Jake Odorizzi, What's going on w/ him?

[Major League Ready]

 

Well, yes, they should operate the team at break-even. That's what I would do. Wouldn't you?

 

You are already a billionaire, you can already live whatever lifestyle you want. You have other ventures making money. Beyond keeping a reserve of funds for the team (which yes should probably be enough to operate the team for at least a full year -- heck, 5 years), why not operate the team as a break-even venture? This would zero out your taxes and be a heck of a lot more fun. In the United States, wages are 100% tax deductible.

 

Isn't sports about having fun? If running a team is a headache, sell the team! If counting beans is what drives you in life, stay in real estate.

 

OK let’s go with sports should be fun and owners should be willing to invest with no financial benefit. Why does that not apply to players? Shouldn’t they be willing to work for free or perhaps what an average guy makes or 2X the average guy? By your logic why should a player get pad 100M or 200M or even 300M? They should play for fun right?

 

Let’s pretend for just a moment it makes sense that owners were willing to operate at break-even. Who here can tell me how that would benefit fans? Obviously, they cut prices but they could do that and still remain profitable by paying players less. The next nearest professional baseball league pays 1/8 of MLB so the players would still be here at ½ the pay. The question is specific to profitability. With all the belly aching about owners should be willing to operate at break-even. Who here can tell me why that would benefit fans?

[Dodecahedron]

You missed my point completely.

 

OK let’s go with sports should be fun and owners should be willing to invest with no financial benefit. Why does that not apply to players?

 

 

As I said, the owners are already billionaires. The players are not, for one. For another, putting together any team, sports or not, requires paying wages.

 

Let’s pretend for just a moment it makes sense that owners were willing to operate at break-even. Who here can tell me how that would benefit fans?

 

 

I suppose you could ask some Yankees fans this question.  

[Major League Ready]

 

You missed my point completely.

 

 

As I said, the owners are already billionaires. The players are not, for one. For another, putting together any team, sports or not, requires paying wages.

 

 

I suppose you could ask some Yankees fans this question.  

 

And you completely ignored my question. How would fans benefit by owners operating a break-even model?

[nicksaviking]

 

And you completely ignored my question. How would fans benefit by owners operating a break-even model?

 

I have stayed out of this discussion, but it's only 'break-even' if they look at it on a strict year-to-year basis.

 

The owners have all banked prior years and decades of earnings and increased equity in their investment that overall they aren't breaking even. These aren't publicly traded companies that have demanding shareholders requiring profits increase every single quarter . If they want to go out and spend more and take less profit for a year or several years they can. In fact plenty of teams regularly do, including the Twins.

[Major League Ready]

 

I have stayed out of this discussion, but it's only 'break-even' if they look at it on a strict year-to-year basis.

 

The owners have all banked prior years and decades of earnings and increased equity in their investment that overall they aren't breaking even. These aren't publicly traded companies that have demanding shareholders requiring profits increase every single quarter . If they want to go out and spend more and take less profit for a year or several years they can. In fact plenty of teams regularly do, including the Twins.

 

Now we are adapting the argument and those does not work for debating financial theories. Your argument is they could afford to break-even or take less profit in certain years. I would not argue that point. Actually, I would say this is followed to some degree today. Obviously, practices vary by team.

 

I am addressing the specific position that owners should approach management as if their billion dollar investment is a hobby or that they don’t need to take a profit because their team valuation has increased. For starters, valuation are a product of forecasted profit and sustainability. The model you suggest would not be quite as detrimental but a break-even philosophy as proposed here would virtually wipe out the valuation teams have built over decades.

 

More to the point, I keep asking what is the value to fans? The assertion many have made here that this practice would allow the Twins to acquire high end free agents we can’t afford now. Of course, that position is horribly flawed. If invested as suggested, roughly $1.2B would be invested in players. The number of players is not going to change. Therefore, the average salary would go up by roughly $1.25M. Buying power would not change at all. As a matter of fact, the bigger market teams earn more profit. Therefore, the revenue disparity which is the actual problem (not profit) would be increased and the bigger market teams would be have an even greater advantage.

