Front Page: 4 Logical Trades That Would Improve the Twins' Rotation

[Mr. Brooks]

Boyd: 2 or 3 guys outside of our top 15.

 

Sale: We take on all of his contract. We trade them Javier and Homer Bailey.

 

Syndegaard: I'd trade them Buxton any day. He's injured a lot, right now actually. We can throw in a top 15-20 guy to get it done.

 

Archer: I make that trade if I'm the Twins.

If we're taking on all of Sale's contract, we better be getting prospects back, not sending them.

[Mr. Brooks]

...any ideas what it'd possibly take to get Gray from Colorado? How about Alcantara?

I'd say Graterol and Jeffers would be a good starting point for Gray.

 

For Alcantara, depending on if they want quality or quantity, you could offer Graterol straight up, or something like Rooker plus Gordon plus Javier plus Rortvedt.

[jorgenswest]

No way. Larnach is way too much to give up for Archer, IMO.

I agree. I also think the cost for any pitcher worthy of the rotation is going to be way too much.

 

If Archer has the ability to help the rotation and start a playoff game then the cost of Larnach is a small one. If Archer isn’t enough to help in the playoffs then I don’t want him at any cost.

[Mr. Brooks]

I agree. I also think the cost for any pitcher worthy of the rotation is going to be way too much.

 

If Archer has the ability to help the rotation and start a playoff game then the cost of Larnach is a small one. If Archer isn’t enough to help in the playoffs then I don’t want him at any cost.

It's not that black and white.

There is a range of possibilities, each with its own probability of happening. Not to mention several variables that are constantly fluid which change those probabilities in real time.

 

There is some probability that he becomes a guy that can help in the playoffs, some probability that he doesn't. So the price very much does matter.

[jorgenswest]

It's not that black and white.

There is a range of possibilities, each with its own probability of happening. Not to mention several variables that are constantly fluid which change those probabilities in real time.

There is some probability that he becomes a guy that can help in the playoffs, some probability that he doesn't. So the price very much does matter.

I want those probabilities of success high enough that it is going to take a top prospect.

 

Who is the best pitcher we can get for Larnach or Kirilloff? Can we do better than Archer? Can we get Ray? Is his one year better than Archer’s two?

 

I am not looking to win the deal. I am just looking to get the best pitcher and if the best pitcher I can get is Archer I would pay up.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wouldn’t give up top-10 prospects for aging pitchers.

No aging pitchers? Does that mean we could only trade for (Dorian) Gray?

[old nurse]

 

Why would we give the Mets Kirilloff when they only asked for Buxton?

They did not only ask for Buxton.  It was Buxton and prospects

[Rigby]

 

No aging pitchers? Does that mean we could only trade for (Dorian) Gray?

 

That's fairly Wilde conjecture.

[jhoffman]

Falvey & Lavine to BOSOX: you're not winning the East with the Yankees getting Cole, so we'll take on half of Price's entire contract if you give us Devers for Kepler and you guys figure out third base! Bosox get Bett's replacement for right and trade Betts to shed salary and gain prospects. Twins move Sano to 1st and get a great third baseman for a lot less money than an aging Donaldson, and one of our "can't trade" Kirilloff or Larnach prospects goes to right.

[Tomj14]

The only two trades I see the other team taking are possibly the Tigers and the Mets.

Sale is 30 years old and had 218 K's 147 innings and a WAR of 2.3 in basically his worst season since becoming a starting pitcher.

If the Twins could get him and no cash for Brusdar Graterol, C Ryan Jeffers, OF Gilberto Celestino, yes please, he is exactly what they Twins have needed for a long time.

 

But no chance Boston would take that offer, ZERO, if they really want to get rid of him, they could get twice that at the deadline even if he is only slightly better next year than this year or wait until he is a bit healthier and get more.

He is what I see happening, Boston keeps him and he is pretty good, around the deadline the Astros trade for him and they are back to their 3 big starting pitchers, the Twins and their fans are still talking about how great their prospects and just wait until 2022 when they are kicking butt. Sure Sano, Berrios, Buxton, Cruz, Odo, will be gone by then but you just wait it is going to be awesome. Maybe by then other teams will be willing to trade the Twins their best guys for a bunch of middle tier prospects.

