Jovani Moran Deserves Respect

[Cody Pirkl]

In 2022, Jovani Moran was sneaky good despite getting yo-yoed between levels. So good in fact, that looking back, it seems like Moran should have earned a more consistent role. That should change in 2023.

Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Jovani Moran is far from a Twins top prospect. He’s slowly worked his way up the system since being drafted in 2015 and will be 26 years old in 2023. He averaged just a bit above 93 mph on his fastball and lacks the nasty wipeout slider to truly dominate same handed hitters as you normally see in left handed relievers. He’s not currently an impactful part of the 2023 Twins pitching staff, but he could be.

By now we all know the deal with Jovani Moran. He walks too many hitters and his main out pitch is a changeup, making him almost more of a right handed reliever due to the pitches harsh splits against right handed hitters (.458 OPS allowed in 2022). He’s a bit of an enigma due to his lack of velocity and pitch mix that still resulted in an incredible 32.9% K rate. With being somewhat of a unicorn, can Moran continue succeeding at the MLB level if he’s given a true opportunity in 2023?

We’ve seen the worst of Moran, at times appearing to have no idea how to find the strike zone. This is easily the number one concern, as on occasion we’ve seen him walk the bases loaded and look completely uncompetitive. It’s always been a part of his game and his 11% BB rate in 2022 was a bit of a tightrope act. Consider however that that 11% rate was his best since 2019 in AA, and was a significant improvement on his 18.4% BB rate in 2021. Moran appears to have improved, and while his career has been up and down, it’s at least encouraging to see.

Some would argue that Moran’s 2.21 ERA in 2022 was unsustainable not only because of his walk rates, but because he performed much worse with a 6.00 ERA in AAA which could be the true indicator of his abilities. Consider however that the 6.00 ERA in AAA was backed up by a 3.01 FIP and 2.75 xFIP. Moran had an unsustainable 65.4 left on base % and 16.7 homer to flyball rate. While he walked more batters with the Saints, it looks like what could go wrong did. Furthermore, his 2.21 ERA with the Twins was backed up by a 2.28 xERA, 1.78 FIP, and 2.88 xFIP. These aren’t predictive stats, but looking at his ERAs in AAA and at the MLB level, it sure seems the latter was the more legitimate outcome.

It’s hard to call Moran the second lefty in the Twins bullpen, and he certainly shouldn’t be trusted in high leverage immediately. Moran has earned an opportunity to be a bullpen regular however. Any pitch with a near 50% whiff rate should immediately earn a pitcher an extended look, and Moran’s changeup has posted this mark in both of his MLB seasons. In 2022 the pitch allowed a .101/.158/.139 line, and his fastball was a great pitch as well. He also gets a decent amount of ground balls and he’s allowed just 14 homers in his entire 200+ professional innings. With such standout characteristics in his profile, Moran should easily be ahead of relievers such as Trevor Megill for low leverage spots.

This isn’t a call to make Moran a featured reliever out of the Twins bullpen in 2023. He has several elite skills however and if he can improve on his walk rate just a bit more, he’s flashed the ability to thrive in a high leverage role. Being used as he was in 2022 however will certainly not bring that possibility to fruition. As a home grown talent on a team that doesn’t invest in the bullpen, there’s simply no reason to continue bouncing him in between the majors and minors while giving fringe MLB pitchers opportunities.

2023 should bring opportunity for Jovani Moran who arguably should’ve earned more of it in 2022. If he even hits his 60th percentile, the Twins would have a unique weapon out of the bullpen and would make playing the matchups an absolute nightmare for opposing clubs. It’s time for Jovani Moran to get some respect.

View full article

[roger]

Yes he does, Cody.  And I expect he thanks you.

[Dman]

I have been watching Moran in the system for what seems like forever and have always been impressed with his K rate but the Walks eventually just brought my hopes for him down.  I would not trust him in high leverage just yet but if he can harness his stuff just a bit more he could reach elite status.  Been saying that for a long time and hopefully he is ready to prove he has the consistency to make it happen.  We need all the great pen arms we can find.

