Twins Daily Draft Preview: Jacob Wilson

[Jamie Cameron]

Jacob Wilson is a shortstop prospect for Grand Canyon who has divided opinion during the pre-draft process. The Twins selecting fifth overall puts them in position to pick a player at the back end of the consensus top five prospects. Increasingly it looks as though the players available in that range may be prep bats. There are some who believe the Twins would rather pick a fast moving, college bat, with names like Jacob Gonzalez, Kyle Teel, and Jacob Wilson being linked with the organization in recent weeks.

Image courtesy of Annie Rice, Avalanche Journal

Over the next two weeks, we're going to be providing you with profiles of 10 players the Twins could take with the fifth pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Today, we'll look at Grand Canyon shortstop Jacob Wilson.

Who is He?
Jacob Wilson is the son of Jack Wilson, the former Pirates shortstop. He just completed his junior season playing shortstop for Grand Canyon University. Opinion is split on Wilson, who has rankings from the single digits all the way to the low 20s, and whose offensive profile contains a certain amount of risk. Wilson currently sits at 21st overall on the Consensus Board.

Why the Twins Will Draft Him
Wilson has the best bat to ball skills in the draft and likely the best hit tool. In 2023 he had a 92 Contact%. Throughout his final two seasons at GCU (438 at bats), he struck out 12 times. That is elite, Arraezian bat to ball skills. In 2023, Wilson produced a .411/.461/.635 line with six home runs. Despite the exceptional hit tool, Wilson’s on base ability is limited by a lack of walks (9 BB% in 2023). There’s limited power in his profile, he has average speed and his lack of quickness means he may move off shortstop long term where the bar for offensive production will be higher. Still, Wilson is an elite hitter who should move quickly as a professional and make short work of the lower minors.

Why the Twins Won’t Draft Him
Simply, because Wilson is a risky offensive profile. He doesn’t offer power, speed, or defensive certainty at shortstop. Wilson doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard (100.2 mph 90th percentile exit velocity), and he chases too much to maximize his on base potential. The Twins front office has no desire to pick fifth in the Draft on a consistent basis, I’d like to see them take a swing on a prospect with more upside. Even if Wilson’s incredible bat to ball skills translate to professional baseball, he has the upside of a solid everyday major league player. The Twins system is currently lacking high end talent beyond Brooks Lee and Emmanuel Rodriguez. Wilson is a safe choice that Twins shouldn’t make in July.

What do you think of Jacob Wilson as a prospect? How would you feel about him being the fifth overall pick by the Twins?

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[DFlow]

Personally I don’t buy into the under slot mentality when there are well graded prospects still on the board. The Twins passed on Corbin Carroll (a top ten projected pick) for a helium pick in Cavaco that has ended horrifically all to save a buck. This draft has five elite talents. Just take the elite talent and don’t f*ck it up.

[Mike Sixel]

Please, no.  

[JoeCool]

Needs to be one of the top 5 elite prospects. Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins or Clark.  

These opportunities do not present themselves very often. We need to grab one of those 5 that is available. If more than one of them is available then we will be in for a treat for years to come.  I doubt Crews, Skene or Langford are still there when we pick, but I think Clark has a slight edge over Jenkins. 

If we pick anyone else we are crazy. 

[Jamie Cameron]

Totally agree. We are just 'covering all the bases' with these pieces. Not trying to get anyone wound up here 🤣

[DocBauer]

Echoing complete NO on Wilson. IF he can stick at SS, his bat might end up Arraez like, but the BB have to rise, and he needs at least a little more pop so ML hitters don't overwhelm him.

To me he's a late 1st rounder based on amazing bat to ball skills, maybe even a 2nd rounder. There's just not enough projection there for a pick this high. It's still Clark or Langford, maybe, and that's the smart move. Unless they just love and believe in Teel or either of the second 2 pitching options.

Keep it smart and simple, grab the best prospect at 5 and don't play it cute!

[Cory Engelhardt]

Pass

[Roaddog]

No. Just no

[Jocko87]

Also no, but in italics.

I'm all for stocking up on shortstops but start that in the 2nd round.  He's not a top 5 type in any ranking I've seen. I'd rather take a swing at Dollander if they are taking a diversion. This pick is for a cornerstone player.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

No.

[Dman]

I will say that I prefer Teel for #5 if it is between him and Jenkins and I think Jenkins is the one who will fall to #5.  Still I am going to go against the consensus of the board here and say I really like Wilson.  Bat to ball skills are extremely important in making it to MLB.  Yes power plays as well but if you can't hit the ball it all goes sideways.  Wilson doesn't quite have Arraez type skill because he doesn't walk enough and that is a problem but one that will likely be rectified and while I don't see 20 HR power from his bat I think that like they did with Steer they can help Wilson get to more pop.  

He has a 65 hit tool runs well and has a strong arm.  If he had more power projection he probably would be a 5 tool player.  He is going to go top 10 as it is maybe even top 6.  Yes I like the other 4 players better than Wilson and I have Teel above him only because it is so hard to find a good hitting catcher with Teels athleticism.  Teel is a bit of a unicorn catcher if you ask me but I still feel there is a case for Wilson and who ever does get him might be getting an All Star bat with very good defense.

Personally I like guys that don't strike out as they put the ball in play and it is a lot more fun to watch than then the K prone Twins.  Neto had a similar profile and he was the first to MLB.  Don't sell Wilson short.

[SteveLV]

I like him a lot at 34!

[Otaknam]

No on Wilson because he doesn’t have multiple plus tools. I do understand how they might want to draft a fast rising college player at five over a high school player. But just choose their highest ranking player still on the board with the pick.

[tony&rodney]

Thank you for all of the draft coverage.

Those of us who watched (via TV/internet) a few college games have seen a number of these players in the past few months. Crews, Skenes, and Langford have stood out. Picking at #5 should force the Twins to choose an athletic talent with superstar potential and a high floor. Yes, we all know that even the best choices can fail. Players like Wilson or Gonzalez are legitimate picks at the end of the first round. I can imagine Teel or Lowder, but the consensus for months has been for the Twins to gobble up whomever is left of the top five. Just do it.

[weitz41]

Good pick at 34 or even 13 (our original spot?) at 5 taking a high floor/low ceiling player is poor talent acquisition...@ 5 you hope for a star not hope for a utility/2nd baseman/leftfielder when it's all said and done.

Gifted the #5 pick and then wasting it on a safe pick is like building a roster of 3 true outcome players and wondering why the whole team struggles....

[2wins87]

I'm with others that I'm not particularly enamored with Wilson.

I do think contact is the most important part of the most important tool, but it's unlikely to carry him to a particularly high level.

There are other players in the majors that can make contact as consistently as Arraez, but Arraez is still a unicorn in his ability to turn that contact into such a high batting average, not to mention that he's also at the high end of the plate discipline part of the hit tool as well.

Maybe Wilson could also be a unicorn, but I'd agree that it would seem like a high floor/low ceiling pick.

[Maybebaby]

Just don't get cute and show everyone how you smart you think you are just go with.  A top 5 prospect Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins or Clark.  Don't reach for another Saboto.