Building a Pitching Pipeline

[Seth Stohs]

19 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Concur on needing patience. I think it's also important to recognize what is and isn't meant by a "pitching pipeline." Six Cleveland pitchers were named in the article -- Kluber, Bauer, Clevinger, Bieber, Civale and Plesac -- but it's worth noting that they debuted in six different seasons over a nine-year period. Six guys that good in nine years is impressive, but it's not like they averaging one or two new studs per year, which is how people seem to perceive it. 

Similarly, I'd note that during that string, though Cleveland was always competitive, they only won their division three times during that run, 2016, 2017, and 2018. Of those six guys, only Clevinger and Bieber debuted during the pennant-winning seasons, with Clevinger making 10 starts in 2016 and Bieber 19 starts in 2018. In other words, they weren't debuting new guys while they were winning pennants. 

 

Absolutely true... And also they have had some guys that didn't make it. Or haven't made it yet. They have had guys who didn't make it and succeed. Maybe they didn't have the talent, but even then, the team probably deserves credit for getting a guy there when he probably never should have. 

When the Twins were winning pennants in the past decade, they would bring up one or two guys each year. Liriano one year. Garza the next. Valencia. You want to get to the point where you aren't bringing up six guys a year. 

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

PItcher wins is not a useless stat, it's just a stat that doesn't tell the whole story.  Baseball is full of stats that don't tell the whole story.

It says a starting pitcher made it through 5 innings or a relief pitcher finished 1. That is all it tells. That makes it basically useless.

Twins dropped a 9 spot in the 4th inning Friday (I think it was Friday at least). Dobnak could have given up a 6 spot in the 5th, but got through it and still gotten a W that day. He could have given up his own 9 spot in the 5th and still gotten a W (Twins had scored 1 in the 3rd so were at 10). Pitcher W tells you absolutely nothing about how they pitched that day beyond a starter getting through 5 or a reliever finishing 1 inning.

[Seth Stohs]

19 hours ago, Danchat said:

It's nice to know that there are starter prospects working their way up the minors, but I think part of the reason why we haven't had any recent arms come up is the lack of focusing on drafting pitchers highly. In all of the Falvine drafts (2017-2020), the only two pitchers were taken in the 1st or 2nd round: Landon Leach (who is no longer in the organization), and Matt Canterino. They've prioritized hitters in every single draft. They seem more confident in bringing in veteran starters on one year deals and fixing broken DFA'd relievers through these first few years managing the Twins. 

I, for one, hope that we can be done with bringing in starters on one year deals like Martin Perez, Lance Lynn, Homer Bailey, JA Happ, and Matt Shoemaker and instead rely on our internally developed guys, or maybe go out and trade for a high-end starter? If Falvine wants this team to become more like the Rays (that's why they hired Rocco, I assume?), then start acting like it!

That has been the strategy. They probably started winning during the Falvey years early, so they had to bring in free agents because they hadn't had time to build the pipeline. That takes 5 years, at least, when the cupboard was nearly empty. Like I wrote, Dobnak is the lone real success story to this point. Another point from the article is that Bieber, Civale, Kluber, Plesac weren't drafted in the first 2 rounds... Sure, they had Bauer, but they were opportunistic in getting him for very little just because Kirk Gibson was tired of Bauer already. 

[Seth Stohs]

15 hours ago, h2oface said:

 Throw out over 100 years of history for the last 20 and the trendy cocktail stats, eh? All those great HOF pitchers. Credibility takes a hit here in my opinion. 

Not believing in the value of pitcher wins isn't taking away anything from anyone in the past. It's actually making their case stronger. Bert Blyleven finally got in the Hall of Fame because people realized he was so much better than his Win total said. How many 1-0, 2-1, 2-0 losses did he have? Also, pitcher wins probably did mean more for starters in the past because they did pitch until the game was pretty much decided. The best ones went 7-8-9 innings. There are still a few guys that do that, but it's less and less. 

Team wins are most important. Who gets that W isn't as important. 

[Seth Stohs]

15 hours ago, beckmt said:

I pitcher I would like to see here this year is Cano.  See if his stuff plays up here.