[4twinsJA]

I am excited about Moran, agree he is not ready for high leverage opportunities but definitely should have a solid hold of a position in the Twins bullpen. Moran is probably never going to have closer type stuff but I look for him to develop into a solid  7th or 8th inning set up man.

[Brandon]

He will get chances.  Looks like he is a few minor adjustments away… mostly in the control area but does he have a third useable pitch to throw to lefties once in a while to mix it up?

[Doctor Gast]

Do you think as hitters get to know him. he'll have some recession this year? Even if he improves his walks. 

[nicksaviking]

I really want to Moran to end up being a homegrown bullpen staple, but we so rarely see the guys with control issues turn it around. By "we", I mean Twins fans, maybe other teams have more success than we do.

[jmlease1]

I can't help it, I love pitchers with a filthy changeup. And boy does Moran have one!

A little wildness is survivable for relievers when they can hunt Ks like Moran can. But he can't totally have it fall apart. 

[tony&rodney]

I would put him in the top six, so a keeper.

[Macalesterbombasquad]

You have to love that bugs bunny changeup, Moran can be a major part of our pitching pipeline for the pen if his control improves this year. Honestly I would keep him and the AJ Alexy over Pagan. 

[gman]

I've been checking up on Moran for quite a few years now and with his results it always seemed he should have moved a lot faster than he has. He has walked quite a few but his minor league career whip is only 1.11 and 1.21  whip combined with only 14 homers aloud in 298 career innings, seems to indicate he has been relatively unhittable.

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Do you think as hitters get to know him. he'll have some recession this year? Even if he improves his walks. 

The thing with a really good changeup is that it can be nearly impossible to distinguish from a fastball out of the hand so hitters may always be guessing fastball or changeup.

Probably an ERA/peripherals around 2.00 is still the result of some significant luck, but I don't see why his pitches can't continue to work as long as he can command them reasonably well.

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, gman said:

I've been checking up on Moran for quite a few years now and with his results it always seemed he should have moved a lot faster than he has. He has walked quite a few but his minor league career whip is only 1.11 and 1.21  whip combined with only 14 homers aloud in 298 career innings, seems to indicate he has been relatively unhittable.

He always had the changeup, but the fastball was more like 90 or 91 when he was in the low minors vs 93+ today, so that's part of why he wasn't pushed fast early on.

[jimbo92107]

Young lefty RP with an okay heater, plus a great changeup, 2.21 ERA, improving a little every year. What was the question??

Padres had a guy like that, but right-handed. He couldn't make it as a starter, so Trevor Hoffman eventually became a closer. Did pretty good.

[saviking]

I have followed Moran in our system as well and would love for his performance in the bigs last year not to be a fluke but I really struggled with his implosions every time we sent him back to AAA

[JD-TWINS]

Moran has decent fastball - great change - left handed……he’s on the staff. Megill has a plus fastball - a plus curveball…….he’s on the staff. They both could be devastating with better strike/ball command ……that’s like saying if a golfer could only putt he’d be better - I get it! The other move toward dominance is for them both to develop a third pitch & improve command.,;

If Moran could develop a cutter or some off-speed pitch moving left to right, even just to SHOW, he’d be way more effective. Same with Megill, a cutter or a change-up to SHOW would make his other 2 pitches un-hittable. 

Luzardo or some other pitcher acquisition to force Maeda to Pen would be ideal. 

Signing Fulmer or Chafin from FA would be cherry on top!!

 

[DocBauer]

I've seen enough of Moran to be impressed, over and beyond his AAA numbers, which I can't explain.

I think he's a legit 6th-7th inning option who can be solid. Now, if he can tweak his slider a little bit, maybe it becomes more of a slurve...and the Twins are generally very good at working on sliders and adaptations of such...he could be a real weapon by being stronger against LH hitters. Good to serious BP weapon is tweaking that 3rd offering.

I've been championing the idea of Chaffin, or Hand, as another LH BP option to work with Thielbar. And I still think that would be smart. But I think Moran is a keeper.