The Twins Daily Table Setter - December 1, 2023

[Matthew Trueblood]

Hey! Welcome to what we're testing as a daily feature here at Twins, er, Daily. Let's get the day started strong.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

The Winter Meetings are right around the corner, and some free agents have found new homes. So far, though, the Twins haven't waded into the hot stove action. Let's kick around a few things that are going on.

Good News is No News
Thursday brought the very non-revelatory, weirdly non-reassuring news that the Twins expect to add at least one starting pitcher this winter, and that they're more likely to acquire someone to compete with Louie Varland at the back end of the rotation than to try to replace Sonny Gray (i.e., add a top-end starter). That's concrete information, but it's also so negotiable as to be negligible.

It can't possibly surprise any of us, by now, to hear the Twins managing expectations around who they'll land for the rotation. Even as we kick around scenarios in which the Twins jump in on Corbin Burnes (projected to earn $15-16 million in 2024 via arbitration) or Tyler Glasnow (under contract for $25 million), we have to grapple with the reality that the team's bizarrely self-confessed payroll limitations matter just as much when trying to trade for a starter as when trying to sign one. As yesterday's reports also affirmed, the front office sure is putting a lot of eggs in Chris Paddack's basket.

Big News Out of Bushville
First of all, remember when rivalry between the titans of the coasts and we Midwesterners was properly bare-knuckled and hostile? In 1957, the New York papers just up and nicknamed Milwaukee "Bushville" ahead of their World Series showdown with the Milwaukee team there. Wild times.

Anyway, the Brewers made the biggest waves in MLB Thursday, signing elite prospect Jackson Chourio to an eight-year deal that could stretch to 10, guaranteeing him $80 million and securing his services for the entirety of his 20s. This is a huge deal for that team, but it's also sent some ripples out to other clubs. For instance, could the Brewers now be a better trade partner for the Twins, who need right-handed outfield help? Or, could this be a model for an eventual Emmanuel Rodriguez extension, if he has the season for which we're all hoping in 2024?

Can the Twins Level Up Their Selective Aggression in 2024?
Some of the best recent research work done in the public baseball analysis sphere has been Robert Orr's development of a metric called SEAGER--Selective Aggressive Engagement Rate, and yes it's a backronym crafted around its best practitioner--to better define the skill of attacking hittable pitches and matching swing rate to situational utility of swinging, based on count and pitch location. If you subscribe to Baseball Prospectus, you can read about it in detail here, but for everyone else, here's an interesting thing: the Twins ranked eighth in team SEAGER in 2023.

I don't think that neatly matches most of our perceptions. Back in October, I wrote about how the team's sky-high strikeout rate was an outgrowth of their refusal to change their approach much based on the count. Yet, as Rocco Baldelli said in that article, the team seems to get real value out of knowing the zone and expanding it only when a particular hitter knows they can handle bad balls in a particular place.

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Can the Twins' rotation be good enough to win the AL Central in 2024 without reinforcing the top or middle of that corps? What has your mental gears whirring when it comes to the Chourio extension? And how can the Twins continue to adjust their approach at the plate to better realize their full potential? The table is set. Leave a comment; let's feast.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't see the value of adding a backend starter to the rotation. I just don't. Maybe as the 2nd guy they would add, but they SHOULD be shooting to add someone who they would be comfortable starting in a playoff game. I don't know what that looks like, and it doesn't have to be a NAME guy, but creativity will be important compared to settling.

[EGFTShaw]

I agree 107% with @Cory Engelhardt wrote.

I see NO value in bringing in back of the end rotation guy.  None.  Use this for our top minor league pitchers.

I understand the alleged, (and I say alleged because it is short sighted given the contracts the Twins have on the hooks after 24 and 25 seasons), rationale for downsizing our payroll, but we just finished with the best we have in over the past 20 years.

IRON HOT
STRIKE
WHILE

I don't know if there is a deal to be made, but if this notion of going after a backend guy is real and not a ruse, then the Twins are going to continue to be midlevel team and never advance out this self-imposed cage.

