Twins 3, Blue Jays 2: Offensive Malaise Continues, Dominant Pitching Wins Out in Extras

[Whitey333]

Garlick situation is laughable.  You are counting on Kiriloff for the future but replace him with a guy that should not be on the roster.  Garlick is an automatic  out.  His strike out rate is nearing 39%.  If

[joefish]

15 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I was not too confident going into the 10th with Jeffers on second and realizing they had no bench move to make.  His base running ended up getting it done though.

A faster base runner makes it look easy, but getting to 3rd on Lewis's dribbler was really key. Given his speed he had to get a good break on it from second, which he did. And he was just fast enough to make the catcher hurry fielding the hop on a pretty good throw on the sac fly.

Who would have expected Jeffers to have so many pivotal moments on the base paths?

No one. 

[stringer bell]

Congratulations to Royce Lewis for the four-hit game in which he didn't hit a single ball hard. He put the ball in play and good results happened. His slow roller in the tenth keyed the inning.

[terrydactyls]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Congratulations to Royce Lewis for the four-hit game in which he didn't hit a single ball hard. He put the ball in play and good results happened. His slow roller in the tenth keyed the inning.

Yeah but he never swung for the fences!!  That's NOT Twins baseball.

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Unlike others, I had every opportunity to watch the game, but opted not to for a multitude of reasons, but namely my desire to maintain positive mental health.

Great to see losing streak end.  Saying that a couple of questions anyone wishing to answer:

1.  Why was Gray pulled after 5 IP with his pitch count at only 76?

2.  Not easy to answer, but have to ask:  Why on earth would Baldelli insert (AAAA) Garlick into the 3- hole, while Lewis is stuck hitting 7th?

What has Garlick done (other than NOT being Kepler) to be in spot when he was 3-19 (.158) against LH pitching BEFORE the game started?  With his 0-2 against Kikuchi (down to .143 with an abysmal SLG %) how long must we endure him on this team while Wallner continues to RAKE at SP?

One other question---that I'd appreciate anyone answering:

What is the number of plate appearances that Polanco needs to reach for his 2024 vesting option of $10.5m to require Twins to bring him back?

Twins are already locked into nearly $70 million next season for 5 players---Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, P. Lopez and Paddack.

I've been a strong Polanco fam for years, but with his continued injuries and other/cheaper alternatives he'll be brought back.

I'll try because it sounds like fun. It'll be heavy on assumptions obviously so grains of salt are necessary to digest.  

1. Gray got himself into a pretty thick jam in the 5th so Moran had to get up and get ready. Rocco would have no choice here but to crank someone up. Once a pitcher gets lathered up in the bullpen, most managers across the league... if not all... will put that pitcher into the game so they don't waste the warm up session. No one should argue this decision. 

2. Garlick has been a point of contention amongst many Twinsdaily posters including myself. My guess on why Rocco placed Garlick in the 3 spot instead of Lewis. Garlick has a decent track record against lefties while Lewis doesn't have much of a track record against anyone at the major league level. Garlick has 208 plate appearances vs left handed pitchers with a career .799 OPS. The numbers you quote are a small sample size of 22 PA's this year only. 

Rocco seems to place more faith in larger samples over time and he consistently doesn't seem to react to smaller samples over the course of a season. Some feel this is a smart thing to do... I'm not one of those but I can understand if this is what he is thinking and he seems to be thinking that. Taylor still hits 9th even if he is third in home runs on the team. Correa has not dropped down in the batting order despite deserving to be dropped down in the batting order. Kepler gets pretty good lineup order treatment. I want to be clear... I do not agree with Rocco on this but this is his thing and he's been doing it this way for a long long time... I don't think he is going to change.  

With Garlick I get why he batted third... I don't understand why he is on the roster at all... but, the other thing that is becoming undeniably obvious with Rocco (Front office?) is that the lefty/righty matchup is an unbreakable rule that trumps all other considerations and Rocco is consistently harder on lefty hitters facing left handed pitchers then he is on right handed hitters facing right handed pitchers. I don't agree with this when the team is struggling as hard as it has been but in fairness... the two left handers that the Jays deployed last night (Kikuchi and Mayza) have significant split differential... they are quite good against left handers and not quite as good against right handed pitchers. It isn't just the batters splits that needs to be taken into account if you are going to be a strict platoon practitioner and Rocco is a strict platoon practitioner.  

My counter point is... it didn't do us much good last night and it hasn't all year. WE NEED HITTERS Period. Not letting Kirilloff face left handed pitchers is a bad idea for his development and he is simply our best hitter right now.  

3. Polanco... He needs 550 AB's this season for his option to vest. He won't make it to 550 AB's but the team will probably resign him anyway. They have a club option on him in 2025 before he hits free agency in 2026. He has decent trade value with two years of control so letting him go for nothing would make no sense. If they needed his 10 million to make other acquisitions... they would trade him and get something in return. 

That was my attempt at answering those questions. 

[Blyleven2011]

10 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Unlike others, I had every opportunity to watch the game, but opted not to for a multitude of reasons, but namely my desire to maintain positive mental health.

