Twins Daily Draft Preview: Paul Skenes

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Today we conclude the 10-part series previewing potential selections for the Minnesota Twins on Sunday night with the fifth overall pick. Today's profile contains the best collegiate pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg and a likely pipe-dream for the Minnesota Twins at #5.

Paul Skenes is an absolute stud and whoever gets him is getting, arguably, the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. 

Image courtesy of Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports

Who is He?
Paul Skenes is a generational talent who just completed his junior year leading the LSU Tigers to the National Championship. He spent his first two years pitching for Air Force Academy (the former home of current Twins reliever Griffin Jax). Skenes transferred before he would be required to put his baseball career on pause as Jax had to do before committing to baseball full-time.

And Wes Johnson unlocked a pitcher rarely seen in the college ranks. Skenes has an 80-grade fastball that routinely hits triple-digits, a plus-slider that will give hitters fits and a usable change-up that he will continue to develop. He's also actually a very good hitter as well and jokes that he wants to hit too. He might not give Shohei Ohtani a run for best two-way player in the MLB, but there's no doubt that he's a different type.

At 6' 6" and over 230 pounds, Skenes checks every box that you'd look for in a future MLB ace.

Why the Twins Will Draft Him
It should be as simple as "if, by act of divine intervention, the teams drafting in the first four spots forget about Paul Skenes, the Twins need to rush to the podium to draft him." Skenes would cost a king's ransom on the open market, so getting six years of service for pennies on the dollar is one of the greatest heists in sports. He'd be an organizational asset that could, potentially, net more than any other signal player in all of baseball (when you factor in cost in terms of prospects and what a team would have to pay him contractually). It would be a no-brainer. If he's available: Draft the man. Pay the man. And, probably, consider pitching him during the stretch run if you need to.

(Many of these same things can be said about Dylan Crews, too, who we didn't profile. The likelihood of either player falling to the Twins is relatively slim.)

 

Why the Twins Won’t Draft Him
Well, because Skenes will be gone. The Nationals, according to rumors, can't wait to draft him at #2 and the only thing that would make them reconsider is if Dylan Crews is available. In that event, it would be hard to imagine that the Tigers would pass on him at #3 (and wouldn't that be lovely in the American League Central). 

A Skenes-tumble would, for all intents and purposes, have to do with excessive salary demands and, though the Twins are one of the most well-equipped teams to meet anyone's demands, it's possible that they would balk at punting the rest of the draft to draft him. Personally, I don't think it would be outrageous to sacrifice other picks to pay Skenes more, but I'm not running a draft room or signing the checks.

Unless a catastrophic injury gets in the way, Paul Skenes will be a multi-time All-Star, a perennial Cy Young contender and will make hundreds of millions of dollars for being really, really good at throwing a baseball.

What do you think of Paul Skenes as a prospect? How would you feel about the Twins taking him fifth overall in the Draft? Join the discussion in the comments.

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Previous Draft Articles and Profiles
Walker Jenkins
Max Clark
Noble Meyer
Rhett Lowder
Jacob Gonzalez
Jacob Wilson
Wyatt Langford
Kyle Teel
Chase Dollander

Nygaard Mock Draft v.2

Consensus Big Board Profiles: 26-50
Consensus Big Board Profiles: 1-25

View full article

[Mike Sixel]

No idea why you bothered with this one. Zero chance he's available. If he is, three or four Gms should lose their jobs. 

[Dman]

I think we all would love to see him fall to the Twins but hard to see him fall past Washington let alone the Tigers or Texas.  All teams crave a fast moving ace type pitcher if he makes it to 5 my head might explode.

[DocBauer]

Economics and game playing in the draft are a real thing. And SOMEBODY may throw a monkey wrench in to the draft based on those two factors. And I can see reasons why Pittsburgh might grab Crews 1st, despite rumors. I can even, barely, see them drafting one of the HS kids 1st overall. And maybe, maybe, the Pirates make a HS bat move to play the "later in the draft" game. And maybe, maybe, the Nationals decide Crews is Harper #2 and can't resist a more "sure thing" to be a potential generational talent and passion on Skenes. 

So then comes the rebuilding Tigers. Are they scared of $8-9M for their 1st round pick? In one of the deepest drafts in years, do they grab someone like Langford, also a stud prospect, or maybe the best HS arm in the draft for 5yrs in Meyer...playing the long game for a potentially amazing return...and save $ for later picks to add to their rebuild?

A ton of IF's and maybe's that actually make some sense. But then come the Rangers at #4. And their checkbook has been wide open the past couple of years. It hasn't paid off until this season. The ONLY way they don't pick Skenes is due to so much $ on the books already they don't want $8-9M on their first pick, OR, they just love their rotation and upcoming arms and want to add a stud bat to their system. 