[Karbo]

I have been saying all along that this rotation as is should be good enough to win the division. Adding another 4-5 pitcher would only be for backup should someone go down. I don't count on Paddock for more than 150 innings, and we know that Ober is a concern as far as IP go. Ryan needs to step up a bit in his 3rd full season also. I would much prefer a 2-3 type pitcher, but I think that will be a trade if possible. I really can't see this FO spending more than about 10 mil for another starter.

[Dman]

If 5th starter is their high hope then I am even more pissed they didn't just get Kenta back on that reasonable two year deal.  They better find someone better than Maeda or they look like idiots IMO.

 

[mikelink45]

I know you are looking for this to a continuing section of TD and I am for it.  I am more interested in what is happening than speculating on what we can fantasize happening.  Some good summaries here and I am also happy when we look in on the other teams.  I think we better start looking at Detroit for example - signing Maeda, and Mark Canha.

[JD-TWINS]

My impression is Twins are at $113M if they trade Polanco & keep all the arbitration guys.

Offensively they are reasonable as is, with Lee & Martin coming by July…..,,at least one of them.

Pitching is reasonable with Varland as 5th starter but no depth. Lost Pagan, Maeda, & Gray.

To get better & stay in budget……..sign Lugo as FA ($13M) …….trade for Ace Reliever Devin Williams to use in 8th inning or 9th as needed for next 2 years ($6.25M) ……that’s $132M.

To change up the look, while iron is hot, trade Kepler & reduce to $122M & then sign Taylor ($6M) or Duvall ($7.5m) for depth in OF.

[Doctor Gast]

Oh! NO! more confirmation that this FO is reverting back to their old ways. This is a time to continue to look for trades to minimize payrole not to trade away Kepler, Polanco, Farmer & Vazguez (to cut payrole) & create a big hole only throwing $ away on FAs  thinking that they will fill gaps but won't. Not this nightmare again.

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I know you are looking for this to a continuing section of TD and I am for it.  I am more interested in what is happening than speculating on what we can fantasize happening.  Some good summaries here and I am also happy when we look in on the other teams.  I think we better start looking at Detroit for example - signing Maeda, and Mark Canha.

Thanks for the feedback, Mike! Love these thoughts. Yeah, I definitely think this can be a place where we talk a bit about what else is going on in the league, especially when it can have anything to do with the Twins.

[Matthew Trueblood]

30 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

My impression is Twins are at $113M if they trade Polanco & keep all the arbitration guys.

Offensively they are reasonable as is, with Lee & Martin coming by July…..,,at least one of them.

Pitching is reasonable with Varland as 5th starter but no depth. Lost Pagan, Maeda, & Gray.

To get better & stay in budget……..sign Lugo as FA ($13M) …….trade for Ace Reliever Devin Williams to use in 8th inning or 9th as needed for next 2 years ($6.25M) ……that’s $132M.

To change up the look, while iron is hot, trade Kepler & reduce to $122M & then sign Taylor ($6M) or Duvall ($7.5m) for depth in OF.

I think the price tag on a Williams trade right now would make your head spin. But you know I love Lugo as a fit for them, and Duvall is another great idea.

[ashbury]

An ace would be nice, a mid-rotation arm should be the aim, but my minimum standard is for acquiring someone who can be reasonably forecast to do better than Louis Varland's 2023 in the majors.  That allows Louis to start 2024 at St Paul, and find whatever additional tweaks will let him dominate at AAA, which he didn't do in 2023 either.  And while he works at his development, we have someone better to hold his place. 

Not to mention, you can't get through a season with 5 starters anyway.

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't see the value of adding a backend starter to the rotation. I just don't. Maybe as the 2nd guy they would add, but they SHOULD be shooting to add someone who they would be comfortable starting in a playoff game. I don't know what that looks like, and it doesn't have to be a NAME guy, but creativity will be important compared to settling.

I hear you on that, but I'd also say, we've seen this play from the Twins FO before. They like to start the winter by setting the floor and working on establishing depth, and then they try to be very opportunistic later in the offseason, when bigger stuff can shake loose or prices can drop, unexpectedly. So maybe they sign that 5th/6th starter this month, but then in mid-January, we get a surprise boost for the top half of the unit. As I wrote above, though: the payroll ceiling could thwart all that.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I hear you on that, but I'd also say, we've seen this play from the Twins FO before. They like to start the winter by setting the floor and working on establishing depth, and then they try to be very opportunistic later in the offseason, when bigger stuff can shake loose or prices can drop, unexpectedly. So maybe they sign that 5th/6th starter this month, but then in mid-January, we get a surprise boost for the top half of the unit. As I wrote above, though: the payroll ceiling could thwart all that.

