2023 Major League Baseball Winter Meetings Preview

[Ted Schwerzler]

While the offseason can be a slog from the perspective of a fan looking for news across the Major League Baseball landscape, at no point does the stove get hotter than during the Winter Meetings. Expect things to heat up for the Twins as they head to the Meetings Dec. 4-7, in Nashville.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey hasn’t offered much in the way of concrete plans for Rocco Baldelli’s 2024 club thus far. We have heard how uncertainty regarding a new broadcasting deal will impact the payroll. There have been rumors of veteran players whom the Twins could make available. The team has watched three talented pitchers sign elsewhere as free agents. Subtractions (and speculation about them) abound, but there haven't yet been additions or replacements.

The ball has to get rolling at some point, though. What are a few focal points when teams convene during baseball’s offseason get-together?

Do the Twins Make a Move?
A year ago, the Minnesota Twins were active before the Winter Meetings. On November 18, they traded Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels for Alejandro Hidalgo, and followed that up by acquiring Kyle Farmer from the Cincinnati Reds for Casey Legumina. A few minor-league deals happened earlier in the month, but Christian Vazquez didn’t agree to their first free-agent deal until December 16. Joey Gallo then followed suit not long after.

Unfortunately, there isn’t a condensed, football- or basketball-style free-agent frenzy in baseball, as is the case in other sports. We saw a one after the lockout was lifted a couple of years ago, but traditionally, the hot stove heats up most during the Winter Meetings, and simmers (rather than boiling aggressively) throughout the winter. As Minnesota looks to scale back payroll, how aggressive they will be on the free agency front remains to be seen. This front office has traditionally waited out the market, but they could look to spend the dollars they have allocated early and create a modicum of certainty.

The Twins shouldn’t be considered prominent players for the biggest names on the open market, and there was evidence of that in allowing Sonny Gray to play elsewhere for $75 million in total guarantees from St. Louis. Finding players to do one-year deals this early on in the winter can be tough, but it may be where Minnesota looks to shoot their shot.

What Groundwork is Laid for a Trade?
More than the free-agent market, it stands to reason that the front office will be active in making trades. Darren Wolfson has mentioned on Twitter that the trade market is the team's focus, and the groundwork for any deal could be months in the making. The Twins have holes in the rotation and center field, where some intriguing options could be available from other organizations.

A year ago, there were rumblings of a Luis Arraez swap to the Miami Marlins for weeks before it happened. Ultimately, the Twins landed their new ace, Pablo Lopez, but the names exchanged in that deal shifted multiple times before it eventually came to fruition. The Winter Meetings are a place for those conversations to ramp up, and while the deal may not come together during the week, many decisions can be traced back to it.

Does a Rule 5 Selection Happen?
The Twins protected four players from the Rule 5 Draft when they added Yunior Severino, Jair Camargo, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Austin Martin to their 40-man roster. Each of them should have been considered locks, but that leaves a couple of additional players exposed to the opposition. DaShawn Keirsey played at a high level during 2023 and looked the part of a big-league outfielder for the St. Paul Saints. Maybe Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, or Andrew Bechtold interests a team.

Conversely, the Twins could add a player, especially if suppressing payroll is a focal point. A Rule 5 addition would come with cost certainty, and hitting on a pre-arb player would also have future ramifications regarding raises and team control. There don’t seem to be many straightforward paths for a player to stick all year with Minnesota, but an extra bullpen arm or utility player might be worthwhile. Not every player turns into Johan Santana, but finding another Ryan Pressly or your version of Akil Baddoo, Tyler Wells, or someone similar would be a boost.

What Happens to the Competition?
So far, the most aggressive team in the AL Central has been the Detroit Tigers. They locked up former Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda on a two-year deal. A.J. Hinch’s club has young talent like Riley Greene, Tarik Skubal, and Spencer Torkelson. They have money to spend, with Miguel Cabrera’s deal also coming off the books. How much do the Tigers continue to spend, and are they hesitant to go big after getting burned by Javier Baez?

Expect a selloff to happen for the Chicago White Sox, and a transition in the clubhouse seems logical there. Where does their former shortstop Tim Anderson end up, and how much belief is there that he can bounce back? They did bring in Paul DeJong to take over the position, but will they also be replacing Luis Robert or Dylan Cease after dealing either player for a prospect haul?

Cleveland remains a wild card, in that they are twisting in the wind. Jose Ramirez isn’t going anywhere, but what type of talent will he have around him? Will the Guardians spend any money, or will they be focused on finding another Kyle Manzardo-type return from someone interested in Shane Bieber?

Does Ohtani Choose the Central?
The greatest free agent in Major League Baseball history will sign a contract this offseason, but for how much and where Shohei Ohtani lands remains to be seen. He has been linked heavily to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Angels say they’ll try to keep him. Maybe the San Francisco Giants make sense, and are the Seattle Mariners being truthful in opting out of his courtship? There has been talk of the Blue Jays wanting to bring Ohtani north of the border, but the Texas Rangers could have interest in bringing him down south. We haven’t heard any links to the AL Central, and it seems unlikely for him to wind up in the Midwest, but it would send shockwaves to see the dual-threat talent playing routinely against the Twins for the next decade.