That makes sense at some point, for sure. He's already 27 because he came here from Cuba, but at the same time, it's also important not to over (or under) value what a guy does in three weeks. I would think if he stays healthy, he could get an opportunity. 

[Dodecahedron]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It says a starting pitcher made it through 5 innings or a relief pitcher finished 1. That is all it tells. That makes it basically useless.

Even if this were all it signifies, this is an important part of the story.

[Mike Sixel]

26 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

2021: Duran, Ober, Balazovic

2022: Jax, Barnes, Winder, Canterino, Sands

2023: Enlow, Funderburk, Grace

While they will always need pitchers, obviously at some point, it just becomes about opportunity... Obviously it's imppssible to know what will happen... but the process is there. 

Jax will be 27 by then.....how long does anyone think he'll be good?

I'll believe they might have a successful pipeline when they have even 1 guy be a good SP for at least a year. As I've said, they deserve until the end of this year to be judged as a FO.....so we'll start seeing this year, I guess, how I feel.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

That makes sense at some point, for sure. He's already 27 because he came here from Cuba, but at the same time, it's also important not to over (or under) value what a guy does in three weeks. I would think if he stays healthy, he could get an opportunity. 

Jax is 26.......shouldn't he be up soon too?

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Even if this were all it signifies, this is an important part of the story.

This is all it signifies. There's no if about it. A starter made it 5 innings with the lead or a reliever finished an inning with a lead. That doesn't tell you anything meaningful about that pitcher's performance that day. It is not important. 

Yusmeiro Petit is tied for 3rd in the league in wins right now with 6. He's a reliever. Eovaldi (4.39 ERA), John King (Reliever), Andrew Kittredge (Reliever), Steven Matz (4.69 ERA), Frankie Montas (4.79 ERA), Eduardo Rodriguez (5.06 ERA) are amongst those pitchers tied for 8th with 5 Ws. Connor Brogdon (Reliever with 5.00 ERA), Arrieta (4.46 ERA), MadBum (4.53 ERA) are next in line with 4 Ws. Brandon Woodruff (1.58 ERA), Taijuan Walker (2.05 ERA), deGrom (0.68 ERA), Kyle Gibson (2.24 ERA), Pablo Lopez (2.73 ERA) all come in below the guys listed above in terms of Ws. Tell me which guys you'd want in your rotation right now. Eovaldi, Matz, Montas, Rodriguez, Arrieta, and MadBum or Woodruff, Walker, deGrom, Gibson, and Lopez? 

Ws don't tell you anything useful.

[Seth Stohs]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Jax is 26.......shouldn't he be up soon too?

Sure... in place of who? 

Maeda and Pineda are on the IL now, but they're not getting bumped. Berrios isn't getting bumped. Happ is a guy that could get traded, but he needs to build some value up over the next month. Then a spot opens. Shoemaker might bring back value if he has a good month, so might as well try that. If not, can drop him at that point. 

Dobnak is probably first in line. Thorpe is still in the starter conversation. Ober got the first opportunity since he is on the 40-man roster, and he'll get more chances, probably. 

So in addition to making more than a handful of AAA starts, it also is about opportunity. Also, we are talking about back-of-the-rotation upside, so do we care if he debuts at 26, 27, 28?

[Dodecahedron]

This is a good teaching moment.  There is no single uberstat in baseball.  Every metric is useless on its own.  Complicating matter is, as you are learning, no one has the same opinion on each metric.  You are not arguing anything unexpected, it's normal for people to argue wins for pitchers and RBIs for hitters are useless information because others in the press have argued as such.

The truth remains that wins are still a part of telling the story about a pitcher, or learning about a pitcher.  A pitcher with wins or losses outside of the norm means something.  What that "something" is needs more analysis on a case-by-case basis. 

[Mike Sixel]

34 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

Sure... in place of who? 

Maeda and Pineda are on the IL now, but they're not getting bumped. Berrios isn't getting bumped. Happ is a guy that could get traded, but he needs to build some value up over the next month. Then a spot opens. Shoemaker might bring back value if he has a good month, so might as well try that. If not, can drop him at that point. 

Dobnak is probably first in line. Thorpe is still in the starter conversation. Ober got the first opportunity since he is on the 40-man roster, and he'll get more chances, probably. 

