Twins Select Connor Prielipp at #48 in the 2022 MLB Draft

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I was watching the MLB Network airing of the draft and Dan O'Dowd had mentioned at 1 point that he'd expect a number of teams to take him off their board completely because they simply wouldn't draft someone off bullpens and no game action for so long. It sounds like a reasonable enough reason for him to have fallen so far. I think the Twins are going to have to work some pool money magic to sign him and Lee, though.

I think those explanations are in sync with the concept of "risk".

I'm coming around more to the idea that bonus demands played a role.  And the two issues are hardly exclusive.  Going over-slot on a player deemed to carry higher risk than average turned off the bean-counters perhaps at those other teams.  Modern analytics boils down to risk-reward.  Our FO shows over and over that they consider injury risk to be somewhat manageable, more so than most other teams, so they'll compute risk-reward differently.  I hope they're right, because it's perhaps my biggest disagreement with them.

Or, maybe, #48 was about the right spot for Prielipp's risk-reward, and some other team was about to take him too, and our Twins wouldn't have touched him at (say) #35 either..

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I think those explanations are in sync with the concept of "risk".

I'm coming around more to the idea that bonus demands played a role.  And the two issues are hardly exclusive.  Going over-slot on a player deemed to carry higher risk than average turned off the bean-counters perhaps at those other teams.  Modern analytics boils down to risk-reward.  Our FO shows over and over that they consider injury risk to be somewhat manageable, more so than most other teams, so they'll compute risk-reward differently.  I hope they're right, because it's perhaps my biggest disagreement with them.

Or, maybe, #48 was about the right spot for Prielipp's risk-reward, and some other team was about to take him too, and our Twins wouldn't have touched him at (say) #35 either..

Yeah, the injury stuff is interesting with this FO. I love Prielipp at 48. I think that's a perfectly fine spot to take a shot on a guy that could've been taken 1-1 had he stayed healthy. Many said his slider was the best individual pitch in the draft and that makes me pretty comfortable that he's at least a bullpen weapon even if his arm can't handle a full starter workload. But he's got Chris Sale upside with his FB/SL combo so I think his incredible upside is a nice balance with Lee being more of a high floor, but not out of this world ceiling at 8. 

Now hopefully he holds up and moves relatively quickly and he replaces Castillo at the front of the rotation in 2024. A guy can dream at least ?‍♂️

[Dman]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd have to think that with the TJ surgery and the tradition of the competitive SEC to abuse their senior arms, Prielipp is pretty unlikely to return to college.

Obviously the bonus is going to be the biggest factor, but Prielipp and his agent have to be thrilled that a team like the Twins, a team that is cautious and innings-mindful with young arms, grabbed him.

I was thinking the same thing last night.  He couldn't go to a better team for taking care of his arm and his future all the way up to the MLB level.  I also think that might be why he agreed to slip as the Twins likely will have to go over slot there.  Hard to say though as there is so much mixed analysis.  If teams really feel he is a reliever in the end then he went right about where some elite relievers go so maybe no extra bonus needed.  Still he couldn't have landed on a better team so I have to believe he signs regardless.

[MMMordabito]

At the risk of sounding uninformed ....

Let's say Porter slips to the 4th round or later for that matter, since he's likely told teams that he's going to school.  Could the Twins draft him knowing that he won't sign and then just use that slot money on Lee/Prielipp?  Or, if they can't sign a player do they lose that slot money?

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

At the risk of sounding uninformed ....

Let's say Porter slips to the 4th round or later for that matter, since he's likely told teams that he's going to school.  Could the Twins draft him knowing that he won't sign and then just use that slot money on Lee/Prielipp?  Or, if they can't sign a player do they lose that slot money?

They would lose the slot money. 

Unless that changed with the updated draft rules.

[ashbury]

10 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

At the risk of sounding uninformed ....

Let's say Porter slips to the 4th round or later for that matter, since he's likely told teams that he's going to school.  Could the Twins draft him knowing that he won't sign and then just use that slot money on Lee/Prielipp?  Or, if they can't sign a player do they lose that slot money?

When you don't sign a draftee, that exact amount of bonus pool money is taken away.

[MN_ExPat]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I think Prielipp will need a large signing bonus for the Twins to sign him, because if the assessments of Prielipp are accurate, he could bet on himself, and opt to stay another year at Alabama, and become a top 10 draft selection in 2023. Here's hoping the Twins already have this negotiated with Prielipp's agent. QUESTION: Does college baseball have the same rules as college basketball, where if a college basketball player signs with an agent, he becomes ineligible to play collegiately. If not, why the difference? 

I will have to look into further, but I believe that as long as the player doesn't sign a contract with the MLB team he is free to return to college (at least in baseball ?‍♂️).

Also, teams aren't generally going to draft a player, especially these days from what I've seen and read, without have the framework for an agreement in place.  So here's to hoping he's in Ft. Myers soon .

[MN_ExPat]

1 hour ago, NorthernAggression said:

You can go over up to 5% and pay 75% tax. Over 5% and you start losing future picks. So the Twins can go over about $500K but it would cost them about $900K with tax.

But if I'm not mistaken, that is 5% of the total pool, not slot amount ?.  Thus allowing for more flexibility with individual picks. ?‍♂️

[nicksaviking]

12 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

I will have to look into further, but I believe that as long as the player doesn't sign a contract with the MLB team he is free to return to college (at least in baseball ?‍♂️).