[Thegrin]

Oderizzi ? Oderizzi ! What's going on with Jake Oderizzi ?  

[tony&rodney]

Odorizzi should get 3/$39-45 million. I hope he does for his sake, but I don'y envision the Twins signing him at those numbers. If nobody bites, perhaps the Twins circle back for a one year contract as high as $13-15 million. Falvine have their eyes elsewhere.

[rdehring]

 

Oderizzi ? Oderizzi ! What's going on with Jake Oderizzi ?  

I to, Thegrin, see more comments to this post and click on it every day anticipating some news on what is happening with Odo. And what do I find, more of the debate over who is more/less greedy, the billionaire owners or millionaire players. 

 

Can we please have some news regarding Odo? I for one would love the Twins to sign him as their #3 or #4 starter. Don't care if it is a one year, two year or three year deal...just get it done.

[DocBauer]

Skipped a few posts and realized I didn't miss anything at all. (My apologies to posters).

 

This thread is about Oddo.

 

We got him for nothing.

 

He was solid in 2018.

 

He was great in 2019 and earned an All Star invite, FWIW, and finished well after a dip.

 

His 2020 was a NIGHTMARE of injury but just nickel and dime stuff in retrospect. So he's just some 31yo "afterthought" at this point?

 

Forgetting Bauer, who is better out there on the FA market? NOBODY other than possibly Tanaka. And there is a serious debate as to the Yankees, or a west coast team or a return to Japan. Agent hype? Maybe.

 

Oddo is NOT a number 1 and on a contendjng team not a #2. But he is a very solid #3 To compete with Pineda and often pitches like he was a #2. What's not to like at $12M-ish?

[howeda7]

 

Odorizzi's 2nd half wasn't as bad as you might think. Take out the 4 IP, 9 ER clunker against the Yankees and he was 5-2 with a 2.98 ERA. He was actually very good in Aug/Sep, posting a 3.04 ERA with 65 K's in 50.1 innings. That being said, I don't know if he worth $13+ MM a season at this stage of his career.

Eh. You can play that game with anyone. Bottom line is he's good for about a 4-4.50 ERA and a lot of 5 and 6 inning starts. That's not horrible, but I'm not signing on for 3 years of it. If they could sign Odo for exactly what they just signed Happ for, give me Odo. But I doubt that was the case.

[The Wise One]

 

That’s not exactly an enlightened position.

 

1) We know the revenue with a high degree of accuracy. This is a very different case than many private companies and of course it’s crucial to understanding profitability.
2) We have a very accurate estimate of Player expense. This includes Salary + benefits and payroll tax, draft bonuses, etc. This expense represents 50+ percent of revenue and roughly 60% of operating cost.
3) Variable operating costs such as travel / hotel / meals / etc can also be estimated quite accurately.
4) Stadium cost is public record and stadium maintenance is another cost that can be estimated with a high degree of accuracy
5) Non-player personnel is the largest operating cost. All you would need is an employee roster with positions and you could estimate personnel cost with a fair degree of accuracy. I am not sure payroll taxes payments are probably public. This would also aid in estimating personnel costs with reasonable accuracy.
6) Equipment (training equipment / computers, etc) would be the hardest part to estimate. However, those costs are less than 1 percent of revenue.

 

So, we have a very accurate view of 100% of the revenue and over 60% of operating cost. If the other 40% can be estimated with 90% accuracy, and it can, that would mean we can estimate the Twins net profit to +/- $10M or 3% of revenue. So, it’s not an accurate portrayal to say the public knows nothing. It’s more accurate to say that the public elects to take an uniformed position.

When you have no clue about what is spent on your point number 5 you have no clue what expenses are for the team in terms of payroll. 

[The Wise One]

The cheap will sign early. The intermediate will sign when there is a great offer. The rest are playing a game of chicken. 

[Major League Ready]

 

When you have no clue about what is spent on your point number 5 you have no clue what expenses are for the team in terms of payroll. 

