Pablo Lopez Quietly Climbing an Important Twins List

[Cody Christie]

The Twins traded for Pablo Lopez while hoping he would provide a top-of-the-rotation arm to help the team keep open their winning window. His Twins tenure is off to a terrific start, and he has a chance to finish the year among the best seasons from a starting pitcher in team history.

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Twins fans will look back on the Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez trade for quite some time. Arraez was a fan favorite, and Lopez was viewed as a good but maybe not great starting pitcher. The Twins' front office felt that Lopez had more to offer as a starting pitcher and believed he could become a top-of-the-rotation starter. However, looking at his previous track record, that wasn't completely evident. 

Lopez was coming off a solid season where he posted a 3.75 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP in 180 innings. He compiled an 8.7 K/9, which was his lowest total since 2019. There were also some signs of him tiring as his ERA rose from 2.86 in the first half to 4.97 in the second half. In his first four seasons with Miami, he posted a 4.04 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 1.20 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. He was a solid starter, but the Twins believed they could get more from Lopez in 2023. 

Like many pitchers across baseball, Lopez added a sweeper over the last year, which has become one of his best secondary pitches. Opponents have hit .183 against his sweeper with a .310 SLG with a 35.6 Whiff%. His only pitch with a higher Whiff% is his curveball (38.4%), but he's thrown this pitch over 200 times less than his other secondary pitches and primarily used it against lefties. His velocity has increased on all his pitches, with his fastball seeing the most significant increase at 1.4 mph. His increase in velocity and the addition of his sweeper have impacted his overall performance. 

Lopez's peripheral data also points to his improvements this season. He ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, BB%, K%, and Whiff%. His best categories include ranking in the 91st percentile for chase rate and 97th percentile for extension. For some perspective, he ranked in the 50th percentile or lower in many of the categories mentioned above in 2022.

Lopez is four strikeouts away from becoming the Twins' first 200-strikeout pitcher since Jose Berrios in 2018. With seven more strikeouts, he will have the most strikeouts by a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana reached 235 strikeouts in 2007. Only two pitchers in team history, Bert Blyleven and Santana, have collected more than 235 strikeouts, and that is a total Lopez can reach before the season's end. 

Santana and Lopez are both Venezuelan natives, and the latter grew up idolizing the former left-handed Cy Young winner. Lopez, like Santana, has a strong change-up that can be a strikeout weapon. He might not be watching the strikeout totals for the season, especially with his team in the division race. However, he has a chance to be mentioned in the same company as his boyhood idol, which must be a thrill. 

"Consistency with a process can lead to consistency with results," Lopez told reporters. "It's gotten to the point when you want to focus on quality over quantity when it comes to getting your work in. Every start will tell you something to work on for the next one. It's just keeping that consistency with the process [that] will hopefully lead to the rest."

The Twins will have to be careful with their usage of Lopez down the stretch, especially if the team can stretch their lead in the AL Central. It would be great for him to reach the top-10 on the team's single-season strikeout list, but not at the cost of him being out of gas in October. 

How many strikeouts can Lopez accumulate this season? How will you remember his first season in a Twins uniform? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[AlwaysinModeration]

Arraez:  .356

Lopez 3.72

Will they pass each other by season’s end?

And has Julien proven that Arraez was expendable?

Lopez is 11Ks behind Gausman for the AL strikeout title.

[strumdatjag]

Luis Arraez’s current batting average is .356   That is the best in baseball.  His OPS, however, is a very good (but not in top ten) .855. He does not hit for power (6 home runs) and has below average defense.  
The Twins have an abundance of middle infielders and left-handed hitters.   The Twins made a good trade when they landed Pablo Lopez. 

[tony&rodney]

It isn't necessary to win a trade if the players fill the voids in their new team. Luis Arraez has a terrific bat and is an instant fan favorite because of how he works a pitcher and frequently gets on base. A number of people were upset to see Arraez go to Miami, which is understandable.

Pablo Lopez has stepped into the Twins rotation and been a consistent quality pitcher with occasional starts to hint as to his becoming what so many desire, an ace. The Twins can look to solid starting pitching as the main reason they are currently leading the AL Central. Pitching remains a main barometer of success for any team.

While it was understandable that folks were sad to see Luis Arraez traded, the return (Pablo Lopez +2) was excellent at the time of the trade and has made the Twins a better team. Pitching is always volatile and injuries a big concern. Both Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda will be free agents after the current season ends. It makes sense for the Twins to investigate potential trades for an additional strong starting pitcher for next season. This may mean the loss of an exciting fan favorite from the current team, but also result in a more favorable outcome in victories going forward. Free agents are a potential way to add pitching but development and trades are likely to bring a more positive outcome. The Arraez-P.Lopez trade is an example, although these are difficult to forecast.

[Craig Arko]

Perhaps the whole notion of ‘winning a trade’ is a fiction invented by those who need to find something else to disagree about.

