The Art of Catching: What is the Twins' October Game Plan?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Let's quit playing checkers and start playing chess with the Twins' October catching opportunities. 

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Over the last few months, the Twins have quietly undertaken a unique experiment in catcher usage. In the last few weeks, it’s taken a truly historic turn. Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers have exactly alternated starts behind the plate for the last 23 games (as of Sept. 19). One starts one game, and the other starts the next. It’s as rigid (yet creative) a division of the labor of the men behind the plate as any team has attempted in recent memory, but it invites the question: How will the catchers be deployed come the playoffs?

Of course, that window–”the playoffs”--could turn out to be a grandiose term for as little as two games of real baseball. We all hope, though, that this will be the year when the Twins have to manage something much more lasting and complicated than that. If it does, how will the team decide when to start which catcher? During the long grind of an MLB regular season, alternating backstops makes a world of sense. It keeps both men fresh, and that objective is at least as worthy as squeezing out a potential run prevented (or scored) here or there. In the postseason, that’s no longer a primary decision driver. Even small margins are worth fighting over in October, and everyone stays fresh enough, anyway, thanks to the off days baked into the postseason schedule.

Happily, the Twins don’t have to lurch around blindfolded here. Their two catchers are both good receivers and game-callers, but they do things slightly differently, and that can help inform the pairings the team should pursue when the stakes are high. After all, the catcher is only half the battery on a given night, and the way their skills as framers and game-callers align with those of the pitchers with whom they work is important information.

Vázquez is the superior pitch framer between these two, overall. He’s also slightly better at controlling the running game. The latter only becomes important if runners start populating the bases, though, and the nobler purpose of a good catcher is to prevent that from happening in the first place. Let’s start, then, by being more specific about what each man does well as a framer.

Thanks to the data collected via Statcast and released to the public via Baseball Savant, we can see that Vázquez isn’t fractionally better than Jeffers at framing all pitches. Instead, he’s considerably better when catching balls on the right side of home plate (from the catcher’s perspective; that makes it the backhand side for right-handed catchers, reaching across with their mitts) and along the bottom edge of the zone. Jeffers is better, however, to the left side of the plate, and especially along the top edge of the zone, as can be seen in the graphic below.

This article continues with a deeper dive into the nuances the Twins will consider for October starts, but it is exclusively for Twins Daily caretakers. To become a Caretaker and read the rest of the piece, you can subscribe here. You'll support the writers that provide you free Twins stories and analysis everyday, both in-season and offseason. 

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[weneedneshek]

I'd really like to see Jeffers catch as many of the playoff games as he is physically able. The slight edge Vazquez may have defensively does not make up for the gulf between them offensively.

[terrydactyls]

If I were making the decision of which catcher to use and with the assumption that both catchers are similar, I would ask that day's starting pitcher who he preferred to have behind the plate.  I don't have any fancy, modern statistics (some starting with a "b", some with an "f", and some with only several capital letters) to support my  theory.  I just feel that the comfort level of the pitcher outweighs statistical analysis.

[MinnInPa]

so..framing..always been disgusted with the data..why?  because the umpire is supposed to read the pitch as it crosses the plate..not when it hits the catchers glove...thus , framing should never come into analysis...IF , Umpires are doing their jobs correctly

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

so..framing..always been disgusted with the data..why?  because the umpire is supposed to read the pitch as it crosses the plate..not when it hits the catchers glove...thus , framing should never come into analysis...IF , Umpires are doing their jobs correctly

Umpires can be doing their jobs as correctly as humanly possible and still be effected by the movement, or lack thereof, by a catcher's glove. It's awfully difficult to judge where a projectile coming at you at 90+ MPH while moving several inches both horizontally and vertically crosses a 17 inch wide, house shaped item in the dirt while also having movement in front of you that isn't just said projectile. There's a lot of info their eyes are trying to process all at once. Reading the "pitch as it crosses the plate" may sound simple, but it's not just some snapshot in time they can assess. The fact that they do as well as they do is mind blowing. Framing absolutely matters whether we'd like it to or not. They're still just humans behind the plate. And humans have limitations.

[Road trip]

The Twins alternating their catchers this year has been... genius (didn't expect that adjective, did you?).

The Twins have only two major league caliber catchers in the system, and they managed to keep them both healthy for the entire year.  That's remarkable, and lucky.  They had depth everywhere else, but not at catcher.  Just think about the injury list this year, based on the anticipated starting lineup back in March (going around the diamond):  Kiriloff, Polanco, Correa, Miranda (and Lewis), Gallo, Buxton/Taylor, and Kepler.  Every one of these players missed time on the IL, and many of them missed substantial time.  Thankfully depth payed off everywhere else, while the two catchers stayed healthy and fresh.  Partly this was due to the rotation plan, and partly due to luck.  When do we ever get luck?  This year at the catcher spot.