So in addition to making more than a handful of AAA starts, it also is about opportunity. Also, we are talking about back-of-the-rotation upside, so do we care if he debuts at 26, 27, 28?

Sounds like a bullpen arm to me.... Given the other starters and his age.....

[chpettit19]

42 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

This is a good teaching moment.  There is no single uberstat in baseball.  Every metric is useless on its own.  Complicating matter is, as you are learning, no one has the same opinion on each metric.  You are not arguing anything unexpected, it's normal for people to argue wins for pitchers and RBIs for hitters are useless information because others in the press have argued as such.

The truth remains that wins are still a part of telling the story about a pitcher, or learning about a pitcher.  A pitcher with wins or losses outside of the norm means something.  What that "something" is needs more analysis on a case-by-case basis. 

If this is in reference to me this is not a teaching moment. I'm not claiming there's a "single uberstat in baseball." I have given many examples and explained multiple times in this thread why pitcher wins don't tell any useful information. If you can provide an example of what a "pitcher with wins or losses outside of the norm " might mean you could then possibly have a teaching moment. Up to this point you've done nothing but say Ws may not tell much, but they're important. Haven't explained why they're important, just that you think they are. I have explained, with multiple examples, why they don't tell anything useful.

The "truth" does not remain that they're telling any story about a pitcher beyond they happened to finish 5 innings where their team scored more runs than the opponent (and their team didn't subsequently give up the lead in later innings), or finished 1 inning where their team happened to take the lead. Petit having 6 wins tells you nothing about his ability to prevent runs. He could have given up a lead only to have his team take it back in the bottom of an inning and earned a W. Ws don't tell you a single thing about how a pitcher performed beyond a starter finishing 5 innings or a reliever finishing 1. That is the truth of the pitcher W stat.

And "others in the press" having argued against pitcher Ws has nothing to do with my stance. Not sure what that has to do with anything at all, actually.

[roger]

48 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Jax is 26.......shouldn't he be up soon too?

Don't understand what you are getting at with this and your previous point, Mike?

Will agree that many of the best pitchers were top prospects who broke into the big leagues before they were 26, many of the best well before.  But there are always some prospects with circumstances that put them as an exceptions.  Jax certainly qualifies considering his being an AFA grad who missed nearly all of his first two years following graduation while on active duty.  Toss in the missed year last year and he has what, less than two years of professional experience.  

I don't have a clue whether or not he has what it takes to become more than a AAAA type pitcher for the Twins.  To be honest, I am surprised that they pushed him up to AAA to start this season considering how little experience he has.  But it certainly shouldn't be considered a negative that he hasn't arrived with that limited professional experience.  And the good point, assuming the CBA doesn't change it, is that the Twins will control his services through most of his best years.

[Mike Sixel]

The previous post said they should consider calling up the Cuban because he was 27.... Seems that logic applies to a 26 year old whose upside is back end starter.... No place did I imply it was a negative he had not debuted yet.... As teams have learned, most pitchers don't throw harder in their late twenties, most being the key word....

 

If his upside is back end starter, and he's 26, maybe he should be a relief pitcher, so he can go more all out. 

[Dodecahedron]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If this is in reference to me this is not a teaching moment. I'm not claiming there's a "single uberstat in baseball." I have given many examples and explained multiple times in this thread why pitcher wins don't tell any useful information. If you can provide an example of what a "pitcher with wins or losses outside of the norm " might mean you could then possibly have a teaching moment. Up to this point you've done nothing but say Ws may not tell much, but they're important. Haven't explained why they're important, just that you think they are. I have explained, with multiple examples, why they don't tell anything useful.

The "truth" does not remain that they're telling any story about a pitcher beyond they happened to finish 5 innings where their team scored more runs than the opponent (and their team didn't subsequently give up the lead in later innings), or finished 1 inning where their team happened to take the lead. Petit having 6 wins tells you nothing about his ability to prevent runs. He could have given up a lead only to have his team take it back in the bottom of an inning and earned a W. Ws don't tell you a single thing about how a pitcher performed beyond a starter finishing 5 innings or a reliever finishing 1. That is the truth of the pitcher W stat.

