My evolving opinion on where the Twins stand

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, The_Phantom said:

Why does trading Correa need to be a firesale? That’s such a massive gap in logic?

 
Correas contract is unique. Very very unlikely he doesn’t opt out, which means in 3 months we might maybe get a supplemental pick for him. You’d rather have that than a couple higher end prospects well on their way?
 
Trade him to a team that has lots of money and they might sign a new contract and extend him, or maybe he’ll opt in with them if it looks like a team that is actually willing to make some acquisitions. Either way, we’ve gotten a benefit out of him. 
 
but to the other point - 
 
You know what makes less sense than signing a $35 million player just to trade him for assets? Signing a $35 million player and then picking up scraps for a pitching staff and throwing out Pagan to continue to blow saves in August. Signing that kind of a contract means you should be going all in. That’s option A.
 
They’re not doing that, that ship has sailed. the best arms are already off the table.
 
Since they’re not doing that, you should then get pieces back for him. There’s no good reason to hold on to him with this current roster, there’s virtually no chance they win a WS.
 
this is not an opinion Of “oh good we signed Correa we should immediately trade him”. It’s “oh good we signed correa, now let’s see put together a solid set of arms. No? You’re not willing to risk next year for good arms? Then let’s BOLSTER next year by trading away the guy that won’t be here anyway”.

 
that doesn’t mean you have to have a firesale  

Trading Correa does nothing. We are not going to get any return for him, at least what he is worth and what anyone thinks. Specifically, who should our trade partner be and who/what do we get in return? Don’t just tell me ‘a team with a lot of money who can extend him.’ Who, specifically, is this team, and what do you think they give us in return, And who plays SS? Trading Correa also signals we are giving up. He is one of our best players, one of the best SS in the league, what does this say to the team and the fans? To me it says we’re giving up on the season, while in first with a lot left to play. Not only is that incredibly demoralizing to the team and its fans, if I were a player, I’d be actively looking/trying to go elsewhere.

And how/why did this thread turn into another trade/don’t trade Correa thread?

[nicksaviking]

Correa's reported influence on Jose Miranda has been worth 10x anything the Twins could get back in a trade.

[The_Phantom]

23 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I don't think the Twins get a pick if/when Correa opts out.

 

Who cares? They aren't trading Correa (and keep on mind he has a limited no trade clause this year) nor should they.

Once again, I never said they should go out of their way to trade Correa. I said IF they aren’t planning on getting some legit pitching they should move him and get what they can for him.

 
They took option A and got some pitching that looks like it should help in a major way. Which was the right call. 

[The_Phantom]

23 hours ago, Squirrel said:

 

And how/why did this thread turn into another trade/don’t trade Correa thread?

Because you all got super defensive and reactive about it. All I ever said was *IF* there aren’t plans to get legit pitching, THEN they should get what they can for Correa. They got seemingly legit pitching. Which was the right call. But if they didn’t go that way, trading Correa woulda been the right call. Lots of upset reactions to a fairly non inflammatory comment 

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, The_Phantom said:

Because you all got super defensive and reactive about it. All I ever said was *IF* there aren’t plans to get legit pitching, THEN they should get what they can for Correa. They got seemingly legit pitching. Which was the right call. But if they didn’t go that way, trading Correa woulda been the right call. Lots of upset reactions to a fairly non inflammatory comment 

Again, what did you actually think you could get for a guy who has a 70M booby trap hanging around his neck? 