As for the playoffs?  I'd like to see more of Jeffers, but it is still a defense-first position and if there are starting pitcher(s) who really prefer throwing to Vazquez I'd be willing to consider that.

[Schmoeman5]

I'm pretty sure that the plan will stay the same as with the regular season. Jeffers will start the 1st game of the series and he'll get the majority of starts if the series extends to the max number of games. Best of 3, 5, or 7. If there are off days I can see Jeffers getting back to back starts. Rocco wouldn't let me see his crystal ball when I saw him on Friday night.

[JD-TWINS]

Roll with the same program for the Playoffs - start with Jeffers every series since it will follow at least one day off.

Can’t imagine there’s a heavy bias from any pitcher toward either catcher - or we would have seen this during the year a few times.

Stay healthy!!

[Mike Sixel]

Play Jeffers every day they can. He's just so much better. This is the playoffs, not the long season. This isn't about depth anyone, it's about the best players playing more. Fangraphs ran data on this over and over..... Teams that have elite players, but less depth, do better in the playoffs than the regular season. 

[Unwinder]

5 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

so..framing..always been disgusted with the data..why?  because the umpire is supposed to read the pitch as it crosses the plate..not when it hits the catchers glove...thus , framing should never come into analysis...IF , Umpires are doing their jobs correctly

As long as they're human they can be tricked into making bad calls, only way to eliminate framing is robo umps.

[Linus]

I believe framing is a thing (back in the old days it was called soft hands or being a good receiver). What I don’t believe is that it is quantifiable. It’s probably more important than ever with some of the absolute horse crap home plate umpiring we see now. I’ll take the extra oomph in Jeffers bat and only start Vasquez to give him a break. 

[NotAboutWinning]

How many playoff games has Jeffers caught? Vasquez? How many WS games has Jeffers caught? Vasquez? Don't discount the significant post-season experience Vasquez has. Which one of our catchers has caught a combined no-no in a WS game?

[DocBauer]

12 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Umpires can be doing their jobs as correctly as humanly possible and still be effected by the movement, or lack thereof, by a catcher's glove. It's awfully difficult to judge where a projectile coming at you at 90+ MPH while moving several inches both horizontally and vertically crosses a 17 inch wide, house shaped item in the dirt while also having movement in front of you that isn't just said projectile. There's a lot of info their eyes are trying to process all at once. Reading the "pitch as it crosses the plate" may sound simple, but it's not just some snapshot in time they can assess. The fact that they do as well as they do is mind blowing. Framing absolutely matters whether we'd like it to or not. They're still just humans behind the plate. And humans have limitations.

Just to add, pitchers AND position players have stated they both like and hate the computer ump. It's not yet perfected in any way. For instance, we've heard the high strike has been an issue. Part of the problem is a computer program that isn't exact yet. The challenge option seems to work, which I like if it can be quick. The robo ump isn't ready yet. As weird as it sounds, it's not "varient" yet as it needs to be based on on each pitch and each batter. Think a 6 foot hitter vs a 6' 4" hitter. The strike area is different and not exact, as of yet. The whole AI, Robo idea is a nice idea, but there remains an inconsistent variance that needs to be adjusted. 

It's a fine idea. And I'm as frustrated as anyone who sees some amazingly bad home plate umpire calls. All I ask for is constancy. And I think the robo umpire is part of the future, but it's not ready yet.

[DocBauer]

Back to the OP, you start the catcher you believe gives you the best mix. In other words, if you have enough data to say catcher X works better with SP X, you do that. But this platoon has been outstanding and durable and productive, overall. And they are both fine game callers and defensive backstops. They're also about 25% throwing out base stealers. 

While Jeffers has the major parts or offensive production, and Vazquez has disappointed based on career numbers and hopefully expectation, with flashes, the two of them have lead the pitching staff all year and have still provided...with 5 games remaining... a pretty solid combination. 28 doubles and 18 HR and 70 RBI with 5 games to play. 

That's pretty outstanding.  I trust Jeffers more, however, and he'd be my #1. 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

The Twins should count their blessings that a Sandy Leon or Jose Godoy were not required this year. Despite the fact that I own his jersey, I do believe that Gary Sanchez catching 91 different ballgames last year was a big reason why the pitching staff was not great (I think the Twins had an ERA in the mid 5.00s when Gary caught), especially down the stretch. Christian Vazquez may be overpaid, but he provides stability, experience, and support to our pitching staff, and I do not think it would be wise to greatly shift the usage of him/Jeffers. Jeffers is a lot better on offense, but Vazquez has tons of postseason experience, and I'd like to have him behind the plate for Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan starts.

[yeahyabetcha]

Could they both be starting if the Twins would be facing a lefty starter in game 1? The Astros Valdez looks like a real possibility.