Two issues:

1)  I don't recall saying "wins are important."  If I did say that, I misspoke.  The point I have been making is that wins are not "useless information" -- wins mean something, even if that "something" is just a small part of the story.  Just pulling out a number, but if a stat tells 5%-10% of the story about a player, that's meaningful.  That's not "useless information."

2) As you say, you outlined premises to prove your case.  To me, those same premises prove that wins are good information to have to understand a pitcher.  There's no need to repeat yourself, I understand what you are saying.  I disagree.  Like most of the people on this website, I have thought about this issue for years and I came to my own conclusion.

Redact data on your player stat sheets at your own peril.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Two issues:

1)  I don't recall saying "wins are important."  If I did say that, I misspoke.  The point I have been making is that wins are not "useless information" -- wins mean something, even if that "something" is just a small part of the story.  Just pulling out a number, but if a stat tells 5%-10% of the story about a player, that's meaningful.  That's not "useless information."

2) As you say, you outlined premises to prove your case.  To me, those same premises prove that wins are good information to have to understand a pitcher.  There's no need to repeat yourself, I understand what you are saying.  I disagree.  Like most of the people on this website, I have thought about this issue for years and I came to my own conclusion.

Redact data on your player stat sheets at your own peril.

What percent of the story would you say pitcher Ws does tell? Do you think a pitcher's W-L record tells 5-10% of their story? I'm seriously asking as I'd like to understand where you're coming from better.

What do the things I outlined tell you about any of the pitchers I mentioned? Or lets just use deGrom as he's the poster boy for pitcher W-L stats not telling you anything meaningful. What do you learn about deGrom himself (we're just talking about pitcher Ws meaning something for that pitcher, not his team) from seeing his W-L record in isolation? Cuz that's really what this comes down to. If you look at just that 1 stat what percent of the story can it tell you about that player, their talents, or their performance. I would like to understand your thoughts on what you can learn from seeing a pitcher's W-L record in isolation. As you've said, and I agree, there's no uberstat that tells you the whole story. But I'd argue that there are stats that tell you basically nothing (pitching Ws), or very little (hitter RBIs need much more context).

[Trov]

I really think during this year and next year is when we should start seeing some pipeline payouts.  The new FO was never going to just snap their fingers and players were going to start being top pitchers in the game.  I am hoping the returns will start coming in though.  

When you look back at old FO we had what 2 quality MLB level pitchers for long lengths, and may high draft busts.  The recent signings for the pen have not gone too well this year, but pen signings are always a crap shoot. 

[Dodecahedron]

I can't quantify how important wins are.  I can't quantify how important any stat is.  Honestly, it varies by player.  Not every player is on the same team, plays in the same situations, or even has the same skills.

Data Analysis 101:  Look for outliers and use them as signposts for further analysis.  If a pitcher started 33 games and won 20 of them, that sticks out and you should be using that knowledge to look deeper.  If a pitcher started 33 games and won 5 of them, that's another signpost.  If a pitcher won 10-12 games, that's normal and you can toss the wins stat out the window for that guy, the stat won't help you. 

This is true for any metric.  When analyzing data, the more metrics you have the better.  Nothing is noise.  Start with the outlier stats and work your way in, not vice-versa.

[Dman]

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sounds like a bullpen arm to me.... Given the other starters and his age.....

I like him in the pen as well.  He throws strikes and has good command.  Hopefully his velocity would tick up and he still needs an out pitch or he will be a pitch to contact guy.  Still I think he fits best in the pen especially with power arms that are coming up.

[Mike Sixel]

I asked a Fangraphs writer (and former front office member) a question....

mike sixel

1:23

At what point should the Twins start calling up minor league pitchers to get them experience for next year? Or, is that over rated?

 

Kevin Goldstein

1:24

That is NOT overrated, but I don't think they should start thinking about that kind of thing until after the AS break.

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, wabene said:

Saying that wins are a useless start doesn't necessarily diminish the achievements of past greats. I'm sure Seth has some stats he approves of that illustrate that greatness.

