Can Edouard Julien Overcome His Dire Platoon Weakness?

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Why do you suppose batters hit so much better in a 3-1 count than a 3-2 count?

It's pretty simple math. When you take a strike or swing and miss it doesn't get counted in the denominator on a 3-1 count but it does for a 3-2 count.

Possible outcomes 3-1 = ball in play, walk, advance to a 3-2 count (which doesn't get counted in the batting average)

Possible outcomes 3-2 = ball in play, walk, strikeout

[DJL44]

23 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

Have you seen how many of his strikeouts are on called third strikes?  He is not helping the team by striking out on a called third strike. Good hitters are seldom called out on third strike. Good hitters will foul off a close pitch and then wait for another pitch. Do you really think that players walk 50% of time on 3-2 pitch? That is just not true!

Have you seen how many of his walks are on called 4th balls? (Hint, it's all of them). He is helping the team every time he gets on base with a walk.

Hitters walk 50% of the time on a close pitch on a 3-2 count. If the ball is "close" it's a 50% chance to be called a ball or a strike. A pitch that is a strike 95% of the time isn't "close". I agree, you try to foul off nasty strikes but you don't expand the zone with a 3-2 count.

[USAFChief]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

 

Hitters walk 50% of the time on a close pitch on a 3-2 count. If the ball is "close" it's a 50% chance to be called a ball or a strike. 

This isn't fact. This is a pretty dubious opinion.

Even if we use the publicly available umpire ball/strike stats, they call balls and strikes correctly something like 94% of the time. "Close" pitches are either a ball or a strike. It's not a coin flip and hitters shouldn't pretend it is. Nor will they get a 50/50 split on calls.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This isn't fact. This is a pretty dubious opinion.

Even if we use the publicly available umpire ball/strike stats, they call balls and strikes correctly something like 94% of the time. "Close" pitches are either a ball or a strike. It's not a coin flip and hitters shouldn't pretend it is. Nor will they get a 50/50 split on calls.

Look at the cloud plots of balls and strikes. There are borderline pitches that are 50/50. That's a "close" pitch. A pitch that is a strike 95% of the time or a ball 95% of the time is NOT a close pitch. Even a pitch that is a strike 60% of the time has an OBP of .400 on a full count.

[Seth Stohs]

21 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

While we will likely never know exactly why Baldelli used Vazquez yesterday instead of just letting Julien hit, it is at least plausible that it may have been a consequence of his previous at bat. Julien took a pitch fully in the strike zone on a run and hit leaving Farmer as an easy out at second base. It is possible Baldelli wanted to send a message when he pulled Julien; we just don't know.

I'm 99.9999% sure that Baldelli wasn't sending a message to Julien for a previous at bat. Simply, the message was we are going to give ourselves a better chance to win. And, if I recall, Vazquez was the only guy left on the bench.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

It's pretty simple math. When you take a strike or swing and miss it doesn't get counted in the denominator on a 3-1 count but it does for a 3-2 count.

Possible outcomes 3-1 = ball in play, walk, advance to a 3-2 count (which doesn't get counted in the batting average)

Possible outcomes 3-2 = ball in play, walk, strikeout

I think we disagree that in a 3-1 count hitters are going to see better pitches to hit and attack. If the pitches are exactly the same independent of the count I agree with the simple math.

[Fatbat]

22 hours ago, RpR said:

How many outs is enough?

Winning games comes before training school.

How many times do you get real life 9th inning risp that means win or lose even tho it isnt last game of a playoff series do or die.  That at bat could mean everything to a rookie’s development. 

[Riverbrian]

Lots of talk about Julien not being ready to face lefthanders. Maybe he isn't... Maybe he is... but regardless he will have to get ready because I'll bet anything that Julien, Kirilloff or Wallner will have to face a lefty in the playoffs.      

There are 13 position players on a 26 man roster. There are 9 starters in every game and only 4 pinch hit options with 3 young lefties to hide. Not to mention Kepler and possibly Gallo. Managers are going to ping pong between lefties and righties out of the bullpen. One of those 3 or even two of those 3 are going to have to man up against a lefty because we don't have enough pinch hitting options to keep them all hidden for the entire game and the odds are likely that we will run out of pinch hitting options in the late innings when you don't have extra innings to gain ground.   

What happens to this extreme strict pinch hit platoon style if Farmer or Solano gets hurt in game one? Now you have 3 pinch hit options in game two with one being a catcher. Now you will need Julien to man up against Chapman in the 8th, 9th or 10th inning and Vazquez already playing 1B because he pinch hit for Kirilloff in the 6th. BTW... just to pile on my scenario You also have Vazquez as the Manfred Man runner with no replacement because Castro has already pinch hit for Wallner.  

