Analyzing Michael A. Taylor's Unexpected Power Surge

[Cody Schoenmann]

When the Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor in January, they expected to get an elite defensive centerfielder who provides a relatively productive bottom-of-the-order bat. Taylor has fit that bill to a tee. What the Twins likely didn't foresee was Taylor hitting for power. Where is Taylor's power surge coming from?

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry - USA TODAY Sports

Those who consume baseball on a grand scale tend to fall into the habit of putting players in boxes. 

For example, all who follow baseball closely view Martin Maldonado of the Astros strictly as a defensive catcher. That's where his value is, and if his defensive prowess were to decline to even average, he would likely no longer be an active Major League Baseball player. 

But what about when a player deviates from one or multiple preconceived notions placed on them and begins to decline or excel in a rather unexpected area of their game?

This precise phenomenon is currently happening to Minnesota Twins centerfielder Michael A. Taylor. 

Throughout his almost ten-year Major League career, Taylor has garnered the reputation of being a defensive specialist in centerfield who hits for singles and the occasional extra-base hit with home runs coming sparingly. 

While maintaining a level of elite defense in centerfield, illustrated by currently possessing eight Outs Above Average (OAA), which ranks him seventh out of 42 qualified centerfielders, Taylor has added a new element to his game in his first year as a member of the Twins: power. 

When looking at centerfielders with at least 300 plate appearances, Taylor currently ranks seventh out of 27 centerfielders with an Isolated Power (ISO) of .206.

To put this into perspective, here are the ten leaders in ISO for centerfielders:

(Note: League average ISO for centerfielders stands at .168)

1. Luis Robert Jr., White Sox - .291
2. Chas McCormick, Astros - .248 
3. Jack Suwinski, Pirates - .243 
4. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks - .232
5. Mike Trout, Angels - .230
6. Cody Bellinger, Cubs -.223
7. Taylor, Twins - .206
8. Cedric Mullins, Orioles - .195
9. Jarren Duran, Red Sox - .191
10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners - .187

Admittedly, there is a significant drop off of .17 points from Bellinger to Taylor. Regardless, the fact that he is above star players like Mullins and Rodriguez and keeping company with some of the league's most recognizable power hitters in Bellinger and Trout is nothing to scoff at. 

Taylor sitting top ten in ISO for centerfielders is unexpected, and his career norms reiterate that notion.

After taking out the 60-game 2020 season, where Taylor generated an ISO of .228 in just 99 plate appearances, here are Taylor's ISO numbers over the past five seasons:

• 2018, Nationals - (.130)
• 2019, Nationals - (.114)
• 2021, Royals - (.112)
• 2022, Royals - (.104)
• 2023, Twins - (presently .206)

Subtracting 2020, Taylor's average ISO from 2018-2022 is .115, which is .46 points below the league average of that stretch of .161. 

Why is Taylor Suddenly Hitting for Power?
Anytime an element of a hitter's game drastically changes out of seemingly nowhere, the first place one should look for answers is whether or not that player has changed something in their approach or their mechanics. 

In Taylor's case, there appears to be a noteworthy change in both.

First, let's look at Taylor's approach. 

Through 320 plate appearances, Taylor has struck out 109 times and currently owns a Strikeout Percentage (K%) of 34.1%. Taylor's K% of 34.1% is on track to be 10.2 percentage points higher than the K% he had last year with the Royals, which was 23.9%. 

It is clear that Taylor, whether through the Twins' advice, on his account, or both, is sacrificing contact for power.

Although Taylor's batting average and on-base percentage are lower than his career norms, he has hit 16 home runs so far in 2023 and is on track to surpass his career high in home runs which he set with the Washington Nationals in 2017, hitting 19 home runs. 

Next, let's look at Taylor's swing mechanics.

When a hitter makes drastic changes in their hitting mechanics, there tends to be an increase or decline in specific ability-based statistics that back the change they underwent. In Taylor's case, there is a trend of mild-to-moderate change in specific power-relevant statistics.

The four power-relevant statistics that Taylor has incurred a mild-to-moderate deviation in are Max Exit Velocity (Max EV), Expected Slugging (XSLG), Barrel Percentage (Barrel %), and Launch Angle.

Here are Taylor's numbers in the four statistics provided compared to his averages from 2018-2022, once again subtracting 2020:

Max EV
2018-2022 - (110.6)
2023 - (113.1) 

XSLG
2018-2022 - (.365)
2023 - (.437)

Barrel %
2018-2022 - (6.7)
2023 - (13.2)

Launch Angle
2018-2022 - (10.3)
2023 - (12.1)

In all four statistics provided, Taylor's 2023 numbers are greater than his averages from 2018-2022, with sharp increases in his XSLG and Barrel % standing out in particular. 