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, The_Phantom said:

Because you all got super defensive and reactive about it. All I ever said was *IF* there aren’t plans to get legit pitching, THEN they should get what they can for Correa. They got seemingly legit pitching. Which was the right call. But if they didn’t go that way, trading Correa woulda been the right call. Lots of upset reactions to a fairly non inflammatory comment 

My point wasn't directed specifically at you, despite my quote. It was more rhetorical, as this wasn't even the general premise of the OP and once again, someone brings it up in the course of discussion and then it becomes a thing. I wish I had copy/pasted it TD somewhere, but Dan Hayes on Twitter mentioned that someone asked Falvey if there was ever a discussion about trading Correa and he scoffed in reply. As he should have. It's all moot now, though ... thankfully. Although, when (if) he walks at the end of the season, I'm sure we will see a thread or two on how we should have traded Correa and gotten something for him. But my question will go unanswered, as it has all season long so far, just what did people expect to get? And from whom? My point all along has been ... we did get something for him this season. I think his impact has been huge. And I'm glad here's here, even for the short time we have him.

[The_Phantom]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Again, what did you actually think you could get for a guy who has a 70M booby trap hanging around his neck? 

 

3 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

But my question will go unanswered, as it has all season long so far, just what did people expect to get? And from whom?

IKF has been bad for the Yankees, offensively. 
 
Didi has been putrid for the Phillies.

 
according to the baseballtradevalues site, Correa is worth 14 “trade points”. That’s the exact same as Steer was. 
 
i don’t think we’d actually get THAT much value. But there’s not much reason to think you couldn’t get someone with 9-10 points of value on that site which are usually guys about ready to come up and contribute. I don’t have time, or really Inclination, to start putting together mock trades with actual names, but there’s no reason to think you would get absolute junk for him 

[Battle ur tail off]

9 minutes ago, The_Phantom said:

 

IKF has been bad for the Yankees, offensively. 
 
Didi has been putrid for the Phillies.

 
according to the baseballtradevalues site, Correa is worth 14 “trade points”. That’s the exact same as Steer was. 
 
i don’t think we’d actually get THAT much value. But there’s not much reason to think you couldn’t get someone with 9-10 points of value on that site which are usually guys about ready to come up and contribute. I don’t have time, or really Inclination, to start putting together mock trades with actual names, but there’s no reason to think you would get absolute junk for him 

You don't trade a stud like that when you are getting back a utility player prospect. Especially in first place. Heck 3 weeks of Correa's play is worth more than the kind of guy they would have got back most likely.

 

You also have to remember, yes, he can opt out, but he is still signed here for next year. That chance alone that he will play here is worth 10x more than any B level prospect they would have gotten back. 

[Squirrel]

26 minutes ago, The_Phantom said:

 

IKF has been bad for the Yankees, offensively. 
 
Didi has been putrid for the Phillies.

 
according to the baseballtradevalues site, Correa is worth 14 “trade points”. That’s the exact same as Steer was. 
 
i don’t think we’d actually get THAT much value. But there’s not much reason to think you couldn’t get someone with 9-10 points of value on that site which are usually guys about ready to come up and contribute. I don’t have time, or really Inclination, to start putting together mock trades with actual names, but there’s no reason to think you would get absolute junk for him 

Yeah ... I don't think a return of 'been bad for' and 'has been putrid' along with a B prospect is getting anything for what we have and could play out the season with, whether in 1st or last place. My opinion is that's way worse than just letting him walk at season's end. But ... I get it ... not everyone agrees, so I think we'll just leave it there. Thanks for playing  

[bean5302]

23 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Correa's reported influence on Jose Miranda has been worth 10x anything the Twins could get back in a trade.

Yeah! Just like Nelson Cruz fixed Miguel Sano!

[bean5302]

Here's my position on the Twins after the trade deadline. The Twins substantially improved and they're essentially in a 3 way tie for the division lead. I still think the White Sox are the substantially more talented team, but I do believe the Twins are better than the Guardians at this point.

Playoffs/Division Win Before Deadline:
White Sox 50%
Guardians 30%
Twins 20%

Playoffs/Division Win After Deadline:
White Sox 45%
Twins 40%
Guardians 15%

[Mike Sixel]

44 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Here's my position on the Twins after the trade deadline. The Twins substantially improved and they're essentially in a 3 way tie for the division lead. I still think the White Sox are the substantially more talented team, but I do believe the Twins are better than the Guardians at this point.