[Mr. Brooks]

Falvey & Lavine to BOSOX: you're not winning the East with the Yankees getting Cole, so we'll take on half of Price's entire contract if you give us Devers for Kepler and you guys figure out third base! Bosox get Bett's replacement for right and trade Betts to shed salary and gain prospects. Twins move Sano to 1st and get a great third baseman for a lot less money than an aging Donaldson, and one of our "can't trade" Kirilloff or Larnach prospects goes to right.

Kepler isn't getting us Devers even if we take on ALL of Price's salary.

[Mr. Brooks]

The only two trades I see the other team taking are possibly the Tigers and the Mets.

Sale is 30 years old and had 218 K's 147 innings and a WAR of 2.3 in basically his worst season since becoming a starting pitcher.

If the Twins could get him and no cash for Brusdar Graterol, C Ryan Jeffers, OF Gilberto Celestino, yes please, he is exactly what they Twins have needed for a long time.

 

But no chance Boston would take that offer, ZERO, if they really want to get rid of him, they could get twice that at the deadline even if he is only slightly better next year than this year or wait until he is a bit healthier and get more.

He is what I see happening, Boston keeps him and he is pretty good, around the deadline the Astros trade for him and they are back to their 3 big starting pitchers, the Twins and their fans are still talking about how great their prospects and just wait until 2022 when they are kicking butt. Sure Sano, Berrios, Buxton, Cruz, Odo, will be gone by then but you just wait it is going to be awesome. Maybe by then other teams will be willing to trade the Twins their best guys for a bunch of middle tier prospects.

Sale has negative trade value if we're eating all of his contract, IMO.

[Doctor Gast]

 

I'd love to have Archer, if and only if, he can regain the form he had with Tampa Bay a few years back. What happened to him in Pittsburgh? It's like he's not the same pitcher any longer.

 

[Doctor Gast]

What I`ve heard Pittsburgh changed his pitching & it didn`t work out

[Tomj14]

 

Sale has negative trade value if we're eating all of his contract, IMO.

Good luck trading for any good to great pitcher if you think Cost makes them a negative trade value. Sure it would be great if the Sox ate the 50 million deferred money. But if he would have hit the open market this year instead of signing the extension I would believe some team would have paid him the 5/145 he got. Plus there is a chance if he returns to form he opts out after 2022. So it really would be 3/90. 

[howeda7]

 

Falvey & Lavine to BOSOX: you're not winning the East with the Yankees getting Cole, so we'll take on half of Price's entire contract if you give us Devers for Kepler and you guys figure out third base! Bosox get Bett's replacement for right and trade Betts to shed salary and gain prospects. Twins move Sano to 1st and get a great third baseman for a lot less money than an aging Donaldson, and one of our "can't trade" Kirilloff or Larnach prospects goes to right.

Give them Rosario and Larnach instead of Kepler and I'd do it.

[Mr. Brooks]

Good luck trading for any good to great pitcher if you think Cost makes them a negative trade value. Sure it would be great if the Sox ate the 50 million deferred money. But if he would have hit the open market this year instead of signing the extension I would believe some team would have paid him the 5/145 he got. Plus there is a chance if he returns to form he opts out after 2022. So it really would be 3/90.

He may or may not have gotten that much on the open market, but the signing team wouldn't also have to give up prospects in addition to all that cash.

 

Nobody is giving up legit prospects AND full market salary, hence the negative, or at best neutral trade value.

[Homerhankie]

How can we take any of this seriously when there are folks on here that won't give up Larnach for Archer. All credibility is lost IMO. Archer at worst would be a #3 with upside for a outfielder 2 years away. Do people just post absurd random takes on here sometimes? I am truly asking this question.

[Homerhankie]

How does Sale have negative trade value? Has to be random absurd comments.

[jorgenswest]

Trading Larnach for Archer is probably a deal you lose on. You probably also lose on giving Ryu a four year deal.

 

Those losses are relative though. The Twins have the salary space to absorb that loss. They also have the prospect capital at the corner OF spot to absorb that loss.

