Internal Options to Replace Sonny Gray

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Brandon said:

If Gray finds he would prefer to be here and is willing to sign a 3 year deal at just under market value.  The Twins should try to find a way to sign him.  The Twins need to find a starter anyways for depth.  If for no other reason.  Our current rotation has no contingency.  Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack.  In case of injury we have Festa and Woods-Richardson.  That’s a big drop in ready and available talent.  The initial starting 5 is solid.  
 

The real question is what will the Twins get in TV revenue next season and will that deal come together in time for the Twins to be able to sign a good pitcher. Varland or Paddack could start the season in the pen as a multi inning reliever/ 6th starter in waiting if we are able to resign Gray and that will do wonders for our depth in the rotation.  
The path to resigning Gray comes down to trading Polanco and the Twins securing revenue from TV and The Twins pre selling lots of tickets after their playoff wins.  While there is a TV revenue issue,  the Twins did get a nice windfall from their 4 home playoff games with Im sure 160,000 people in attendance for what is likely 20-30k in extra revenue and an extra 5-10 million in profit that can go back into payroll.  While at this point it doesn’t seem like we can resign Gray.  It’s not too often the Twins find 2 aces that want to be here.  I hope they find a way to make it happen.  The good news is if we can’t find a way to afford Gray,  we can get by with a strong 6th and 7th starter find.  
 

I’d offer Gray a 2 year deal for $26M/year…….a Team option for year 3 at $26M or a $4M buyout. This gives him a fair market offer for a 34 year old. Also, if he pitches well he gets a 3rd year or a goodbye present if $4M.

That’s the simple OUT but I would prefer that same/similar deal offered to Jordan Montgomery of the Rangers. The Rangers have $ tied up in deGrom - Scherzer - Heaney - Eovaldi for ‘24 & they need bullpen help. Montgomery is a FA in a couple weeks. Would be good to get his experience and a left hander for our staff!!

We could resign Maeda and let him be our fill the gaps starter & go with Lopez - Varland - Ryan - Ober - Paddack for our base staff.

I understand completely the capability and great consistency that Gray brought to the Twins this year. The bottom line, we won only about 40+% of the games Gray started. If Varland can throw 30 starts and go 11–11 and we win 4 of his other 8 starts, we are ahead of the results we had with Gray this year. I think this is realistic - very realistic. Our team ERA will be higher - we may use a few more bullpen innings but the W-L’s could actually improve without Gray.

Not saying Gray didn’t pitch well - saying that his talent & stats didn’t equate to a high win % in the games he started, whether or not he got a decision.

Gray - Mahle - Maeda - Polanco - Gallo - the salary relief is $50M with these guys gone……….plenty of $ to pick up Montgomery or like pitcher & lower annual spending.

 

[IaBeanCounter]

How many wins are expected with replacement value starter?  Gray suffered through lack of run support and blown saves, so the Twins record when he started was 14-18 (43.75% win percentage).   Kuechel & Varland combined to go 8-8 in their starts.   Of our primary starters, other than Gray, the  Twins winning percent in their starts ranged from 50.00% for Maeda to 61.54% for Ober.   For reference the Yankees won almost 70% of Gerrit Cole's starts. 

I hope that Gray will accept a QO, but I think that is a long shot.   The Twins were 7-43 when scoring 2 runs or less, which only occurred 14 times after the AS break, which corresponded with the reduction in ABs for Buxton and Gallo (accounted for 15.0% of ABs prior to AS break and 5.3% after AS break.  During the regular season, I believe the Twins will easily by able to make up for Gray's absence with just fewer empty ABs and a better bullpen.  The post season will be a different story in that Gray threw one gem and couldn't make up for Kirilloff's error in the second game.

+-- 

[Fatbat]

I would hope to get a no on the QO. We get the draft pick and the Maeda signs a 2 yr deal with a team option on year 3.  He gets you 1.5WAR both years as a 24 start guy at the back end of the rotation. Paddock will be lights out next year in his 28 starts. I honestly think there will only be 3 teams going after Gray and he may not be happy about the offers he gets. Its will be interesting if Kuekel signs a minor league deal with us. He seems to really like it around here. A few spot starts from the guys across the river won’t hurt much if we can kill the other elephant in the room. All the strike out!!

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’d offer Gray a 2 year deal for $26M/year…….a Team option for year 3 at $26M or a $4M buyout. This gives him a fair market offer for a 34 year old. Also, if he pitches well he gets a 3rd year or a goodbye present if $4M.

That is not a fair market offer. Gray should be able to get $100M if he only cares about money. Someone will guarantee 3 years $75M.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

That is not a fair market offer. Gray should be able to get $100M if he only cares about money. Someone will guarantee 3 years $75M.

