taking shape and don't feel any "Big" trades need be made unless said trade doesn't disrupt this.

 

I don't understand the fascination with SWR that many fans here have.  His minor league stats have been like a yo yo from one year to the next.