 

Find a trade partner looking for that bat first prospect and get the best starter you can. If it takes Larnach for Archer. Do it. Even if it feels like it is too much. With that trade there is high likelihood that the 2020 team wins more games.

 

I would go after Ray first and then offer him an extension he can’t refuse boosting his salary this year and locking in three more.

[Mr. Brooks]

How does Sale have negative trade value? Has to be random absurd comments.

Because he's already being paid at least what he's worth, and likely more, on the open market.

 

If you trade for Sale, you still have to pay that contract.

 

Think for a moment what gives a player "trade value".

It's not just their ability in a vacuum. It's how their projected ability compares to the contract cost relative to years of team control.

The more "underpaid" a player is, the more trade value they have. It's not controversial, it's common sense.

 

Would you say Sale is vastly underpaid going forward? Perhaps you think he is, the vast majority would disagree.

[Mr. Brooks]

How can we take any of this seriously when there are folks on here that won't give up Larnach for Archer. All credibility is lost IMO. Archer at worst would be a #3 with upside for a outfielder 2 years away. Do people just post absurd random takes on here sometimes? I am truly asking this question.

5.19 ERA/ 5.02 FIP is #3 at worst? Because that's factually Chris Archer at his worst.

[Mr. Brooks]

Trading Larnach for Archer is probably a deal you lose on. You probably also lose on giving Ryu a four year deal.

 

Those losses are relative though. The Twins have the salary space to absorb that loss. They also have the prospect capital at the corner OF spot to absorb that loss.

 

Find a trade partner looking for that bat first prospect and get the best starter you can. If it takes Larnach for Archer. Do it. Even if it feels like it is too much. With that trade there is high likelihood that the 2020 team wins more games.

 

I would go after Ray first and then offer him an extension he can’t refuse boosting his salary this year and locking in three more.

If Archer is the best you can get for Larnach then you just keep Larnach, IMO.

 

I'm not saying you have to "win" every trade, but you don't want to be in a situation where you're taking almost all the risk in the deal.

You're essentially eliminating any upside that Archer has if you trade Larnach for him. At that price he HAS to be pretty close to Archer at his absolute best.

No thanks.

He's a reclamation project, the cost should reflect that.

[jorgenswest]

If Archer is the best you can get for Larnach then you just keep Larnach, IMO.

I'm not saying you have to "win" every trade, but you don't want to be in a situation where you're taking almost all the risk in the deal.

You're essentially eliminating any upside that Archer has if you trade Larnach for him. At that price he HAS to be pretty close to Archer at his absolute best.

No thanks.

He's a reclamation project, the cost should reflect that.

Reading through this thread I think you are suggesting the Twins should not aggressively pursue starting in pitching in trade. By aggressive I mean pursue an available pitcher they feel can help and then beat the offers of other teams in a deal that would likely be seen as an overpay.

 

I don’t see anyone in free agency that will help. It needs to b a trade but maybe Archer isn’t playoff caliber.

 

How about Ray or any pitcher you might prefer more that has been seen as available? What far would you go to get Ray or other identified pitcher?

 

I am suggesting the Twins overpay starting from their strength in outfield prospects in order to win a deal for a playoff caliber starting pitcher.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Reading through this thread I think you are suggesting the Twins should not aggressively pursue starting in pitching in trade. By aggressive I mean pursue an available pitcher they feel can help and then beat the offers of other teams in a deal that would likely be seen as an overpay.

I don’t see anyone in free agency that will help. It needs to b a trade but maybe Archer isn’t playoff caliber.

How about Ray or any pitcher you might prefer more that has been seen as available? What far would you go to get Ray or other identified pitcher?

I am suggesting the Twins overpay starting from their strength in outfield prospects in order to win a deal for a playoff caliber starting pitcher.

 

If this was a smart strategy, presumably we would see teams trying it more often. Yet, these sorts of deals are extremely rare. All over the league, clubs have needs at various positions, yet they almost never try to fill them by overpaying with prospects in the off-season.

 

Anytime you demand the Twins do something that almost never happens, you should probably wonder about why that might be.