 

In 10 seconds of searching I found this information.  https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office

 

All of the Milb employees would take a modest amount of digging. Anyone with the proper database could estimate salary within +/- 10%. Given operating costs are roughly 1/3 of revenue, that provides an estimate with a variance of +/- 3.3% revenue. I am not certain but tax records are probably public information which would provide a very close estimate.

 

It's alot easier to complain and cry conspiracy or you just don't understand how to compile the estimate. Either way, MLB profits are not the great mystery some would like to assert.

[Battle ur tail off]

Give me Jake on a fair deal. Here's the problem I see. The top of his game in his prime he is a #3-4 starter. Everything from here on out with him will likely be a decline. 

 

Do we want 4/60 on him? I'm guessing that is close to what I will take. I'd rather they did 2/36-2/40 if he would take it today. I'd surely be offering it now before some of the bigger players make their run at him after all the better names get gobbled up.

[Thegrin]

No team made $$ last year and its doubtful many teams will make a profit in 2021.   Estimates like 2/40 for Odo, I feel are vastly over-speculated. (Is that a sentence?).  I doubt anyone will offer Odo anything close to that kind of $$. 

[rdehring]

 

No team made $$ last year and its doubtful many teams will make a profit in 2021.   Estimates like 2/40 for Odo, I feel are vastly over-speculated. (Is that a sentence?).  I doubt anyone will offer Odo anything close to that kind of $$. 

Not close enough to spring training for Jake to begin to panic. Give it another ten days to two weeks and his agent may call the Twins. Another one year deal for something between $10M and $15M. If at the lower end, would be a good deal for the Twins and acceptable for Jake. If near the higher number, a good deal for Jake and acceptable for the Twins if he can pitch like 2019.

[Dodecahedron]

The only pitchers I can think of who suddenly had a comedic amount and variety of injuries never pitched the same again. Erickson, Santana, and Pavano -- and all three of those guys were better than Odorizzi in their primes. Two of them were Odorizzi's age when it started.

 

If we ever catch a glance of Odorizzi wearing a bloody sock while still pitching 100% and appearing to be in no pain whatsoever, I will change my opinion.

[rdehring]

It's always good to come to these comments and not see that he has/is signing with someone else. Assuming the new schedule gets approved today by the players, there is another month for the Twins and Odorizzi to touch base and get something done. 

[The Wise One]

 

In 10 seconds of searching I found this information.  https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office

 

All of the Milb employees would take a modest amount of digging. Anyone with the proper database could estimate salary within +/- 10%. Given operating costs are roughly 1/3 of revenue, that provides an estimate with a variance of +/- 3.3% revenue. I am not certain but tax records are probably public information which would provide a very close estimate.

 

It's alot easier to complain and cry conspiracy or you just don't understand how to compile the estimate. Either way, MLB profits are not the great mystery some would like to assert.

Scouts, road crew, minor leagues, travel expenses, are just 4 things off the top of my head that I do not see accounted for on that list  Nor do I see wages listed for the people on the list you  posted. So how much does all those people get paid?  Anyone with a proper database you say. I will wait for you to post that link. When Forbes puts out revenue generation they include concessions. Nothing there on your list about the costs to generate that income either.8 people in new business development in the sales office is an interesting tidbit. There are 13 people in brand partnership. Lots of people, unkown potential for revenue. Go find the front office list under Ryan. It contains about 1/4 the people. 

 

When Bauer signs determines the market. Odo will be next up. If he is not way overpaid he is waiting for the market to be set. The Royals thus far are the only team to flinch by signing Minor to a 2 year deal.  Stroman took the QO. The stare down continues

[Brock Beauchamp]

In 10 seconds of searching I found this information. https://www.mlb.com/twins/team/front-office

 

All of the Milb employees would take a modest amount of digging. Anyone with the proper database could estimate salary within +/- 10%. Given operating costs are roughly 1/3 of revenue, that provides an estimate with a variance of +/- 3.3% revenue. I am not certain but tax records are probably public information which would provide a very close estimate.