Playoffs/Division Win Before Deadline:
White Sox 50%
Guardians 30%
Twins 20%

Playoffs/Division Win After Deadline:
White Sox 45%
Twins 40%
Guardians 15%

Fangraphs is much more bullish than you....

[PseudoSABR]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs is much more bullish than you....

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/which-teams-improved-the-most-at-the-trade-deadline/

[Battle ur tail off]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Here's my position on the Twins after the trade deadline. The Twins substantially improved and they're essentially in a 3 way tie for the division lead. I still think the White Sox are the substantially more talented team, but I do believe the Twins are better than the Guardians at this point.

Playoffs/Division Win Before Deadline:
White Sox 50%
Guardians 30%
Twins 20%

Playoffs/Division Win After Deadline:
White Sox 45%
Twins 40%
Guardians 15%

Twins - 40

Indians - 30

Sux - 30

I don't see this huge talent disparity that everyone here claims they have over everyone in the division. 

Who exactly are we talking about? They might be equal, but substantially better? I don't see it. 

 

I will take Buxton, Correa, Miranda and Aareaz over any position player on their roster.

Their pitching is better, I will give you that. They have some nice starters. Position player wise though, I see them as about average, maybe slightly above.

 

 

[Brandon]

But what I am most interested in knowing and I think everyone else here is too.  Since this thread is about Mike Sixel's thoughts on the season.  How has his thoughts changed since the trade deadline.  How does he revise his thoughts now the the deadline has past.  We all want to know so we can continue the discussion post trade deadline.

 

[Brandon]

37 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/which-teams-improved-the-most-at-the-trade-deadline/

I like that they have the Twins as the 2nd most improved team behind San Diego.  

and that the Whitesox were the biggest Losers of the deadline.

for some reason, I could live with Cleveland winning the division title.  I would be disappointed.  But not like the Whitesox winning the division disappointed.  That is much more aggrivating.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Brandon said:

But what I am most interested in knowing and I think everyone else here is too.  Since this thread is about Mike Sixel's thoughts on the season.  How has his thoughts changed since the trade deadline.  How does he revise his thoughts now the the deadline has past.  We all want to know so we can continue the discussion post trade deadline.

 

I love that they targeted the worst parts of the team, and added a legit starter and two real RPs. They did not than I thought, but it also cost less than I thought. I can't think of any move I don't like. They are 5  - 10 percent more likely in the playoffs, which is big. And the two biggest moves help next year also, which is large. 

I still like this team more than I love it, as the OF injuries are brutal. It's likely AK is done. Now Garlick is hurt....

My thoughts haven't changed a ton. Good to very good team, especially when the IFt come back, but not elite. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Twins - 40

Indians - 30

Sux - 30

I don't see this huge talent disparity that everyone here claims they have over everyone in the division. 

Who exactly are we talking about? They might be equal, but substantially better? I don't see it. 

 

I will take Buxton, Correa, Miranda and Aareaz over any position player on their roster.

Their pitching is better, I will give you that. They have some nice starters. Position player wise though, I see them as about average, maybe slightly above.

 

 

It's a fairly unanimous opinion across the baseball world the White Sox are more talented.
SP1 - Gray vs. Cease (White Sox)
SP2 - Mahle vs. Lynn (White Sox)
SP3 - Ryan vs. Kopech (White Sox)
SP4 - Archer vs. Giolito (White Sox)
SP5 - Bundy vs. Cueto (White Sox)
C - Grandal vs. Sanchez (Twins)
1B - Arraez vs. Abreu (White Sox)
2B - Polanco vs. Harrison (Twins)
3B - Urshela vs. Moncada (White Sox)
SS - Correa vs. Anderson (White Sox)
LF - Larnach vs. Jimenez (White Sox)
CF - Buxton vs. Robert (Twins)
RF - Kepler vs. Pollock (Twins)
DH - Miranda vs. Vaughn (White Sox)

You could shift the players around a bit, but that's about how I'd break it down.