Wins were a useful stat when pitchers attempted to complete the games they started.  I give my favorite pitcher - Warren Spahn as an example.  He was in 675 games and completed 382 to win 363.   His complete games to games played diminishes his last two years when he was 43 - 44.  Winning 20 games a year for 13 years was a great feat.  Today the starting pitchers only go half a game so maybe they should be give half a win instead of a full one.    To compare - our number one pitcher Jose Berrios has started 124 games and completed 3.  So of course the records do not match and if wins are a question it is one that must lean on complete games.  I agree that RP wins is silly, although the year that Elroy Face won 18 - 1 for Pittsburgh was an amazing feat.  So give me innings, complete games, and make wins matter.  By the way Steve Carlton was done when he took our mound, but when it comes to wins his season he won 27 games for a team that won only 59.  And he had 30 complete games! "He made 41 starts, threw 30 complete games, and logged 346 innings, more than anyone since. He also struck out 310 batters, becoming only the second left hander in National League history to record 300 strikeouts (Sandy Koufax was first) and posted an ERA of 1.97." https://www.realclearhistory.com/articles/2020/07/27/remembering_carltons_stellar_72_cy_young_season_500287.html#!#:~:text=On July 23%2C 1972%2C the Phillies were playing,the worst record in baseball%3A an abysmal 30-57.

Sorry Seth, but Wins do have value.  I am not enjoying many of the new baseball as much as I did the old days of small ball, tough pitchers, fielding, stealing, and Home Runs that actually meant something. 

[h2oface]

22 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

For the record, I too believe that pitcher Wins are a useless stat. 

 

5 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Not believing in the value of pitcher wins isn't taking away anything from anyone in the past........

.....Team wins are most important. Who gets that W isn't as important. 

Isn't as important, and useless don't mean the same thing to me. Words mean something. If that is not what you meant, then so be it.

One might say that team wins is the only important stat. But that is not inferring that all others are useless.

Wins has always been part of a starting pitcher's  story, and not the whole story. Even moreso now that pitchers don't pitch much past the 5th. Nor do they start every 4th game. One thing consistent is you can't get a loss if you don't allow runs to score. Might not get the win, and you could get "deGrom'ed", but you can't get a loss. Wins are not useless. They never will be useless, no matter how many new stats we can come up with. They are all part of the story, and none are useless. There used to be 3 television channels. They aren't useless now, they are just less of the whole story by sheer content. 

[MMMordabito]

Blayne Enlow - A+
Charlie Barnes - AAA
Bryan Sammons - AA
Calvin Faucher - AA
Bailey Ober - AAA
Derek Molina - A+

Those are the pitchers left from the 2017 draft (Falvine's first).  Running out of time and horses for that Bieber/Civale/Plesac emergence from that group.  Twins have four innings from Ober so far.

Meanwhile, Cleveland has just a many pitchers left from that year. Karinchak has already arrived despite the Garlick homer.  Kyle Nelson just got called up as well. 

[4twinsJA]

With new CBA would like to see it easier for clubs to give young players some MLB experience. Now have to be on 40 man roster, if moved up teams have to drop someone off 40 man. 

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

I can't quantify how important wins are.  I can't quantify how important any stat is.  Honestly, it varies by player.  Not every player is on the same team, plays in the same situations, or even has the same skills.

Data Analysis 101:  Look for outliers and use them as signposts for further analysis.  If a pitcher started 33 games and won 20 of them, that sticks out and you should be using that knowledge to look deeper.  If a pitcher started 33 games and won 5 of them, that's another signpost.  If a pitcher won 10-12 games, that's normal and you can toss the wins stat out the window for that guy, the stat won't help you. 

This is true for any metric.  When analyzing data, the more metrics you have the better.  Nothing is noise.  Start with the outlier stats and work your way in, not vice-versa.

What do those outliers tell you about that pitcher, though? The point of pitcher wins is to tell you something about that specific player. You suggest winning 20 games says something about them (I assume something positive). What does it say, though? If you're a GM are you sprinting to trade for or sign them because they won 20 games? Or if they won 5 what does that say about them? 

When analyzing data, the more USEFUL metrics you have the better. Some things are absolutely noise. The point of individual stats is to tell you useful information about that individual. When that metric measures far more about your team than it does about you it is noise and not helpful.