While many factors go into the creation and continued development of one's swing, sometimes minor adjustments can lead to great discoveries and surprising results. 

After Taylor hit a two-run home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday night, Twins play-by-play announcer Dick Bremer stated that Taylor attributes his newfound power to utilizing a new leg kick, a technique he didn't use while with the Kansas City Royals. 

The logic behind hitters using a leg kick is to ensure they use their body's lower half. Occasionally, hitters find themselves not using their lower half in their swing mechanics, leading to a decrease in power, and that may have been the situation Taylor was finding himself in before joining the Twins.

As shown in this video, when Taylor was with the Royals, the lower half of his body was essentially motionless. A stark contrast to the home run he hit as a member of the Twins.

By incorporating a leg kick, Taylor activates his entire lower body once his foot plants on the ground. When a player like Taylor gets his quick and twitchy upper half in unison with a strong lower half acting as a foundation, then power outbreaks, like the one Taylor is going through right now, are more likely to occur. 

As the season continues, the Twins and Taylor will look to continue to benefit from Taylor's newfound leg kick as he brings an element of power from the bottom of the lineup, something very few teams can say they have. 

Are you impressed by Taylor's unexpected power surge? Comment below.

View full article

[Patzky]

I like the power but I am more pleased that while he does strike out, he does not squander scoring opportunities at the rate other Twins seem to. When Taylor kicks off an inning by getting on base, good things usually happen.

[Karbo]

No complaints. The Twins are getting more than their money's worth!

[Mike Sixel]

Wow. That's some insane cherry picking of one stat. He's been bad overall as a hitter. Of CF with at least 300 at bats, he's 26th offensively overall.  And much worse since his hot start. He has all of 1.3 fwar, and that's with his defense. He's not a starter on a great team. He's a great fourth OF. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Wow. That's some insane cherry picking of one stat. He's been bad overall as a hitter. Of CF with at least 300 at bats, he's 26th offensively overall.  And much worse since his hot start. He has all of 1.3 fwar, and that's with his defense. He's not a starter on a great team. He's a great fourth OF. 

The only declaration I make in the piece is that Taylor is an elite defensive centerfielder, which he is. I just analyzed his unexpected power surge and why I think it is happening. I never said whether I think he is good or bad offensively and I never said he was a starter on a great team. 

Edited August 20, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

The only declaration I make in the piece is that Taylor is an elite defensive centerfielder, which he is. I just analyzed his unexpected power surge and why I think it is happening. I never said whether I think he is good or bad offensively and I never said he was a starter on a great team. 

Fair. Apologies. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fair. Apologies. 

It's all good!

[HokieRif]

I had the regular ability to watch Taylor when he came up with the Nats and he flashed some of this power from time to time. This isn’t necessarily a surprise to see that he’s doing this, but it a little surprising to see the resurgence. What is not shocking are the stats that make him pretty consistent with a lot of the roster - a disproportionally high K rate.  With the exception of Wallner, I would love to just see some contact hitting and gappers when the bases are loaded instead of swinging for the fences all the time. 

[KirbyDome89]

37 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

The only declaration I make in the piece is that Taylor is an elite defensive centerfielder, which he is. I just analyzed his unexpected power surge and why I think it is happening. I never said whether I think he is good or bad offensively and I never said he was a starter on a great team. 

You lumped him in with Mike Trout. That's a neutral take not intended to shine a favorable light on Taylor?

Why call a starting CFer with a .220/.270/.423 slash alongside a 34% K rate and 5.6% BB rate productive by any measure? 

C'mon....

[old nurse]

By touting where Taylor stands in cf rankings of ISO, in the context of the game of baseball this article shows the meaninglessness of the ISO stat on it’s own.  Are the Twins better off with the “power” hitting Taylor rather than the player he was in KC,? Undoubtedly. Will the Twins be better off with a different CF? By WAR he is the 25th best CF with 300 PA. 

 

[Wizard11]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You lumped him in with Mike Trout. That's a neutral take not intended to shine a favorable light on Taylor?

Why call a starting CFer with a .220/.270/.423 slash alongside a 34% K rate and 5.6% BB rate productive by any measure? 

C'mon....

He was signed to be a fourth OF’er.  There was nothing in the article to imply he was as valuable as Mike Trout or anyone else on the list.  The message was that he has hit for more power than expected and has been an upside surprise.  Why the nitpicking?

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

The only declaration I make in the piece is that Taylor is an elite defensive centerfielder, which he is. I just analyzed his unexpected power surge and why I think it is happening. I never said whether I think he is good or bad offensively and I never said he was a starter on a great team. 