I'm good with that. The hurry-up-and-wait of the start of the offseason takes forever. It feels like December and January, as far as baseball offseason goes, lasts 4 years :) But yeah, hard to have too much hand-wringing on roster until the offseason is actually over. But yeah, I admit, I wish moves could be made NOW :)

[Matthew Trueblood]

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'm good with that. The hurry-up-and-wait of the start of the offseason takes forever. It feels like December and January, as far as baseball offseason goes, lasts 4 years :) But yeah, hard to have too much hand-wringing on roster until the offseason is actually over. But yeah, I admit, I wish moves could be made NOW :)

I think the baseball offseason is just a terrible fit for the Twitter Era, right? Or maybe it's an ok one, but people just need to be more patient. We get soooo many rumors before real action happens, whereas in capped sports, the action almost comes first. (Or, in reality, the rumors start early in their prior seasons.) I actually kind of like it, but I know I'm wired differently than most in this regard. It's tough to find the balance point of enjoying the coverage of who might do what, while not agonizing over it or expecting a move at any given time. It's a slow burn. Most people, in 2023, do not like a slow burn.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I think the baseball offseason is just a terrible fit for the Twitter Era, right? Or maybe it's an ok one, but people just need to be more patient. We get soooo many rumors before real action happens, whereas in capped sports, the action almost comes first. (Or, in reality, the rumors start early in their prior seasons.) I actually kind of like it, but I know I'm wired differently than most in this regard. It's tough to find the balance point of enjoying the coverage of who might do what, while not agonizing over it or expecting a move at any given time. It's a slow burn. Most people, in 2023, do not like a slow burn.

Matthew bragging over here about not needing to check social media 25 hours a day :)

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Back in October, I wrote about how the team's sky-high strikeout rate was an outgrowth of their refusal to change their approach much based on the count. Yet, as Rocco Baldelli said in that article, the team seems to get real value out of knowing the zone and expanding it only when a particular hitter knows they can handle bad balls in a particular place.

No team does well at the plate when there are two strikes on the batter.  OPS across the majors was .734, but once 2 strikes happen the OPS drops to .523 (in large part because, yes, that's when strikeouts can happen).  It's not as if a change in approach with two strikes will turn our hitters into Babe Ruth - the Braves led the majors in two-strike OPS at .596.

The Twins' two-strike results in 2023 were under a double whammy.  First, they were near the league bottom in OPS at .482.  So yes, doing more like the Braves, or even just reaching league norms, would help some.  I notice for instance a large dropoff in HR rank with two strikes, compared to their lofty HR total overall.

And second, they led the majors in plate appearances that reached two strikes.  You're not going to really succeed, operating at a disadvantage more often than your opposition.

So, they were in the unfavorable situation too often, and did badly when there.  Fix either, and there'll be some improvement.  Fix both, and they might really unlock something.

(They've taken one good step by parting ways with Joey Gallo, who OPSed a mighty .406 with two strikes.  He batted .087 in those situation. Cut the Mendoza line in half, and he was still under that.)

[awmonahan]

Unless I misunderstand what they mean by back end of the rotation, I think this step is a waste of time. Couldn't we just plug SWR in there as an innings eater with some upside? Are we projected to be short on innings at both AAA and the MLB level? Why use valuable time, at the start of a rough off-season, on a fifth starter?

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

No team does well at the plate when there are two strikes on the batter.  OPS across the majors was .734, but once 2 strikes happen the OPS drops to .523 (in large part because, yes, that's when strikeouts can happen).  It's not as if a change in approach with two strikes will turn our hitters into Babe Ruth - the Braves led the majors in two-strike OPS at .596.

The Twins' two-strike results in 2023 were under a double whammy.  First, they were near the league bottom in OPS at .482.  So yes, doing more like the Braves, or even just reaching league norms, would help some.  I notice for instance a large dropoff in HR rank with two strikes, compared to their lofty HR total overall.