Great to see losing streak end.  Saying that a couple of questions anyone wishing to answer:

1.  Why was Gray pulled after 5 IP with his pitch count at only 76?

2.  Not easy to answer, but have to ask:  Why on earth would Baldelli insert (AAAA) Garlick into the 3- hole, while Lewis is stuck hitting 7th?

What has Garlick done (other than NOT being Kepler) to be in spot when he was 3-19 (.158) against LH pitching BEFORE the game started?  With his 0-2 against Kikuchi (down to .143 with an abysmal SLG %) how long must we endure him on this team while Wallner continues to RAKE at SP?

One other question---that I'd appreciate anyone answering:

What is the number of plate appearances that Polanco needs to reach for his 2024 vesting option of $10.5m to require Twins to bring him back?

Twins are already locked into nearly $70 million next season for 5 players---Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, P. Lopez and Paddack.

I've been a strong Polanco fam for years, but with his continued injuries and other/cheaper alternatives he'll be brought back.

I too opted not to watch the game but caught it on the radio and just finished the fish I also caught ,,,

It was a win win situation last night ...

[stringer bell]

To tag on to Brian's post, I believe Garlick had had success against Kikuchi, something like three for five with two homers. 

The Twins really need a corner outfield upgrade.  

[jorgenswest]

The biggest benefit to putting best hitters at the top of the order is the extra plate appearance. Garlick is not one of the best hitters but he was never going to get that extra plate appearance. Falvey has him on the roster because of his ability to hit lefties… an ability he hasn’t shown yet in the small sample.

In that sense it does make sense to bat Garlick near the top of the line up. He is only in the game as long as Kikuchi is in the game and likely for two plate appearances. Those two plate appearance might come in the 3rd spot or the 8th spot. By placing him in the third spot they have Kirilloff or Larnach to take that place in the middle lineup. It is that player who will likely get any extra plate appearance.

If you are imaging the end of game batting order as you construct a line up it might be reasonable to put your platoon right handed bat higher up in the lineup so that your left handed batter has a possibility of that extra at bat against a right handed pitcher.

It turns out the only two players hitting the ball were Lewis and Taylor. It was lucky they were close together in the lineup or the Twins probably don’t win. The platoon 6 of Solano, Kirilloff, Garlick, Larnach, Farmer and Kepler combined for one Solano hit. Baldelli put those players in a position they were most likely to succeed and they didn’t follow through.

 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

The Gray question has already been answered, but as has happened to him repeatedly in his recent starts, his command completely fell apart in the 5th.

I listened to Randball's podcast introducing the new Twins beat writer for the Strib, Bobby Nightengale Jr. Apparently he has covered the Reds. He said the Reds struggled with trying to get Gray past the 5th inning. Early in his career with the A's, back in 2014 & 2015 he averaged about 6.7 innings a start. By 2019, an excellent season with the Reds, that was down to about 5.6 innings per start. That's about where we sit now. Sonny is solidly built, keeps himself in great shape and the intense competitor knows how to pitch. He is, however, a 33 year old 5' 10" starting pitcher. 

[John Belinski]

Glad the Twins won, but it was a close game. Still waiting for Wallner to be called up since we need hitters.

[jkcarew]

12 hours ago, Squirrel said:

It’s interesting that they are using Duran for more than one inning. Will this then limit his availability or are they purposely stretching him out a little? I hope his shoulder holds up, though, considering how hard he throws.

Win today, takes your chances tomorrow (and the day after).

I don’t think they are purposely stretching him beyond a 4-6 out type of thing. He was pretty inefficient in this game, though.

To me, 6 outs should always be in play with Duran. Having said that, I don’t think 38-pitch appearances are sustainable. I think that’s definitely undesirable, but I wouldn’t abandon the willingness to attempt the strategy in games like this.,,for it to work he has to be more efficient than he was in this game, though, IMO.

[Squirrel]

10 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Win today, takes your chances tomorrow (and the day after).

I don’t think they are purposely stretching him beyond a 4-6 out type of thing. He was pretty inefficient in this game, though.

To me, 6 outs should always be in play with Duran. Having said that, I don’t think 38-pitch appearances are sustainable. I think that’s definitely undesirable, but I wouldn’t abandon the willingness to attempt the strategy in games like this.,,for it to work he has to be more efficient than he was in this game, though, IMO.

Agree. I like the idea behind the usage but yes, as you said, he has to be more efficient

[Matt Braun]

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

... call on George Springer for a little more of the clutch magic he has worked in his legendary MLB career.

Springer is a good player, but to call his career "legendary" is laying it on a bit too thick! By that standard, Michael A. Taylor is legendary. A good player, and happy to have him, but not yet a legend. 

He's a borderline Hall of famer and one of the best postseason performers in recent history; I'd call that legendary. 

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

He's a borderline Hall of famer and one of the best postseason performers in recent history; I'd call that legendary. 

He's on the borderline for putting himself into the HoF discussion if he has a few more years at his established level of performance.  At age 33, that's not a sure thing.  And if you look at the proverbial Bus Test, I think HoF voters will see him below the borderline level.

[awmonahan]

That MAT pick up has been a godsend. He's not an All Star, but he plays.