What are you most interested in seeing take place during the Winter Meetings? What are you hoping the Minnesota Twins do? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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[Doctor Gast]

I hope they incorporate the robo ump & Twins have serious talks with MIA & SEA. The draft selection won't have quite as much impact as last couple of years but it'll be interesting

[tony&rodney]

I hope the Twins (Falvey & squad) put ideas and proposals out to any number of teams in search of potentially mutually beneficial transactions. All of Seattle, Miami, Milwaukee, San Diego, and the Dodgers among others need to be entertained at cocktail hours. 

I hope the Twins avoid losing anyone in the Rule 5 Draft and bring back all of Keirsey Jr., Pratto, Helman, and Bechtold. Minor league depth is important and not very costly. All four of those guys could be signed in total for less than Willi Castro (who I like a ton).

[Matthew Trueblood]

59 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I hope the Twins (Falvey & squad) put ideas and proposals out to any number of teams in search of potentially mutually beneficial transactions. All of Seattle, Miami, Milwaukee, San Diego, and the Dodgers among others need to be entertained at cocktail hours. 

I hope the Twins avoid losing anyone in the Rule 5 Draft and bring back all of Keirsey Jr., Pratto, Helman, and Bechtold. Minor league depth is important and not very costly. All four of those guys could be signed in total for less than Willi Castro (who I like a ton).

I hadn't thought of the Dodgers as a natural trade partner. Who do you envision being involved, on either side, in such a deal? I'm interested..

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I hope they incorporate the robo ump & Twins have serious talks with MIA & SEA. The draft selection won't have quite as much impact as last couple of years but it'll be interesting

I think MLB is leaning more towards the challenge system then robo-umps.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

I hope the Twins avoid losing anyone in the Rule 5 Draft and bring back all of Keirsey Jr., Pratto, Helman, and Bechtold. Minor league depth is important and not very costly. All four of those guys could be signed in total for less than Willi Castro (who I like a ton).

They just brought back Henriquez and Moran on minor league deals.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I think MLB is leaning more towards the challenge system then robo-umps.

I think you're right but a challenge system is more disruptive & prefer robo ump. 

[Brandon]

I think the Twins made their big moves for the winter meetings.  They signed Moran to a 2 year minor league deal and Rodriguez to a 1 year minor league deal.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

I think MLB is leaning more towards the challenge system then robo-umps.

The challenge system is good because it is really quick - less than 10 seconds. Replays can take up to 10 minutes.

[Blyleven2011]

They better start making some concrete plans and get creative to acquire at least one quality starter ...

The FO needs to generate some enthusiasm before Twins fest  ...

[Blyleven2011]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

I think MLB is leaning more towards the challenge system then robo-umps.

Something is better than the eyes a umpire has ...

[Fatbat]

Looks like the Marlins are looking for pitching depth so we wont be dealing with them. Is it possible to get a deal done for Glasnow without selling the farm? What would it take? 
I got a bad feeling they will take a flyer on a rule 5 guy. Its been a minute since their last bad decision so why not try a little harder. 
Doing nothing/no harm could be their best case scenario . 

[TopGunn#22]

That's interesting Fatbat.  Even with Alcantara set to miss all of 2024 I have them with:  Luzardo, Perez, Garrett, Rogers, Cabrera, Max Meyer, Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers.  That's 8 guys who enter the 2024 season healthy and who could be SP.  The first six are as good as anybody with the exception of Seattle.  

The Twins M.O. has always been to wait out the FA market.  I think their primary focus is on a trade.  They want to move payroll (Polanco, Kepler, Vasquez, Farmer) and these four guys have value to the right teams.  I just hope that a Giolito or Bauer is still available when they tale the FA plunge.  Wacha or Miley might be as well. 

The entire FA landscape is waiting on the Shohei Ohtani situation.  He's such a guaranteed box office that whoever signs him is looking at sellout after sellout.  Everyone thinks he'll go to the Dodgers, and he very likely will.  But consider this:  Whoever signs him gets a DH only for the first year of the contract.  Assume he gets 10 years and $500 million ($50 million per year). 

That's practically enough to add Yamamoto and Blake Snell to a rotation.  And a team like the Dodgers needs at least two big impact free agent SP.  So he's a DH only for the first year.  When he's theoretically ready to pitch in 2025 how many of those remaining 9 seasons will he pitch AND hit?  I don't think it's more than 4. 

When a team acquires Ohtani they must re-set their pitching staff to a 6-man rotation.  The Angels did this, yet Ohtani still needs Tommy-John surgery.  That's why I think he only pitches 4 or 5 of the 10 year contract.  He's a wonderfully talented player, but with him comes challenges with how you handle him and how that affects the rest of the team.  Lots of teams use the DH as a way to rotate players in to give them a pseudo day off.  

