Twins Extension Candidate: Kenta Maeda

Cody Christie · November 27, 2020

Teams can approach contracts in a multitude of ways. Do you sign a young player before arbitration to buy out some more years of team control? Do you extend a current player to keep him in the organization? Do you reward a player for an exceptional year on the field? It’s a balancing act to make the right choice for an organization and Kenta Maeda certainly provides an interesting choice for the Twins.Kenta Maeda

2020 Stats (11 games): 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 161 ERA+, 3.00 FIP, 1.6 WAR

Current Contract (Signed thru 2023, 8 years/$25 million)

Maeda is currently on an unbelievably team friendly contract. His base salary over the next three seasons is just north of $3 million. The Dodgers were able to sign him to this contract because their medical staff found “irregularities” during his physical. He can earn bonuses to increase the value of his contract including an annual roster bonus ($150,000), games started bonus (up to $6.5 million), and innings pitched bonus (up to $3.5 million). Even if he hits all these bonuses, he’s still a relative bargain for a top of the rotation starter.

Pros of Extending Now

One of the biggest benefits to extending now would be locking in some cost certainty moving forward while also rewarding one of baseball’s best pitchers last season. The Twins already have Maeda under team control through his age-35 season, so it’s tough to know what the team is thinking moving forward. Maeda should be paid like one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, but one must wonder if he can reproduce his 2020 numbers in a season where he appears in more than 11 games.

Cons of Extending Now

He will be 35-years old at the end of the contract and Minnesota will have a better idea if they want to keep him in their rotation moving forward. There’s no need to rush into an extension with Maeda, but the team might want to reward him for his impressive debut season with the Twins. Minnesota seemed to be able to get the best out of Maeda last year, but baseball’s financial future is clouded in uncertainty. No one knows what revenues will look like in the years ahead so a cost-controlled contract, like Maeda’s, is a valuable asset.

Possible Extension

Since he made his debut in 2016, FanGraphs estimates that Maeda has provided over $90 million in value to the Twins and the Dodgers. Last season alone, he was worth nearly $17 million even though he made fewer than 12 starts. Zack Wheeler’s free agent deal last off-season (5-years, $118 million) seems like a contract that Maeda could garner on the open market. Would the Twins be willing to alter Maeda’s current deal to give him more guaranteed money?

What do you think the Twins should do with Maeda? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Click here to view the article

Major League Ready · November 27, 2020

Love Maeda but extending a SP turning 35 at the end of their contract is a horrible idea. Maybe if they had Kershaw / Verlander or Scherzer but Maeda does not fit in that group.

strumdatjaguar · November 27, 2020

I agree. It’s unlikely Maeda will be among those very few players who succeed after 35 years of age

Doctor Gast · November 27, 2020

Maeda deserves more in 2020 than what he got. But I wouldn`t extend his contract, it`d be like extending Perez's contract after the first 60 games being a Twin. Let's see what happens after the league get used to him & even then I'd have to see what he has at 35 before offering him an extension

rdehring · November 27, 2020

Certainly not this winter. As good as he was, lets see how he does next year hoping it is a regular 162 games...or close to that. If he is again a top three vote getter for the Cy Young, then consider going out another year or two.

Would prefer going out and signing Odorizzi this winter.

mikelink45 · November 27, 2020

I join the consensus here - why would you do that. Very few pitchers are really good after 35 and the contracts for a 35 year old free agent are likely to be pretty reasonable.

Diesel · November 27, 2020

No, I love Kenta but he is under a long contract..... maybe boost his bonuses for his current contract? Hopefully the Twins learned from the Phil Hughes extension

SkyBlueWaters · November 27, 2020

If you could transfer Maeda's performance to that of an everyday player, maybe. But pitching excellence is notoriously prone to problems even with small injuries.

Love Maeda, he was the highlight in a bleak season and arguably even bleaker year. Hope he hits all the performance bonuses through 2023! But I wouldn't talk re-signing him this off-season.

Especially with all the present uncertainty.

SkyBlueWaters · November 27, 2020

Would prefer going out and signing Odorizzi this winter.

Amen. You can never have too much quality pitching.

DocBauer · November 28, 2020

I don't know many IP Maeda threw oversees, but he hit 175 his first season with the Dogers. While his performance and numbers the next 3yrs were good/excellent he was moved to the pen to help their run. As one of our top rotation pieces you want him to pitch 180 innings plus. There's absolutely no reason to believe he can't do that, especially with an occasional break here and there and no over-use, which the Twins seem to be good at preventing with thjs staff. And the guy I watched pitch last season seems to be more than capable of maintaining what we saw. So while he hasn't done it but once thus far, doesn't mean he can't. In fact, the Doger pen moves and the short 2020 season may actually prove beneficial to a 30yr old arm.

But the pragmatic part of me wants to see it first before I talk extension or any bump in his incentive clauses.

And then, as Diesel mentioned, there is the ghost of Hughes lingering. I don't think you extend a guy already under contract...or again bump his incentives...until you see more.

No to any re-work of his deal at this time.

TopGunn#22 · November 29, 2020

I think Maeda deserves more, but I agree with LA Vikes fan one of the reasons we gave up Graterol was Maeda's contract. I think he over-performed what any of us thought he could do last season, but he was always a good pitcher that the Dodgers took advantage of to avoid paying bonuses. It's not the fault of the Twins that he's so under paid. And we need that payroll flexibility to add more firepower to a team should be a contender.

Aerodeliria · November 29, 2020

Of course, I love Maeken, but pitchers are always a risk because of arm problems. FYI, he was a horse for the Hiroshima Carp (I'm sure he regularly threw around 120 pitches in games he was pitching well if he needed to). This has been par for the course in Japan. I once saw Yamaguchi-san (Toronto Blue Jays) throw over 140 pitches in a game.