……correct. He’s doing a commendable job as a platoon CF - base stealer - depth piece & he’s got 16HR!

Not his fault that Buxton has been hurt essentially all season & not available. Taylor has helped immeasurably as the guy in CF any day you need him! Going forward he can still help us as needed. Great sign by FO.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Wizard11 said:

He was signed to be a fourth OF’er.  There was nothing in the article to imply he was as valuable as Mike Trout or anyone else on the list.  The message was that he has hit for more power than expected and has been an upside surprise.  Why the nitpicking?

Agreed. Just because you don’t hate on a player doesn’t mean you think he’s Wille Mays

One thing I know is I am so happy to have had Taylor playing CF most of the year v. Celestino!!!!!

[Ctwink]

Not to be a jerk, but this is NOT a good news story.  Taylor really just needs to get on-base and steal bases from the #9 slot in front of the Twins REAL power hitters and here he is striking out 32% of the time (!) in order to hit 10 more HR's in the year.  The amount he has added to his SLG (app 70 pts) almost exactly equals the drop in his BA and OBP and while his OPS is up 28 pts, his OPS+ is down (90 to 88) from last year. 

Considering everyone on the Twins wants to swing from their heals and strikeout all the time, having someone who actually could get on-base and take advantage of the new SB rules sacrifice almost all of it for a little more power is "stupid".

[KirbyDome89]

20 hours ago, Wizard11 said:

He was signed to be a fourth OF’er.  There was nothing in the article to imply he was as valuable as Mike Trout or anyone else on the list.  The message was that he has hit for more power than expected and has been an upside surprise.  Why the nitpicking?

Buxton didn't crack 60 starts in CF in either '21 or '22. Taylor wasn't signed to simply be a 4th OFer, and we all knew that. 

Uh huh, and I never inferred that either. I asked why an article that claims to make no declarations is also uses Trout as a comp and labels some pretty paltry offensive numbers as productive. 

He hasn't been an "upside surprise," Taylor is emblematic of the offensive issues that have plagued this team all year, hence the nitpicking. 

[Major League Ready]

On 8/20/2023 at 11:17 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Wow. That's some insane cherry picking of one stat. He's been bad overall as a hitter. Of CF with at least 300 at bats, he's 26th offensively overall.  And much worse since his hot start. He has all of 1.3 fwar, and that's with his defense. He's not a starter on a great team. He's a great fourth OF. 

That's depressing.  I would not have guessed he was quite that low.  He makes up for some of that defensively but it just shows how crucial it is for Buxton to one day return to CF.  How does Houston come up with a 21st round draft pick that ranks 2nd?

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

That's depressing.  I would not have guessed he was quite that low.  He makes up for some of that defensively but it just shows how crucial it is for Buxton to one day return to CF.  How does Houston come up with a 21st round draft pick that ranks 2nd?

I would never have guessed it was that bad had I not looked....that's why context is so important when looking at value. Everyone else is just better.....

[Doctor Wu]

On 8/21/2023 at 7:28 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Agreed. Just because you don’t hate on a player doesn’t mean you think he’s Wille Mays

One thing I know is I am so happy to have had Taylor playing CF most of the year v. Celestino!!!!!

Good point, How quickly we forget that about our only capable CF option last year was Celestino. Hey, he could still turn into a good MLB player, but I'm happy to have Taylor handing the duty this year. 

[Doctor Wu]

Very good article. One thing you wrote really stood out for me: 

It is clear that Taylor, whether through the Twins' advice, on his account, or both, is sacrificing contact for power.

Like you and others, I've been surprised by Taylor's power and home run total this year. But the increase in strikeouts is disturbing and certainly DOES fit into the pattern and problem we've seen with Buxton and other Twins batters. The home runs are nice to see, but I'd also like to see Taylor getting on base more often and using his speed to help the team. 

[Linus]

20 hours ago, Ctwink said:

Not to be a jerk, but this is NOT a good news story.  Taylor really just needs to get on-base and steal bases from the #9 slot in front of the Twins REAL power hitters and here he is striking out 32% of the time (!) in order to hit 10 more HR's in the year.  The amount he has added to his SLG (app 70 pts) almost exactly equals the drop in his BA and OBP and while his OPS is up 28 pts, his OPS+ is down (90 to 88) from last year. 

Considering everyone on the Twins wants to swing from their heals and strikeout all the time, having someone who actually could get on-base and take advantage of the new SB rules sacrifice almost all of it for a little more power is "stupid".

This. A couple of weeks ago he was up with 2 outs and runners at the corners. He got a center cut fastball and took a hack so big he half cork screw into the ground. Next pitch takes a breaking ball looking for strike 3. It’s a scene that has played out over and over again this season with a lot of guys.