Probably right - can’t hurt to see if the offer might fly. I don’t think his upside from here on out matches what we might get for $75M over 3 years. This year was most innings pitched for 8 years……he’s soon to be 34.

Qualifying offer and then gaining a first round pick probably makes most sense.

[Brandon]

13 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Probably right - can’t hurt to see if the offer might fly. I don’t think his upside from here on out matches what we might get for $75M over 3 years. This year was most innings pitched for 8 years……he’s soon to be 34.

Qualifying offer and then gaining a first round pick probably makes most sense.

I think the expectation of a 3 year contract would be between 400-550 innings.  Anything more is bonus.  But if he is around the 400 mark, that wouldn’t be surprising either as that would likely mean he spends some time on the DL but not too much that he doesn’t contribute either.  He seems a pitcher more susceptible to minor injuries than to TJ surgery.  Though time will tell.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

10 hours ago, Karbo said:

I don't understand why so many want to get rid of Polo. He is a good hitter and one of the best clutch hitters on this team. He has a very reasonable contract by todays standards and plays a decent 2nd base. He is known as a team player. Just the kind of player a team wants!

I don't think it's a case of wanting to get rid of Polanco.  I think it's a case of looking at the lineup and potential surplus spots where there could be some trade value, and he is a pretty logical candidate given the number of alternative infielders on the team and his potential to still be a good player for a team in need of a second baseman.

[DocBauer]

Not sure how Polanco got drawn in to this conversation, but I'll bite. Despite a bunch of $ coming off the books, there are areas of need to be addressed. Unfortunately, the lack of ANY sort of TV deal is going to leave us all...the Twins of course...I. flux with projections for 2024. I don't see room for Polanco at $10M AND Farmer at around $6.5-7M. I'd love to keep both for various reasons. I hope they can. But Lee isn't ready, but might be June or July. And he'll only be on minimum deals initially. 

I'd love Polanco back for every reason from leadership and clubhouse to being a good hitter with power who has been proven clutch. I'd put him at 1B as well as 2B and 3B and have a hell of an INF with Kirilloff...crossing fingers...and Correa and Lewis and Julien, with Castro also part of the equation. But boy would I love to see Polo AND Farmer back for next season!

I can see a scenario where Polanco is part of a trade to a team looking for a serious 2B with 2yrs of control that aren't expensive.

BUT, to the point of the OP, the Twins will offer the QO. Gray will decline, and he should. Unfortunately for him, that costs SOME value to a team wanting to sign him. I absolutely believe he wants to stay, and $ isn't the only factor in his final decision. And I'd LOVE to see him back for 2-3yrs at something like 3yrs at $66M. I'd bite the bullet at $26M 1st year, $22M the second, and $18M in his 36yo season. I'd be paying up-front, and probably over paying in his final year. 

Totally do-able and fair for both sides, even though it would be a record for a Twins FA signing. But let's be honest about 2 points:

1] Gray isn't getting younger, will be 34yo next year, and he pitched his most innings in about 6 or 7 years this season.

2] Teams like Baltimore and St Louis are on the prowl and a 4th year and another $10-20M may be on the table. 

I object the OP relegating Varland as a seeming also ran. The kid has STUFF. He had a nice debut in 2022. He was shoving really well this season before his last 3 starts when he suddenly got bit by the HR bug. I think he's got a future as a ML SP. Now, can he get better and be a #3 SP or better, it's to be determined. But he shouldn't be dismissed. He's got room to grow and improve and grow. Same with Ryan and Ober. And I was encouraged by the changes the Twins made with Paddack when he came over, and was blown away with how well he has seemed to recover from his latest surgery. 

But the Twins AREN'T going to go in to 2024 with Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober, and Varland by themselves with question marks behind them.

Frankly, with a deeper pen and an expectedly better offense, I might be OK with bringing Maeda back. With little exception, he was damn good once he got his IL break and ramped his strength and control back.

But I think the Twins might shoot a little higher. I think if Gray is just too expensive, they might look for another Gray or Lopez trade, Polanco, Larnach, other prospects, to a team looking to add to their future.

I just don't see a FA, other than Gray, except for MAYBE Eduardo Rodriguez. He's got an $18M opt out, if I read correctly. He's not tremendous, but he's LH, has talent and some success and might have another level to hit with the right team. And that might be the Twins. It was "reported" that he was part of a 3 way trade proposal between the Twins, and Detroit, and an unnamed team before the deadline that included Gray, I'm sure to the unnamed team.

What would be the cost for Rodriguez, 3yrs younger than Gray? Might he be worth 3yrs and $66M? Too low? About right? Do the Twins see something that they like that they can unlock to take him up a notch? I think he might be interesting to follow.