It would help immensely if Ohtani played a corner OF position, and maybe that will happen once he's done pitching.  But it's a challenge.  The team that I think he fits best with is the Mariners.  But they just announced they wouldn't be in the sweepstakes.  But Seattle has plenty of pitchers, even if they traded one, to have not just the best rotation in all of baseball but the best SIX-man rotation.  Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, R. Ray, Woo, Miller plus Marco Gonzalez.  What the Mariners need more than anything is HITTING.  But 'OH" can OHTANI HIT !  (pun intended).   And the Mariners have enough young, affordable pitching (Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, Miller) that they could make it work for a few years.  

It just makes too much sense for the Mariners, and even if both Yamamoto and hometown kid Blake Snell have stated their desire they would like to pitch for Seattle, they can't hit like Ohtani and the Mariners need offense.  It's why we as Twins fans cling to the hope that we could trade Polanco, Kepler, Miranda, Julien, Lee, whatever, to Seattle to get one of their pitchers. 

The only other thing I could see is Seattle signing one of Yamamoto or Snell and make a trade with the Padres for Soto.  They have their big bat (they sign him to an extension to keep him in Seattle) and their pitching staff is loaded for years to come.  In any scenario this requires Seattle to spend BIG.  But I think they can make it work and could be a very tough team team for years to come.  Remember, this was a team with A-Rod, Griffey Jr, and Randy Johnson (and Edgar Martinez as well).  Their fans, even though there have been some lean years, are accustomed to Star Power.   

[harmony55]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

That's interesting Fatbat.  Even with Alcantara set to miss all of 2024 I have them with:  Luzardo, Perez, Garrett, Rogers, Cabrera, Max Meyer, Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers.  That's 8 guys who enter the 2024 season healthy and who could be SP.  The first six are as good as anybody with the exception of Seattle.  

The Twins M.O. has always been to wait out the FA market.  I think their primary focus is on a trade.  They want to move payroll (Polanco, Kepler, Vasquez, Farmer) and these four guys have value to the right teams.  I just hope that a Giolito or Bauer is still available when they tale the FA plunge.  Wacha or Miley might be as well. 

The entire FA landscape is waiting on the Shohei Ohtani situation.  He's such a guaranteed box office that whoever signs him is looking at sellout after sellout.  Everyone thinks he'll go to the Dodgers, and he very likely will.  But consider this:  Whoever signs him gets a DH only for the first year of the contract.  Assume he gets 10 years and $500 million ($50 million per year). 

That's practically enough to add Yamamoto and Blake Snell to a rotation.  And a team like the Dodgers needs at least two big impact free agent SP.  So he's a DH only for the first year.  When he's theoretically ready to pitch in 2025 how many of those remaining 9 seasons will he pitch AND hit?  I don't think it's more than 4. 

When a team acquires Ohtani they must re-set their pitching staff to a 6-man rotation.  The Angels did this, yet Ohtani still needs Tommy-John surgery.  That's why I think he only pitches 4 or 5 of the 10 year contract.  He's a wonderfully talented player, but with him comes challenges with how you handle him and how that affects the rest of the team.  Lots of teams use the DH as a way to rotate players in to give them a pseudo day off.  

It would help immensely if Ohtani played a corner OF position, and maybe that will happen once he's done pitching.  But it's a challenge.  The team that I think he fits best with is the Mariners.  But they just announced they wouldn't be in the sweepstakes.  But Seattle has plenty of pitchers, even if they traded one, to have not just the best rotation in all of baseball but the best SIX-man rotation.  Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, R. Ray, Woo, Miller plus Marco Gonzalez.  What the Mariners need more than anything is HITTING.  But 'OH" can OHTANI HIT !  (pun intended).   And the Mariners have enough young, affordable pitching (Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, Miller) that they could make it work for a few years.  

It just makes too much sense for the Mariners, and even if both Yamamoto and hometown kid Blake Snell have stated their desire they would like to pitch for Seattle, they can't hit like Ohtani and the Mariners need offense.  It's why we as Twins fans cling to the hope that we could trade Polanco, Kepler, Miranda, Julien, Lee, whatever, to Seattle to get one of their pitchers. 

The only other thing I could see is Seattle signing one of Yamamoto or Snell and make a trade with the Padres for Soto.  They have their big bat (they sign him to an extension to keep him in Seattle) and their pitching staff is loaded for years to come.  In any scenario this requires Seattle to spend BIG.  But I think they can make it work and could be a very tough team team for years to come.  Remember, this was a team with A-Rod, Griffey Jr, and Randy Johnson (and Edgar Martinez as well).  Their fans, even though there have been some lean years, are accustomed to Star Power.   

Fun fact: Over the past two seasons Pablo Lopez and Logan Gilbert have each posted 6.2 bWAR in 64 starts, Lopez over 374 innings and Gilbert over 376.1 innings.

Lopez holds the edge over Gilbert in fWAR, 7.3 to 6.3.

[saviking]

Not looking for anything to happen until January so I don't get disappointed .. lol