[nicksaviking]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's a fairly unanimous opinion across the baseball world the White Sox are more talented.
SP1 - Gray vs. Cease (White Sox)
SP2 - Mahle vs. Lynn (White Sox)
SP3 - Ryan vs. Kopech (White Sox)
SP4 - Archer vs. Giolito (White Sox)
SP5 - Bundy vs. Cueto (White Sox)
C - Grandal vs. Sanchez (Twins)
1B - Arraez vs. Abreu (White Sox)
2B - Polanco vs. Harrison (Twins)
3B - Urshela vs. Moncada (White Sox)
SS - Correa vs. Anderson (White Sox)
LF - Larnach vs. Jimenez (White Sox)
CF - Buxton vs. Robert (Twins)
RF - Kepler vs. Pollock (Twins)
DH - Miranda vs. Vaughn (White Sox)

You could shift the players around a bit, but that's about how I'd break it down.

Mahle >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Lynn. Lynn is probably another bad start from just getting released.

Moncada might be the worst batter on the list, he's not better than Urshela or Miranda and no one in the league would trade Miranda for Vaughn.

Correa is better than Anderson too.

Abreu and Arraez couldn't be more different, but both have the exact same OPS this year. Abreu is better at 1B, but Arraez can play other positions. That's a push at worst for Arraez.

[bwillly]

32 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's a fairly unanimous opinion across the baseball world the White Sox are more talented.
SP1 - Gray vs. Cease (White Sox)
SP2 - Mahle vs. Lynn (White Sox)
SP3 - Ryan vs. Kopech (White Sox)
SP4 - Archer vs. Giolito (White Sox)
SP5 - Bundy vs. Cueto (White Sox)
C - Grandal vs. Sanchez (Twins)
1B - Arraez vs. Abreu (White Sox)
2B - Polanco vs. Harrison (Twins)
3B - Urshela vs. Moncada (White Sox)
SS - Correa vs. Anderson (White Sox)
LF - Larnach vs. Jimenez (White Sox)
CF - Buxton vs. Robert (Twins)
RF - Kepler vs. Pollock (Twins)
DH - Miranda vs. Vaughn (White Sox)

You could shift the players around a bit, but that's about how I'd break it down.

Sox definitely have a better staff and an actual ace in Cease, but Lynn is not good and you’re completely wrong on the bats comparison. 
 

adding Mahle dramatically improves our staff, like other than Cease I’d actually say it’s pretty close, our BP is now actually better than the Sox BP, and our lineup is definitely better than theirs. 
 

so yeah. I don’t think it will be easy to win the division necessarily but before these moves it was pretty much a given the twins would fall behind and probably place third place and maybe squeak into a WC spot, now I’d say yeah they still potentially might not win the division but a WC seems pretty likely and I’d say at least a coin flip on winning the division. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 8/2/2022 at 12:35 PM, nicksaviking said:

Correa's reported influence on Jose Miranda has been worth 10x anything the Twins could get back in a trade.

The lobbying for the FO to not trade Miranda under what sounds to be some enticing offers. Really good read by Do

https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-did-not-want-jose-miranda-traded

[Squirrel]

18 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The lobbying for the FO to not trade Miranda under what sounds to be some enticing offers. Really good read by Do

https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-did-not-want-jose-miranda-traded

Reading that, doesn't it make you wonder if Correa just might opt to stay? I mean, I really hope so, but it just doesn't seem possible.

[bean5302]

Tyler Mahle has never, in his career, posted more fWAR in a the same season than Lance Lynn. Ever. It's never happened. It may happen this year since Lynn missed half the season.