Yes I know... I'm making up an extreme scenario to simply state that Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner will probably have to face a lefty in the playoffs but it isn't that extreme because we have already seen my scenario play out this season. 

How does pulling Julien before he even swings a bat against Manaea in May prepare him for that moment he steps to the plate against Will Smith because the bench has been exhausted in the Playoffs?  😄

 

 

 

[tony&rodney]

25 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

I'm 99.9999% sure that Baldelli wasn't sending a message to Julien for a previous at bat. Simply, the message was we are going to give ourselves a better chance to win. And, if I recall, Vazquez was the only guy left on the bench.

I'm not at all sure or even really care why Baldelli pinch hit for Julien. You may have resources and knowledge that allow you to know why decisions are made in some game situations, which may explain your certainty. I was merely attempting to soften the vitriol that casts Baldelli as incompetent by suggesting there are reasons for his actions and we don't know his thoughts.

Baseball is entertainment for me these days.  I'm no longer active in the game (too old)  and find simple joy in the pitcher-catcher-batter chess match. I don't see second guessing and anger as a healthy part of entertainment. I do understand that people question actions and get very frustrated.

[DJL44]

40 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I think we disagree that in a 3-1 count hitters are going to see better pitches to hit and attack. If the pitches are exactly the same independent of the count I agree with the simple math.

I think it's selection bias - it only shows up in the stats if the batter swings, which only happens on pitches batters want to hit. Batters walk a LOT on 3-1 counts but clearly they didn't get a good pitch to hit if it was a ball.

[Fatbat]

23 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Julien is an inexperienced baseball player, having played professionally only in 2021 and 2022 before this season. There is plenty of reason to believe that he can improve as a baseball player. 

The splits are rough for Julien this year and I agree with others that he begins to receive more opportunities next year versus lefties. It should be noted that platoon baseball is often a good decision.

While we will likely never know exactly why Baldelli used Vazquez yesterday instead of just letting Julien hit, it is at least plausible that it may have been a consequence of his previous at bat. Julien took a pitch fully in the strike zone on a run and hit leaving Farmer as an easy out at second base. It is possible Baldelli wanted to send a message when he pulled Julien; we just don't know.

Wouldn’t a better message be “Hey, I know you missed the hit and run sign, now you have a bigger opportunity to walk this off, go get it done rookie.” 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

I'm 99.9999% sure that Baldelli wasn't sending a message to Julien for a previous at bat. Simply, the message was we are going to give ourselves a better chance to win. And, if I recall, Vazquez was the only guy left on the bench.

But the argument is whether Vasquez gives us the better chance to win.  So much of the modern analytics movement is laser focused on when is the right time to pull a player from the game; very little focus is given to who is going to replace the pulled player, and whether said replacement is a better option for the specific situation.  Saying "let's yank Julien and replace him with anyone else" is a questionable strategy at best, in my opinion.  Not to mention the damage that can be done to a young player who continually gets pulled in important moments.  If you keep telling Julien he can't hit lefties, and never give him the chance to prove you wrong, eventually he'll start to believe you!  

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Is he?

It's an obvious hypothetical.

We don't know anything other than they are quite reticent to let him bat against a lefty and when they do, it's pretty ugly. Much less so than Wallner who has been getting starts against lefties.

What do you suppose the difference is? There are a dozen possible reasons that aren't going to satisfy this board but we keep pounding the same nail.

[Seth Stohs]

51 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

But the argument is whether Vasquez gives us the better chance to win.  So much of the modern analytics movement is laser focused on when is the right time to pull a player from the game; very little focus is given to who is going to replace the pulled player, and whether said replacement is a better option for the specific situation.  Saying "let's yank Julien and replace him with anyone else" is a questionable strategy at best, in my opinion.  Not to mention the damage that can be done to a young player who continually gets pulled in important moments.  If you keep telling Julien he can't hit lefties, and never give him the chance to prove you wrong, eventually he'll start to believe you!  

All anyone has to do is look at the chart and realize that in that instance, the move makes sense (2 outs in the 9th, down a run). 

Julien likely will get a lot of plate appearances in 2024 from March through July or August and see where the numbers are. Same with Kirilloff and Wallner. Doesn't mean every game vs a lefty, but more often. 

I'm all about development and prospects and stuff, but it's mid-September and this is a playoff team, about to win the division. I have no problem with moves made to give the Twins a better chance at a win. 

[Riverbrian]

32 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

It's an obvious hypothetical.

We don't know anything other than they are quite reticent to let him bat against a lefty and when they do, it's pretty ugly. Much less so than Wallner who has been getting starts against lefties.