The Twins are going to add SOMEONE to be sure. I just don't know if it's keeping Gray, adding Rodriguez, or making a trade. If I were a betting man, I'd say a trade none of us sees happening right now.

NOTE: Athletic and Twins beat writer Disco Dan Hayes has reported that he's been in contact with former Twin Jake Odorizzi...out the whole season...who is rehabbing and trying to get "right" again and is reportedly feeling terrific and might be an interesting milb signing for the Twins as a flier to compete for a depth spot. NOT a primary signing, but as a possible surprise rebound option.

[Karbo]

20 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

These qualities also make him very tradable. Arraez fetched a valuable and needed player. If our infielder contingencies are covered Polanco (possibly as part of a package) could do the same.

I see what you're saying, but I just don't agree. I don't think they can get anyone that would be as impactful as Polo from another team. Do you have any teams in mind and what do you see as an equal or better trade?

[Karbo]

19 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He's also injured all the time (games played of 80 and 104 the last two seasons) and bad at defense. Plus, he's lost his starting infield job to Julien.

I don't think he's a bad 2nd baseman. Better than Julian defensively. IMO Julian needs to prove himself. Sure, he looked good at the plate for part of the year but I need to see him do it for a 2nd year. Besides that, IMO, Julian should be tried at 1st base. He has a little time there, and I don't think we can count on AK to stay healthy. I hope I'm wrong, but AK seems to be going down the same path as a broken Buxton.

[Karbo]

18 hours ago, Brandon said:

I don’t want to get rid of Polanco.  It’s the 10 million in his contract and the available replacement in Lee.  I prefer to keep both Gray and Polanco but would keep Gray because we don’t have the same level of replacements as we do with Polanco.

By todays standards, 10 mil is cheap.

[Major League Ready]

19 hours ago, RpR said:

And he was pulled for defense regularly so that is NOT a regular 2nd baseman; Polanco was on IL, for a lot of that time.

He is a gaping hole in defense.

Did you watch the games?  If not, take a look at Statcast.  You just can't accept that he has gotten better.  He is not a gaping hole.  That's pure hyperbole.  I bet you would be OK with Arraez at 2B and Julien is a better defender.  

 

[Tiantwindup]

21 hours ago, roger said:

I remain hopeful that Gray's replacement is Gray!

Am hopeful the Twins are talking to him these next couple weeks and are able to sign him to a nice extension.  If not, they will likely do the QO.  Have read several times over the summer that he has thought about whether he wants to continue pitching.  If that is true, would he accept the QO and pocket $20M for one more year?  Could he be at the beginning of several years where he is happy with a one year deal which would enable him annually to decide whether he wants to continue pitching or spend more time with his family and sons?

If he signs a 3 or 4 year deal at, for example, $20M/yr he still has the option to decide each year if he wants to pitch or go home. The contract does not force him to play. 

[Major League Ready]

22 hours ago, Karbo said:

I don't understand why so many want to get rid of Polo. He is a good hitter and one of the best clutch hitters on this team. He has a very reasonable contract by todays standards and plays a decent 2nd base. He is known as a team player. Just the kind of player a team wants!

Here is an outside opinion.    Most likely players from each team to be traded

We also can’t ignore that the Twins TV contract went away.  How much less in revenue does this mean?  IDK but it comes down to Julien + $10M to spend elsewhere is far better scenario than keeping Polanco especially given the financial realities. We have nowhere to play Polanco.  Lewis is clearly the better choice at 3B and it’s far easier to come up with a 1B solution.

I would invest the money in Jordan Montgomery or similar free agent.  A SP of this caliber would be a significant impact whereas Julien and Lewis are actually improvements.   This roster comes in at $132M

	Starters	SALARY
1	Pablo Lopez	8,000,000
2	Joe Ryan	740,000
3	Bailey Ober	740,000
4	Chris Paddack	2,525,000
5	Free Agent	22,500,000
	Relief Pitchers
6	Jhoan Duran	740,000
7	Griffin Jax	740,000
8	Brock Stewart	740,000
9	Louie Varland	740,000
10	Jorge Alcala	1,000,000
11	Cody Funderburk	740,000
12	Caleb Thielbar	3,300,000
13	Oliver Ortega / Jovanni Moran	740,000
	Catchers
14	Ryan Jeffers	740,000
15	Christian Vazquez	10,000,000
	Infielders
1B	Miranda / Severino	740,000
2B	Edouard Julien	740,000
3B	Royce Lewis	740,000
SS	Carlos Correa	33,333,000
	Outfielders
20	Max Kepler	10,000,000
21	Byron Buxton	15,000,000
22	Matt Wallner	740,000
23	Bader / MAT	6,000,000
	Bench
24	Willi Castro	740,000
25	Kyle Farmer	6,600,000
26	Miranda / Severino	740,000
Depth	Larnach / Prato / Gordon / Hellman	740,000
	Randy Dobnak	1,500,000
	Alex Kirilloff	740,000
	TOTAL PAYROLL	132,338,000

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I see what you're saying, but I just don't agree. I don't think they can get anyone that would be as impactful as Polo from another team. Do you have any teams in mind and what do you see as an equal or better trade?