 

It's alot easier to complain and cry conspiracy or you just don't understand how to compile the estimate. Either way, MLB profits are not the great mystery some would like to assert.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2020/05/29/mlb-owners-cry-hardship-while-forbes-shows-8-billion-in-team-profits-since-2010/amp/

 

Weird, the *only* people who bother to do the work that’s so easy in your eyes show *massive* profits over the past decade.

 

Feel free to do that easy work to contradict their findings.

[Major League Ready]

 

Scouts, road crew, minor leagues, travel expenses, are just 4 things off the top of my head that I do not see accounted for on that list  Nor do I see wages listed for the people on the list you  posted. So how much does all those people get paid?  Anyone with a proper database you say. I will wait for you to post that link. When Forbes puts out revenue generation they include concessions. Nothing there on your list about the costs to generate that income either.8 people in new business development in the sales office is an interesting tidbit. There are 13 people in brand partnership. Lots of people, unkown potential for revenue. Go find the front office list under Ryan. It contains about 1/4 the people. 

 

When Bauer signs determines the market. Odo will be next up. If he is not way overpaid he is waiting for the market to be set. The Royals thus far are the only team to flinch by signing Minor to a 2 year deal.  Stroman took the QO. The stare down continues

 

This is no big deal for anyone who has ever put together forecasts. There are numerous ways to acquire, including subscription services, employee lists. The databases I was referring to are used to estimate salaries. Things like travel also require an estimate to be built. These things are done routinely by businesses around the world. The fact you don’t know how does not mean it can’t be done.

 

You also missed a crucial piece. Two-thirds of the data (revenue & player salary) are known with a high degree of accuracy. This segment is roughly 1/3 of revenue. Therefore, we need only be +/- 10% on these estimates and our overall estimate is +/- 3.3%. BTW … +/- 10% would be considered sloppy work if done by an actual consulting firm. Perfect? No. However, the original statement I responded to was that someone suggested there is no way we can have any idea what teams are making.

 

I have no idea of the methodologies used by Forbes and others who estimate profitability. I do know that it can be done if someone cares to know, like the MLBPA for example.

[Major League Ready]

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2020/05/29/mlb-owners-cry-hardship-while-forbes-shows-8-billion-in-team-profits-since-2010/amp/

Weird, the *only* people who bother to do the work that’s so easy in your eyes show *massive* profits over the past decade.

Feel free to do that easy work to contradict their findings.

 

Apparently, you have forgotten what this discussion was about. The focus was not profit level but if it could be estimated accurately. Someone here said (quite forcefully) there is no way we can know what teams are making. In summary, I said it would not be that hard to come up with an accurate estimate. We know two-thirds of the variables with a very high degree of accuracy. The other 1/3 can be constructed within +/- 10%. Yet, you offer an estimate that would support profits can be estimated accurately as proof I was wrong.

 

Virtually all of the estimates I have seen over the years suggest EBITA of around 12%. That's good but certainly not exorbitant. The link you provided seems to suggest roughly the same. So, are you agreeing with me that we MLB profits can be estimated with reasonable accuracy?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Apparently, you have forgotten what this discussion was about. The focus was not profit level but if it could be estimated accurately. Someone here said (quite forcefully) there is no way we can know what teams are making. In summary, I said it would not be that hard to come up with an accurate estimate. We know two-thirds of the variables with a very high degree of accuracy. The other 1/3 can be constructed within +/- 10%. Yet, you offer an estimate that would support profits can be estimated accurately as proof I was wrong.

 

Virtually all of the estimates I have seen over the years suggest EBITA of around 12%. That's good but certainly not exorbitant. The link you provided seems to suggest roughly the same. So, are you agreeing with me that we MLB profits can be estimated with reasonable accuracy?

I never said they couldn't be estimated, I only said owners have profited massively over the past couple of decades and the Forbes numbers back that up.