What do you suppose the difference is? There are a dozen possible reasons that aren't going to satisfy this board but we keep pounding the same nail.

I have no idea. I can only make assumptions like the rest of us. 

The thing with me is pretty simple. I am willing to give the front office and manager the benefit of the doubt on many things and I do. I am not calling for heads to roll. My criticisms are simply my criticisms... nobody is perfect. 

However... their powers of assessment is simply one area where I will not give them the benefit of the doubt. I don't hold that against them... I give no front office that benefit of the doubt. They are all wrong too often. 

I can't look at all the opportunity given to Gallo and also give them the benefit of the doubt on their assessment of Julien's ability to hit left handers. They were wrong about Gallo.

I can't watch them give Nick Anderson away for absolutely no reason and also give them the benefit of the doubt on their assessment of Juliens ability to hit left handers. They were big time... huge... enormously wrong about Anderson. 

I can't watch them stick with Logan Morrison and give them the benefit of the doubt. I can't watch them ride Martin Perez to the very end before doing a last second switcheroo to Dobnak come playoff time and give them the benefit of the doubt about Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner against lefties and the preparation for the playoffs. 

What players are today isn't what they will be tomorrow we have a coaching staff and analytics to help players get better They can get better... unless you just get in the way and not allow them to. Gallo you just let strikeout over and over again but you gotta pull Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner out in the 5th inning in May. That is backwards.  

This team is playoff bound. Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner will have to face a lefty in the playoffs. 42 AB's over 96 games isn't preparing them for what is about to come. 

They can swing in the cage all they want to get repetitions in. At some point... they will have to step in that box against Chapman or Smith and we will need them to lace a double down the line.

Reticence isn't helpful in the future in my opinion no matter what is causing it. 

I know there is more to the story but on the surface as closely as you and I watch. It sure seems like pure simple strict adherence and over playing the lefty vs lefty card when there are plenty of games to go and having it land on their heads with just a few games to go with it all on the line.  

 

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Wouldn’t a better message be “Hey, I know you missed the hit and run sign, now you have a bigger opportunity to walk this off, go get it done 

For one thing, it wasn't a hit and run. It was a full count. 

 

[USAFChief]

39 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

All anyone has to do is look at the chart and realize that in that instance, the move makes sense (2 outs in the 9th, down a run). 

Julien likely will get a lot of plate appearances in 2024 from March through July or August and see where the numbers are. Same with Kirilloff and Wallner. Doesn't mean every game vs a lefty, but more often. 

I'm all about development and prospects and stuff, but it's mid-September and this is a playoff team, about to win the division. I have no problem with moves made to give the Twins a better chance at a win. 

I don't believe for a second that Vazquez against a RH reliever gives them a better chance at extending that game than Julien against a LHer.

And hey! Howaboutthat!!?? Vazquez is walking back to the dugout three pitches later, with the last a feeble swing at a pitch halfway into the LH batters box.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Seth Stohs said:

Julien likely will get a lot of plate appearances in 2024 from March through July or August and see where the numbers are. Same with Kirilloff and Wallner. Doesn't mean every game vs a lefty, but more often. 

I'm all about development and prospects and stuff, but it's mid-September and this is a playoff team, about to win the division. I have no problem with moves made to give the Twins a better chance at a win.

Based on what? These mid September games are meaningless, the division is wrapped, the Twins aren't catching Houston for the 2 seed, but Julien still can't get any sort of regular run against LHP. Why are we supposed to believe that MN will be feeding him ABs against LHP during the portion of next season where every W matters? 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

However... their powers of assessment is simply one area where I will not give them the benefit of the doubt. I don't hold that against them... I give no front office that benefit of the doubt. They are all wrong too often.

I can't look at all the opportunity given to Gallo and also give them the benefit of the doubt on their assessment of Julien's ability to hit left handers. They were wrong about Gallo.

I can't watch them give Nick Anderson away for absolutely no reason and also give them the benefit of the doubt on their assessment of Juliens ability to hit left handers. They were big time... huge... enormously wrong about Anderson. 

I can't watch them stick with Logan Morrison and give them the benefit of the doubt. I can't watch them ride Martin Perez to the very end before doing a last second switcheroo to Dobnak come playoff time and give them the benefit of the doubt about Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner against lefties and the preparation for the playoffs.

These particular examples are not making the point you think they are,  If these are the burning items in your craw, you should probably step back for a bigger picture.

I had to look up Nick Anderson.  He had a cup of coffee in A ball with the Twins and is a decent major league reliever at best.  Half the league has a similar story.

