Sorting Through MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Predictions

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota is expected to be active on the free-agent market, and MLB Trade Rumors predicts five of the top-50 free agents possibly ending up in Minnesota. Who are the players, and what will it take to sign them?

MLB Trade Rumors gathered their top three writers to make predictions about this year's free-agent class. At least one of the writers picked the names below to sign with the Twins.

Marcus Stroman
MLB TR Estimate: Five-Years, $110 million
Even at Twins Daily, most of the community is predicting the Twins to actively pursue Marcus Stroman this winter. Out of the top-tier starters, he will likely cost the least because he has the lowest ceiling, but he might have the highest floor. Twins fans may worry about Stroman's lack of strikeouts and his pitch-to-contact tendencies. Since Stroman accepted the qualifying offer last offseason, the Mets can't offer it again, which may make the Twins more likely to sign him. 

Eduardo Rodriguez
MLB TR Estimate: Five-Years, $70 million
Eduardo Rodriguez seemed like a good fit for the Twins, but word came out early on Monday that he had signed for five years and $77 million with the Detroit Tigers. It also sounds like the Twins were not in on Rodriguez. He's coming off a career-worst 4.74 ERA, but some of the peripheral numbers point to that being an outlier. Rodriguez looked like one of the best buy-low candidates on the market. Now Minnesota will have to face Rodriguez for the next half of a decade as the Tigers continue to improve. 

Alex Wood
MLB TR Estimate: Three-Years, $30 million
If the Twins miss out on Stroman and Rodriguez, there are a few other candidates the team can turn to for rotational depth. Wood pitched very effectively for the Giants last season, but he threw fewer than 50 innings from 2019-20. In recent years, he has missed time with back injuries and shoulder inflammation. Last season, Wood struck out 9.9 batters per nine innings, which might pair well with Stroman's lack of strikeouts at the top of the rotation.  

Corey Knebel
MLB TR Estimate: Two-Years, $18 million
When it comes to Knebel, the biggest question is: Would the Twins sign a reliever to a multi-year deal? After returning from injury last season, he posted some strong numbers, but he was also limited to less than 30 innings. Relief pitching is an area of need, but it doesn't seem likely for the Twins to allocate this much of their offseason spending on a late-inning reliever. 

Corey Kluber
MLB TR Estimate: One-Year, $12 million
Twins fans are familiar with Kluber after he dominated the AL Central for half a decade. He won multiple Cy Young awards, but this isn't the same version of Kluber. Last season, the Yankees signed him to a one-year deal to prove himself, but his season was full of ups and downs, including an early-season no-hitter. However, he was limited to 16 starts and spent time on the injured list. Kluber and Derek Falvey have ties to their time in Cleveland, so maybe a Minnesota reunion brings back some vintage Kluber. 

Which of these players do you feel is most likely to wind up in Minnesota? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[old nurse]

A Wood or Kluber signing to me would show that the FO thinks a minor leaguer is near ready but not quite, They would hopefully hold together long enough to get through the early part of the season. If they last longer, great. It is more of an expense than they made last year but hopefully they learned about too much of a bargain isn’t a bargain. 

Oft injured pitchers tend to continue to be oft injured. They are filler and hope rather than building blocks. Stroganoff (got to love auto correct) Stroman  would be a building block that they need.. Stroganoff on the other hand might be a good post game meal 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

So the Tigers have signed E. Rodriguez ! Here we go again.  One by one the top free agents  starting pitchers begin to slip through the Twins' fingers. As Yogi Berra said: " It's like de ja vu all over again".

[Blyleven2011]

I'm sorry  I wouldn't  pay any of your mentioned  pitchers that high of a salary  ,,

 

did kluber earn a raise  from 11 million with 16 starts ( 1 a no hitter ) and the rest back on injured list  ...

 

Can't pay woods or knebel for a reliever with injury concerns...

Stroman the twins FO could surprise us at 110 million and he would replace berrios but not with the strikeouts ....

 

Trades are the main focus  for pitching and a surplus of position players to trade ...

Gray I would like over stroman in the free agency 

 

[Brandon]

From the group in the article, I see Kluber as the top choice.  I see the Twins with 2 short term contracts a 1 year and a 2 year deal.  The third starter could be for any number of years.  The Twins have too much pitching close to the majors to not give several of them opportunities.  

Kluber on a 1 year deal. 12 million

Pineda on a 2 year deal 11 million per year 

Chris Bassit in a trade with Oakland 10.5 million 

total cost is 33.5 million so we have money for other needs.  

[Karbo]

I could go with Stroman on a 4-5 year deal, re-sign Pineda for 2 years, package a trade for a good young starter and hope that our youngsters can carry the rest of the burden.