[Karbo]

Although I was bummed to lose Arraez, I felt at the time it was a good trade. As good as Louis was he was expendable. Lopez looks like he can be an ace, and should be for quite a while. This FO has missed on a few decisions (like Gallo and many of the starters in the last couple years) but this looks to be a great deal.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

Perhaps the whole notion of ‘winning a trade’ is a fiction invented by those who need to find something else to disagree about.

So sports talk radio and the TV babbleheads.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Perhaps the whole notion of ‘winning a trade’ is a fiction invented by those who need to find something else to 

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Parfigliano
Double post

[Road trip]

Lopez has been good, certainly.

Among the best years in team history?  No, sorry, not close, unless he has a really dominant September.  He has the strikeouts, but his ERA is merely above average.  7 losses, all deserved for the most part.  He might be the best Twins starter this year, but I'd probably go with Gray (much better ERA).

Santana (several times), Viola (at least twice), Blyleven (again, multiple times) even the 1 year flashes of Liriano and Scott Erikson were all more dominant years.  I won't even dig back to some of the great Twins pitchers of the 60's/70's era,

I hope Lopez eventually puts out a year like those. He's got an interesting back story and seems like a really nice guy.  I'm rooting for him, to be sure, but piling up strikeouts alone isn't a great year, especially in an era when strikeouts are at an all time high.  Hopefully this article is dead on for 2024 😁  

 

[Blyleven2011]

Pablo has had alot of good games early in the season and in the second half , alittle bumpy ride in the middle of the season  ...

Pablo is a good pitcher , but will he be the best in Twins history if he exceeds the strikeout totals , I wouldn't claim him to be ,  as the Twins have had some good pitchers and some of those pitchers could hit  , to me that was awesome , kitty was always fun to watch hit in games pitched , he was also a pinch hitter  .... 

Who was or is the best Twins pitcher in history , Cy young winners , perry , viola ( sweet music ) or Santana  , hall of famers ,  blyleven or kaat  and don't forget the history dates back to the senators  ,,,

BIG TRAIN , Walter Johnson  ...

Strikeouts don't  make a pitcher the best in baseball  , blyleven struck out more than 3700 in his career , to me that longevity makes him a good pitcher  ,, why didn't  bert win any Cy Youngs with the Twins,  probably because  the Twins were always  a competitive team of five hundred  , bert had alot of season with Twins where he had a 500 record pitching but his other numbers reflected he he should have won Cy Youngs  , but wins and losses mattered alot until a few years ago ...

[Rod Carews Birthday]

47 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

BIG TRAIN , Walter Johnson  ...

Walter Johnson may have been the best pitcher ever, so that title is safe! 

That said.  I have no complaints about Lopez.  I'm excited to learn that he is closing in on some good team milestones.  I think his first start of the year said it all. He didn't really have his best stuff, but he was a good enough pitcher to win anyway.  That characteristic is an essential ingredient to becoming an "ace".  Let's hope he just gets better and better. 

[Doctor Wu]

Lopez seems like a very astute and super intelligent player. If he can put it all together and be more consistent (avoiding the gopher balls) I think he could end up being a top of the rotation type of pitcher. But he's not quite there yet. In any case, I'm happy to have him and even though we lost Arraez, I have no regrets about the trade at all. 

[weitz41]

Both teams are in playoff contention. Both teams won this trade. Pablo is a part of the reason the Twins are in 1st place, along with many other things going the Twins way. I was happy with the trade at the time and still am.

One thing about his numbers I'd like to point out is switching the 22 Braves, Mets and Phillies for the 23 Guardians, White Sox and Tigers may skew the numbers a bit. Plus, the balanced schedule.

Don't take it the wrong way. Pablo has been great but one of the best starters seasons in Twins history might be a bit of a reach. K's are great, trophies are better.

[dex8425]

17 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Pablo has had alot of good games early in the season and in the second half , alittle bumpy ride in the middle of the season  ...

Pablo is a good pitcher , but will he be the best in Twins history if he exceeds the strikeout totals , I wouldn't claim him to be ,  as the Twins have had some good pitchers and some of those pitchers could hit  , to me that was awesome , kitty was always fun to watch hit in games pitched , he was also a pinch hitter  .... 

Who was or is the best Twins pitcher in history , Cy young winners , perry , viola ( sweet music ) or Santana  , hall of famers ,  blyleven or kaat  and don't forget the history dates back to the senators  ,,,

BIG TRAIN , Walter Johnson  ...

Strikeouts don't  make a pitcher the best in baseball  , blyleven struck out more than 3700 in his career , to me that longevity makes him a good pitcher  ,, why didn't  bert win any Cy Youngs with the Twins,  probably because  the Twins were always  a competitive team of five hundred  , bert had alot of season with Twins where he had a 500 record pitching but his other numbers reflected he he should have won Cy Youngs  , but wins and losses mattered alot until a few years ago ...

If the writers used the criteria for awarding Cy young awards that they do now, Bert would've won the Cy Young in 1973. He easily led the league in WAR.