Which Twins Will the Deadened Ball Hurt the Most?

[Cody Pirkl]

This week, MLB came right out and said that they’re attempting to deaden the baseball in 2021. It’s fair to expect that the Twins could feel the effects of this change, but which hitters could be punished the most?We all know that in 2019 several home run records were shattered across baseball. It turns out that MLB had made several changes to the ball that reduced it’s “drag”. Long story short, the makeup of the ball offered less resistance when traveling through the air, thus adding distance onto batted balls.

 

We don’t know what tactics MLB will use to reverse the offensive surge in recent years, but reducing the drag on the ball may be easiest which can presumably be accomplished by altering the surface of the ball to make it less smooth for example. The result is that players who often sneak homers into the bleachers may not get that extra push to get their batted balls over the wall. Making this assumption, let’s see who may be at the top of the list for Twins players that could be affected most.

 

Jorge Polanco

Polanco had an average home run distance of 393 feet in 2019 and hit 23 home runs. Statcast uses a measurement called “no doubters” that tracks home runs that would have made it out of every MLB stadium. No doubters are a good way to get a feel for whether a player’s raw ability to drive baseballs out of the park is legit. For context, 47.6% of Nelson Cruz’s home runs were no doubters, while 39.1% of Polanco’s would have left any MLB ballpark. To be fair, Polanco has never been highly touted for his homerun power, and we likely saw a career high in 2019 from the Twins newly converted second baseman. A few feet off of some of his fly balls may hurt him in 2021, but assuming he’s healthy he should still be able to pick up some extra base hits.

 

Mitch Garver

Garver suffered a brutal 2020 but it had more to do with swing and miss than anything wrong with the ball. Still, assuming Garv Sauce is back to his normal fastball punishing self in 2021, it may surprise you that while his average home run distance of 400 feet was better than Polanco’s in 2019, his no doubter rate of 38.7% was worse. Looking back, it’s easy to remember plenty of Garver’s homers in 2019 just barely making it out, and it’s evidenced by his 25.1 expected home runs in that stellar season as compared to the 31 he actually hit. While the return of 2019 Garv Sauce is likely out of the question, his elite plate skills and exit velocity should still make him a formidable hitter, even if the 30 home run threshold will be difficult to reach again.

 

 

Max Kepler

Kepler is perhaps the most worrisome when it comes to deadening the baseball. In 2019 Kepler’s average of 392 feet per home run was less than Polanco’s as was his no doubter percentage of 38.9%. The one thing Kepler has going for him is that basically all of his home runs are pulled and therefore don’t have as far to travel to reach the seats. Take a look at his 2020 spray chart.

Download attachment: Kepler Spray Chart.PNG

 

Kepler’s pull tendencies may help him avoid completely cratering in his home run production, but taking a few feet off of some of his fly balls would certainly cost him as evidenced by his low average home run distance. Furthermore, Kepler is a low batting average, moderate on base hitter who hasn’t hit left handed pitching for most of his career. Kepler may stand to lose the most if the new ball doesn’t allow him to provide 30 home run power, as aside from defense, the gap between him and an MLB ready Trevor Larnach could quickly close.

 

Bonus: Eddie Rosario

Eddie is no longer a Twin but with an average HR distance of 392 feet in 2019 with only one third of his 33 being no doubters, Eddie in particular could feel the pain of the new baseball. With the ball possibly inhibiting the fly balls Eddie creates out of pitches nobody should be swinging at, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a drop off to a 20-25 HR hitter rather than a 30+ bat. He’s not exactly a star on the exit velocity leaderboards and a lot of his batted balls over the fence aren’t well struck.

 

It turned out to be a great year to build around defense and avoid the “Bomba Squad” label, as the Twins should have a well rounded team that doesn’t rely on fly balls leaving the park to be successful. That being said, a few players lacking prominent raw power may not put up the stats we’ve come to expect. Do you think any other Twins may be feeling the pain of the new ball? Let us know below!

 

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

— Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here

 

Click here to view the article

[Fatbat]

I'd rather see 200 more doubles to extend rally's than more homers.

[mnfireman]

The Twins big HR guys hit most of theirs to the pull field...dead ball will probably affect more doubles than homers....

[mikelink45]

So ballplayers need to get hits!  What a concept.  But rather than looking at the HRs - look at the BA - Rosario 277 - Kepler 237.  I suspect that Eddie will adapt better than Max. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I think it will hurt the slowest runners the most. Some of their their doubles will turn into singles, Can you say Cruz? However it will help some fly ball pitchers, like Odo. Oh wait, as my least favorite announcer ever used to say: "He gone."

[prouster]

I’d say it may hurt Cruz the most by default. He was signed basically to hit home runs. If that ability diminishes, then it will be hard to see what (on field) value he would even bring. I guess he could become a prolific doubles hitter.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Interesting article! I wonder what a deadened ball will do to fielding? Former hot grounders now slow rollers not getting out of the infield? Outfielders taking away more line drive hits? Bloopers not blooping deep enough? Formerly average fielders now looking like gold glove candidates? Cruz suddenly getting time in the outfield?

 

 

 

 

[twinfan]

We can guess all we want but, until we see the ball in games, we won't know. Sure Garver can't be expected to hit 30 homers and Polanco isn't more than a 15 homer guy in a normal season. You really can't compare anything to 2019 which was an anomaly for the team.

 

Looks like Paxton is back with Seattle, the Yanks signed Jay Bruce- smart move, Arrieta to the Cubs (who knows if he can bounce back) and Matt Harvey gets another shot (why not). I think Hill has also been signed. Nothing on Odo or Homer Bailey. More to come this week.

[Nine of twelve]

I concur with those who point out that it's not just home runs that will be affected.

There should be a slight decrease in the rate of ground balls getting through the infield, which means more ground ball outs. This would be most significant for grounders near the base lines, especially the first base line, in that what previously would have been doubles could be turned into outs.

I expect that outfielders will be positioned a few feet shallower this season. If this is the case I would think that the rate of singles that fall in front of outfielders wouldn't change much. There may be an increase in the rate of doubles hit over a fielder's head but a decrease in the rate of doubles on other balls hit to the outfield. This positioning change would also make it a bit easier for baserunners to be thrown out, so coaches and baserunners will need to adapt.

[Shaitan]

It depends if those fly balls turn into outs vs doubles to truly see the impact.

 

The Kepler data is interesting. Polanco seems obvious.

[ashbury]

Looks like Paxton is back with Seattle

We can guess all we want but, until we see him in ball games, we won't know.

 

 

[Teflon]

Will making better contact and trying to exploit the areas defensive shifts leave untended become a thing?

[joefish]

The players who adjusted their swings to elevate their fly balls will be hurt the most. Kepler's swing changed. I hope that sweet swing he came with returns.

[Fatbat]

I wonder if subconsciously, batters will adjust their swings? And will they adjust to flatten for line drives or the opposite?

[Trov]

I think this will help our pitchers more than hurt our hitters.  The 2019 "Bomba Squad" was not the plan going in.  It was the result of the team and we expected similar results 2020, which did not happen.  Now, if all the teams come back to some normal HR rates, that will help our pitchers with what should be a decent defense, depending on health.  

 

I do not expect a whole lot to change with the teams offensive thoughts.  Mainly I expect they will still look at attack fastballs in the zone and try to hit ball hard.  For most part, if you hit the ball hard good things happen more often.  Looking forward tot he season.

[Dodecahedron]

I think there's no question there were too many home runs in 2018 and 2019.  

 

To see who will be most affected, look at BABIP. Of the people listed, Kepler will be affected the most. Garver and Polanco should be fine, or at least their performance should not dip more than league average.