Logan Morrison was a one year $7m flyer that didn't work out but they rode out the year, same as Gallo.  Big deal.  Morrison, by the way, they stuck with all the way to his last appearance on August 10th.  Hip injury, second time on the IL with a hip injury that was likely bothering most of the year.  They took a one year flyer on a guy who got injured.  Half the league has a similar story.

The Martin Perez/Randy Dobnak/Chris Archer/Dylan Bundy/Micheal Pineda/JA Happ/Rich Hill/Lance Lynn/Addison Reed/Bartolo Colon/who did I miss era doesn't have much to do with benefit of the doubt on hitters but it will help me illustrate my point.  These pitchers were stepping stones to where we are now, which is undoubtedly better than where we were.

If you chose to remember a Nick Anderson and it gives you a visceral reaction you are not thinking clearly in evaluating the front office.  In one breath, you say all front offices are wrong all to often.  In the next you give fringe examples as defining moments.  If we step back for a larger view, there is not one area of talent that is not markedly better than it was 5 years ago.  If we look at the bigger picture, I have quite a lot of faith in them to get it right in the long term. 

I've been reminiscing quite a bit lately and found the below thread from 2019 a few weeks ago.  Quite interesting to read back and the discussion is basically the same, just the names are different.  Spoiler, Lamonte Wade and Akil Baddoo are featured prominently (insert Spencer Steer and CES to modernize) Does anyone really miss those guys?  Compared to the current roster?  No, absolutely not. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

22 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

If we step back for a larger view, there is not one area of talent that is not markedly better than it was 5 years ago.  If we look at the bigger picture, I have quite a lot of faith in them to get it right in the long term. 

I'm sorry... I have a hard time explaining myself at times. I use too many words and you are not understanding my point. 

It will help to understand my point if you understand that I am Pro Falvey, Lavine and Rocco. I believe that they have made a lot of progress. Others will certainly argue with you and I... however please understand that my criticisms are not founded on a desire to toss them over a bridge. 

My point... to the best that I can nutshell it is this. 

The margins are thin... the job is hard, the competition is stiff and constant.

Front offices do this for a living and are better at it than I am. They have more data than I do.

However... players over perform and under perform their expectations all the time. Therefore... I do not trust them or any front office to look at a player and say... He can't do this and then proceed forward case closed. So whenever I see a front office placing a road block in front of a player from showing them what they can do. I object to it. 

All the examples that I gave... yes I am holding on to them but they are merely some of the worst examples of a player not being what they thought he would be and are just examples on why you can't take a front office assessment as gospel.  

So... In a nutshell. What is happening to Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner against left handed pitchers is something I'd like them to reconsider. 

 

 

[SwainZag]

29 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm sorry... I have a hard time explaining myself at times. I use too many words and you are not understanding my point. 

It will help to understand my point if you understand that I am Pro Falvey, Lavine and Rocco. I believe that they have made a lot of progress. Others will certainly argue with you and I... however please understand that my criticisms are not founded on a desire to toss them over a bridge. 

My point... to the best that I can nutshell it is this. 

The margins are thin... the job is hard, the competition is stiff and constant.

Front offices do this for a living and are better at it than I am. They have more data than I do.

However... players over perform and under perform their expectations all the time. Therefore... I do not trust them or any front office to look at a player and say... He can't do this and then proceed forward case closed. So whenever I see a front office placing a road block in front of a player from showing them what they can do. I object to it. 

All the examples that I gave... yes I am holding on to them but they are merely some of the worst examples of a player not being what they thought he would be and are just examples on why you can't take a front office assessment as gospel.  

So... In a nutshell. What is happening to Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner against left handed pitchers is something I'd like them to reconsider. 

 

 

If you are expecting a front office to be right on every player and hit on every player, then yes you shouldn't trust any front office.  In reality you probably should be hoping a front office is right more than they are wrong.  Even the best front office in the world have a list of players they bet on that failed, draft picks that didn't pan out and players they signed that under performed.  

I think it's all good and well to question front office moves, but when wrong moves are pounded over and over and over again and the right moves are rarely lauded because you are expecting them to make the correct move each time, you are probably going to have a bad time and be frustrated more than you should be.

[jorgenswest]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think it's selection bias - it only shows up in the stats if the batter swings, which only happens on pitches batters want to hit. Batters walk a LOT on 3-1 counts but clearly they didn't get a good pitch to hit if it was a ball.

We disagree. I think they see better pitches to hit 3-1 than 3-2.