SUDDENLY, Skenes falls in the Twins lap for around $9M. They have the $ to do it. Hell, they can STILL spend $ on the first 3 or 4 rounds and then draft a collection of inexpensive senior signs with at least some potential. Maybe a couple junior signs with a couple thousand more, which they've been good at.

And then, Santa Clause brings toys to everyone who is and isn't a Twins fan next Christmas. LOL

Skenes should be part of this series as he's one of the top 5. But at least one of the previous top 4 drafting teams will pick him, along with Crews. And while there MIGHT be a surprise pick, MAYBE two, the odds of either Skenes or Crew going to 5 are just not worth discussing.

[Cory Engelhardt]

It’s fun to dream :)

[AlwaysinModeration]

Skenes has had an amazing spring.  It was exceptional, and it sure seems like he is going to become a great MLB pitcher, quickly. But…

It’s only one season.  Could he revert to his prior performance level he put up for the two previous years at the Air Force?   (He was also mediocre on the Cape in limited innings.)

He struck out 15/9IP at LSU.  That rate is going to tick down.  He gave up 5H/9, and 0.5HR/9 last year.  Those numbers are going to get worse.

He only has two above average pitches.  Usually players with two pitches are “destined for the bullpen.”

A year ago, Dollander was considered way better than Skenes.  Now Skenes is considered way better than Dollander.  Which is it?

I think the answer is Skenes, and if the Twins wind up with him, I’d be thrilled.  But there are legit reasons to not be 100% certain Skenes is a slam dunk.

 

[Beast]

If the Twins FO, or any other for that matter, balks at taking him because of they’re concerned about the salary, they should be fired immediately.

Give me Skenes over any other player in the draft by a mile.  I wouldn’t trade Skenes for any two of the other top 5.  I’d gladly punt the rest of the draft for him.

[Jocko87]

Ermagahd J. R.! Is that Scott Boras' music? Yer damn right it is!

The talent is all on display, with 5 potential #1 types the agents will set the order I'm afraid. Still no way Skenes or Crews falls to 5 but it will be interesting.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

No idea why you bothered with this one. Zero chance he's available. If he is, three or four Gms should lose their jobs. 

The plan is mapped out pretty well in advance. And Skenes was the 10th in case someone else jumped into the picture late. It didn't happen... and it's enjoyable to read about Paul Skenes and watch Paul Skenes and dive deeper into Paul Skenes. 

So... yeah, it's a pretty slim chance he'll be around. But there were mock drafts not that long ago that had him falling to the Twins and crazy things happen. I, for one, would support this crazy thing.

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

The plan is mapped out pretty well in advance. And Skenes was the 10th in case someone else jumped into the picture late. It didn't happen... and it's enjoyable to read about Paul Skenes and watch Paul Skenes and dive deeper into Paul Skenes. 

So... yeah, it's a pretty slim chance he'll be around. But there were mock drafts not that long ago that had him falling to the Twins and crazy things happen. I, for one, would support this crazy thing.

Sorry was trying to be funny or something. Your coverage is amazing. 

[jmlease1]

Seems like a zero chance he slips to 5, but I'd take him in a heartbeat if he's there. He doesn't have 2 above average pitches, he has 2 PLUS pitches in that fastball and slider. The changeup is useable now, if it becomes average to above average then he could be ridiculous (and changeups frequently take a little time to develop, so it's not surprising his isn't great yet).

Terrific prospect. No chance he's here at 5, but I would enjoy seeing Twins execs stampeding to the podium to draft him if someone else screwed up (possibly trampling Manfred in the process).

[Otaknam]

I would love it if Skenes is available! He would be the only person in the organization who would be considered an sure ace. The problem w any pitcher, especially one with a triple digit fastball is the possibility of TJOHN. So that has to be factored into the equation. Regardless, run to the podium if he is there!

[TopGunn#22]

To me, Skenes is the #1 overall prospect and should at minimum be pitching out of someone's bullpen this season.  He doesn't need to start off at AA.  Get that arm into the big leagues now.  If he fell to #5 SPRINT to the podium!!  

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, Beast said:

If the Twins FO, or any other for that matter, balks at taking him because of they’re concerned about the salary, they should be fired immediately.

Give me Skenes over any other player in the draft by a mile.  I wouldn’t trade Skenes for any two of the other top 5.  I’d gladly punt the rest of the draft for him.

Well there's a little more to it than that. The Rangers, for example, have a total bonus pool of $9,925,300 this year. If Skenes is demanding 9 mil (not saying he is, just an example) that'd leave them with less than 1 mil to sign the rest of their first 10 rounds of picks. It'd be one heck of a bold move for their FO to give 1 guy 9 out of 10 mil available to them. Unless they're planning to go over their bonus pool and incur the penalties associated with that.

[Brandon]

I mean…. I guess if he’s available we should consider drafting him.  Yeah, he is definitely a possibility worth considering.