[Trov]

Only way I would want Kluber is if he is as a bonus type signing and not as you expect anything from him.  He would be the type of signing that if he bounces back everyone would say great signing, but I do not expect much from him.  If you are counting on a old Kluber with 180 innings to carry a staff we will be in trouble.  However, if you feel the rotation is figured out and you want to bring him in hopes he can do something cool.  

[mikelink45]

Kluber would be a big disappointment for me.  Stroman looks good, the others are not equal to the value of their projected contracts.  I do not like paying for past performance and only Stroman looks like he has forward potential.  

The big news was Berrios - 7 year contract with Toronto.  Way to go Blue Jays and Berrios!  He would have replaced any of the pitchers on this list. 

[jmlease1]

I would be happy if we got Stroman at around this number. He'd be a very good fit at the top of the rotation, and while he may not be the flamethrower some people want, it's not like he doesn't get Ks. His FIP is consistently good and if we put a solid D behind him he's going to do very well. When stroman keeps the ball in the park (which he generally does) and doesn't issue too many free passes, he's terrific and I want him.

[Brandon]

So far my top 50 predictions are way off.  I had Noah Syndergaard excepting the QO and Rodriguez in SF.  

[Wizard11]

I like the idea of Kluber and Wood although this market suggests that those numbers may be low.

[Rosterman]

I was excited abouit the potential of trdaing unneeded prospects for short-term pitching (long-term if can sign them). But the more I think about it, the Twins should just play their typical free-agent marketplace and go after most of the names above, maybe doing one BIG contract to a guy who can give them games and innings.

 

I would almost like to see the Twins trade-off assets like Donaldson, Arraez, Sano, Kepler and Garver than tade off prospects at this point. If guys are desired by other teams that are in our minors system, they should also be desired by the Twins.

 

The chances of the Twins being highly competitive in 2022, let alone 2023, is the same dream of 25 other teams in baseball, and 20+ of them don't measure up in the end. It is getting to the point where a major splash is needed to put you over the top, which often can happen mid-season.

I hope the front office knows what it is doing. Although excited when they threw money at Josh Donaldson, partly to prove they can, I almsot wish it hadn't happened and that the Twins would do what Target Field was made to do - keep their own players under contract into their free agent years.

 

You can always throw money at players. You can't always develop the right ones, and the clock is always ticking on how long you have them in development - and those are the ones that you need to think hard about moving rather than let walk.

 

[Whitey333]

I doubt the Twins sign any of them because it would require spending money to be competitive.  And that is something they generally do not do.  I also think it's weird how people say we can't sign so and so because of his past injuries.  Yet those same people ignore Buxton long history of injuries and say Twins should sign him to a superstar contract. I'm afraid that we will basically be watching a AAA team at Target Field AND in St. Paul.

[Minny505]

I would love some Alex Wood on this team. He is a career "awesome or hurt" pitcher. 

We just saw Atlanta win a WS with a team riddled with high risk, high reward players. You have enough of them on your team and play those that are giving you that current high reward.

Teams with high floor, low ceiling players, usually can't get over the hump. Recent Cardinals and Mets teams are a good example of this. Phillies too. 

[Brandon]

On 11/16/2021 at 6:45 AM, Trov said:

Only way I would want Kluber is if he is as a bonus type signing and not as you expect anything from him.  He would be the type of signing that if he bounces back everyone would say great signing, but I do not expect much from him.  If you are counting on a old Kluber with 180 innings to carry a staff we will be in trouble.  However, if you feel the rotation is figured out and you want to bring him in hopes he can do something cool.  

 

On 11/16/2021 at 7:09 AM, mikelink45 said:

Kluber would be a big disappointment for me.  Stroman looks good, the others are not equal to the value of their projected contracts.  I do not like paying for past performance and only Stroman looks like he has forward potential.  

The big news was Berrios - 7 year contract with Toronto.  Way to go Blue Jays and Berrios!  He would have replaced any of the pitchers on this list. 

Kluber would be the third starter type brought in.  In my scenario above.  Pineda and Bassitt were the two big names and Kluber is the third.  remember we have lots of starting pitching prospects who should be ready for a turn starting in 2022 season so if someone gets hurt or is underperforming we will have options.  having a 1 year commitment helps too cause we will likely want that rotation spot next year for the young guys coming up.  (Duran, Winder, Balazovich, Richardson-Woods, and Cole with Canterino not far behind them.  

[beckmt]

Verlander went for $25 million for 2022 with an option for the same in 2023.  Prices are rising, twins please take note.