I did appreciate that last night he attacked that ball on a 2-0 count. Before last night only three Twins had fewer balls in play on a 2-0 count (Garlick, Gordon and Stevenson). That is what I want to see more. Good hitters should be ready to do damage when ahead in the count. He is a good hitter and I think he is missing some opportunities. That in a nutshell was my original point.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

If you are expecting a front office to be right on every player and hit on every player, then yes you shouldn't trust any front office.  In reality you probably should be hoping a front office is right more than they are wrong.  Even the best front office in the world have a list of players they bet on that failed, draft picks that didn't pan out and players they signed that under performed.  

I think it's all good and well to question front office moves, but when wrong moves are pounded over and over and over again and the right moves are rarely lauded because you are expecting them to make the correct move each time, you are probably going to have a bad time and be frustrated more than you should be.

I think it's impossible for any front office to be right on every player so therefore... 

I just hope for a front office that realizes that they are not right on every player and they don't pre-determine the outcome.  

 

[Jocko87]

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I think it's impossible for any front office to be right on every player so therefore... 

I just hope for a front office that realizes that they are not right on every player and they don't pre-determine the outcome.  

 

We agree on this.  We have to remember that we very seldom can make these determinations in the moment.  I'm sick to death of trade retrospective articles 3 weeks later that seek to proclaim one thing of another.

Current evidence is that they are progressing differently with how two left handed hitters are used against left handed pitching.  They are both full products of this front office that they drafted and developed to this point so successfully that these boards have howled for their promotions.  I'm willing to give them leeway on the weekly/monthly/yearly details as I'm not privy to enough information.  We should not be surprised that the 1 st round pick is getting there slightly sooner than the 18th rounder.

But, honestly, to say getting this production out of an 18th round draft pick is anything but a resounding success is short sighted at best.  Realize the nits we are picking at here.

[USAFChief]

36 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

We disagree. I think they see better pitches to hit 3-1 than 3-2.

I did appreciate that last night he attacked that ball on a 2-0 count. Before last night only three Twins had fewer balls in play on a 2-0 count (Garlick, Gordon and Stevenson). That is what I want to see more. Good hitters should be ready to do damage when ahead in the count. He is a good hitter and I think he is missing some opportunities. That in a nutshell was my original point.

Concur. The primary objective of a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit, and hit it.

It's not to hope for a walk.

1-0, 2-0, 3-1 pitches are counts that in most cases a hitter should look for a pitch to hit.

Need multiple baserunners late? Fine, take a pitch and see if the guy can throw strikes.

Otherwise? Look to attack.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

For one thing, it wasn't a hit and run. It was a full count. 

 

Farmer was not stealing a base. He was going on the belief that Julien would make contact on a strike or take a ball. Thus it is a run and hit. I like it when Baldelli loosens up and put players in motion but many do not. Julien freezing up makes the call to send Farmer look questionable but the fault lies with Julien here. He has to swing to protect the plodding Farmer.

FWIW, I was not happy about Julien taking that pitch but even athletes at the highest level f-up. I wasn not in favor of Baldelli sending Vazquez to pinch hit either, mostly because I believed that the Ray's lefty was less effective than their righty who came in and put Christian away on three pitches. It just doesn't make any sense to spend any time second guessing. I might not like a decision at the time it was made but I move on. More than any other sport baseball is all about failure, dealing with it and adapting and having the confidence to forget misplays to an extent yet still learn and adjust.

[jkcarew]

Here’s what we know…

Julien WILL BE better against lefties than Vasquez is against righties. We KNOW what Vasquez is. Anyone with eyes can tell that Julien has tons more talent and potential than Vasquez with the bat, even as he’s still learning.

If we’re saying the Vasquez matchup is what Rocco preferred, my response would be stop overthinking it, Rocco…and give the talent a chance.

[RpR]

8 hours ago, Fatbat said:

  That at bat could mean everything to a rookie’s development. 

If he is that desperate, he should not have left AAA.

[jkcarew]

Also, Julien has every indication of being a three-true-outcome guy. He goes deep into counts almost all the time looking for a very specific pitch and/or area….he ain’t tying to hit singles. Those guys will always K a lot…and walk a lot. If you don’t like that style, I don’t think you’re going to like Julien.

He’s pretty much the polar opposite of Lewis who’s pretty much hacking at the first pitch he thinks he can hit anywhere. That’s why Julien figures to work well leading off, and Lewis works well in a 3-5 spot. Both styles can work if executed consistently well enough. So far, so good, IMO.

[jkcarew]

U

8 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I think we disagree that in a 3-1 count hitters are going to see better pitches to hit and attack. If the pitches are exactly the same independent of the count I agree with the simple math.

Absolutely…and batters chase less on 3-1…way less, and as a result, swing and miss less. The math simply compounds the discrepancy further, by not ‘counting’ the whiffs when they do occur.