And second, they led the majors in plate appearances that reached two strikes.  You're not going to really succeed, operating at a disadvantage more often than your opposition.

So, they were in the unfavorable situation too often, and did badly when there.  Fix either, and there'll be some improvement.  Fix both, and they might really unlock something.

(They've taken one good step by parting ways with Joey Gallo, who OPSed a mighty .406 with two strikes.  He batted .087 in those situation. Cut the Mendoza line in half, and he was still under that.)

I'm not sure it'll be easy to change that, but it's clearly something they should be thinking about going into spring training. The team approach needs to be (slightly, but surely) tweaked.

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, awmonahan said:

Unless I misunderstand what they mean by back end of the rotation, I think this step is a waste of time. Couldn't we just plug SWR in there as an innings eater with some upside? Are we projected to be short on innings at both AAA and the MLB level? Why use valuable time, at the start of a rough off-season, on a fifth starter?

You're onto something, although maybe not what you think. Haha. Consider what this report implies about their level of confidence in SWR, for sure.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

25 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

You're onto something, although maybe not what you think. Haha. Consider what this report implies about their level of confidence in SWR, for sure.

I’m not an SWR hater or fan, but I do know he needs to get around to putting it all together to live up to the hype sooner rather than later. I’m patient, but. . . .

All that being said, bringing a pitcher up too soon and letting him get shelled is probably more damaging to him than it is to a hitter who is overmatched for a while. So in that respect I don’t want the Twins to just dump him in the rotation either.  

The biggest order of business has to be to get the TV contract figured out.  That will answer some of the uncertainty more than any other speculation will..  

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I'm not sure it'll be easy to change that, but it's clearly something they should be thinking about going into spring training. The team approach needs to be (slightly, but surely) tweaked.

Not only that, but they have to be careful how they tweak it.  To avoid getting into two-strike counts at all, they could opt to go for less power (let's say), and then end up with an offense like Cleveland or Washington had this year - low strikeouts, but not a lot of runs scored despite that advantage. CLE and WAS had decent batting averages but low walk rates so their OBPs actually were below league average and they neither one hit with much power.  The difficult dilemma is that if you cut down the strikeouts the wrong way, you apparently might cut down on walks and power at the same time, and then that's questionable progress.

The solution is to have low strikeouts combined with good OBP and SLG like Houston and Atlanta did.  Yes, get some good hitters.  Why didn't somebody in the Twins FO think of this before?

As you said, not sure how easy it'll actually be.  That's why the on field staff gets paid the big bucks.

[tony&rodney]

The Price for #5/6 starters and reclamation projects has been pretty much set at $12-13 million. Wacha might be a nice get as ould Giolito, but they will be pricier than the floor stated above. I'm ok with a gamble on our guys but a trade seems necessary at some point. Varland could be the guy to fill innings but Paddack should be looked at as a 100-120 innings at max guy.

A signing of Hoskins seems to rich but perhaps a 3/$45M deal can be managed for Gurriel Jr. The Twins have some difficult decisions to make on personell. Lewis, Lee, Julien, Farmer, Polanco, Martin is a pile for two positions. There will be opportunities for gamble trades.

Milwaukee is in a tenuous position with their team. Signing Jackson Chourio is part gamble and part public relations as they attempt to maintain their competitive position in the face of some odds: losing Woodruff and having tough calls to make on Adames and Burnes. Minnesota is going to wait on any deals. Jose Miranda seemed like a solid guy to play 150+ games every year and rake, despite a weak glove. His shoulder injury and the travails of Royce Lewis might curb the enthusiasm needed to jump with both feet into a Chourio type signing. I like your example of Emmanuel Rodriguez. He will give the Twins a good idea of his ability to adjust this coming summer. It seems like he can just play smash ball with that super quick wand whenever he makes the decision to focus, yet the competition and need to stay locked in at the plate grows dramatically in AA & AAA. Who knows what he is up to this winter? 

I like the Twins team as is but the team as it stands cannot suffer injuries to the pitching staff which wakes Falvey up at 3am.