I do not make specific trade proposals or contract proposals. I think it's ridiculous for people on this site to do that. But as I've said many times, the front office should be open to trading anyone who doesn't have a no-trade clause in his contract if they feel the trade improves the team.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

By todays standards, 10 mil is cheap.

If the Twins budget drops from 150 million to 125 million due to TV contract situation dropping Polanco and Farmer makes up 17 million of that while trying to find space in the budget for Gray’s salary and it gets difficult.  If our team budget went up to 160 million instead this would be a non issue. We keep Polanco at that point.  And I’m not saying we necessarily trade him now. It’s just one avenue to restructure team budget if prioritizing pitching.  

[Karbo]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

If the Twins budget drops from 150 million to 125 million due to TV contract situation dropping Polanco and Farmer makes up 17 million of that while trying to find space in the budget for Gray’s salary and it gets difficult.  If our team budget went up to 160 million instead this would be a non issue. We keep Polanco at that point.  And I’m not saying we necessarily trade him now. It’s just one avenue to restructure team budget if prioritizing pitching.  

According to "The Athletic" the Twins baseline payroll including arbitration with Farmer is between 110-120 mil. That includes both Kepler and Polanco. Of course that doesn't include Gray or Mahle or Gallo.

[Battle ur tail off]

On 10/16/2023 at 10:44 AM, nicksaviking said:

Last year I was more than happy filling out the rotation with the internal options, but then they traded for Lopez and it was the best move they did all year. 

They've traded for Odorizzi, Maeda, Gray, Paddock, Mahle and Lopez to be mid-to-top of the rotation arms. I don't care if it's via trade again or free agency, but it would be weird if they didn't go it again after it clearly paid off last year.

I would say this is most likely. And also the smartest thing they could do. AGAIN or system is filling out nicely with position players that look like they are ready or close to ready with pitching that looks at best end of rotation or bullpen type options. I'd love another trade to bring in another #2-3 type starter. 

If not, I think you might see them sign Mahle back on a prove-it deal and try to fill in with whoever is left of SWR, Varland, Festa, ML signing type guy, etc.

I'd love Gray back on a 2-3 year deal, but I don't think paying him a ton and guaranteeing 4-5 years would be a good play at all for the Twins. 

 

[Battle ur tail off]

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

If the Twins budget drops from 150 million to 125 million due to TV contract situation dropping Polanco and Farmer makes up 17 million of that while trying to find space in the budget for Gray’s salary and it gets difficult.  If our team budget went up to 160 million instead this would be a non issue. We keep Polanco at that point.  And I’m not saying we necessarily trade him now. It’s just one avenue to restructure team budget if prioritizing pitching.  

I will put money on it this will be another year that the owners decide to either keep the payroll where is, or increase it. They finally have something here, fan interest is at an all-time high and it's easy to see we have a load of young guys ready to run. 

This isn't the Carl Pohlad of the past or the Terry Ryan purse string holder Twins. These guys have usually done what they think it takes to win within reason.

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

the front office should be open to trading anyone who doesn't have a no-trade clause in his contract if they feel the trade improves the team.

You do say this a lot, and it's plainly true*, but I'm not sure what wisdom it really imparts.  If Falvey tells Levine, "go make a trade, improve the team," will Levine do more than just stare at him and say, "well, yeah, duh"?

 

* An exception is that the team also needs to sell tickets.  Trading Arraez was a gamble that I tip my hat to the FO for making.  But trading away Puckett in his prime, if another team offered them the world, might not be a step our guys could reasonably take.  There might other reasons to not be open to an otherwise favorable trade.

[Nine of twelve]

28 minutes ago, ashbury said:

You do say this a lot, and it's plainly true*, but I'm not sure what wisdom it really imparts.  If Falvey tells Levine, "go make a trade, improve the team," will Levine do more than just stare at him and say, "well, yeah, duh"?

 

* An exception is that the team also needs to sell tickets.  Trading Arraez was a gamble that I tip my hat to the FO for making.  But trading away Puckett in his prime, if another team offered them the world, might not be a step our guys could reasonably take.  There might other reasons to not be open to an otherwise favorable trade.

My guess is that conversations between those two on the subject of trades are just slightly more in depth than that.

[HerbieFan]

In an ideal world...

1. Pablo

2. Trade acquisition

3. Ryan

4. Paddack

5. Ober

Varland, SWR, maybe Balezovic waiting their turn in St. Paul