[Mr. Brooks]

Reading through this thread I think you are suggesting the Twins should not aggressively pursue starting in pitching in trade. By aggressive I mean pursue an available pitcher they feel can help and then beat the offers of other teams in a deal that would likely be seen as an overpay.

 

I don’t see anyone in free agency that will help. It needs to b a trade but maybe Archer isn’t playoff caliber.

 

How about Ray or any pitcher you might prefer more that has been seen as available? What far would you go to get Ray or other identified pitcher?

 

I am suggesting the Twins overpay starting from their strength in outfield prospects in order to win a deal for a playoff caliber starting pitcher.

I'm fine with aggresive.

To me, Larnach for Archer goes beyond aggressive into reckless territory.

Look at his numbers last year, he's a total reclamation project. Without vast improvement, he's no better than the Thorpe/ Smeltzer/ Dobnak crowd.

Larnach is a borderline elite prospect. Fangraphs update has him above Kirilloff.

I'd want something closer to a sure thing if I'm trading Larnach.

[jorgenswest]

If this was a smart strategy, presumably we would see teams trying it more often. Yet, these sorts of deals are extremely rare. All over the league, clubs have needs at various positions, yet they almost never try to fill them by overpaying with prospects in the off-season.

 

Anytime you demand the Twins do something that almost never happens, you should probably wonder about why that might be.

Demand? I am not that emotionally attached. I will follow the team and baseball whether they add pitching or not.

 

I think the Twins are going to need to do something rare to acquire starting pitching, Given the alternatives I suggest the Twins be willing to give up from their best hitting prospects in order to find that pitching. Is there any other way right now?

 

Not a demand though. I will be following the same either way.

[Aerodeliria]

I don't think you can count on getting much 'bang' from trading Buxton to be honest. What can you say? He has potential? Everyone knows that, but until you've put together a year of tremendous play, I doubt teams are going to consider him to be very valuable as trade bait. You'd get a lot more interest in Rosario IMHO.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Demand? I am not that emotionally attached. I will follow the team and baseball whether they add pitching or not.

I think the Twins are going to need to do something rare to acquire starting pitching, Given the alternatives I suggest the Twins be willing to give up from their best hitting prospects in order to find that pitching. Is there any other way right now?

Not a demand though. I will be following the same either way.

 

I'll say "advocate for" if that sounds better to you, the wording isn't the point. There are a number of teams that have their eyes on contending, yet have significant gaps in their roster. These teams should have just as much reason as the Twins to do what you suggest (whether for SP or another position).

 

But they don't do it. Even when they have the payroll to theoretically compensate for a lack of young players, still they cling to their top prospects. The reason is that inexpensive young talent is the most important asset in the game, even for big market clubs, let alone mid-to-small market ones. 

 

The most successful deals (for the acquirer) is when the veteran is underrated. That was the key for the Astros, with respect to Verlander and Cole. On a smaller scale, Odorizzi is also a good example. The other side of it being franchise-crippling moves like Pittsburgh getting Archer. 

[USAFChief]

I'll say "advocate for" if that sounds better to you, the wording isn't the point. There are a number of teams that have their eyes on contending, yet have significant gaps in their roster. These teams should have just as much reason as the Twins to do what you suggest (whether for SP or another position).

 

But they don't do it. Even when they have the payroll to theoretically compensate for a lack of young players, still they cling to their top prospects. The reason is that inexpensive young talent is the most important asset in the game, even for big market clubs, let alone mid-to-small market ones.

 

The most successful deals (for the acquirer) is when the veteran is underrated. That was the key for the Astros, with respect to Verlander and Cole. On a smaller scale, Odorizzi is also a good example. The other side of it being franchise-crippling moves like Pittsburgh getting Archer.

so why were you scolding those of us who were so disappointed when all the FA starter possibilities went elsewhere?

 

It's like we could anticipate the predicament the Twins now find themselves in. Trying to complete a difficult trade, if you can even find one, and giving the other team all the leverage. Or taking on similar salary to signing a free agent, only for a worse pitcher who the other team wants to dump.

 

One more time: there is no path to recovery this offseason. Its blown.