[beckmt]

6 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

That makes sense at some point, for sure. He's already 27 because he came here from Cuba, but at the same time, it's also important not to over (or under) value what a guy does in three weeks. I would think if he stays healthy, he could get an opportunity. 

Unless things turn around quickly the rest of this year should be used to see what pitchers we can count on for next year and which pitchers need more time (or may not make it at all).

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, h2oface said:

 

Isn't as important, and useless don't mean the same thing to me. Words mean something. If that is not what you meant, then so be it.

One might say that team wins is the only important stat. But that is not inferring that all others are useless.

Wins has always been part of a starting pitcher's  story, and not the whole story. Even moreso now that pitchers don't pitch much past the 5th. Nor do they start every 4th game. One thing consistent is you can't get a loss if you don't allow runs to score. Might not get the win, and you could get "deGrom'ed", but you can't get a loss. Wins are not useless. They never will be useless, no matter how many new stats we can come up with. They are all part of the story, and none are useless. There used to be 3 television channels. They aren't useless now, they are just less of the whole story by sheer content. 

Pitcher A- 9 GS, 2-2 W-L, 1.58 ERA, 0.74 WHIP

Pitcher B- 9 GS, 5-2 W-L, 4.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Pitcher C- 9 GS, 3-5 W-L, 4.53 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Pitcher D- 9 GS, 4-2 W-L, 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

Pitcher E- 6 GS, 3-2 W-L, 0.68 ERA, 0.60 WHIP

Pitcher F- 10 GS, 5-2 W-L, 4.39 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Pitcher G- 9 GS, 5-3 W-L, 4.79 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Pitcher H- 9 GS, 4-4 W-L, 2.47 ERA, 0.86 WHIP

Rate these pitchers in order of who you'd want and tell me how much weight you put into their W-L record. You're the GM of the Twins trying to win a WS and these are the guys you have available to sign. Tell me how useful their W-L records are when deciding who to sign.

[beckmt]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Pitcher A- 9 GS, 2-2 W-L, 1.58 ERA, 0.74 WHIP

Pitcher B- 9 GS, 5-2 W-L, 4.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Pitcher C- 9 GS, 3-5 W-L, 4.53 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Pitcher D- 9 GS, 4-2 W-L, 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

Pitcher E- 6 GS, 3-2 W-L, 0.68 ERA, 0.60 WHIP

Pitcher F- 10 GS, 5-2 W-L, 4.39 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Pitcher G- 9 GS, 5-3 W-L, 4.79 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Pitcher H- 9 GS, 4-4 W-L, 2.47 ERA, 0.86 WHIP

Rate these pitchers in order of who you'd want and tell me how much weight you put into their W-L record. You're the GM of the Twins trying to win a WS and these are the guys you have available to sign. Tell me how useful their W-L records are when deciding who to sign.

As you know, this is impossible.  What else is needed, for the lower ERA, Whip was it a mirage of ball just hit at people and unsustainable, how many strikeouts did each have,  how many of his runners left on scored (bullpen issues), hard hit or exit velocity average.  The win-loss means nothing.  Also some of it is the strength of the club they are playing for.

[Major League Ready]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Pitcher A- 9 GS, 2-2 W-L, 1.58 ERA, 0.74 WHIP

Pitcher B- 9 GS, 5-2 W-L, 4.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Pitcher C- 9 GS, 3-5 W-L, 4.53 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Pitcher D- 9 GS, 4-2 W-L, 2.53 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

Pitcher E- 6 GS, 3-2 W-L, 0.68 ERA, 0.60 WHIP

Pitcher F- 10 GS, 5-2 W-L, 4.39 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Pitcher G- 9 GS, 5-3 W-L, 4.79 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Pitcher H- 9 GS, 4-4 W-L, 2.47 ERA, 0.86 WHIP

Rate these pitchers in order of who you'd want and tell me how much weight you put into their W-L record. You're the GM of the Twins trying to win a WS and these are the guys you have available to sign. Tell me how useful their W-L records are when deciding who to sign.

I would put virtually no weight given this small sample size.  However, I would be interested in what percentage of games started were won by the players team over the previous 2-3 years.  Tells me something about consistency and if a player is able to compete when they don't have their best stuff.  Of course, I would still want all the other stats.