Lance Lynn ERA - FIP - xFIP, fWAR
2018 = 4.77 - 4.07 - 3.84, 2.8
2019 = 3.67 - 3.13 - 3.85, 6.7 
2020 = 3.32 - 4.19 - 4.34, 1.4
2021  = 2.69 - 3.32 - 3.82, 4.2
2022 = 6.42 - 4.67 - 3.65, 0.2

Twins fans remembering Lynn as washed up... well, he's generated a stat line of 3.86 ERA, 3.59 FIP 15.3 fWAR from 2018-2022 so far. An average of better than 3 fWAR per season on average, and I expect him to improve this season as the HR/FB rate and luck regression works out.

Here is the Twins starter fWAR by season
2019 = 16.4 vs. Lance Lynn 6.7 (Berrios 4.4 as the Twins leader)
2020 = 6.3 vs. Lance Lynn 1.4 (Maeda 2.1 as the Twins leader)
2021 = 5.8 vs. Lance Lynn 4.2 (Berrios 2.4 as the Twins leader)
2022 = 5.9 vs. Lance Lynn 0.2 (Gray 1.5 as the Twins leader)

Lance Lynn is a bad start from being released with a 3.65 xFIP a 9.25 K/9 and 1.89 BB/9? Oh, plus today's start 6 IP, 8Ks, 0 BBs, 1 ER. Yeah. He's on the edge all right.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

42 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Reading that, doesn't it make you wonder if Correa just might opt to stay? I mean, I really hope so, but it just doesn't seem possible.

It makes all the sense in the world for Correa to opt out after the WS, but that article doesn’t sound like Correa has one foot out the door.

[bunsen82]

Beyond the trades the most interesting thing of the trade deadline is Correa.  He is engaged, passionate and seems to want what is best for the organization.  The fact he was not only lobbying for players to trade for but now has vouched for Miranda twice this season, once to keep him up with the big league team when he struggled and now to say he doesn’t want him traded. He appears to be playing the long game with the Twins and doesn’t seem to want to leave any time soon which is fantastic.   If so I would love to be a fly on the wall at the end of the season.  The best option may be for Correa to not opt out and remain on the team.  Honestly with Lewis injured and rehabbing this would be a great outcome.  We have a long way to go on this but needless to say I am pleasantly surprised.  

[Minny505]

On 8/1/2022 at 9:20 AM, Mike Sixel said:

Hawt take. I'd send Garlick down and call up Cave. I'd play him and or Contreras most games, and send Celestino down for a month. 

That's not even a hawt take. That's what a GM does when they have a mandate from ownership to tank the team so they can  relocate it to Miami.

[Battle ur tail off]

16 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The lobbying for the FO to not trade Miranda under what sounds to be some enticing offers. Really good read by Do

https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-did-not-want-jose-miranda-traded

This is a great article and I love to hear stuff like this. Correa seems to be ultra self aware and understands all the workings of baseball. If his agent wasn't Boras, I would say this kind of article makes it look really good that he stays. Not sure that guy(Boras) will let him though. 

[insagt1]

Correa has not been a stud on the field, like we hoped, but perhaps his value has gone way beyond what goes on between the lines. I think whether he stays depends on how the Twins do the rest of the way. There are so many injuries. And so many players having not so good seasons. But Twins have a lot of games left with Cleveland and Chicago...and thats where the Central will be decided. Its in the Twins hands.

[bunsen82]

Correa has had a very good season,  but nothing like what he had last year.  The other issue is there is more SS coming out than spots available.  This may be one of the few times where Boras says you might be better off staying on the deal you have or the Twins renegotiation the exact same deal again for 3 years and 2 more opt outs.  

[Number3]

31 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

Correa has not been a stud on the field, like we hoped, but perhaps his value has gone way beyond what goes on between the lines. I think whether he stays depends on how the Twins do the rest of the way. There are so many injuries. And so many players having not so good seasons. But Twins have a lot of games left with Cleveland and Chicago...and thats where the Central will be decided. Its in the Twins hands.

And all of those games are in Sep and Oct. None in August. Big majority of the Aug schedule is at Target so really need to at least have a winning record in Aug beginning with at least splitting the Toronto series. BTW, maybe Correa should be a player coach with all of that influence on other players that he has.