 

And, as a fan, the numbers being bandied about every year make it increasingly difficult to support American professional sports. Our loyalty and entertainment is being milked for every penny possible, usually to the detriment of our own experiences, whether that be ticket prices, cable subscription prices, or the recent ownership power grab to change fundamental rules of the game and season just two weeks before Spring Training is expected to start.

 

All of this sucks and I hate it while simultaneously loving the game itself.

[Major League Ready]

 

I never said they couldn't be estimated, I only said owners have profited massively over the past couple of decades and the Forbes numbers back that up.

 

And, as a fan, the numbers being bandied about every year make it increasingly difficult to support American professional sports. Our loyalty and entertainment is being milked for every penny possible, usually to the detriment of our own experiences, whether that be ticket prices, cable subscription prices, or the recent ownership power grab to change fundamental rules of the game and season just two weeks before Spring Training is expected to start.

 

All of this sucks and I hate it while simultaneously loving the game itself.

 

I have no real disagreement with what you are saying. It just did not make sense you would have quoted me given my post was about the relative accuracy of forecasted profits. As far as I am concerned, if they are going to charge as much as they do for tickets, they should donate $1B year out of those revenues to charity and social causes.  

[The Wise One]

 

This is no big deal for anyone who has ever put together forecasts. There are numerous ways to acquire, including subscription services, employee lists. The databases I was referring to are used to estimate salaries. Things like travel also require an estimate to be built. These things are done routinely by businesses around the world. The fact you don’t know how does not mean it can’t be done.

 

You also missed a crucial piece. Two-thirds of the data (revenue & player salary) are known with a high degree of accuracy. This segment is roughly 1/3 of revenue. Therefore, we need only be +/- 10% on these estimates and our overall estimate is +/- 3.3%. BTW … +/- 10% would be considered sloppy work if done by an actual consulting firm. Perfect? No. However, the original statement I responded to was that someone suggested there is no way we can have any idea what teams are making.

 

I have no idea of the methodologies used by Forbes and others who estimate profitability. I do know that it can be done if someone cares to know, like the MLBPA for example.

Your estimates of accuracy needing to only be close is like an atomic bomb only needs to be close.  The difference in the high and low of your ranges when applied to the Forbes revenue guess is more than enough to pay for Odorizzi and fatten the bonus checks to the over 200 people in the front office. . One hundred percent accuracy should not be expected but understanding that + - 3 % is one huge difference to a club. 30 games of Odo vs 15 games more of each Smelzer and Dobnak . 

[terrydactyls]

After reading through this interesting debate, I only have one question. What happened to the discussion about Odorizzi? That seems to have disappeared.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

From MLB Trade Rumors today:

"...as of late January, Odorizzi was reportedly still in search of a three-year deal that’d pay him $12-14MM annually. SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson said in his podcast two weeks ago (audio link, around the 9:30 mark) that the Twins believed Paxton to be seeking a one-year deal in the $12MM range."

 

Hard to believe the Twins couldn't be seriously in on both of these guys if those are the amounts they're seeking.

 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Bauer has signed so Odo isn't too far behind

[Fatbat]

It would be nice to get Odo on a 1 year $15M deal but I bet he plays in S. Cali the next few years.

[Darius]

From MLB Trade Rumors today:

"...as of late January, Odorizzi was reportedly still in search of a three-year deal that’d pay him $12-14MM annually. SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson said in his podcast two weeks ago (audio link, around the 9:30 mark) that the Twins believed Paxton to be seeking a one-year deal in the $12MM range."

 

Hard to believe the Twins couldn't be seriously in on both of these guys if those are the amounts they're seeking.

Where’d Doogie get that bombshell? MLB Trade Rumors?

 

Dude clearly rips stuff off and throws “I’m hearing” on it to make it sound like he’s got some inside source.

 

Has he broken one story in his entire career? All he does is quote tweet and adds, basically, “yep, I knew that too.” He’ll occasionally add some sorry excuse for not breaking (I was driving or at my son’s basketball game, etc.). Then, he’ll spend the next 18 hours arguing with fans on Twitter.