The Twins Daily Table Setter - December 1, 2023

I don't see the value of adding a backend starter to the rotation. I just don't. Maybe as the 2nd guy they would add, but they SHOULD be shooting to add someone who they would be comfortable starting in a playoff game. I don't know what that looks like, and it doesn't have to be a NAME guy, but creativity will be important compared to settling.

I have been saying all along that this rotation as is should be good enough to win the division. Adding another 4-5 pitcher would only be for backup should someone go down. I don't count on Paddock for more than 150 innings, and we know that Ober is a concern as far as IP go. Ryan needs to step up a bit in his 3rd full season also. I would much prefer a 2-3 type pitcher, but I think that will be a trade if possible. I really can't see this FO spending more than about 10 mil for another starter.

If 5th starter is their high hope then I am even more pissed they didn't just get Kenta back on that reasonable two year deal.  They better find someone better than Maeda or they look like idiots IMO.

An ace would be nice, a mid-rotation arm should be the aim, but my minimum standard is for acquiring someone who can be reasonably forecast to do better than Louis Varland's 2023 in the majors.  That allows Louis to start 2024 at St Paul, and find whatever additional tweaks will let him dominate at AAA, which he didn't do in 2023 either.  And while he works at his development, we have someone better to hold his place. 

Not to mention, you can't get through a season with 5 starters anyway.

4 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I hear you on that, but I'd also say, we've seen this play from the Twins FO before. They like to start the winter by setting the floor and working on establishing depth, and then they try to be very opportunistic later in the offseason, when bigger stuff can shake loose or prices can drop, unexpectedly. So maybe they sign that 5th/6th starter this month, but then in mid-January, we get a surprise boost for the top half of the unit. As I wrote above, though: the payroll ceiling could thwart all that.

I'm good with that. The hurry-up-and-wait of the start of the offseason takes forever. It feels like December and January, as far as baseball offseason goes, lasts 4 years :) But yeah, hard to have too much hand-wringing on roster until the offseason is actually over. But yeah, I admit, I wish moves could be made NOW :)

4 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I think the baseball offseason is just a terrible fit for the Twitter Era, right? Or maybe it's an ok one, but people just need to be more patient. We get soooo many rumors before real action happens, whereas in capped sports, the action almost comes first. (Or, in reality, the rumors start early in their prior seasons.) I actually kind of like it, but I know I'm wired differently than most in this regard. It's tough to find the balance point of enjoying the coverage of who might do what, while not agonizing over it or expecting a move at any given time. It's a slow burn. Most people, in 2023, do not like a slow burn.

Matthew bragging over here about not needing to check social media 25 hours a day :)

3 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Back in October, I wrote about how the team's sky-high strikeout rate was an outgrowth of their refusal to change their approach much based on the count. Yet, as Rocco Baldelli said in that article, the team seems to get real value out of knowing the zone and expanding it only when a particular hitter knows they can handle bad balls in a particular place.

No team does well at the plate when there are two strikes on the batter.  OPS across the majors was .734, but once 2 strikes happen the OPS drops to .523 (in large part because, yes, that's when strikeouts can happen).  It's not as if a change in approach with two strikes will turn our hitters into Babe Ruth - the Braves led the majors in two-strike OPS at .596.

The Twins' two-strike results in 2023 were under a double whammy.  First, they were near the league bottom in OPS at .482.  So yes, doing more like the Braves, or even just reaching league norms, would help some.  I notice for instance a large dropoff in HR rank with two strikes, compared to their lofty HR total overall.

And second, they led the majors in plate appearances that reached two strikes.  You're not going to really succeed, operating at a disadvantage more often than your opposition.

So, they were in the unfavorable situation too often, and did badly when there.  Fix either, and there'll be some improvement.  Fix both, and they might really unlock something.

(They've taken one good step by parting ways with Joey Gallo, who OPSed a mighty .406 with two strikes.  He batted .087 in those situation. Cut the Mendoza line in half, and he was still under that.)

25 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

You're onto something, although maybe not what you think. Haha. Consider what this report implies about their level of confidence in SWR, for sure.

I’m not an SWR hater or fan, but I do know he needs to get around to putting it all together to live up to the hype sooner rather than later. I’m patient, but. . . .

All that being said, bringing a pitcher up too soon and letting him get shelled is probably more damaging to him than it is to a hitter who is overmatched for a while. So in that respect I don’t want the Twins to just dump him in the rotation either.  

The biggest order of business has to be to get the TV contract figured out.  That will answer some of the uncertainty more than any other speculation will..  

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I'm not sure it'll be easy to change that, but it's clearly something they should be thinking about going into spring training. The team approach needs to be (slightly, but surely) tweaked.

Not only that, but they have to be careful how they tweak it.  To avoid getting into two-strike counts at all, they could opt to go for less power (let's say), and then end up with an offense like Cleveland or Washington had this year - low strikeouts, but not a lot of runs scored despite that advantage. CLE and WAS had decent batting averages but low walk rates so their OBPs actually were below league average and they neither one hit with much power.  The difficult dilemma is that if you cut down the strikeouts the wrong way, you apparently might cut down on walks and power at the same time, and then that's questionable progress.

The solution is to have low strikeouts combined with good OBP and SLG like Houston and Atlanta did.  Yes, get some good hitters.  Why didn't somebody in the Twins FO think of this before?

As you said, not sure how easy it'll actually be.  That's why the on field staff gets paid the big bucks.