Also, teams aren't generally going to draft a player, especially these days from what I've seen and read, without have the framework for an agreement in place.  So here's to hoping he's in Ft. Myers soon .

If he doesn't sign, I wouldn't be surprised if he decided to do the Indy Ball route instead of going back to college. For one, the Indy leagues will be happy to have the attention the player will bring with him and likely would be more amenable to a workload agreement as opposed to a big money SEC club who will want 75+ IP. For another, it seemed to work out well for Kumar Rocker.

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, MMMordabito said:

At the risk of sounding uninformed ....

Let's say Porter slips to the 4th round or later for that matter, since he's likely told teams that he's going to school.  Could the Twins draft him knowing that he won't sign and then just use that slot money on Lee/Prielipp?  Or, if they can't sign a player do they lose that slot money?

They would do something like they did with Gross in 2019,  take a college senior and only offer $10,000 bonus and save all the slot money.  I think the Twins are honestly even steven today,  and you won't see them trying to save money unless to go over slot on draft picks today.  

[MN_ExPat]

13 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If he doesn't sign, I wouldn't be surprised if he decided to do the Indy Ball route instead of going back to college. For one, the Indy leagues will be happy to have the attention the player will bring with him and likely would be more amenable to a workload agreement as opposed to a big money SEC club who will want 75+ IP. For another, it seemed to work out well for Kumar Rocker.

An interesting take, and one that I don't necessarily disagree with. 

Although... Come to think of it, I don't think anyone down here uses the term "club" when describing any baseball team ?.  I'm afraid we are going to have to dock you five (5) points for an incorrect usage of "Southern Terms" and the addition of Northern or Yankee words.

...and we were so close ?

[bunsen82]

Why are people thinking Preilipp wouldn't sign?   There is nothing to show this is a worry.  

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

I was thinking the same thing last night.  He couldn't go to a better team for taking care of his arm and his future all the way up to the MLB level.  I also think that might be why he agreed to slip as the Twins likely will have to go over slot there.  Hard to say though as there is so much mixed analysis.  If teams really feel he is a reliever in the end then he went right about where some elite relievers go so maybe no extra bonus needed.  Still he couldn't have landed on a better team so I have to believe he signs regardless.

I think good points here. The Twins were interested in him at 8 (or certainly ranked him higher than 48) so I think it's likely he will get more than slot AND I think it's likely he signs. You fall if you don't have a track record in college, he doesn't have a track record. So, absolutely it's a 'risky' pick in that sense. Twins will be extremely careful in bringing him along though. I feel pretty confident about it as a play with major upside.

[nicksaviking]

10 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Why are people thinking Preilipp wouldn't sign?   There is nothing to show this is a worry.  

Probably just because it seems too good to be true.

But I'm sure the Twins did their homework.

[Otaknam]

Like the draft so far. Some mock drafts had Lee second in the first round, and he looks like a stud. And I like taking the Alabama pitcher at 48. Seems like he has an upside as a front of the rotation starter, something the Twins haven’t had since Liriano. Let’s hope they hit on a few guys beyond the first few. 

[jimbo92107]

Like Kyle Gibson, once again the Twins bet on an injured college pitcher to become a bargain basement ace. Gibson panned out pretty well, and I suspect Connor Prielipp could be even better. 

A lot of us have bet on medical technology in our lives. I had my appendix removed by some Navy doctor with a sharp spoon. Lived through it to become a mediocre Coast Guardsman. Others among us have had surgeries to remove everything from tonsils to hamsters, to replace heart valves, brains with bits of sponge, etc. 

In contrast, professional athletes have access to some of the best surgeons in the world. I have heard brag that a repaired elbow tendon is actually stronger than the original because they use a larger piece of tendon as replacement. As with most eye surgeries these days, TJ surgeries are now very commonplace and well understood. 

Why did Prielipp fall to the Twins? Because a lot of teams still think of TJ surgery as the risky procedure from a few decades ago. That, and most teams don't have as much confidence in their coaches to tinker with a prospect's delivery to reduce further strain on that elbow, while actually adding a couple mph and better command. 

From the few pitches I saw, to me it looks like Prielipp could get more power from below the waist, that he's using too much upper body and forearm muscle to generate velocity. Twins coaches might be able to smooth that out for a healthier long-term future for this prospect. 

They have the technology. They can rebuild him!

[Major League Ready]

The slot amount for Prielipp is 1.62M.  Plus, they can go over by 5% or roughly $500K.  Plus, whatever they pay under slot for Schobel and I would guess that Ross comes in under as well.  That should get them to at least 2.5M to pay Prielipp.

[h2oface]

Happy for any pitcher in the first couple of rounds. Happy for a lefty. I hope they get him signed.

[Tiantwindup]

Usually college arms don't pitch much during draft year to protect their arms after pitching a full college season (of course same applies to high schoolers).  Will Prielipp be an exception since he hasn't pitched any 'live' innings this year?  Will he get, say, 30-40 innings of work in the Twins system?  If so, could get an early indication on how he looks (and would be fun to see)...

[blairpaul715]

I think the Twins will try to free up money to sign Prielipp for $3M. May or may not go over the 10 round slot amount penalty. I LOVE THE PICK of Prielipp.